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Ok, things are getting interesting...
    #8090627 -

Our world is nearing the end of the cycle of civilization, and before you dismiss me as another idiot pulling prophecy from my ass, allow me to explain.

Maciavelli and Giambatista Vico wrote on the succession of government, both of their ideas are strikingly similar, and hold up very well when looking at the progression of society. Roughly, here is the succession of the kinds of government.


Anarchy (or Ochlocracy, Mob Rule)

King (benevolent leader who unites the mob)

Tyrant (overzealous king who abuses power)

Aristocracy (literally means "rule by the best" they are the nobels who overthrow the king)

Oligarchy (a malevolent aristocracy, one who abuses power)
Democracy (rule by lot, benign rule by reason, overthrows the oligarchs who opressed them in favor of returning power to the masses)

Anarchy (Again, Ochlocracy, occurs when individuals take too much power, everyone has their own adgenda, Vico calls this "the worst tyranny" because people behave like animals in this state of nature)

Current Events:
Consider the history of eastern Europe. While it is not completely clear cut, there is a definite trend. When under the control of the soviet union, a king (essentially, although not in name) was installed in each of these daughter nations by Russia. After the fall of the soviet union, the nations converted into what is called a "Post-communist oligarchy." Now, however, with the revolutions of Kosovo, Armenia, Serbia, and many other Bloc nations, Democracy is now beginning to be installed. We shall yet see whether or not things will continue through this cycle, but it is coming. Between 1960-1980 the rule was predominantly tyrranical, then between 1980-slightly before 2000 it was more oligarchal. Now, here we are in 2008 and things are democratic in those areas. The way it seems to be going things could turn again if those in power push the mob to completely reject rulers.

Thoughts?

Edited by xFrockx (03/01/08 04:56 PM)

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Re: Ok, things are getting interesting... [Re: xFrockx]
    #8090685 -

Sounds a lot like Marx's conception of the paths civilizations take.

Really, I waffle on this issue. Half the time, I think something has got to give, and soon. The other half, I see how this could go on forever.

I've been listening to an audiobook of 1984 a lot lately, and it makes a very persuasive argument that if a government really put their minds to it, they could totally stall the progression at the apex of tyranny. The key, the book proposes, is a government actually totally dedicated to terrifying, torturing, and controlling the population. Previous empires failed in ultimately being too gentle with too large a part of the population.

I've also been thinking about the principle of Doublespeak.
One of the examples given in the book is

We are winning the war with eurasia.

The war with eurasia is essentially unwinable.


Sound at all like the white house line on the war on "terror"?


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Re: Ok, things are getting interesting... (moved) [Re: xFrockx]
    #8090694 -

This thread was moved from Philosophy & Spirituality.

Reason:
This topic is about something Paranormal, not Philosophy or Spirituality.

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Re: Ok, things are getting interesting... (moved) [Re: crumblebum]
    #8090712 -

What the hell? This isn't paranormal, it's Political Philosophy!


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Re: Ok, things are getting interesting... (moved) [Re: crumblebum]
    #8090717 -

Dude, he's not talking about a prophecy, he's talking about a political model.


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Re: Ok, things are getting interesting... (moved) [Re: crumblebum]
    #8090753 -

Yeah, I PMed him. Hopefully it'll be moved back soon.

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Re: Ok, things are getting interesting... (moved) [Re: crumblebum]
    #8090768 -

Ohh, so did I. Hope that isn't annoying.


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Re: Ok, things are getting interesting... (moved) [Re: xFrockx]
    #8090829 -

This thread was moved from Mysticism and the Paranormal.

Reason:
Well, I see you discussing a prophesy in the context of politics. The way I see it it's Paranormal (prophesy) or if you stretch a bit maybe Politics. Not Philosophy or Spirituality.

But, since you seem to feel strongly about this, I'll put it back for ya.

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Re: Ok, things are getting interesting... (moved) [Re: Diploid]
    #8090841 -

The universe is back in order.

Haha, crumblebum... the sig. :lol:


--------------------
“Strengthened by contemplation and study,
I will not fear my passions like a coward.
My body I will give to pleasures,
to diversions that I’ve dreamed of,
to the most daring erotic desires,
to the lustful impulses of my blood, without
any fear at all, for whenever I will—
and I will have the will, strengthened
as I’ll be with contemplation and study—
at the crucial moments I’ll recover
my spirit as was before: ascetic.”

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Re: Ok, things are getting interesting... [Re: xFrockx]
    #8090855 -

The truth is it kind of sounds prophetic :shrug:


--------------------
:bunny::bunnyhug:
All this time I've loved you
And never known your face
All this time I've missed you
And searched this human race
Here is true peace
Here my heart knows calm
Safe in your soul
Bathed in your sighs

:bunnyhug: :yinyang2:

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Re: Ok, things are getting interesting... (moved) [Re: Diploid]
    #8090858 -

I wasn't so much focusing on any prophecy, I wanted people to think about the succession of government I posted, and think about where we are in that matrix. Certainly it seems that the world started with kings, moved on to aristocracies, and now we are here in the age of democracy. The roman and Egyptian civilizations went through nearly identical successions, so it can be interesting to ponder if the things we humans do inevitably lead us to run the same courses.

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Re: Ok, things are getting interesting... (moved) [Re: Lion]
    #8090863 -

Maybe I just don't understand the initial poster.

Are you talking about a prophecy of events, or a model of governmental change like in the communist manifesto? I.E. we move from slave society to serfs to proletariat or however it goes?


Edit: I guess you kind of clarified that while I was asking.


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Edited by crumblebum (03/01/08 05:56 PM)

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Re: Ok, things are getting interesting... (moved) [Re: xFrockx]
    #8090875 -

Plato talks about it too, here is a very good article. If you don't quite get what I'm trying to say, read this, it will become much more clear.

http://federalistnowandforever.wordpress.com/2007/10/15/plato-and-aristotles-regimes-republic-and-politics/

Quote:
There might be some confusion concerning the nature of politics and the type of regimes. Today we tend to think of a number of regimes, although many of them are simply the same regime with a different title. We call the government in England a Constitutional Monarchy, yet it simply is a Monarchy. China we say is a Communist regime, yet really all the political form of Communism is Oligarchy. All the regimes currently in use today can be boiled down to a list of just a handful. These regimes were originally defined and stated by Plato and Aristotle, two classical Greek philosophers who concerned themselves heavily with the nature of the polis. To get an idea of what the regimes are, this essay will attempt to outline the various forms of government as laid down by both men. In order to deal with the two authors it will be prudent to describe Plato’s regimes first followed by Aristotle.

In Book VIII of the Republic, Plato speaks of the degenerate regimes after having spent considerable time describing an Aristocracy. Aristocracy in the classical sense is not rule by the few, or rule by the wealthy. Aristocracy for Plato meant rule by the virtuous. The ideal city would be ruled by a Philosopher king, but because no philosopher will want to rule in the city there must be a handful of virtuous individuals willing to rule.

The first degenerate regime that flows directly from Aristocracy is Timocracy. This form of government is rarely spoken of and is largely forgotten compared to the remaining regimes. Timocracy is the rule by the honorable, or more simply a Warlord. Timocracy comes about when instead of concerning oneself with virtue itself, one concerns themselves with the seeking of honor. The primary means of attaining honor is on the battlefield, and thus the idea of a military leader leading the city falls into a Timocratic regime.

From the Timocrat comes the Oligarch, the son of the man who is more concerned about his honor than about wealth. When honor is lost and you have nothing else, then you are empty. The Oligarch as a result is a stingy person who spends little but acquires much. Oligarchy is defined by a few very wealthy individuals ruling the city over the less fortunate and often impoverished inhabitants. Oligarchy is the most popular form of government and the wealthy are often times viewed as the best individuals and therefore most worthy of ruling. Today Oligarchy is often confused with Aristocracy due to their elitist tendencies. With the fall of Oligarchy, so goes the way of the virtuous regimes. Oligarchy, Timocracy and Aristocracy represent the various parts of the soul for Plato, and also different virtues or, in the case of Aristocracy, virtue itself. The three parts of the soul that correspond with the three regimes are: Rational part with Aristocracy, the Spirited part with Timocracy and the Appetitive part with Oligarchy.

The first regime lacking virtue is democracy, or rule by the people. The democrat comes about because of the lack of equality in the Oligarchy. In the Oligarchy limits are placed on how much one can spend, preventing the democrat from being allowed to do as he sees fit. This coupled with the lack of equality brings about the Democracy. Democracy is ruled on two principles: Freedom and Equality. Because of its nature Democracy lacks virtue but it is not totally depraved. Democracy is the best possible regime while Aristocracy is the regime most wished for.

Finally Plato ends his account of the regimes with Tyranny, the most dreaded and depraved form of government developed by mankind. Tyranny is the exact opposite of Aristocracy. The tyrant comes to rule because he desires all. Tyranny is characterized by the lack of concern for one’s subjects and a desire to obtain all one wishes for. The tyrant cares nothing for his people or his city, only for his own selfish gains. Where the Aristocrat rules for the sake of the city, the tyrant rules for the sake of self. With the end of the analysis of the tyrant and tyranny comes the end of Plato’s discussion of the regimes within the Republic.

Aristotle does not entirely agree with Plato’s assessment of regimes in the Republic. His Politics is largely a rebuttal of the arguments made in the Republic. Aristotle defines three chief regimes: Kingship, Aristocracy and Polity. These regimes all have a degenerate regime corresponding with it: Tyranny, Oligarchy and Democracy. One will immediately identify that Aristotle lacks the Timocratic regime and instead replaces it with Polity, a mixture of Oligarchy and Democracy.

Kingship is a fairly self explanatory regime, for Aristotle it is the most desired regime but due to its ability to quickly turn into tyranny it is not the best possible regime. Kingship is simple, it is the rule by one person who is king. In the Kingship there is only one citizen and that is the King himself. This can be compared in some manner to Plato’s discussion of the Philosopher King, although the king in such a regime need not necessarily be a Philosopher but not a Tyrant either.[1]

Aristocracy is essentially the same regime for both Plato and Aristotle, the rule by the virtuous.

Polity as said above is a mix between Oligarchy and Democracy. Depending on the rulers it can either be more heavily Oligarchic or more heavily Democratic. The difference between the two being that an Oligarchic Polity would be ruled by a few selected wealthy individuals, while the Democratic Polity would be ruled by the people in general. This regime is what Aristotle calls the best possible regime because it involves the rule by the middling class. The middling class often makes up the most of all inhabitants in a city and thus the regime which allows for them to be citizens allows for the most participation in the operation of the city. Many often compare this to a Republic, but that is a false comparison as will be shown briefly.[2]

Oligarchy and Democracy are the same as in Plato and therefore require no additional attention. It should be noted, however, that Aristotle defines four types of democratic regimes unlike Plato. The first, considered the best and the oldest by Aristotle is democracy ruled by the farming sort. Second is based on property, not like Oligarchy where wealth determines one’s status within the polis, this just makes one a citizen for having a certain amount of property. The third is where qualified inhabitants are citizens under the law, in other words rule of law. The third sort is direct democracy, rule by the multitude.[3]

The best regime, and best way of life according to Aristotle are the same. The best way of life is the mirror image of the best regime. While Kingship is the regime most desired, and Polity the best attainable regime it is the mixed regime that is the best regime. The mixed regime contains elements of each individual regime, just as the best person is a mixture of all the different virtues. The regime must incorporate virtue, the farming class and the middling class. It is this regime, the mixed regime, which must properly be defined as a Republic. A Polity as stated before is a regime of Oligarchy and Democracy, while a Republic is a mixed regime with multiple regimes tied into it. Take for example the American regime, which is not a Polity at all but is a Republic. We have the element of Kingship in the President, we have the element of Democracy in the House of Representatives, we have the element of Oligarchy in the Senate and we have Aristocracy in the Supreme Court. Such a regime is the best possible regime because it allows for the virtues of each regime to be apart of the city; just as the the virtuous person participates in each individual virtue, so does the city participate in the virtues exemplified by the various regimes in a mixed regime.



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Re: Ok, things are getting interesting... [Re: crumblebum]
    #8090891 -

I don't think previous empires have been to gentle with the population to keep their power. There have been some pretty evil empires out there, there cruelty boggles the human mind, the word "Catholics" springs to mind when thinking of this subject. Eventually, no matter how cruel and controlling they are, they fade way, everything in this world is temporary.

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Re: Ok, things are getting interesting... (moved) [Re: crumblebum]
    #8090960 -

Several Poli. Philosophers have suggested progressions that societies take from one model to another. Honestly, while it's interesting as a thought experiment, and makes one more capable of examining specific instances of regime change leading into regime change, I don't think there really is an overarching model of how socieities change in respect to their government.

Basically, I think too many factors go into who wins the revolution, who actually ends up with the power, and what they end up doing with it. Historically, there are numerous instances of power being seized by one idealist group and then hijacked by a different group from within after one generation who radically changes the platforms of the government, sometimes mirroring the recently overthrown.

Also, in an age of ever increasing complexity, simpler definitions of government aren't totally sufficient to discuss the society anymore. America is a democratically ruled republic with several oligarchies, a few monarchies, and elements of totalitarianism and anarchy. WE are a highly developed capitalist state with communist taxing and spending tendancies. Businesses are highly regulated and allowed to run rampant, civil liberties are amongst the best in the world and savagely restrictive.

What history tells me is that sometimes the face of the new world has more to do with the identity of the straw that broke the camels back than it does with the mountain of straws beneath it.


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Re: Ok, things are getting interesting... (moved) [Re: crumblebum]
    #8091247 -

This is a good point, but I tend to disagree. Although we are a complex society, I think it is easy to argue that we lie somewhere between an oligarchy and a democracy, and there's no harm in the lines blurring a bit. I'd argue that we don't have many aspects of kingship, as a lot more comes along with that term than rule for life (in the example of supreme court justices for instance). Kings tend to rely on an agrarian economy with a large lower class and no middle class. For now, America still has a fairly large middle class, and economically, we are definitely not in the system that most philosophers associate with kingship. But to address your point about how things just happen as they do, allow me to defend myself.

The way I see it, each form of government has an inherent weakness. Kings are the best rulers, but most easily become tyrranical. This weakness inspires people to alter the government to correct the error, and in the case of nearly every empire I've looked at in my research the ones who are able to overthrow the king are not the serfs who life a simple farming life, but a small group of rich/honorable people who can inspire the proles to unite over the tyrant. These fail still though, their error being that they can be corruptable, as well as how they are very easily controlled once conquered (a la Machiavelli's reasoning anyway) A king could not take over an oligarchy, because there is enough power in the oligarchy itself to prevent it. However, the people have enough power, in the end, that their unified action can topple it. In this way it simply does not move in reverse much, if ever.

I'll try to put this in an easy to understand, I know it can be a little complex.

Rule By One
Strength: Easily formed with religion
Weakness: Easily Corrupted
Reason why it must follow as it does?:
It is difficult for a king to topple an oligarchy because those in power work against one another. However, In an anarchy, the people have no wealth, so there can be no oligarchical force. For this reason, usually one person comes from the masses to assert power, and because of the chaos of anarchy, this is easily established.

Rule By Few
Strength: Not as easily corrupted as a king
Weakness: Once corrupted, power can be held very tightly

Reason why it must follow as it does?:
Oligarchies cannot easily precede kings because the power structure makes it hard for one person to take power from the others. Because the rulers of the oligarchy are all as easily corrupted, they often work against each other enough to cancel their corruption out. Oligarchies can cycle between democracy, but in the cases of Great Britan, The United States, and France, the people very rarely accept an oligarchy. Honestly, I am not sure why.

Rule By Many
Strength: Not easily corruptable to the point of dissolution
Weakness: Easily dissolved into anarchy

Why it follows that it does?:
The Rule of the people is the only one strong enough to topple an oligarchy, so it usually follows one. However, the public is often so poor in a government ruled by a king that they see power as monolithic and unchanging. They simply don't know anything else.


I hope that makes things a little more clear.

Edited by xFrockx (03/01/08 07:23 PM)

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Re: Ok, things are getting interesting... [Re: xFrockx]
    #8096707 -

you dismiss me as another idiot pulling prophecy from my ass,

You are dismissed.


--------------------
"Don't believe everything you think". -Anom.

" All that lives was born to die"-Anom.

With much wisdom comes much sorrow,
The more knowledge, the more grief.
Ecclesiastes circa 350 BC

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Re: Ok, things are getting interesting... [Re: Icelander]
    #8096899 -

Icelander- What?



I understand the basic models of government, the problem being that all these models came after the fact, so to speak. Given the number of people and agendas wrapped up in most modern societies, I don't think any of these models quite fit. And given the general emrgent diversity, I don't think it would be possible to chart out an accurate path that modern civilizations go through.

For one, population groups are large enough now that splintering occurs in any revolution, with some groups adopting previous government types, and others go for untried methods. In diasporas, which group do you measure as the inheritors for any of these models?

Look at the former soviet states now, for example. All different kinda shits goin' on there.

If you don't think we have monarchy, look at Paris Hilton. What does she DO? Celebrities are often referred to as royalty, and it's for a reason. They spend most of their time just showing up to things, and make bank for having done it. Take away our class system, and we'll make a new one.


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Re: Ok, things are getting interesting... [Re: crumblebum]
    #8097009 -

Icelander- What?


It's Icelander - SIR.:mrt:


--------------------
"Don't believe everything you think". -Anom.

" All that lives was born to die"-Anom.

With much wisdom comes much sorrow,
The more knowledge, the more grief.
Ecclesiastes circa 350 BC

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Re: Ok, things are getting interesting... [Re: Icelander]
    #8097242 -

Ohh, I get it now. Since you were using bold to quote, and not the actual quote function, I thought that was all one statement.

Still, not terribly relevent to the thread.


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