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Unfolding Nature Shop: Unfolding Nature: Being in the Implicate Order

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For the Non-Believers, An Idea for an end to skepticism.
    #11933719 -

Ok, so me and my friend were talking about astrology.  He thinks that by looking for it, it exists in your mind, but not in reality.  I think it is a science of sorts, and exists.

So my idea is, if my friend at usc film school, went out into hollywood with me, and I randomly stopped strangers, interviewed them, and accurately guessed their sign in 3 tries every time.  Now, there is 12 signs, so if I got it within the first 3 likes 50 times in a row,
It would become a highly improbable oddity that astrology wasn't true.

If I decide to do this, I'll def youtube it, and put it on my channel.

More ideas to help this idea? please no h8rs, i had enough hate when my dad beat me as a child, so go away.

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Re: For the Non-Believers, An Idea for an end to skepticism. [Re: aghorrorag]
    #11933784 -

There have been a hundred threads on this and one just tonight. If you could consistently assess a random stranger's horoscope sign, you would be one million dollars richer.

Your uncontrolled and edited U-tube means nothing to those of us that are rational.

Of course, you will NOT petition for the Randi Millions as it would be certain fail - not because of bias but because of selective memory - i.e. disregarding false results.


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Re: For the Non-Believers, An Idea for an end to skepticism. [Re: aghorrorag]
    #11933804 -

Consideration #1:  You need a control.  This is *crucial*, especially for this because of the birthday problem: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem
Basically have one person go out and have a random-number generator that choose a number from 1-12 and "guess" the corresponding number's sign up to three times or until you get a hit.  Compare this statistic against the person who claims to be able to guess more accurately.

Consideration #2: Since the population's astrological signs aren't distributed evenly, it would be problematic.  I.E. there are more people born in certain months than in others, so you'll have a preponderance of one sign.  If you knew what signs those were, you could increase your "hit rate" over just pure random guessing. 

Consideration #3: To be scientific you'll need a large sample size.  50 may not be enough to eliminate noise.  ~200 or more would be more convincing.

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Re: For the Non-Believers, An Idea for an end to skepticism. [Re: evilturnip]
    #11933817 -

Finding the truth about alleged paranormal powers is not nearly as much fun as conclusion-jumping.


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Re: For the Non-Believers, An Idea for an end to skepticism. [Re: aghorrorag]
    #11933823 -

Also, quite frankly, I wouldn't be convinced unless there was an actual scientist that does these sorts of experiments oversee the entire thing.  No one is going to be convinced because you did it by yourself.  You *absolutely* need a field scientist to oversee this. 

If you don't do that, no one is going to believe you (except for those who are already convinced).

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Re: For the Non-Believers, An Idea for an end to skepticism. [Re: OrgoneConclusion]
    #11933828 -

Yeah, which is why I think that they should consult a field scientist to oversee it.  Quite frankly, if a scientist certified the result, I'd be intrigued.

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Re: For the Non-Believers, An Idea for an end to skepticism. [Re: aghorrorag]
    #11933833 -

Interesting, please tell us more...

Why do you think that your proposed experiment is an adequate test of whether astrology was true or not? In other words, how exactly does acurately "guessing" someone's sign prove that astrology was true? In other words, why wouldn't it be that accurately guessing someone's sign was instead more indicative of the ability to indirectly discover information from people in an interview without them ever directly giving that information?

What would the interview involve exactly and would the interview be the same for each person?

Were you only planning to do 50 interviews in total? Should there be more than just one person doing the "guessing" - maybe ya need more astrologists involved. Out of 50, my guess is you'll probably get some right some wrong, not 50 out of 50 either way. So how might you interpret 10 right/40 wrong, or 20/30, or 30/20, or 40 right/10 wrong?


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Re: For the Non-Believers, An Idea for an end to skepticism. [Re: OrgoneConclusion]
    #11933835 -

OrgoneConclusion said:
Finding the truth about alleged paranormal powers is not nearly as much fun as conclusion-jumping.


Yeah the other problem is consideration #2.  There's really no way to eliminate that.  There might be a way to account for that (such as weighting a random number generator to guess those signs more frequently).  Anyway, it would be better to have someone who knows the ins-and-outs (ie university scientist) of these type of field studies to oversee it.

Edited by evilturnip (01/31/10 02:51 AM)

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Re: For the Non-Believers, An Idea for an end to skepticism. [Re: evilturnip]
    #11933839 -

It won't happen. Period.

Look at EmbracingShadows unbridled anger when I merely suggested he take home $1,000,000. He should be thankful to either win the money or learn something about himself. Instead, see what happens?

Skeptics are often called close-mined, but it is ALWAYS the believers who demonstrate what close-minded truly means. You can tell by the insults and excuses.


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Re: For the Non-Believers, An Idea for an end to skepticism. [Re: OrgoneConclusion]
    #11933847 -

even if i did do it, people would claim it was edited, or that these were people I knew.  I wish honesty had some value in today's world!


--------------------
My entire Life is defined by this link. I beg of you to read: https://www.facebook.com/notes/tsafir-kamel/a-compassionate-message-for-jews-and-christians/10150614597334779

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Re: For the Non-Believers, An Idea for an end to skepticism. [Re: aghorrorag]
    #11933855 -

So you concede defeat without even trying? That is amazingly pathetic.

There are dozens of organizations besides Randi willing to pay good money for solid evidence of astrology. Instead you will try to convince those who are already convinced.

I am most unimpressed. :congrats:


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Re: For the Non-Believers, An Idea for an end to skepticism. [Re: aghorrorag]
    #11933856 -

aghorrorag said:
even if i did do it, people would claim it was edited, or that these were people I knew.  I wish honesty had some value in today's world!


It's not about honesty.  You could actually believe you've done an objective study and still be doing the experiment wrong that would lead to incorrect results in various ways.  If you really want to get to the truth, have someone whose job is to find out the truth oversee your experiment!  It's really very simple...

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Re: For the Non-Believers, An Idea for an end to skepticism. [Re: evilturnip]
    #11933875 -

Beyond simple.

Won't happen.

The desire to continue the fantasy is almost always stronger than the desire for truth.

:sorry:


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Re: For the Non-Believers, An Idea for an end to skepticism. [Re: OrgoneConclusion]
    #11933949 -

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paranormal

Not many people believe in Astrology, myself included.
As for psychic powers, I believe there maybe some truth in it.
Good luck with the experiment I look forward to seeing the results.



Edited by Valknut (01/31/10 03:56 AM)

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Re: For the Non-Believers, An Idea for an end to skepticism. [Re: evilturnip]
    #11933958 -

astrixx said:
aghorrorag said:
even if i did do it, people would claim it was edited, or that these were people I knew.  I wish honesty had some value in today's world!


It's not about honesty.  You could actually believe you've done an objective study and still be doing the experiment wrong that would lead to incorrect results in various ways.  If you really want to get to the truth, have someone whose job is to find out the truth oversee your experiment!  It's really very simple...


Ok, If I got a professor from the USC science department to oversee my experiment?


--------------------
My entire Life is defined by this link. I beg of you to read: https://www.facebook.com/notes/tsafir-kamel/a-compassionate-message-for-jews-and-christians/10150614597334779

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Re: For the Non-Believers, An Idea for an end to skepticism. [Re: aghorrorag]
    #11933973 -

aghorrorag said:
astrixx said:
aghorrorag said:
even if i did do it, people would claim it was edited, or that these were people I knew.  I wish honesty had some value in today's world!


It's not about honesty.  You could actually believe you've done an objective study and still be doing the experiment wrong that would lead to incorrect results in various ways.  If you really want to get to the truth, have someone whose job is to find out the truth oversee your experiment!  It's really very simple...


Ok, If I got a professor from the USC science department to oversee my experiment?


If it was a science professor that was familiar with statistical methods, then of course!  Point all the caveats (i.e. the considerations I posted above), and ask him to construct a study with those considerations in mind.  Then try to have an independent person do the control.  It would also be good if you had an independent observer follow you around as you talk to ppl (maybe a lab assistant or something).

You could probably generate interest by having it published in the school paper or something.  Its very doable.

Oh yeah, also not sure why you need 3 guesses.  You should just only do one guess and just make sure you have a large sample size. 

Edited by evilturnip (01/31/10 04:19 AM)

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Re: For the Non-Believers, An Idea for an end to skepticism. [Re: Valknut]
    #11934003 -

Yes, most people are self-deluded. Nothing new there.

Number of people able to demonstrate something spiritual, paranormal or supernatural: zero.


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Re: For the Non-Believers, An Idea for an end to skepticism. [Re: aghorrorag]
    #11934331 -

aghorrorag said:
even if i did do it, people would claim it was edited, or that these were people I knew.  I wish honesty had some value in today's world!



BS


--------------------
"Don't believe everything you think". -Anom.

" All that lives was born to die"-Anom.

With much wisdom comes much sorrow,
The more knowledge, the more grief.
Ecclesiastes circa 350 BC

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Re: For the Non-Believers, An Idea for an end to skepticism. [Re: OrgoneConclusion]
    #11936295 -

OrgoneConclusion said:
Yes, most people are self-deluded. Nothing new there.

Number of people able to demonstrate something spiritual, paranormal or supernatural: zero.


I am going to study your posts for a few weeks, and I am going to accurately guess your sign.  And if I'm wrong I'll wear a sig bet for two weeks saying, "ASTROLOGY IS STUPID!", and you don't have to wager anything if you don't want.


--------------------
My entire Life is defined by this link. I beg of you to read: https://www.facebook.com/notes/tsafir-kamel/a-compassionate-message-for-jews-and-christians/10150614597334779

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Re: For the Non-Believers, An Idea for an end to skepticism. [Re: aghorrorag]
    #11936423 -

I think he's posted his sign here before several times and all you have to do is search and find it. Nice fucking try but not everyone is a mark.

Go win the Randi million and then we will believe you.:satansmoking:


--------------------
"Don't believe everything you think". -Anom.

" All that lives was born to die"-Anom.

With much wisdom comes much sorrow,
The more knowledge, the more grief.
Ecclesiastes circa 350 BC

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Unfolding Nature Shop: Unfolding Nature: Being in the Implicate Order

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