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InvisibleSilversoul
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Re: NY Times runs Peak Oil article [Re: afoaf]
    #4567128 - 08/22/05 04:26 PM (18 years, 5 months ago)

I'm planning to do so.


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InvisibletrendalM
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Re: NY Times runs Peak Oil article [Re: Silversoul]
    #4567422 - 08/22/05 05:51 PM (18 years, 5 months ago)

You think everyone is going to just run out and buy a new car, when they are introduced? Do you think everyone (or even most) people would have the money to buy a completely new vehicle?

What about the cost of the new technology itself? How much will that add to the price of all these new cars?

What do we do with the old ones? (does anyone know the average lifetime of a car?)

I didn't mean that it will take decades to create the technology...it will take decades to replace the current technology, even if we started doing so today.


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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free.
But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.


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InvisibleSilversoul
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Re: NY Times runs Peak Oil article [Re: trendal]
    #4567470 - 08/22/05 06:11 PM (18 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

trendal said:
You think everyone is going to just run out and buy a new car, when they are introduced? Do you think everyone (or even most) people would have the money to buy a completely new vehicle?



Apparently we misunderstood each other. I was referring to the time it would take for this technology to be incorporated into new vehicles, not to overtake current vehicles completely.

Quote:

What about the cost of the new technology itself? How much will that add to the price of all these new cars?



Once these vehicles become mass-produced, the price should be competitive with current models. That, on top of the savings in fuel would make it a major bargain.

http://www.rmi.org/sitepages/pid401.php

Quote:

What do we do with the old ones? (does anyone know the average lifetime of a car?)

I didn't mean that it will take decades to create the technology...it will take decades to replace the current technology, even if we started doing so today.



Even so, simply applying this technology to new cars would amount to enourmous fuel savings. We're talking about a standard 4-door sedan getting 90mpg in the short term(before hydrogen fuel cells are implemented). Even assuming that new car purchases stay the same(they will probably increase, considering the savings involved), we're looking at a serious drop in petroleum consumption.


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Invisibleblink
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Re: NY Times runs Peak Oil article *DELETED* [Re: Silversoul]
    #4567915 - 08/22/05 07:51 PM (18 years, 5 months ago)

Post deleted by blinkidiot

Reason for deletion: Im sorry



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InvisibleSilversoul
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Re: NY Times runs Peak Oil article [Re: blink]
    #4568049 - 08/22/05 08:19 PM (18 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

blinkidiot said:
Quote:

Paradigm said:before hydrogen fuel cells are implemented




Where will the hydrogen come from?



Don't know. I assume it will be from water. But really, that's irrelevant here. The point is that this technology will reduce our reliance on oil significantly enough to avert an oil crisis long enough to move to an alternative fuel source, most likely hydrogen. I don't know the specifics about hydrogen fuel, but I do know that it's widely being considered as the leading candidate to replace gasoline, and with a few advances in technology, could become practical.


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OfflineLun4e
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Re: NY Times runs Peak Oil article [Re: Silversoul]
    #4568205 - 08/22/05 08:56 PM (18 years, 5 months ago)

Hydrogen can be made from water but that requires electricity which requires energy ~ oil. Some forms of algae make hydrogen during photosynthesis, so you could in theory have hydrogen producing algae farms. More likely is bio-diesel will replace oil energy sources as it is made using the sun's energy. Hemp, canola, and other plants have a good yield of oil, and using biomass from the same crops methanol can be made. Methanol+Vegetable Oil=Bio-Diesel. Algaes are even more efficient in making oil and I believe vast algae pools in the desert will be the main source of biodiesel oil feedstock, with hemp fiber being fermented to provide the nescessary alcohol.

Hooray for Bio-Diesel.

Check THIS out!


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How to make your 50/50 casing 50/50+ with only eggshells:
http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=6519162&page=0&vc=#Post6519162


Edited by Lun4e (08/22/05 09:00 PM)


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InvisibleSilversoul
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Re: NY Times runs Peak Oil article [Re: Silversoul]
    #4568792 - 08/22/05 10:44 PM (18 years, 5 months ago)

Update: I found a page that might help answer your questions about hydrogen.

clicky


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InvisibletrendalM
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Re: NY Times runs Peak Oil article [Re: Silversoul]
    #4569923 - 08/23/05 08:59 AM (18 years, 5 months ago)

Please note that hydrogen is not a "fuel source".

Hydrogen, at least on Earth, is an energy carrier....much like a battery.

There are no sources of elemental or molecular hydrogen on the Earth. Nearly all the hydrogen on the planet is tied up in molecules of water and other compounds. When hydrogen is bound in such a state, it is unavailable for use as a "fuel"...first it must be separated from the compound.

That separation takes energy, usually in the form of electricity.

Hydrogen is also gotten in large quantities from oil and natural gas...which just brings us back to square 1: we're running out of both.

As well, nearly all of the hydrogen-producing methods require more energy to make the free hydrogen than you get out of burning that hydrogen. These methods are actually energy sinks - a net loss of energy just so we can have our magical "hydrogen fuel" to use in the new-age cars.

Hydrogen is being touted by the media and government as a scape-goat. It makes it look like they're doing something about high oil prices. They aren't.


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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free.
But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.


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InvisibletrendalM
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Re: NY Times runs Peak Oil article [Re: Silversoul]
    #4569960 - 08/23/05 09:10 AM (18 years, 5 months ago)

Ok on the page you posted, here are the "sources" of hydrogen mentioned:

Electrolysis - as I already mentioned, it takes more energy to electrolise water than you will get out of the hydrogen. Electrolysis is an energy-sink (I actually did my grade 8 science project on this...it's not hard to get hydrogen, but from the energy you put in you get astoundingly little hydrogen).

Steam-Methane Reformation - uses natural gas and other petroleum products. Natural gas will probably peak and begin decline within a few years of oil peaking (it has probably already peaked here in North America).

Biomass Gasification - probably the best option listed on the page...but suffers from several drawbacks (just like the others). How do you produce enough biomass to get enough hydrogen to power all our cars and economy? It currently takes an aweful lot of energy - in the form of petroleum - to do the intensive agriculture required to produce such a large biomass. As well, the process of converting biomass->synthetic gas->hydrogen requires the whole deal to be heated up quite hot. This, again, requires energy to do - a lot of it.

Photoelectrolysis - still a very immature science, that hasn't left the lab yet (as mentioned on the page). In addition, the creation of semiconductor panels such as these (and photoelectric panels) requires a great deal of...you guessed it!...more oil.

Hydrogen From Coal - suffers from some of the same problems as the hydrogen from methane idea discussed above. While the peak in coal production is definitely a hundred or two years behind the current peak for oil...it too will run out. Not to mention the devastating effect on the environment that simply mining the coal in the first place will cause (have you ever seen a strip mine? dear god...). It also will take a great deal of energy to conver the coal into gas, and then into hydrogen.

BioHydrogen - this is also not a bad idea, and could probably be set up to use a great deal LESS energy than the biomass idea...but it's still in it's infancy. Another prospect still in the lab. After looking at it, I seriously doubt it could be scaled up enough to provide the kind of energy we currently get from oil.


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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free.
But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.


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InvisibletrendalM
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Re: NY Times runs Peak Oil article [Re: Silversoul]
    #4570006 - 08/23/05 09:27 AM (18 years, 5 months ago)

This all comes down to simple thermodynamics, namely Law #2: you can't get something from nothing.

Any conversion of energy from one form into another will always run at a net loss. In the conversion, you will lose some of the available energy - without fail.

With that in mind, it is generally a good idea to keep energy in the form you find it if at all possible. If you have electricity...keep it as electricity. Use it in electric motors and such. Converting your electricity into, say, hydrogen will always result in a net loss of energy. Sure, now you have some fancy hydrogen (waiting to explode) that you can use in your cars....but you've just waisted a significant portion of the initial energy to make your fancy hydrogen. You could have powered more cars by simply by leaving the energy as electricity.

Now on the Earth there are only three true sources of energy: solar, nuclear, and to a very limited extent, gravitation. All other forms of energy that we find here on Earth are simply conversions from one of these two types of energy source.

We can collect energy directly from sunlight, and have been doing so on a small scale for thousands of years. Whenever you eat a plant, you are using energy provided directly to the plant from the sun. Farming is a type of energy gathering, using the energy as it comes from the sun. Solar-panels are also a way to directly capture this energy.

We also collect energy indirectly from the sun, in a number of ways. Hydroelectric dams use falling water to produce energy...but that water was brought up to the height that it is by the sun. It evaporates water, which rains down on the highlands and then flows down rivers to our generating dams.

Oil is another indirect solar form of energy...but it's also a special case. The amount of energy we can get from plants or falling water is more or less fixed - due to there being a fixed amount of energy coming from the sun at any given time. Oil is different because it is stored solar energy. Plants and other organisms over perhaps millions of years have stored some energy from the sun and then turned into oil. Every ounce of oil contains billions of hours of solar energy.

Fossil fuels are the only known "solar storage" fuel that exists on this planet. Every other "source" of fuel we can currently use involves only minor storage of solar energy - and so can only provide minor amounts of energy to us.

I seriously doubt we will just happen upon another fuel source like petroleum any time in the near future (when we do, it will probably some start-trek like fuel of the future...and not come from the sun at all!). Oil has given us a one-shot try at industrial civilization. It will be millions of years before the Earth is able to store up as much energy as it has with oil.

That's a few million years we can't wait for.


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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free.
But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.


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