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Bush is in deep trouble: An analysis of the post-convention Zogby poll
Bush is in deep trouble: An analysis of the post-convention Zogby poll by John Zogby and Christopher Conroy Link to Article The most recent Zogby poll shows deeper trouble for President George W. Bush beyond just the horserace. Mr. Bush has fallen in key areas while Senator John Kerry has shored up numerous constituencies in his base. The Bush team's attempted outreach to base Democratic and swing constituency has shown to be a failure thus far, limiting his potential growth in the electorate.
The most important group in this election now is the undecideds and Mr. Bush's standing among them is weak. He is generally well liked among the undecideds, having a strong favorability (56%), but his job performance is another story. Only 32% approve of Bush's job in office and only 31% believe the country is headed in the right direction. The undecideds are not yet sold on Mr. Kerry, with only 49% having a favorable opinion of him. But Mr. Kerry can still sell his message to them: over a quarter (28%) are either not familiar enough or are not sure of their opinion yet. These undecided voters are generally dissatisfied with the President, but are still not acquainted enough with the Senator from Massachusetts to support him.
The Bush campaign's efforts to court voters in the Hispanic, Jewish, and Catholic communities seem to have fallen flat. Mr. Kerry is leading Mr. Bush by a similar margin to that which former Vice-President Al Gore won among Jewish voters in 2000. Mr. Bush is also running far behind his 2000 Hispanic total, with only 19% of the Hispanic voters supporting him, while Mr. Kerry is beating Mr. Gore's total with 69%. Mr. Kerry is also running very strong among Catholics, topping Mr. Bush, 52% to 37%, showing that not only has Bush's courting of them failed, but his use of wedge issues like gay marriage and partial birth abortion have failed to separate Catholic voters from Kerry.
The Senator's lead among Catholics is similar to the Clinton margins of the 1990s.
Mr. Bush has also shown weakness in what is considered to be his best region, the South. While Kerry's choice of Senator John Edwards gives him his biggest boost, his economic populism and courting of veterans are also key in his eroding of Mr. Bush's support. Not only has Kerry now come to a tie with Bush in favorability in the South (55% for both), the Kerry-Edwards ticket has pulled ahead, 48% to 46% in the South. President Bush's job performance is down to only 44% in the South, and only 43% of Southerners think the country is headed in the right direction.
Mr. Kerry is also performing well in Blue states, among Young voters and among Single voters. In the Blue states, Mr. Kerry is winning 50% to 38%, while in the Red States, Mr. Bush is only winning 48% to 46%. Among Single voters, Mr. Kerry is winning huge by a total of 69% to 19%. And among young voters - 18-29 year olds - a group Al Gore only won by 2 points in 2000, Kerry is winning in a landslide, 53% to 33%.
There are three factors contributing to Senator Kerry's lead in the electorate; first is President Bush's eroding base, second is his failure in outreach to swing groups and base Democratic constituencies, and third is Mr. Kerry's strengthening of his base. Mr. Kerry also has the potential to open a bigger lead in two areas. First, among the undecided voters, if Mr. Kerry can sell himself as a viable alternative to Mr. Bush, he stands to make large gains amongst the small, but significant chuck of undecideds. Second is in the turnout arena, Mr. Kerry's large leads amongst Hispanics - who will potentially make up a great portion of the electorate than they did in 2000 - and young voters - who numerous non-partisan groups like Rock the Vote and MTV are targeting - will stand to boost his total share of the vote with every point their turnout increases. Mr. Kerry is showing a 2-to-1 lead (50% to 25%) amongst voters who didn't vote in 2000, while winning three-quarters (75%) of Ralph Nader's voters and stealing twice as many (8% to 4%) of Mr. Bush voters in 2000 than Bush is stealing of Gore voters in 2000.
As long as Kerry keeps up with the policy shifting and bullshit statements without any specifics, and Bush keeps campaigning I think he still has a good shot. Bush would do alot better if he got the media coverage Kerry does and actually defended himself once in awhile.
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