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InvisibleSclorch
Clyster

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Registered: 07/13/99
Posts: 4,805
Loc: On the Brink of Madness
Prediction....
    #630967 - 05/14/02 10:21 PM (15 years, 1 month ago)

If I could successfully predict the future (a couple of times and very accurately), would you consider me a prophet?

I ask this because of this phenomenon that seems to surface in religions all the time. A follower of [pick a religion] will cite some passage in the ["holy" book that corresponds to religion] that "predicts" some event in the future. Let's disregard the misinterpretation/manipulation of the passage for now. Should I really give a shit if somebody "predicted" the future??? I mean, what if they are some sadistic loonies with a gift that decided that they just wanted to control the world. They accurately "predict" some event, then they set up an infallible belief system to go along with their predictions. They would obviously have to set up some sort of an organization to help propagate their belief system. Because the last thing we need is a bunch of zombies with no leader to control them.

Maybe it has already happened... nah, I would have noticed. Besides, even if it did happen, how bad could it get? How much harm could a bunch of zombies do before they all realized what they were doing and then stop? Maybe we'd get a small riot, but nothing even close to a real battle. It would be impossible for an entire nation to succumb to the sadistic plans of a few rotten "spiritual" leaders... right?


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Note: In desperate need of a cure...


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Offlinejono
misc.
Registered: 05/11/02
Posts: 137
Loc: Sydney, Australia
Last seen: 2 months, 3 days
Re: Prediction.... [Re: Sclorch]
    #631008 - 05/14/02 11:18 PM (15 years, 1 month ago)

If you could successfully predict the future "a couple of times", i'd be inclined not to believe that you were a prophet. Thats because there is a definite difference between predicting the future on a couple of occasions (which could definitely just be coincidence) and having the "ability" to predict the future (which i dont think anybody does). If some individual or book, (of which there is none) could accurately predict any future event postulated to it, id be inclined to believe that it could predict the future. But then again, im guessing you are already aware of that.

I think the reason religions try to convince followers of the ability is because it makes them seem so "powerful". If someone can predict the future, you better stick by him / her, because they could "see" any future problems, and hopefully help you to avoid them etc (as contradictory as that may be). They'd have a power that no body else did, as such.

"It would be impossible for an entire nation to succumb to the sadistic plans of a few rotten "spiritual" leaders... right?" - if thats sarcasm, then i like it :-)

Cheers,

Jono.



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Our problem results from acting like cowboys on a limitless frontier when in truth we inhabit a living spaceship with a finely balanced life-support system." David C. Korton


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OfflineEightball
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Re: Prediction.... [Re: Sclorch]
    #631025 - 05/14/02 11:42 PM (15 years, 1 month ago)

predicting the future is an issue of personal security. we do it on small scale in our lives. from predicting where your car is going to go based on a certain turn of the wheel, to predicting our spouse will come back to us after work, to predicting that it will rain, or predicting future trends of the stock market to make $, or predict if a neighboring tribe is gathering troops to invade you. basically we do it to aid in our survivial in an enviroment that is in constant change. now expand the mind's ability to take the seemingly infinite variables in the "universal equation" into consideration and you will be able to predict the future. obviously the more grasp of "everything" you have, the more you can predict. so if bob is aware of X amount of "everything" then he can find a subpatterns in the big universal pattern based on what he can "see", he can then predict where that pattern will go. so increase awareness and the future becomes more expected.

if i know what tomorrow holds then i will most likely act to bennifit or at minimum, survive tomorrow. if someone else believes i know what is going to happen in the future then there will be an idiology established where i would be a direct link to increased chances of survival. and we like to survive.

so how does our government fit the prophet predicting the future role? do we look to them to tell us what we should look out for? do we fear who they tell us to? do we hold their opinion higher than anyone else's? and they sort of do predict, or at least control the future


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If you're frightened of dying and you're holding on.you'll see devils tearing your life away.
But...if you've made your peace, then the devils are really angels
Freeing you from the earth.


Edited by Eightball (05/14/02 11:47 PM)


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InvisibleSclorch
Clyster

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Registered: 07/13/99
Posts: 4,805
Loc: On the Brink of Madness
Re: Prediction.... [Re: Eightball]
    #631240 - 05/15/02 06:31 AM (15 years, 1 month ago)

So, you're saying that if I get lucky and predict the future right... let's say the lottery, neither of you will consider me a prophet?

Damn it... those cult guys make it look so easy...


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Note: In desperate need of a cure...


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Invisiblebuttonion
Calmly Watching

Registered: 04/04/02
Posts: 303
Loc: Kansas
Re: Prediction.... [Re: Sclorch]
    #631246 - 05/15/02 06:36 AM (15 years, 1 month ago)

I would want to rule out the possiblity that you're predictions are due to chance, overly vague phrasing, or some other deception. If you insist on being vague (e.g., I foresee bad things in your future) then I would ask you to be more specific. If you declined, then... I would see no reason to believe you. I would also try to rule out any other explanations (e.g., friend is setting up your "predicted events")

If your predicitions are "sufficiently specific," or lend themselves to scientific analysis, then we can proceed with the scientific method to rule out chance.

I would first ask you to make a few predictions about the future, phrased in such a way that in the end, you're either right or wrong. After the time has passed for your predictions to have come true, I would talley up your total hits and total misses and submit the data to a statisitical analysis (chi-square in this case). The results of the test would reveal whether your ability to predict is better than what one would expect to observe due to chance alone.

I would also like to control for a lot more things (e.g., setting, time of prediction) but I know that many so-called clairavoyants or prophets are not willing to submit themselves to such rigorous scientific analyses. I guess you have to comprimise a little.




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Concepts which have been proved to be useful in ordering things easily acquire such an authority over us that we forget their human origins and accept them as invariable.- Albert Einstein


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Invisiblebuttonion
Calmly Watching

Registered: 04/04/02
Posts: 303
Loc: Kansas
Re: Prediction.... [Re: Eightball]
    #631263 - 05/15/02 06:57 AM (15 years, 1 month ago)

Well that is definitely an evolutionary perspective on the desire to predict the future (survival). I can think of a few more reasons someone might be compelled to believe in such an ability also.

Personal specialness- People have a basic need to believe in their own specialness- we want to see ourselves as more than just animals but unique, special beings with capacities that transcend the rest of tha animal kingdom. The existence of someone who can predict the future implies that this power may be a potential that you can eventually realize, and that humans do indeed have a special place in the universe.

Interpersonal power- A power component is rarely not a part of human interaction (for some more than others). The ability to predict the future would not only be a big step in ensuring your personal, physicial survival, but you would have a step up on others in the symbolic hierarchy to which we adhere (which is not neccesarily in place to ensure the propogation of our own genes).



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Concepts which have been proved to be useful in ordering things easily acquire such an authority over us that we forget their human origins and accept them as invariable.- Albert Einstein


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OfflineEpignostic
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Registered: 05/14/02
Posts: 6
Loc: Ramona, CA
Last seen: 15 years, 1 month
Re: Prediction.... [Re: buttonion]
    #631385 - 05/15/02 09:48 AM (15 years, 1 month ago)

Did you know that this was passed down as oral tradition for many generations until it was actually written? How many times were these stories told and slightly altered, embellished and new ones created during the numerous retellings?

Actually, the Jewish oral traditions were compiled into a seperate book called the Talmud. Jewish scribes considered their profession sacred and worthy of the severest judgement if they altered the sacred texts comprising the Torah and other prophetic manuscripts. Hypothetically, if they were altered, its still a cause for amazement since it prophesies the death of God--something, previously, totally strange for Jews and Gentiles. If anything they would have altered it as to say something very different.

I like how the "faithful" can easily RE-interpret and manipulate key words so that they can be somehow significant. A perfect example is the 69 "weeks"... how did you (or was it the angel in the first place?) manage to mistake a week for a period of seven years?

In hebrew, the word "weeks" is just that: a period of seven days, weeks, or years. We know that it was referring to years because "weeks" was used in that form in the preceding passage...and, most importantly, because it works out exactly as foretold.

Until you look at the Bible as a beautiful story chockful of metaphors rather than a literal history, you'll never really understand God's? or Jesus'? message.

Sure, the bible contains metaphor...is it all, no. Why do people take it literally? Because of the hundreds of prophesies concerning the first coming and second coming of Messiah, the intervention by God through His chosen people, the rise and fall of civilizations, the fate of the world, etc. Yes, the bible contains a beautiful story but you'll never truly understand it until you first take it as literal.

If your predicitions are "sufficiently specific," or lend themselves to scientific analysis, then we can proceed with the scientific method to rule out chance.

Well said. Many studies have been done on the probability of someone fulfilling all the prophesies concerning the first coming Messiah (Jesus). One illustration of such probabilty was devised by a mathematician who said that the chances are akin to filling the state of Texas with silver dollars and marking one of them. Then, being blindfolded, a person may chose to start in any location they chose, take a couple of steps and pick up one silver dollar. The chances of them picking the right one are those that Jesus overcame, or better yet, fulfilled.


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Simple cries pleasantly plea for a friendly follower as wisely whispers request to reveal the water's wandering


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Anonymous

Re: Prediction.... [Re: Epignostic]
    #631400 - 05/15/02 09:58 AM (15 years, 1 month ago)

Dude, I think you're responding to the wrong post...


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InvisibleSclorch
Clyster

Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 07/13/99
Posts: 4,805
Loc: On the Brink of Madness
Re: Prediction.... [Re: Epignostic]
    #631688 - 05/15/02 02:06 PM (15 years, 1 month ago)

Yeah, what the hell?
Is this your first time on "the net"?
Do you actually refer to it as "the net"???

hehehehe


--------------------
Note: In desperate need of a cure...


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InvisibleSwami
Eggshell Walker

Registered: 01/19/00
Posts: 15,413
Loc: In the hen house
Re: Prediction.... [Re: Epignostic]
    #631765 - 05/15/02 03:10 PM (15 years, 1 month ago)

We know that it was referring to years because "weeks" was used in that form in the preceding passage...and, most importantly, because it works out exactly as foretold.

Ah, the old standard of back-fitting the data. Take some uncertain time period divide by seven and , viola! That is amazingly the exact time period that was required to fulfill some vague prophecy.


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The proof is in the pudding.


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OfflineEpignostic
Stranger
Registered: 05/14/02
Posts: 6
Loc: Ramona, CA
Last seen: 15 years, 1 month
Re: Prediction.... [Re: Swami]
    #632711 - 05/16/02 08:50 AM (15 years, 1 month ago)

Honestly, its not very vague at all. The decree which starts the timeline is specified by exactly whats going to be built on the temple, it makes numerous refernces to what the Messiah will accomplish and even includes a reference point (the destruction of their temple) to show when it must have happened by. Some prophecies are vague some aren't...this one is definitely not!


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Simple cries pleasantly plea for a friendly follower as wisely whispers request to reveal the water's wandering


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InvisibleSclorch
Clyster

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Registered: 07/13/99
Posts: 4,805
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Re: Prediction.... [Re: Epignostic]
    #632937 - 05/16/02 11:25 AM (15 years, 1 month ago)

Wait....

Swami- I think Epignostic got the edited version of the Bible... you know, the one they sell in stores and stuff. I wish I had an extra copy of mine (2nd printing... ever), it is totally fucked up in its predictions. The official Bible editors decided to update the Bible, so it might have a fighting chance against Science (it doesn't, but that's another story).... I guess they should have left the predictions and dates section alone, eh?

Epignostic- If you want the original, unmolested version of the bible... you'll have a hard time finding one. But maybe... just maybe if you ask God....


--------------------
Note: In desperate need of a cure...


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OfflineBaby_Hitler
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Re: Prediction.... [Re: Sclorch]
    #633803 - 05/17/02 01:48 AM (15 years, 1 month ago)

Catholicism: Shit happens, and I deserve it.

Mormonism: Shit happens over and over again.

Atheism: There is no shit.

Jewish: Why does shit always happen to me?

Hinduism: This shit happened before.

TV evangelism: Shit won't happen if you send more money.

Buddhism: Shit happens, but it isn't really shit.

Protestant: Shit won't happen if I work harder.

Agnosticism: I'm not sure if shit happens at all.

Born-again Christianity: Shit happens. Praise the Lord!

Zen: What is the sound of shit happening?

Islam: If shit happens, take a hostage!

Jehovah's witness: Knock, knock...shit happens.

Hare Krishna: Shit happens. Hare, hare, hare rama.

Rastafarianism: Shit happens. Let's smoke some shit.



I would revise Islam:Shit happens. Blame it on everyone but yourself.



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OfflineBaby_Hitler
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Re: Prediction.... [Re: Epignostic]
    #633805 - 05/17/02 01:56 AM (15 years, 1 month ago)

It makes it alot easier when the judges want To see the correct coin.

"What does the coin we're looking for look like?"

"let me see that...yep, just like that one."

Don't forget about Nostradamus.





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InvisibleinfidelGOD
illusion

Registered: 04/18/02
Posts: 3,040
Loc: there
Re: Prediction.... [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #633811 - 05/17/02 02:18 AM (15 years, 1 month ago)


Atheists: I don't believe this shit!


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