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General Interest > Philosophy, Sociology & Psychology
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Has ANYBODY ever accurately predicted ANYTHING?
    #7715325 -

Forget the Mayans. Let's expand this to be all-inclusive.

Before you start salivating, here are the rules:

1. It cannot be a logical extrapolation or likelihood. For example, years ago before the invasion, I 'predicted' no WMD and total chaos in Iraq after removing Hussein. This was not based on any powers other than deduction and studying cultures and history. Another popular one is 'predicting' a sick relative will die on a certain day.

2. It cannot be a wide-angle nonspecific prediction, i.e. somebody will die in a plane crash next month.

3. It cannot be data back-fitting as is the case with Nostradamus.

4. The predictor cannot shotgun. For example, if I make multiple predictions regarding the same subject. I predict The Patriots or The Colts or The Jets or The Dolphins or ... will win the 2009 Super Bowl.


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Re: Has ANYBODY ever accurately predicted ANYTHING? [Re: OrgoneConclusion]
    #7715330 -

I predict that I will respond to a thread at least once more at the shroomery.


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"Don't believe everything you think". -Anom.

" All that lives was born to die"-Anom.

With much wisdom comes much sorrow,
The more knowledge, the more grief.
Ecclesiastes circa 350 BC

Edited by Icelander (12/04/07 01:03 PM)

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Re: Has ANYBODY ever accurately predicted ANYTHING? [Re: OrgoneConclusion]
    #7715338 -

If logical extrapolation doesn't count, then no. That is the only real way to make predictions.

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Re: Has ANYBODY ever accurately predicted ANYTHING? [Re: OrgoneConclusion]
    #7715342 -

I heard on the History Channel that a 12th century Tibetan prophecy predicted that the 14th Dalai Lama would be the last one to live in Tibet. I'll have to find a source on that.


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Re: Has ANYBODY ever accurately predicted ANYTHING? [Re: Icelander]
    #7715345 -

Psychologists predict various things in populations by using random samples with a measureable degree of accuracy.

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Re: Has ANYBODY ever accurately predicted ANYTHING? [Re: OrgoneConclusion]
    #7715362 -

I predict disclosure of the existence of non-human hominid intelligences to the public by 7.25.2013.

Pre-Colombian Hopi Prophecies from The Millennium Book of Prophecy by John Hogue:

"Before the time of the great Purification, they will make metal roads for iron horses and hang metal ropes in the air."

"First they will bring back pieces of the Moon which will upset the balance and unleash disastrous forces."

"Near the day of the Great Purification, there will be cobwebs spun back and forth in the sky."

"The Purification will begin shortly after humans build a great house in the sky. By then there will be fires everywhere and greedy, selfish, power-mad leaders, internal wars."

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Re: Has ANYBODY ever accurately predicted ANYTHING? [Re: xFrockx]
    #7715394 -

QED people predicted the value of the electron magnetic moment to better than 1 part in 100 billions. Now that's quite accurate if you ask me, as in

accuracy : the quality of being near to the true value

:shrug:

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Re: Has ANYBODY ever accurately predicted ANYTHING? [Re: Middleman]
    #7715426 -

Quote:
I predict disclosure of the existence of non-human hominid intelligences to the public by 7.25.2013.


hom·i·nid: A primate of the family Hominidae, of which Homo sapiens is the only extant species.

You are predicting a new primate species will be discovered or revealed?


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Re: Has ANYBODY ever accurately predicted ANYTHING? [Re: OrgoneConclusion]
    #7715434 -

NiamhNyx said:
If logical extrapolation doesn't count, then no. That is the only real way to make predictions.


Yeah... if you ask a question and then, have to modify the parameters of the question FOUR different times.... perhaps you should've asked a different question.


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Fiddlesticks.


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Re: Has ANYBODY ever accurately predicted ANYTHING? [Re: deimya]
    #7715457 -

Kurzweil has made plenty of predictions that have come true.

While he isnt claiming any supernatural feat, it still isnt wholly logical extrapolation.
Some are, like how he has predicted the month in which Moores law will break down....

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Re: Has ANYBODY ever accurately predicted ANYTHING? [Re: Middleman]
    #7715462 -

I take it this book was written AFTER the locomotive and telegraph/telephone was invented and men went to the moon?


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Re: Has ANYBODY ever accurately predicted ANYTHING? [Re: OrgoneConclusion]
    #7715466 -

OrgoneConclusion said:
Quote:
I predict disclosure of the existence of non-human hominid intelligences to the public by 7.25.2013.


hom·i·nid: A primate of the family Hominidae, of which Homo sapiens is the only extant species.

You are predicting a new primate species will be discovered or revealed?


Yeah ok grammar nazi, you know what I mean.

But sure, Bigfoot could be proven to exist, but I'm not betting on it. :tongue:

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Re: Has ANYBODY ever accurately predicted ANYTHING? [Re: OrgoneConclusion]
    #7715470 -

OrgoneConclusion said:
I take it this book was written AFTER the locomotive and telegraph/telephone was invented and men went to the moon?


Naw man, the Hopi really said that.

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Re: Has ANYBODY ever accurately predicted ANYTHING? [Re: Middleman]
    #7715481 -

Middleman said:
OrgoneConclusion said:
Quote:
I predict disclosure of the existence of non-human hominid intelligences to the public by 7.25.2013.


hom·i·nid: A primate of the family Hominidae, of which Homo sapiens is the only extant species.

You are predicting a new primate species will be discovered or revealed?


Yeah ok grammar nazi, you know what I mean.

But sure, Bigfoot could be proven to exist, but I'm not betting on it. :tongue:


I dont see why not, there have been enough inconclusive dna tests on unknown primate hairs to prove that sasquatch and yeti do exist.


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Man is timid and apologetic; he is no longer upright; he dares not say "I think," "I am," but quotes some saint or sage. He is ashamed before the blade of grass or the blowing rose.Man postpones or remembers; he does not live in the present, but with reverted eye laments the past, or, heedless of the riches that surround him, stands on tiptoe to foresee the future. He cannot be happy and strong until he too lives with nature in the present, above time
TRANSCEND


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Re: Has ANYBODY ever accurately predicted ANYTHING? [Re: Rose]
    #7715483 -

If I had not put in the caveats, we would endlessly dance around what precognition is.

Rephrased question:

Is there ANY record of ANYONE accurately predicting ANYTHING that could NOT be otherwise be explained through logic, chance, guessing or other ordinary means?

Betterer?


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Re: Has ANYBODY ever accurately predicted ANYTHING? [Re: Middleman]
    #7715485 -

Middleman said:
I predict disclosure of the existence of non-human hominid intelligences to the public by 7.25.2013.

Pre-Colombian Hopi Prophecies from The Millennium Book of Prophecy by John Hogue:

"Before the time of the great Purification, they will make metal roads for iron horses and hang metal ropes in the air."



Wow. I suspect translation had a good deal to do with this prediction.

How'd the Hopi know the difference between IRON and plain old METAL (Like steel, aluminum, titanium... etc.) when they didn't yet know EITHER existed?

THAT'S amazing!

I know, I know... sarcasm doesn't read.


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Fiddlesticks.


Edited by Rose (12/04/07 01:55 PM)

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Re: Has ANYBODY ever accurately predicted ANYTHING? [Re: Jack Albertson]
    #7715488 -

It's probably more likely that Bigfoot will be proven before disclosure comes...

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Re: Has ANYBODY ever accurately predicted ANYTHING? [Re: OrgoneConclusion]
    #7715493 -

OrgoneConclusion said:
If I had not put in the caveats, we would endlessly dance around what precognition is.

Rephrased question:

Is there ANY record of ANYONE accurately predicting ANYTHING that could NOT be otherwise be explained through logic, chance, guessing or other ordinary means?

Betterer?


Betterer? Yes.

To answer your new question... No.


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Fiddlesticks.


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Re: Has ANYBODY ever accurately predicted ANYTHING? [Re: Rose]
    #7715498 -

"Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence" ~ Dr. Carl Sagan

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Re: Has ANYBODY ever accurately predicted ANYTHING? [Re: Middleman]
    #7715499 -

Grammar is quite distinct from definition.

Why should I have to interpret your words? Why can you not state precisely what you mean?


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