Quote:

Impact of automation puts up to 85% of jobs in developing countries at risk


February 8, 2016
http://www.kurzweilai.net/impact-of-automation-puts-up-to-85-of-jobs-in-developing-countries-at-risk


A new report from the Oxford Martin School and Citi considers the risks of job automation to developing countries, estimated to range from 55% in Uzbekistan to 85% in Ethiopia — a substantial share in major emerging economies, including China and India (77% and 69% respectively).

The report, Technology at Work v2.0: The Future Is Not What It Used to Be, builds on 2013 research by Oxford Martin School’s Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne, who found that nearly half of U.S. jobs could be at risk of computerization (as KurzweilAI reported), and on the first Technology at Work report, published in 2015.

The Future is Not What is Used to Be provides in-depth analysis of the vulnerabilities of countries and cities to job automation, explores what automation will mean for traditional models of economic growth, and considers how governments can prepare for the potentially disruptive impacts of job automation on society.

Key areas of analysis in the report include:

• While manufacturing productivity has traditionally enabled developing countries to close the gap with richer countries, automation is likely to impact negatively on their ability to do this, and new growth models will be required.
  
• The impact of automation may be more disruptive for developing countries, due to lower levels of consumer demand and limited social safety nets. With automation and developments in 3D printing likely to drive companies to move manufacturing closer to home, developing countries risk :premature de-industrialisation.”
  
• Even within countries, the impact of automation will lead to the divergence of the fortunes of different cities. While a number of cities may have been affected by, for example, offshoring of manufacturing in the past, the expanding scope of automation now means that even low-end service jobs are at risk, making a different set of cities vulnerable.
  
• Risk of total U.S. employment at risk continues since the 2013 study at about 47 percent. Cities in the U.S. most at risk included Fresno and Las Vegas; least at risk include Boston, Washington DC, and New York. In relatively skilled cities, such as Boston, only 38% of jobs are susceptible to automation. In Fresno, by contrast, the equivalent figure is 54%. The computing revolution has been closely linked to the fortunes of U.S. cities, with cities that became centers of information technology gaining a comparative advantage in new job creation that has persisted since. The tendency of skilled jobs to cluster in initially skilled cities has, since the computer revolution of the 1980s, contributed to increased income disparities between cities.
  
• Digital industries have not created many new jobs. Since 2000, just 0.5% of the US workforce has shifted into new technology industries, most of which are directly associated with digital technologies.
  
• The largest number of job openings in the coming decades is projected to be in the health sector, which is expected to add more than 4 million new jobs in the U.S. from 2012 to 2022.
  

Most investors by surveyed by Citi feel automation poses a major challenge to societies and policymakers, but are optimistic that automation and technology will help to boost productivity over time, and believe that investment in education will be the most effective policy response to the potential negative impacts of automation.

“When it comes to cities, the risk is clear: those that specialize in skills that are easily automatable stand to lose, while the ones that manage the industrial renewal process, particularly by creating new industries, stand to gain,” said Frey, Co-Director of the Oxford Martin Programme on Technology and Employment, and Oxford Martin Citi Fellow.

Kathleen Boyle, Citi GPS Managing Editor, acknowledges that mindsets need to change, saying: “A key challenge of the 21st century will be recognizing that accelerating technological change is going to affect both employment and society.

“The magnitude of the challenge ahead needs to be recognized and an agenda set for policy to address issues such as educational needs, to minimize the negative affect of automation on workers. And it is crucial that this conversation starts now.”

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deezdelta said:

This is where I start preaching on how maybe its time to rethink our seemingly un-considered need to create higher levels of technology but I won't. Just watch the Terminator movies and see for yourself.

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DividedQuantum said:

deezdelta said:

This is where I start preaching on how maybe its time to rethink our seemingly un-considered need to create higher levels of technology but I won't. Just watch the Terminator movies and see for yourself.

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But because it's so profitable they won't stop.

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manaloa said:

I've thought of this for many years OP. It definitely is going to happen, and it's going to happen in the next few decades I imagine. The only solution I can think of is that we will have to go full on Communist. Every citizen will have to be given a living 'wage'; enough to feed, clothe, and house the individual, I imagine other services like healthcare, education, transportation, and communication will be paid for by the government/corporations as well.

From there, I imagine the only way to get ahead for the common man will be to create art. Considering machines will be doing everything else, I can see that artists would still have a venue to make more money than the average person. So essentially their will likely be only a few classes of people.

> The Wealthy, who own everything
> The Government, aka the Wealthy's lackeys
> The Artists, those who make various forms of art/entertainment for the masses
> The Criminals, those who continue to disobey the law to make money
> The Mechanics, those who oversee and repair the machines
> The Dependents, 90% of the population who are 100% dependent on the system

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manaloa said:

There will probably be a minority of workers as well for the select few jobs that are too difficult/expensive to automate.

In all honesty it doesn't sound to be that bad of a future. As long as the majority has enough to live. I imagine drugs will be legal by that time as well, or at the very least the drugs we know about. No doubt their will be gnarlier drugs made in the future that the government will make illegal.

I think the future has potential to be quite interesting.

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"May you live in interesting times"

manaloa said:

They say times of peace have no history.

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deezdelta said:

I want to witness some real significant goddamn history before I die.

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manaloa said:

I read it in a book about Hawaii history. There is a gap of history that spans hundreds of years in which the only passed down knowledge of those times were of lineage. Then seemingly out of nowhere Hawaiian history erupts alongside various battles and clashing tribes and various dramas.

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manaloa said:

They say times of peace have no history.

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Well that was a Chinese curse. I thought it was appropriate.

Jokeshopbeard said:

deezdelta said:

I want to witness some real significant goddamn history before I die.

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So do I. I wanna witness the human race getting its ass whooped for all its ridiculous fuckery.

As you can tell, I'm not optimistic about the direction we're heading in, as a whole.

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Icelander said:

Jokeshopbeard said:

deezdelta said:

I want to witness some real significant goddamn history before I die.

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So do I. I wanna witness the human race getting its ass whooped for all its ridiculous fuckery.

As you can tell, I'm not optimistic about the direction we're heading in, as a whole.

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Same .

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