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General Interest > Philosophy, Sociology & Psychology
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Re: i don't think aliens exist [Re: Huehuecoyotl]
    #3043137 -

> While life is likely elsewhere, without understanding the underlying mechanism, it is impossible to extrapolate from a sample size of one.

It is not at all impossible to extrapolate from a sample size of one... however, the confidence of said extrapolation will obviously be very small.


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Just another spore in the wind.

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Re: i don't think aliens exist [Re: Seuss]
    #3044437 -

Extrapolation is NOT the same as guessing.

Here is a sample size of one example:

The next number in the sequence after 54 is: ? (Hint: everyone will get this wrong because of insufficient information from a single sample. Basically, it could be ANY number at all!)


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The proof is in the pudding.

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Re: i don't think aliens exist [Re: Swami]
    #3044594 -

Suess and swami,

The universe isn't just one linear sequence of events. It's a multitude of many overlapping and inter woven moving in all directions.

For example; where is it that friday can come before thursday?


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Ahuwale ka nane huna.

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Re: i don't think aliens exist [Re: Seuss]
    #3044716 -

> Extrapolation is NOT the same as guessing.

Correct.  I have had more statistics, operations research, mathmatical methods, and related classes than any sane person should be subjected to endure.  I am looking at the multitude of different life forms we have in our little corner of space as a basis for extrapolation.  We have found life in 'alien environments' here on earth, such as the bottom of the ocean, or in rocks under tens of thousands of pounds of pressure, even in the vacuum of space eating away at our satalites.  We have also found organic (carbon based) molecules in space dust, comets, etc.

Back to extrapolation, you are correct, two points are needed at a minimum to have a larger than zero confidence interval (i.e. not a guess).  But in the case of other life in the universe, just because we cannot observe (due to distance, or timing) a sample doesn't mean that it does not exist.

We think that there are aproximately 10^21 (1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000) stars in the universe.  If only 1 in 1,000-billion star systems (not planets, stars) were to have life, that would mean around 10 billion star systems have life.  We are talking huge number here... similiar to the national debt.  Now factor in the age of the universe and the numbers truely explode.  Of course, there is no way to know for certain what the ratio of life to stars in the universe is... could be 1 to 10^21, which would make us one-of-a-kind.

> where is it that friday can come before thursday

On the calendar hanging on the wall?

>  [the universe is] a multitude of many overlapping and inter woven moving in all directions.

Glad you cleared that up... I will sleep better at night knowing that all the astronomers in the world are wrong... that the universe isn't expanding, but rather morphing into various overlapping, interwoven shapes.  Have you published your findings?  You should speak with Nancy Lieder, she can probably help you out.

You migh want to check out the site www.badastronomy.com when you get a chance... :wink:


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Just another spore in the wind.

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Re: i don't think aliens exist [Re: Seuss]
    #3044796 -

Notice that I added "without understanding the underly mechanism".

If the conditions for life were "only" a certain temperature and pressure range and a specific chemical soup mixture, then I would agree that similar conditions are very likely to occur somewhere else. But much more data is needed about the origin of life on Earth, never mind other systems, BEFORE a logical case can be made for extra-terrestrial life.

Is it logical to assume there MUST be another Swami or Seuss floating around in the universe because of its vastness? No, because we are unique (sort of...). Life may also be a unique phenomenon.


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The proof is in the pudding.

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Re: i don't think aliens exist [Re: Seuss]
    #3044797 -

The dictionary!

And I do beleive the universe contracts and expands with each expansive cycle broadening the one before.

Typically, it's not me following science but science following me.


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Ahuwale ka nane huna.

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Re: i don't think aliens exist [Re: Swami]
    #3044837 -

> The dictionary!

Darn, now I gotta turn my calendar back right-side-up.  *sigh*  :wink:

> Is it logical to assume there MUST be another Swami or Seuss floating around in the universe because of its vastness?

Hmm... I will have to think on this one; not something I have ever really considered.  I suppose one would have to calculate the possible premutations availble within our genetics, the likelyhood of a planet somewhere having a ecosystem the same as ours, etc.  We would have to make assumptions for a lot of variables, which renders the exersise fairly pointless, but we should be able to come up with an idea of the probability of the two of us existing somewhere else.  I would suspect such a number/probability would be extremly small.  :grin:

Even small probabilities can yield measurable results when enough events are considered, such as in the case of alpha decay.


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Just another spore in the wind.

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Re: i don't think aliens exist [Re: Huehuecoyotl]
    #3049224 -

Whats so wrong with just saying: "I dont know" with some questions??!! This is something that nobody  can say either does or doesnt exist. Because once you say one thing, theres something that can always contradict it. Leaving it unanswered. Simple as that!!!  :cool:


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When it comes
I'll know, I know
Just take my clothes and leave
And I'll be gone



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Re: i don't think aliens exist [Re: Swami]
    #3049571 -

"s it logical to assume there MUST be another Swami or Seuss floating around in the universe because of its vastness? No, because we are unique (sort of...). Life may also be a unique phenomenon."

You have just made a good case for the existance of the Christian God.

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Re: i don't think aliens exist [Re: Seuss]
    #3050132 -

I think alien life exists, but whether or not they have visited us, I have no idea. As far as abductions go, they have been reproduced by using electricity to stimulate the brain, and have also been reported during sleep-paralysis. I have seen beings that appear very similar to the aliens people report seeing during many of my trips, so I guess they could've hallucinated them, but on the other hand if people started tripping out I would think that they would assume they were going nuts or dying, not seeing UFO's and aliens. Tripping is way more then then just seeing one or two random things, and I figure that the changes in brain chemistry during such an episode would create a full-blown trip, and just a random space ship or alien.

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Re: i don't think aliens exist [Re: gettinjiggywithit]
    #3064144 -

gettinjiggywithit said:
I will see if the discovery channel has a web site and offers videos of their shows. It may even have been NOVA, it was aired in the last year and I will search around. It ran side by side with a show on black holes where science now thinks they have enough evidense to prove that black holes exist at the center of every galaxy. Discovery or Nova, the show gave names and did not black out the NASA personel that were speaking on the subject.


any word on this?


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I am the devil and I am just like you

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Re: i don't think aliens exist [Re: KingOftheThing]
    #3064231 -

i belive aliens exist somewhere in the universe, but i dont belive they have ever visited here. if they had mastered intergalactic space travel, and traveled hundreds of light years to get here, why would they just fly around making crop circles, scaring people, and giving out anal probes? It seems like a waste of time to travel so far for such pointless reasons.

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Re: i don't think aliens exist [Re: mark330ci]
    #3065273 -

Crop circles are 99 percent imo man made.

I will tell you why they are visiting here, they want to keep an eye on us. Why? Because soon we will be able to keep an eye on them!

Our government/military openly admits to being 1-30 years ahead of the commercial sector, they are possibly and we as a whole (human race) are getting closer and closer to intersteller travel ourselves.

When this happens the higher life forms out there will want to set down some guidelines on what we can and can't do whilst transcending the universe!


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Re: i don't think aliens exist [Re: Ego Death]
    #3068132 -

> Crop circles are 99 percent imo man made.

So the crops get tired and take a nap the other 1% of the time?


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Just another spore in the wind.

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General Interest > Philosophy, Sociology & Psychology
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