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InvisibletrendalM
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NY Times runs Peak Oil article
    #4562140 - 08/21/05 12:14 PM (11 years, 6 months ago)

Well it appears the news is finally leaking out into the mainstream media...

I'm not from New York...how big of a newspaper is the Times? Does anyone have the actual print copy from today (Sun, Aug 21)? Is this article actually in the print copy, as well?

Here's the first page, click on the link to read the rest:

The Breaking Point
By PETER MAASS
Published: August 21, 2005

The largest oil terminal in the world, Ras Tanura, is located on the eastern coast of Saudi Arabia, along the Persian Gulf. From Ras Tanura's control tower, you can see the classic totems of oil's dominion -- supertankers coming and going, row upon row of storage tanks and miles and miles of pipes. Ras Tanura, which I visited in June, is the funnel through which nearly 10 percent of the world's daily supply of petroleum flows. Standing in the control tower, you are surrounded by more than 50 million barrels of oil, yet not a drop can be seen.

The oil is there, of course. In a technological sleight of hand, oil can be extracted from the deserts of Arabia, processed to get rid of water and gas, sent through pipelines to a terminal on the gulf, loaded onto a supertanker and shipped to a port thousands of miles away, then run through a refinery and poured into a tanker truck that delivers it to a suburban gas station, where it is pumped into an S.U.V. -- all without anyone's actually glimpsing the stuff. So long as there is enough oil to fuel the global economy, it is not only out of sight but also out of mind, at least for consumers.

I visited Ras Tanura because oil is no longer out of mind, thanks to record prices caused by refinery shortages and surging demand -- most notably in the United States and China -- which has strained the capacity of oil producers and especially Saudi Arabia, the largest exporter of all. Unlike the 1973 crisis, when the embargo by the Arab members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries created an artificial shortfall, today's shortage, or near-shortage, is real. If demand surges even more, or if a producer goes offline because of unrest or terrorism, there may suddenly not be enough oil to go around.

As Aref al-Ali, my escort from Saudi Aramco, the giant state-owned oil company, pointed out, ''One mistake at Ras Tanura today, and the price of oil will go up.'' This has turned the port into a fortress; its entrances have an array of gates and bomb barriers to prevent terrorists from cutting off the black oxygen that the modern world depends on. Yet the problem is far greater than the brief havoc that could be wrought by a speeding zealot with 50 pounds of TNT in the trunk of his car. Concerns are being voiced by some oil experts that Saudi Arabia and other producers may, in the near future, be unable to meet rising world demand. The producers are not running out of oil, not yet, but their decades-old reservoirs are not as full and geologically spry as they used to be, and they may be incapable of producing, on a daily basis, the increasing volumes of oil that the world requires. ''One thing is clear,'' warns Chevron, the second-largest American oil company, in a series of new advertisements, ''the era of easy oil is over.''

In the past several years, the gap between demand and supply, once considerable, has steadily narrowed, and today is almost negligible. The consequences of an actual shortfall of supply would be immense. If consumption begins to exceed production by even a small amount, the price of a barrel of oil could soar to triple-digit levels. This, in turn, could bring on a global recession, a result of exorbitant prices for transport fuels and for products that rely on petrochemicals -- which is to say, almost every product on the market. The impact on the American way of life would be profound: cars cannot be propelled by roof-borne windmills. The suburban and exurban lifestyles, hinged to two-car families and constant trips to work, school and Wal-Mart, might become unaffordable or, if gas rationing is imposed, impossible. Carpools would be the least imposing of many inconveniences; the cost of home heating would soar -- assuming, of course, that climate-controlled habitats do not become just a fond memory.

But will such a situation really come to pass? That depends on Saudi Arabia. To know the answer, you need to know whether the Saudis, who possess 22 percent of the world's oil reserves, can increase their country's output beyond its current limit of 10.5 million barrels a day, and even beyond the 12.5-million-barrel target it has set for 2009. (World consumption is about 84 million barrels a day.) Saudi Arabia is the sole oil superpower. No other producer possesses reserves close to its 263 billion barrels, which is almost twice as much as the runner-up, Iran, with 133 billion barrels. New fields in other countries are discovered now and then, but they tend to offer only small increments. For example, the much-contested and as-yet-unexploited reserves in the Alaska National Wildlife Refuge are believed to amount to about 10 billion barrels, or just a fraction of what the Saudis possess.

... (rest available at link below)

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/21/magazine/21OIL.html


--------------------
You're here because you know something.
What you know you can't explain,
But you feel it;
You've felt it your entire life.
That there's something wrong with the world.
You don't know what it is, but it's there....
Like a splinter in your mind...
Driving you mad.


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InvisibleOneMoreRobot3021
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Registered: 06/06/03
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Re: NY Times runs Peak Oil article [Re: trendal]
    #4562191 - 08/21/05 12:33 PM (11 years, 6 months ago)

That wasn't printed in the paper itself, it was printed in the New York Times Magazine, a supplement included with every Sunday edition of the New York Times.  It's an awesome magazine, that has a history of publishing stories that wouldn't pop up elsewhere. :thumbup:


--------------------
Acid doesn't give you truths; it builds machines that push the envelope of perception. Whatever revelations came to me then have dissolved like skywriting. All I really know is that those few years saddled me with a faith in the redemptive potential of the imagination which, however flat, stale and unprofitable the world seems to me now, I cannot for the life of me shake.

-Erik Davis


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InvisibletrendalM
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Re: NY Times runs Peak Oil article [Re: OneMoreRobot3021]
    #4562202 - 08/21/05 12:38 PM (11 years, 6 months ago)

Do a lot of people read the magazine insert?


--------------------
You're here because you know something.
What you know you can't explain,
But you feel it;
You've felt it your entire life.
That there's something wrong with the world.
You don't know what it is, but it's there....
Like a splinter in your mind...
Driving you mad.


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InvisibleOneMoreRobot3021
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Re: NY Times runs Peak Oil article [Re: trendal]
    #4562206 - 08/21/05 12:39 PM (11 years, 6 months ago)

I would say so - everyone that gets the Sunday times at least. It's a fucking awesome magazine, they always have the greatest cover articles. They've had good ones about the Iraq war and about yer average Wal-Mart employee, exposes on politicans and what not.


--------------------
Acid doesn't give you truths; it builds machines that push the envelope of perception. Whatever revelations came to me then have dissolved like skywriting. All I really know is that those few years saddled me with a faith in the redemptive potential of the imagination which, however flat, stale and unprofitable the world seems to me now, I cannot for the life of me shake.

-Erik Davis


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OfflineRedstorm
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Re: NY Times runs Peak Oil article [Re: trendal]
    #4562212 - 08/21/05 12:41 PM (11 years, 6 months ago)

We have enough coal to convert to oil for hundreds of years.


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InvisibletrendalM
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Re: NY Times runs Peak Oil article [Re: Redstorm]
    #4562222 - 08/21/05 12:44 PM (11 years, 6 months ago)

At what cost?

Could you, personally, afford oil and the things that come from oil (ie: just about everything) if that oil costs in excess of $100 per barrel? What about $200? $400?

This isn't the end of oil....it's the end of cheap oil.


--------------------
You're here because you know something.
What you know you can't explain,
But you feel it;
You've felt it your entire life.
That there's something wrong with the world.
You don't know what it is, but it's there....
Like a splinter in your mind...
Driving you mad.


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OfflineQuantumMeltdown
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Re: NY Times runs Peak Oil article [Re: trendal]
    #4562238 - 08/21/05 12:50 PM (11 years, 6 months ago)

Thats it were fucked. Time to break out the bikes guys.


--------------------
-QuantumMeltdown

Total abstinence is so excellent a thing that it cannot be carried to too great an extent. In my passion for it I even carry it so far as to totally abstain from total abstinence itself.
  -Mark Twain

"The time has come the walrus said, little oysters  hide their heads, my Twain of thought is loosely bound I guess its time to Mark this down, Be good and you will be lonesome
Be lonesome and you will be free
Live a lie and you will live to regret it
That's what livin' is to me
That's what livin' is to me"
Jimmy Buffett


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InvisibletrendalM
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Registered: 04/17/01
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Re: NY Times runs Peak Oil article [Re: Redstorm]
    #4562243 - 08/21/05 12:51 PM (11 years, 6 months ago)

I should also mention that in a typical coal liquefaction plant, about 40% of the coal's energy content is lost or used during the liquefaction process.

Which means that, realistically, at most only 60% of those "hundreds of years" worth of coal could be used for actual energy needs.


--------------------
You're here because you know something.
What you know you can't explain,
But you feel it;
You've felt it your entire life.
That there's something wrong with the world.
You don't know what it is, but it's there....
Like a splinter in your mind...
Driving you mad.


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OfflineNignugnot
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Registered: 08/04/05
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Re: NY Times runs Peak Oil article [Re: trendal]
    #4562251 - 08/21/05 12:54 PM (11 years, 6 months ago)

It's also the end of driving around and getting stoned on my favorite drivng road!?! Poo poo


--------------------
I'm an asymtope, neva gonna catch me!


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InvisibletrendalM
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Registered: 04/17/01
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Re: NY Times runs Peak Oil article [Re: QuantumMeltdown]
    #4562256 - 08/21/05 12:55 PM (11 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

QuantumMeltdown said:
Time to break out the bikes guys.




That's probably some of the best advice possible. I've already done so. I can now push 50km a day without too much trouble, after only a month of riding.

The bicycle is the most energy efficient form of transportation yet invented by humans.


--------------------
You're here because you know something.
What you know you can't explain,
But you feel it;
You've felt it your entire life.
That there's something wrong with the world.
You don't know what it is, but it's there....
Like a splinter in your mind...
Driving you mad.


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OfflineLethalX5
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Re: NY Times runs Peak Oil article [Re: trendal]
    #4562304 - 08/21/05 01:08 PM (11 years, 6 months ago)

there was a great post about peak oil yesterday in an other forum. here is the link

http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Cat/0/Number/4555381/an/0/page/0


--------------------
"To get what you've never had, You must do what you've never done."


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InvisibleKingOftheThing
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Re: NY Times runs Peak Oil article [Re: trendal]
    #4562319 - 08/21/05 01:12 PM (11 years, 6 months ago)

the TImes is the biggest NYC paper and it is also circulated nationally...probably the best known paper in the country


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InvisibleVvellum
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Registered: 05/24/04
Posts: 10,920
Re: NY Times runs Peak Oil article [Re: trendal]
    #4563397 - 08/21/05 06:25 PM (11 years, 6 months ago)

we are doomed.


Edited by bi0 (08/21/05 06:36 PM)


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OfflineGrav
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Re: NY Times runs Peak Oil article [Re: Vvellum]
    #4563425 - 08/21/05 06:30 PM (11 years, 6 months ago)

more bikes or longboards


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OfflineMighty Bop
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Re: NY Times runs Peak Oil article [Re: trendal]
    #4563429 - 08/21/05 06:31 PM (11 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

trendal said:
Quote:

QuantumMeltdown said:
Time to break out the bikes guys.




That's probably some of the best advice possible. I've already done so. I can now push 50km a day without too much trouble, after only a month of riding.

The bicycle is the most energy efficient form of transportation yet invented by humans.




Do you ride a mountain bike or road bike?


--------------------
"One attaineth whatever state of being one thinketh about at the last when relinquishing the body, being ever absorbed in the thought thereof." - Sri Krishna to Arjuna, Bhagavad Gita, viii, 6


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InvisibleVvellum
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Re: NY Times runs Peak Oil article [Re: Mighty Bop]
    #4563456 - 08/21/05 06:38 PM (11 years, 6 months ago)

I love riding my bike. It is my primary mode of transportation.


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OfflineboOM
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Re: NY Times runs Peak Oil article [Re: trendal]
    #4563506 - 08/21/05 06:50 PM (11 years, 6 months ago)

:thumbup:

very good article.


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OfflineTwister
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Re: NY Times runs Peak Oil article [Re: trendal]
    #4563543 - 08/21/05 06:58 PM (11 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

trendal said:
I should also mention that in a typical coal liquefaction plant, about 40% of the coal's energy content is lost or used during the liquefaction process.

Which means that, realistically, at most only 60% of those "hundreds of years" worth of coal could be used for actual energy needs.




Don't forget, the process would also require energy so coal would have to be burned to generate electricity, just so more coal could be turned into oil.


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InvisibletrendalM
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Registered: 04/17/01
Posts: 19,423
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Re: NY Times runs Peak Oil article [Re: Mighty Bop]
    #4565987 - 08/22/05 10:42 AM (11 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

Mighty Bop said:
Do you ride a mountain bike or road bike?




Mountain bike.


--------------------
You're here because you know something.
What you know you can't explain,
But you feel it;
You've felt it your entire life.
That there's something wrong with the world.
You don't know what it is, but it's there....
Like a splinter in your mind...
Driving you mad.


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InvisibletrendalM
point of inflection
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Registered: 04/17/01
Posts: 19,423
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: NY Times runs Peak Oil article [Re: Twister]
    #4565994 - 08/22/05 10:46 AM (11 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

Twister351 said:
Don't forget, the process would also require energy so coal would have to be burned to generate electricity, just so more coal could be turned into oil.




That's exactly my point.

Nothing we have discovered yet, no source of energy, gives us as much bang for our buck as oil does.

Stick a tube in the ground and, for at least a while, the stuff literally gushes out without any more help. In this light, oil is by far the most efficient source of energy yet discovered.

For coal you have to, literally, rip the Earth apart to get at it. Strip mining is a very energy-intensive process. In today's world, all coal mining requires a large amount of oil to run in the first place! Oil to build the machinery, and oil to run the machinery.


--------------------
You're here because you know something.
What you know you can't explain,
But you feel it;
You've felt it your entire life.
That there's something wrong with the world.
You don't know what it is, but it's there....
Like a splinter in your mind...
Driving you mad.


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