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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: trendal]
    #5925463 -

we need to stockpile on SHITLOADS of spores/ growing supplies and meet in the forest.

imagine it a SHROOMERY NATION.

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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: Cowgold]
    #5925494 -

You seem to be the authority on oil.

Easy there, cowboy...I never said that. I'm just a guy who happens to be interested in energy sources.

You, on the other hand, are clearly displaying your lack of knowledge about oil production history.

Which is correct. After we started getting cheaper foreign oil, it was no longer profitable for domestic drilling companies to drill here. (oil bust of the 80s is a prime example) Domestic production costs were at an all time high and the cost per barrel began to drop because we were getting foreign oil for much lower costs.

You seem to be forgetting something called the "1973 oil crisis".

The price of foreign oil may have been lower in 1971 when US production peaked...but two years later when OPEC turned off its taps foreign oil definitely wasn't cheaper than US oil. It was a lot more expensive, in fact.

If, as you say, oil production peaked in 1971 and began to decline simply because foreign oil was cheaper at the time....then why didn't US oil production go back up two years later when the price of foreign oil shot through the roof?


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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free.
But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.

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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: trendal]
    #5925532 -

It probably takes time to gear up oil production, and by that time foreign oil prices had fallen again.

I'm sure we're drilling like crazy now.


--------------------
:orly:


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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: trendal]
    #5925541 -

"If, as you say, oil production peaked in 1971 and began to decline simply because foreign oil was cheaper at the time....then why didn't US oil production go back up two years later when the price of foreign oil shot through the roof? "



Producing a well takes time... the crisis of 73 was short lived. The ones who profited at the time were the ones with reserves.

Drilling a well is a huge gamble with nearly all the costs up front. Considering the 73 crisis was caused because issues with opec the situation was focused at correcting that relationship not producing domestic oil for an uncertain future.

(i've gotta go right now, but I'll check in on this thread later tonight)

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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: Microcosmatrix]
    #5925616 -

Well that's the thing...after the 73 crisis, prices didn't fall back to their previous levels - meaning foreign oil would still be much more expensive than it had been in 1971 when US production reached its peak.

Look here:
http://www.wtrg.com/oil_graphs/oilprice1947.gif

And note how, after the massive price spike in 1971, the price doesn't fall to anywhere near what it was until almost 15 years later.

Now you can't tell me it takes 15 years to get oil production ramped back up again...


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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free.
But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.

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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: Cowgold]
    #5925647 -

Cowgold said:
Producing a well takes time... the crisis of 73 was short lived. The ones who profited at the time were the ones with reserves.


The crisis itself may have been short-lived, but the price increase due to the crisis (and the next one, in 1979) would last for another 15 years.

Does it take 15 years to produce a well?


--------------------
Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free.
But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.

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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: trendal]
    #5925700 -

There is also quite a bit of evidence that over-reporting of oil reserves has occurred - that way a country can have a higher production quota (if a member of OPEC). Saudi Arabia claims it has 260boe but there is some data showing that it's likely significantly lower than that (some say 180boe). Earlier this year Royal Dutch/Shell even admitted to purposely overstating their reserves by 22%.

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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: trendal]
    #5926942 -

I know the oil industry from an industry perspective. It's been very difficult to make a profitable well because we've been competeing against cheap foreign oil. Bottom lines don't lie. Explain to me why current domestic production is high? (hint: refer to my previous posts)

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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: Cowgold]
    #5927907 -

Explain to me why current domestic production is high?

Define "high"....

From the US DOE website:

US oil production in kbpd (1000 barrels per day)
2000 - 5,822
2001 - 5,801
2002 - 5,746
2003 - 5,681
2004 - 5,419
2005 - 5,121

So where's the big increase?

Production at the end of 1971 was 9,637 kbpd...


--------------------
Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free.
But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.

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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: trendal]
    #5927925 -

in your wallet

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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: goobler]
    #5928010 -

goobler said:
in your wallet


:yesnod:

And yours, too, I gather :wink:


--------------------
Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free.
But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.

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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: trendal]
    #5928012 -

oh yes, one can really make a killing

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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: trendal]
    #5928028 -

I've been using the wrong word. And Production will rise in the coming years.


*exploration.

The economics of oil I've posted in this thread are correct, btw. And, I'm pretty surprised by the numbers you're showing.

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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: Cowgold]
    #5928080 -

Cowgold said:
And, I'm pretty surprised by the numbers you're showing.


I'm not surprised...one of the main predictions of Peak Oil is that, after the peak for any given field or group of fields, any new production will only serve to offset the declining production of existing fields. New production will continue to come online over the years, but it won't increase the total US production numbers much, if at all.



Production of oil in the continental US will never again reach the peak of the 1970's.

Economics doesn't trump geology and physics :wink:


--------------------
Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free.
But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.

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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: goobler]
    #5928089 -

goobler said:
oh yes, one can really make a killing



that's bullshit when you consider the down to earth people like me would pay $1000 to convert to everclear.... ethanol, and run a 10 acre farm on nothin but moonshine.


--------------------
"War Doesn't Decide Who's Right... It Decides Who's Left."

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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: Kerbouchard]
    #5928098 -

dont talk outta your ass
your lips will chap

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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: trendal]
    #5928213 -

trendal said:
Economics doesn't trump geology and physics :wink:


Nobody said it did.

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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: goobler]
    #5928217 -

I dont see anything wrong with making a quick 10 grand here or there...........


Whats the barrel at today? 70 and change?

I wonder if its to late to buy in?

What are some companies out there to research into.

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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: Corporal Kielbasa]
    #5928246 -

Check out a few oil services companies. And pretty much anything to do with the barnett shale.

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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: Corporal Kielbasa]
    #5928257 -

and remember

if you want to trade commodities, just consider the $$ gone...cause its not guaranteed

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