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Unfolding Nature Shop: Unfolding Nature: Being in the Implicate Order

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Re: Mexican Nationalism, protectionism, and Catholicism: what leftists hate [Re: qman]
    #25679759 -

This is interesting.  It comes from the Economic Policy Institute (EPI) whom I've grown to respect very much for their in depth analysis of economic issues:

Aluminum tariffs have led to a strong recovery in employment, production, and investment in primary aluminum and downstream industries
Quote:
...after the Section 232 tariffs were imposed on aluminum (and steel) on March 8, 2018, the domestic producers of both primary aluminum and downstream aluminum products have made commitments to create thousands of jobs, invest billions of dollars in aluminum production, and substantially increase domestic production.


People like koods might call me a Trump lover or other such nonsense, but I'm one who accepts the facts no matter which side they favor.

Feel free to debate this article if you disagree.  As always, the EPI goes into a lot of detail explaining how they reached this conclusion.


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.

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Re: Mexican Nationalism, protectionism, and Catholicism: what leftists hate [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #25679825 -

So we've essentially revived an almost dead aluminum industry, but I'm not convinced that benefits the average american. None of those figures helped persuade me of that. How has it done so?

We have more jobs, but do those jobs pay more? Are these high paying skilled jobs or low paying jobs? It didn't elaborate any more than to say what industry they are in which doesn't tell much.

The other factor I was looking for and did not see addressed is how does this affect consumers? For instance we could have a 5% cost increase on aluminum related goods to consumers, 1 million new jobs that pay less than 15$/hr with a few thousand higher paying jobs, while billions go to the oligarchs that control this new aluminum industry. Thus any "economic growth" here only results in us being poorer and a further increase in the wealth gap. How does this benefit you or I?

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Re: Mexican Nationalism, protectionism, and Catholicism: what leftists hate [Re: krypto2000]
    #25679844 -

krypto2000 said:
We have more jobs, but do those jobs pay more?


Do they pay more than what?  Someone who is unemployed?

The benefit is that the jobs are coming back.  Trump isn't doing anything that I'm aware of to ensure these people are paid what they really deserve.

But more jobs seems better than fewer jobs.  :shrug:


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.

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Re: Mexican Nationalism, protectionism, and Catholicism: what leftists hate [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #25679890 -

And how much more does aluminum cost than before?

That article also says “made commitments”

That isn’t the same as saying there are thousands of new jobs


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NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”

Edited by koods (12/14/18 11:39 PM)

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Re: Mexican Nationalism, protectionism, and Catholicism: what leftists hate [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #25679961 -

Hmm.. that's a good question, I'm not sure if what I'm thinking has a hole in it or not.

I am viewing it more abstractly and trying to think of broader possible implications. For instance we both know a recession is coming, newly created jobs are logically more resilient than older jobs (you don't create a job/market if it doesn't seem like it's going to be sustainable and being more recent you're better able to predict that).

So if you view it as a process rather than only taking into account what it looks like right now and go forward or back these jobs are effectively replacing the jobs that we have lost or will lose. Do you think that's a flawed way to view it?

Edit: And going back while the people may have been unemployed what did they do before that? If they were making $55K and lost their job in 2011 and now make 20$k at one of these new jobs that results in wealth consolidation.

Edited by krypto2000 (12/15/18 12:49 AM)

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Re: Mexican Nationalism, protectionism, and Catholicism: what leftists hate [Re: koods]
    #25679970 -

koods said:
And how much more does aluminum cost than before?

That article also says “made commitments”

That isn’t the same as saying there are thousands of new jobs


Did it? I tried to find that out but it lead me to believe per the chart that those were actual jobs reported by the dept of labor...

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Re: Mexican Nationalism, protectionism, and Catholicism: what leftists hate [Re: koods] * 1
    #25679978 -

koods said:
And how much more does aluminum cost than before?


Given that the aluminum tariffs are 10 percent, I'd say it's a pretty good guess that aluminum will cost no more than 10 percent more, or else we'd keep buying from abroad.

koods said:
That article also says “made commitments”

That isn’t the same as saying there are thousands of new jobs


Who said there are already thousands of new jobs?  The article said there are commitments for thousands of new jobs.


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.

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Re: Mexican Nationalism, protectionism, and Catholicism: what leftists hate [Re: krypto2000]
    #25679981 -

krypto2000 said:
I am viewing it more abstractly and trying to think of broader possible implications. For instance we both know a recession is coming, newly created jobs are logically more resilient than older jobs (you don't create a job/market if it doesn't seem like it's going to be sustainable and being more recent you're better able to predict that).

So if you view it as a process rather than only taking into account what it looks like right now and go forward or back these jobs are effectively replacing the jobs that we have lost or will lose. Do you think that's a flawed way to view it?


I think that's fair - we lost those jobs, and now they're coming back (did I understand your question correctly?)

koods said:
Edit: And going back while the people may have been unemployed what did they do before that? If they were making $55K and lost their job in 2011 and now make 20$k at one of these new jobs that results in wealth consolidation.


Again, I'm not arguing that people will be paid fairly, or what they were paid before - I'm not aware of anything Trump is doing to help worker wages.  I'm only saying more jobs are better than fewer jobs.


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.

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Re: Mexican Nationalism, protectionism, and Catholicism: what leftists hate [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #25679996 -

I don't think more jobs is necessarily better though, there are more factors to consider.

I would rather see 20 new jobs paying 60k than 60 new jobs paying 8k. I would also rather see 20 new jobs with people making 30k while the owner makes 250k than 60 new jobs with people making 30k while the owner makes 15MM.

Edit: I'd rather have 1 new job in fast food than 4000 new jobs at the TSA.

Edited by krypto2000 (12/15/18 01:15 AM)

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Re: Mexican Nationalism, protectionism, and Catholicism: what leftists hate [Re: krypto2000]
    #25680037 -

krypto2000 said:
I would rather see 20 new jobs paying 60k than 60 new jobs paying 8k.


And I might agree with you, but there's not a choice of fewer higher paying jobs as an alternative.

krypto2000 said:
I would also rather see 20 new jobs with people making 30k while the owner makes 250k than 60 new jobs with people making 30k while the owner makes 15MM.


Hmmm, I'm not sure how that'd be better.

But using your second example of 60 new jobs with people making 30k while the owner makes $15M (total salary of 60x30k + 15M = $16.8M), I'd much rather see 60 people making $260k while the owner makes 1.2M (60x260k + 1.2M also equals $16.8M in salary).


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.

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Re: Mexican Nationalism, protectionism, and Catholicism: what leftists hate [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #25680066 -

Yeah, I agree with the 1.2MM too and 15MM is somewhat of a gray area for me as thats not especially politically influencial while still being a lot of money. It's hard to draw a line so I was trying to aim for the outliers, although by limiting examples to only double digit job numbers I couldn't really say the owners made billions.

Is there not a choice though? I mean we don't have a direct choice, but it's a democracy. We can theoretically make any choice we want if we can get those gunky old wheels turning. We did not have to impliment tarrifs or create this industry over another. Shit, we could have restarted this industry in a way that it was employee owned even. I mean hell may have frozen over first, but we could do it.

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Re: Mexican Nationalism, protectionism, and Catholicism: what leftists hate [Re: krypto2000] * 1
    #25680713 -

Tariffs are a left wing approach. Trump is a conglomeration of ideas that range the political spectrum. Killing the free trade deals, and protectionist policies like tariffs generally do not get support from conservatives.

I would imagine that jobs in the aluminum industry are going to pay more than minimum wage. Probably significantly more.

I do wonder what the overall implications for the economy are. At the end of the day, Aluminum is more expensive, but all of the money to purchase that aluminum stays in the US.


--------------------
"It is no measure of good health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society," - Jiddu Krishnamurti
FARTS
"No my dog won't bite you, tho it had the right to. You ought to give him credit, cuz he knows I woulda let him" - Modest Mouse (And Wooof!)
Every one of you should see this video.


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Re: Mexican Nationalism, protectionism, and Catholicism: what leftists hate [Re: Bigbadwooof]
    #25680794 -

Tariffs suck. F.A.R.T.S. is the answer

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Re: Mexican Nationalism, protectionism, and Catholicism: what leftists hate [Re: Bigbadwooof] * 1
    #25680880 -

Bigbadwooof said:
Tariffs are a left wing approach. Trump is a conglomeration of ideas that range the political spectrum. Killing the free trade deals, and protectionist policies like tariffs generally do not get support from conservatives.

I would imagine that jobs in the aluminum industry are going to pay more than minimum wage. Probably significantly more.

I do wonder what the overall implications for the economy are. At the end of the day, Aluminum is more expensive, but all of the money to purchase that aluminum stays in the US.


Considering there is almost no bauxite mining in the US, that is false.

I also wonder what this does to the cost of electricity. Aluminum production is the largest single industrial consumer of electricity in the world. One of the main reasons Canada produces a lot of aluminum is they have cheap hydro power. The cost of producing aluminum in the US is higher because we don’t have cheap renewable electricity. American aluminum is more expensive and the extra demand for electrical production raises the cost of electricity to consumers.

Fun fact: 4% of the worldwide total production of electricity is used to convert bauxite into aluminum. The only reason aluminum is cheap is because it can be recycled easily. Never throw away aluminum products. Always recycle.


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NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”

Edited by koods (12/15/18 03:14 PM)

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Re: Mexican Nationalism, protectionism, and Catholicism: what leftists hate [Re: koods]
    #25681051 -

^ yep

I worked at the kitimat revitalization project restoring the rio tinto aluminum smelter. They said it used something like the equivalent of half of all of vancouver city's electricity per day or something crazy. Built in kitimat because there is a massive hydro-dam near by.


--------------------

Edited by sh4d0ws (12/15/18 04:12 PM)

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Re: Mexican Nationalism, protectionism, and Catholicism: what leftists hate [Re: koods]
    #25682051 -

Good post. I did not know any of that.


--------------------
"It is no measure of good health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society," - Jiddu Krishnamurti
FARTS
"No my dog won't bite you, tho it had the right to. You ought to give him credit, cuz he knows I woulda let him" - Modest Mouse (And Wooof!)
Every one of you should see this video.


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Re: Mexican Nationalism, protectionism, and Catholicism: what leftists hate [Re: Bigbadwooof]
    #25683544 -

I just realized a major flaw in that studies employment data. It compares projected employment due to the tariffs to actual change in employment irrespective of the tariffs. In other words assumes any changes since the tariffs must be a result of the tariffs and that eithout the tariffs no changes in employment would have occurred. In reality both the predictions and the actual changes could be true.

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Re: Mexican Nationalism, protectionism, and Catholicism: what leftists hate [Re: krypto2000]
    #25683969 -

krypto2000 said:
I just realized a major flaw in that studies employment data. It compares projected employment due to the tariffs to actual change in employment irrespective of the tariffs. In other words assumes any changes since the tariffs must be a result of the tariffs and that eithout the tariffs no changes in employment would have occurred. In reality both the predictions and the actual changes could be true.


I don't understand your argument.  What caused the projected increase in aluminum production if not the tariffs?


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.

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Re: Mexican Nationalism, protectionism, and Catholicism: what leftists hate [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #25683992 -

I'm only referring to the employment numbers, I'm not disputing that (although I am questioning how the aluminum being produced here at a higher cost actually benefits us).

It's reasonable to conclude the few thousand jobs directly related to aluminum manufacturing came from the tariffs, but who's to say where the other 1.4 million jobs came from.

To put it another way it was projected we would lose 300,000 jobs because of the tariffs, yet we've gained 1.4 million jobs overall since they were enacted, thus the article concludes the tariffs had a positive impact on jobs.

It's entirely possible however that we would have gained 1.7 million jobs with or without the tariffs, and that we did in actuality lose 300,000 bringing the net gain down to 1.4.

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Re: Mexican Nationalism, protectionism, and Catholicism: what leftists hate [Re: krypto2000]
    #25684015 -

Yeah it means 300k fewer jobs


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NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”

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