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InvisibletrendalM
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It's called PEAK OIL, goobler
    #5677635 - 05/26/06 04:32 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/4529898#Post4529898

Are we still on for the bet?

There's just a little over 2 months left before the August 1st deadline, and the price of oil is still riding over $70 a barrel! I think I'm going to be $80 richer come august :grin:

Oh, and blame the price on whatever you wish - I still think it's due to Peak Oil.


--------------------
Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free.
But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.


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Invisibleblink
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: trendal]
    #5677660 - 05/26/06 04:42 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

are you going to spend that $80 bucks on gas?


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InvisibletrendalM
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: blink]
    #5677667 - 05/26/06 04:44 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

Yeah, hopefully I'll have my bike by then :yesnod:


--------------------
Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free.
But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.


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Invisiblepsyka
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: trendal]
    #5677689 - 05/26/06 04:52 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

I told people around my area about it, as well. Here's what I said: "The supply for oil is going to become far overshadowed by demand, due to developing countries like China and India." They looked at me like I was crazy. I even showed them newspaper headlines that hint at peak oil! But noooo. Its ok, atleast I warned them.

BTW, this is [going to] trigger[ing] a massive war. How are you preparing, trendal?

I got me a few blast matches, a hennesy hammock, a composite bow, and now I'm looking for good quality hatchets :P I plan to head for the hills.


--------------------
As the life of a candle,
my wick will burn out.
But, the fire of my mind
shall beam into infinite.



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Invisibleblink
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler *DELETED* [Re: trendal]
    #5677698 - 05/26/06 04:55 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

Post deleted by blinkidiot

Reason for deletion: Im sorry



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InvisibletrendalM
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: psyka]
    #5677702 - 05/26/06 04:57 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

Head for the hills is my first gut reaction...then I remember there are a few hundred million other people on this continent that will probably have a similar idea :smirk:

How am I preparing? Mentally and physically - stay in shape and keep the mind sharp to deal with whatever comes. I don't think anyone can predict exactly how the human race will respond to an event like Peak Oil...so I try to avoid making such predictions (even in my own head - there they just lead to wild paranoia).

I think the best way to deal with this is to try and ride the wave. If you know what the cause of all this shit is (peak oil) then you will be better prepared to deal with the results as they happen. Stay mobile, stay fit, and stay alert.


--------------------
Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free.
But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.


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InvisibletrendalM
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: blink]
    #5677704 - 05/26/06 04:57 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

Yeah the motorcycle.

Any luck finding one for yourself, yet?


--------------------
Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free.
But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.


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Invisibleblink
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler *DELETED* [Re: trendal]
    #5677719 - 05/26/06 05:02 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

Post deleted by blinkidiot

Reason for deletion: Im sorry



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Invisiblepsyka
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: blink]
    #5677732 - 05/26/06 05:05 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

http://cgi.ebay.ca/SEGWAY-P133-BRAND-NEW_W0QQitemZ7243953926QQcategoryZ47351QQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

haha, get a Segway! If you get one, I'll get one. We could chase people down, with chains in our hands, on our Segways! It would be like an old persons version of Mad Max!


--------------------
As the life of a candle,
my wick will burn out.
But, the fire of my mind
shall beam into infinite.



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Invisiblepsyka
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: psyka]
    #5677738 - 05/26/06 05:07 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

DUDE! They got Segway spinners for the wheels!!!

http://cgi.ebay.ca/Segway-SPINNERS-Blue-...1QQcmdZViewItem


--------------------
As the life of a candle,
my wick will burn out.
But, the fire of my mind
shall beam into infinite.



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Invisiblebuckwheat
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: psyka]
    #5677799 - 05/26/06 05:28 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

psyka said:


BTW, this is [going to] trigger[ing] a massive war. How are you preparing, trendal?

I got me a few blast matches, a hennesy hammock, a composite bow, and now I'm looking for good quality hatchets :P I plan to head for the hills.




Im currently building up a survival suplies.So far i got some guns,water purifier,books,there is more to buy but the guns are more exiting im not in that big a hurry :grin:. A .22lr rifle is like the swiss army knife or leatherman of guns i think everyone shoud have one. you could easily carry 5,000 rounds with you. :thumbup:


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InvisiblePrisoner#1
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: trendal]
    #5677912 - 05/26/06 06:08 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

trendal said:
Oh, and blame the price on whatever you wish - I still think it's due to Peak Oil.





DeBeers stockpiles diamonds, they set the market price, they claim that they are
a rare and prescious gemstone, you can mine for diamonds in canada, huge deposits
are located in Sascatchewan... yeah, take a peak at the oil stockpiles and the
untapped reserves. OPEC pulled the same shit in the 70's now GW is in on the act


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InvisibletrendalM
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: Prisoner#1]
    #5677957 - 05/26/06 06:25 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

It's not a coincidence that US oil production peaked in 1971. The crisis was real then and it is now. The only difference is that in 71 the US could turn to other countries, but we don't have any other planets to turn to now. A new source of energy will need to be found, or we will be forced to reduce our usage.


--------------------
Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free.
But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.


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InvisiblePrisoner#1
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: trendal]
    #5677983 - 05/26/06 06:38 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

trendal said:
It's not a coincidence that US oil production peaked in 1971. The crisis was real then and it is now.




key word=production, this means that they stopped pumping from many of the wells
they were working, they obviously didnt cease drilling new ones or discovering
more oil, USGS maps support this, there are thousands of capped wells across
this country and locations for thousands more. remember in economics when they
mentioned supply and demand, well, restrict the supply and the price goes up.


Quote:

The only difference is that in 71 the US could turn to other countries, but we don't have any other planets to turn to now. A new source of energy will need to be found, or we will be forced to reduce our usage.




the US cold have tapped into many more wells, if we hit 'peak production' and
were nearing the end end of our oil production then why arent we completely
dependant on foriegn oil 35 years later?


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InvisibletrendalM
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: Prisoner#1]
    #5678009 - 05/26/06 06:50 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

the US cold have tapped into many more wells, if we hit 'peak production' and were nearing the end end of our oil production then why arent we completely dependant on foriegn oil 35 years later?

You should wiki "peak oil" and educate yourself on the subject.

The "peak" occurs more or less at the halfway point - not anywhere near the absolute end. In 1971 the US had pumped only about half of the oil it had in the ground, not most of it. It will take many more years for the rest to be pumped out (and it will never all be removed due to technical limitations).


--------------------
Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free.
But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.


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InvisibletrendalM
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: Prisoner#1]
    #5678016 - 05/26/06 06:53 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

As far as how good this all is for the oil co's...price spikes may be good for them by bringing in hugeprofit, but prolonged rises in price are detrimental - they result in demand destruction and conservation measures, both of which hurt future profits.


--------------------
Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free.
But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.


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InvisibleTheDude
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: Prisoner#1]
    #5678083 - 05/26/06 07:20 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

Prisoner#1 said:

key word=production, this means that they stopped pumping from many of the wells
they were working, they obviously didnt cease drilling new ones or discovering
more oil,  USGS maps support this, there are thousands of capped wells across
this country and locations for thousands more. remember in economics when they
mentioned supply and demand, well, restrict the supply and the price goes up.




(from my recent post in PAL before the thread got locked for being off topic:rolleyes:)
The discovery of new domestic oil reserves peaked in the 1930's and has been in steady decline since. Domestic oil production peaked in the 1970's and likewise has been in a steady decline. Worldwide discoveries peaked in the 1960's. These are facts. We simply aren't discovering new oil to keep up with demand and it has been this way for a while. This has nothing to do with flaws in our discovery methods, it stems from the fact there are no more supergiant oil reserves left to be found. No amount of new discovery projects or methods will change the fact that there is a finite amount of oil in the ground and nearly all of it has already been recovered.

"Of greater immediate consequence is that the major petroleum exporting nations have little additional reserve production capacity.16 Figure 4 shows the difference in the year of maximum discovery and annual discovery compared with production. The world's peak year of discovery was 1964 and 1980 the final year discovery paced consumption. The subsequent discovery falloff was, at least in part, from the resulting oil surplus. The trendline marked with dark diamonds shows the number of new drilling rigs each year. The trendline demonstrates that the spirited attempts to locate new oil fields peaked in 1980 and subsequently succumbed to geologic realties. The chart also illustrates that despite periods with price spikes over decades, little or no lessening of the consumption gap is evident. In the year 2002 total world discoveries was only approximately 15% of consumption, 3 - 6 Gbl.17 The failure to close the gap in recent years using sophisticated discovery and drilling technologies is clear as well."  *link

If domestic oil depletion is any indicator for a global production peak, then it should occur 40 years after the peak in discoveries (Hubbert predicted between 1990-2000). However, political events affect the supply and demand for fossil fuels and one of the reasons global oil production did not peak in the 90's like Hubbert predicted is due to the reduced supply made available during the oil embargo in the 1970's.  Iraq's current export rates are no where near the levels they were before the war so they may not peak until 2015.

Quote:

the US cold have tapped into many more wells, if we hit 'peak production' and were nearing the end end of our oil production then why arent we completely
dependant on foriegn oil 35 years later?




Production doesn't drop off to 0 after peak oil has passed.  A graph of oil reserve production follows a bell curve shape and indicates the supply of oil gradually reduces once the peak is passed.  I've read estimates of 2%-8% annual decline in global production after the peak occurs.  Since domestic production peaked in the 70's it has been in steady decline since.  New discoveries peaked in the 30's so there is no chance they'll pick up any time soon).  So over the years we have been forced by geological limitations to be more and more reliant on foreign sources of energy.  After world production peaks, there won't be any other source to turn to for energy, and that's when the shit hits the fan.  The growth required by modern industrial societies will no longer be sustainable and its anyone's guess as to what will happen then...

The main point is peak oil is rapidly approaching and it is foolish to waste time debating over the exact year/month/day it occurs. We will only truly know the peak after it has already passed, which will be far to late to react accordingly. Peak oil is on its way and there is little we can do to mitigate its effects.


--------------------
"this lebowski he called himself 'the dude'. now, 'dude', that's a name no one would self-apply where i come from but there was a lot about the dude that didn't make sense to me...."--the Stranger


Edited by TheDude (05/26/06 07:26 PM)


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InvisiblePrisoner#1
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: trendal]
    #5678086 - 05/26/06 07:21 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

trendal said:
The "peak" occurs more or less at the halfway point - not anywhere near the absolute end.




of course, which means we are on a serious decline by these 'facts', since
demand has more increased more than 10 times that in '71 we should have gone
through our stockpiles by 2000. but since that time thousands more wells have
been drilled and capped as 'reserves', some recent discussion regarding
ANWR and pumping the hundred+ wells in that area, prudhoe bay has 35 or more
ready for pumping all within a few miles of each other. these deposits are
measured in billions of barrels of oil. why do you think they have waited since
1995 to consider tapping these wells?




Quote:

In 1971 the US had pumped only about half of the oil it had in the ground, not most of it. It will take many more years for the rest to be pumped out (and it will never all be removed due to technical limitations).




again, that would mean our supplies were depleated by this time due to the
drastic increase in demand, as for recovery, when wells are first drilled,
theres lots of pressure, most from the natural gas pockets found with most
oil, this causes the geiser effect you often see in the movies, it's also
responsible for the majority of well fires. as the well is depleated of that
pressure, water is pumped in to build it again and extract the remaining oil

do you hear about the oil wells in alabama, georgia, tennessee, or even
Pennsylvania... of course not, you hear about texas, alaska, the coastal wells
and arab nations

Oil and Gas in Pennsylvania


we arent pulling from a few hundred wells


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InvisibleRandalFlagg
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: Prisoner#1]
    #5678101 - 05/26/06 07:25 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

I grew up about 20 minutes away from the town that had the first successful oil well in the world.


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InvisiblePrisoner#1
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: TheDude]
    #5678126 - 05/26/06 07:34 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

TheDude said:
Quote:

the US cold have tapped into many more wells, if we hit 'peak production' and were nearing the end end of our oil production then why arent we completely
dependant on foriegn oil 35 years later?




Production doesn't drop off to 0 after peak oil has passed.





my statement was similar to Huberts in our time to finality, maybe I should have been more clear, the 'crisis' of the 70's would have had us dipping more heavily into our reserves, ours should have been depleted earlier.

it's all still a scam, just as it was in the 70's


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InvisiblePrisoner#1
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: RandalFlagg]
    #5678129 - 05/26/06 07:35 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

RandalFlagg said:
I grew up about 20 minutes away from the town that had the first successful oil well in the world.




I drank gasoline


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OfflineMicrocosmatrix
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: Prisoner#1]
    #5678220 - 05/26/06 08:01 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

You drank the reserves!!

I wouldn't worry too much about all of this, we can always tear up the interstates and make more oil for tanks and fighter jets.


--------------------
:orly:



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InvisibleTheDude
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: Prisoner#1]
    #5678328 - 05/26/06 08:35 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

Prisoner#1 said:
my statement was similar to Huberts in our time to finality, maybe I should have been more clear, the 'crisis' of the 70's would have had us dipping more heavily into our reserves, ours should have been depleted earlier.

it's all still a scam, just as it was in the 70's




What are you talking about? The US couldn't dip into its known reserves because domestic production had peaked in the later part of 1970. After that point, less energy was acquired with every passing year, regardless of how badly they wanted to produce more. That was three years before the oil embargo occurred, thus making it impossible for the US to "dip more heavily into their reserves". They're already dipping as fast as they can, and it isn't enough! 1973-74 illustrated just how dependent the US is on foreign sources of oil.

But if you want to talk about the Strategic Petroleum Reserve its a joke, it only has about a month's supply of oil in there. It will barely put a dent in global peak oil...


--------------------
"this lebowski he called himself 'the dude'. now, 'dude', that's a name no one would self-apply where i come from but there was a lot about the dude that didn't make sense to me...."--the Stranger


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OfflineMicrocosmatrix
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: TheDude]
    #5678333 - 05/26/06 08:36 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

Sounds like fun! People will come outside again!


--------------------
:orly:



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InvisibletrendalM
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: Prisoner#1]
    #5678337 - 05/26/06 08:37 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

No you've missed the whole idea of "peak" oil.

After peaking, you can't pump oil out of a well or field any faster than you did at peak. That's what the peak is - the max rate of production you will ever hit for a given well, field, or group of fields (like a country). There is a limit to how fast oil can be pumped from the ground, it's not a matter of just running the pumps faster or opening the faucet.

So just because you have reserves doesn't mean you can use them - you can only use oil that's already been pumped, even though the oil you haven't gotten to yet is considered "in reserve".

All the wells that have been drilled in the continental US since 1971 have only served to offset the decline in production:


It's not that they've capped off the wells (they cap the ones that are done producing)...they just couldn't pump the oil fast enough to use it all up by now.


--------------------
Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free.
But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.


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InvisibleKerbouchardS
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: trendal]
    #5678350 - 05/26/06 08:41 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

peak oil, peak orgasm, same thing.


Those old croney fucks in Washington are running out of sperm, so they load their children up on the ideas of the destruction that could be brought about by the global realization that we JUST MIGHT run out of oil.


--------------------
"War Doesn't Decide Who's Right... It Decides Who's Left."


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OfflineMicrocosmatrix
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: trendal]
    #5678362 - 05/26/06 08:46 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

So what does the production graph for the middle east lookin' like? Got one of those handy too? Just curious how much our good ole' arab buddies have left.


--------------------
:orly:



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InvisibletrendalM
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: Microcosmatrix]
    #5678373 - 05/26/06 08:48 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

No, they like to keep their numbers secret :frown:

I got the data for that graph from the US Department of Energy, which is nice enough to publish their numbers to the public.


--------------------
Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free.
But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.


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OfflineMicrocosmatrix
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: trendal]
    #5678380 - 05/26/06 08:51 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

Damn. One should be able to infer that they realize that they are running low based on their actions.

How much possible space is there in the ground that could contain oil in the middle east? Has anyone ever tried to estimate the world's supply?


--------------------
:orly:



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InvisibletrendalM
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: Microcosmatrix]
    #5678387 - 05/26/06 08:53 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

Yeah the world's total supply, before any of it was pumped, is estimated at around 2 - 2.5 trillion barrels of "conventional" crude oil.

We've pumped about a trillion barrels of oil since it was first discovered, so we're somewhere around half of the estimate.


--------------------
Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free.
But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.


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OfflineMicrocosmatrix
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: trendal]
    #5678403 - 05/26/06 08:58 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

And our use is rising exponantially. So while we may have 1.5 trillion barrels left, it all comes up at the usual rate, and is about to probably start declining if it hasn't already done so... While we are using more and more of it.

Interesting opposition of forces there. How long do you think before lack of supply starts seriously crashing demand? Interefering with the delivery of groceries to supermarkets, etc. etc.?


--------------------
:orly:



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InvisiblePrisoner#1
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: trendal]
    #5678405 - 05/26/06 08:58 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

trendal said:
After peaking, you can't pump oil out of a well or field any faster than you did at peak. That's what the peak is - the max rate of production you will ever hit for a given well, field, or group of fields (like a country). There is a limit to how fast oil can be pumped from the ground, it's not a matter of just running the pumps faster or opening the faucet.




well then the peak could increase with higher volume pumps, as new technology
becomes available it can be implemented to pump faster therefore we can hit new
peaks every few years... therefore theres never a shortage, our wells will never
run dry :smirk:



Quote:

So just because you have reserves doesn't mean you can use them - you can only use oil that's already been pumped, even though the oil you haven't gotten to yet is considered "in reserve".




reserves can be use too discribe already pumped oil as well as wells that are
capable of producing but not yet being pumped, the oil still has to be refined
in order to be usable, otherwise it's 'crude'.

Quote:

It's not that they've capped off the wells (they cap the ones that are done producing)...they just couldn't pump the oil fast enough to use it all up by now.




they cap wells that can produce billions of barrels as well, not just dead ones,
'dry' wells arent dry, they're full of water with traces of crude.

Quote:

    * As a shareholder I also know that of all the oil ever known to exist in the Texas and Oklahoma oil fields, only one-third has been removed from the ground, with the remaining two-thirds still in the ground. Why? Because it is cheaper to buy Saudi Arabian oil. When the world price of oil goes up, the oil industry will bring their Texas/Oklahoma oil out of the ground. So again, we do not need more oil in America. All we need is already here in capped oil wells." --Sam Booher, a shareholder in ExxonMobil, Phillips Petroleum Company and BP-Amoco Oil Companies and chairman of the Georgia Chapter of the Sierra Club. Oil and Gas Reporter, September 1, 2001 http://www.oilandgasreporter.com/stories/090101/cov_opinions.shtml






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OfflineMicrocosmatrix
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: Prisoner#1]
    #5678414 - 05/26/06 09:00 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:


well then the peak could increase with higher volume pumps, as new technology
becomes available it can be implemented to pump faster therefore we can hit new
peaks every few years... therefore theres never a shortage




I think it has to seep through the rocks to be pumped out,and that happens at a certain rate. it's not like there's a big huge swimming pool of oil underground.

Quote:

our wells will never run dry




:lol: :lolz0rz: :rofl2:


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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: Microcosmatrix]
    #5678438 - 05/26/06 09:06 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

you might be suprised, the reason mid east oil is so cheap is because they can
poke a stick in the ground and hit oil, no real drilling involved, theirs is
'surface' oil, ours is under rock, usualy in large pockets


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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: Microcosmatrix]
    #5678449 - 05/26/06 09:08 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

How long do you think before lack of supply starts seriously crashing demand? Interefering with the delivery of groceries to supermarkets, etc. etc.?

I think demand destruction has already started, to some extent, but I'm not sure if or when it will come to supermarkets not having food. Pay attention to the energy situation of the poorer countries, they'll be the first to suffer while the price goes up.


--------------------
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But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.


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InvisibleTheDude
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: Microcosmatrix]
    #5678450 - 05/26/06 09:09 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

Microcosmatrix said:
Damn. One should be able to infer that they realize that they are running low based on their actions.




Actually, they realize they have the US by the balls because even though they're running low themselves, its the last of it left. Check out what Hugo Chavez has been saying about the US lately and recall Ahmadinejad's proclamation that the Holocaust is a myth. These leaders know they can get away with outrageous statements because of the US dependency on their oil.


--------------------
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: trendal]
    #5678456 - 05/26/06 09:10 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

trendal said:
Pay attention to the energy situation of the poorer countries, they'll be the first to suffer while the price goes up.




would you consider Iran to be a poorer country?


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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: trendal]
    #5678463 - 05/26/06 09:12 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

Everyone will pay, the poorest will be hit hardest until the poor can't afford energy at all. Next will come the middle class, and that's when the fun starts.

5 gallons? That will be $487.50 please.


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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: Prisoner#1]
    #5678474 - 05/26/06 09:14 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

Sorry, I should have said "poorer oil-importing countries".

Iran can produce more oil than it can use and then some, it doesn't have an energy problem.


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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: trendal]
    #5678487 - 05/26/06 09:19 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

I'm savin' my acid for the PEAK OIL riots!!!


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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: trendal]
    #5678492 - 05/26/06 09:20 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

trendal said:
Iran can produce more oil than it can use and then some, it doesn't have an energy problem.




there was an oil 'shortage' in Iran, Peter (my brothers neighbor) is Iranian,
he said gas prices climbed to 25 cents a gallon, his neighbor (in iran) filled
his swimming pool with gasoline to hoard the stuff because of this shortage
that pool of gas caught fire, burned several houses in the process.

they have the same energy problems we have


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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: Prisoner#1]
    #5678499 - 05/26/06 09:21 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

That made no sense


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InvisiblePrisoner#1
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: Microcosmatrix]
    #5678507 - 05/26/06 09:23 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

nothing makes sense to you


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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: trendal]
    #5678521 - 05/26/06 09:26 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

Mental masturbation. Peak oil... Cars. Fucking makes me sick. I live and die by the land. I already have acres of land for stills for my own fuel. To fuel the tractor, to fuel the land. Twenty acres on river and loamy sand. Future is looking bright,
PEAK OIL, peak my ass. Those motherfuckers can peek at the predicted numbers all they want. What if the number puncher was a *gasp* terrorist, or perhaps the old fargies, still wearing white curl wigs, in the white-house.


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InvisibleTheDude
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: Microcosmatrix]
    #5678523 - 05/26/06 09:26 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

Microcosmatrix said:
Everyone will pay, the poorest will be hit hardest until the poor can't afford energy at all. Next will come the middle class, and that's when the fun starts.




When it hits the poor its going to hit everybody. This affects all aspects of the global society. Agriculture is highly dependent on fossil fuels for the production of fertilizers, tending of fields and delivery of the final product. PO will hinder a nation's ability to trade commodities. The travel industry along with entire cities that rely on tourism will collapse. Production costs related to acquiring other sources of energy will skyrocket. Its not as simple as poor people being unable to drive or heat their houses. This is going to affect every sector of modern society and I doubt the middle or upper classes can buy their way to safety. It will affect everybody.


--------------------
"this lebowski he called himself 'the dude'. now, 'dude', that's a name no one would self-apply where i come from but there was a lot about the dude that didn't make sense to me...."--the Stranger


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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: TheDude]
    #5678554 - 05/26/06 09:34 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

The end of civilization. Stock up on vegetable and other seeds, tools, food, and weapons.

When the internet goes down, meet me in the woods. :grin:


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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: trendal]
    #5679644 - 05/27/06 05:38 AM (17 years, 8 months ago)

sure the bets on

the $80 is nothing compared to the money I've made in the comodies end of it

I still don't think its peak oil though


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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: goobler]
    #5679861 - 05/27/06 08:55 AM (17 years, 8 months ago)

yeah yeah peak oil... civilizations rise and fall all the time. does anyone actually think that we can continue living the way we are much longer? ...so out of touch?

goobler, what type of comodies? im interested in precious metals but need some guidence


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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: BlueRidge]
    #5679889 - 05/27/06 09:19 AM (17 years, 8 months ago)

right now I am dabbling in Oil, unleaded gas, gold and copper


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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: goobler]
    #5679903 - 05/27/06 09:36 AM (17 years, 8 months ago)

furures, orange juice and pork bellies.... both will be good this year


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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: Prisoner#1]
    #5680551 - 05/27/06 02:06 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

very true


stupidity looks good as well, may hit an all time high


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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler *DELETED* [Re: trendal]
    #5680692 - 05/27/06 03:04 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

Post deleted by blinkidiot

Reason for deletion: Im sorry



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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: blink]
    #5680698 - 05/27/06 03:06 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

I'm sure you'll find a way of getting some....blinkmeister!


--------------------
Acid doesn't give you truths; it builds machines that push the envelope of perception. Whatever revelations came to me then have dissolved like skywriting. All I really know is that those few years saddled me with a faith in the redemptive potential of the imagination which, however flat, stale and unprofitable the world seems to me now, I cannot for the life of me shake.

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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: trendal]
    #5925306 - 08/02/06 12:38 PM (17 years, 5 months ago)

Well it's August 2nd and the price is well over $50/bbl :wink:

http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/4529898#Post4529898

The price closed yesterday just above $74/bbl.


--------------------
Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free.
But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.


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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: trendal]
    #5925311 - 08/02/06 12:41 PM (17 years, 5 months ago)

what are you gonna do with your barrel of oil?


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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: Prisoner#1]
    #5925361 - 08/02/06 12:58 PM (17 years, 5 months ago)

I'm gonna sit on it until the price doubles :grin:


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But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.


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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: trendal]
    #5925373 - 08/02/06 01:04 PM (17 years, 5 months ago)

damned arabs


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InvisibleCowgold
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: trendal]
    #5925403 - 08/02/06 01:14 PM (17 years, 5 months ago)

Oil production peaked in the 70's because we started getting cheaper foreign oil. There's been a major domestic production spike recently because it's become profitable to drill domestically again.

Oil is still the cheapest fuel available and will continue to be for 10-15 years. All that will happen is oil will slowly become a more costly fuel until a cheaper fuel is available. The change will be gradual and it won't be as devastating as many of you think.

There will always be a demand for oil.

This is what happened with coal. Coal is still mined and used industrially. Though, near the turn of the 20th century we began to switch from coal to oil. This is because oil simply became the most economical viable fuel.


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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: Cowgold]
    #5925433 - 08/02/06 01:25 PM (17 years, 5 months ago)

Oil production peaked in the 70's because we started getting cheaper foreign oil.

No.

You turned to foreign oil because US production had reached its peak. Up to that point, US oil was cheaper than foreign oil but after the peak foreign oil became cheaper - not because the price of foreign oil had dropped...but because the price of US oil had risen (due to the peak in production).

There's been a major domestic production spike recently because it's become profitable to drill domestically again.

True, but the spike has not come anywhere near the 1971 peak of production. That's why it is called the peak. :wink:


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But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.


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InvisibleCowgold
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: trendal]
    #5925459 - 08/02/06 01:36 PM (17 years, 5 months ago)

You seem to be the authority on oil. 

:rolleyes:

What I said was...

"Oil production peaked in the 70's because we started getting cheaper foreign oil."

Which is correct.  After we started getting cheaper foreign oil, it was no longer profitable for domestic drilling companies to drill here. (oil bust of the 80s is a prime example)  Domestic production costs were at an all time high and the cost per barrel began to drop because we were getting foreign oil for much lower costs. 

I'm not argueing with you about the amount of oil available, only that production dropped for other reasons.  This happened not because it wasn't there to be drilled, but because demand was at an all time high and we began getting it cheaper elsewhere.


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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: trendal]
    #5925463 - 08/02/06 01:38 PM (17 years, 5 months ago)

we need to stockpile on SHITLOADS of spores/ growing supplies and meet in the forest.

imagine it a SHROOMERY NATION.


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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: Cowgold]
    #5925494 - 08/02/06 01:54 PM (17 years, 5 months ago)

You seem to be the authority on oil.

Easy there, cowboy...I never said that. I'm just a guy who happens to be interested in energy sources.

You, on the other hand, are clearly displaying your lack of knowledge about oil production history.

Which is correct. After we started getting cheaper foreign oil, it was no longer profitable for domestic drilling companies to drill here. (oil bust of the 80s is a prime example) Domestic production costs were at an all time high and the cost per barrel began to drop because we were getting foreign oil for much lower costs.

You seem to be forgetting something called the "1973 oil crisis".

The price of foreign oil may have been lower in 1971 when US production peaked...but two years later when OPEC turned off its taps foreign oil definitely wasn't cheaper than US oil. It was a lot more expensive, in fact.

If, as you say, oil production peaked in 1971 and began to decline simply because foreign oil was cheaper at the time....then why didn't US oil production go back up two years later when the price of foreign oil shot through the roof?


--------------------
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But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.


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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: trendal]
    #5925532 - 08/02/06 02:05 PM (17 years, 5 months ago)

It probably takes time to gear up oil production, and by that time foreign oil prices had fallen again.

I'm sure we're drilling like crazy now.


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InvisibleCowgold
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: trendal]
    #5925541 - 08/02/06 02:06 PM (17 years, 5 months ago)

"If, as you say, oil production peaked in 1971 and began to decline simply because foreign oil was cheaper at the time....then why didn't US oil production go back up two years later when the price of foreign oil shot through the roof? "



Producing a well takes time... the crisis of 73 was short lived. The ones who profited at the time were the ones with reserves.

Drilling a well is a huge gamble with nearly all the costs up front. Considering the 73 crisis was caused because issues with opec the situation was focused at correcting that relationship not producing domestic oil for an uncertain future.

(i've gotta go right now, but I'll check in on this thread later tonight)


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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: Microcosmatrix]
    #5925616 - 08/02/06 02:27 PM (17 years, 5 months ago)

Well that's the thing...after the 73 crisis, prices didn't fall back to their previous levels - meaning foreign oil would still be much more expensive than it had been in 1971 when US production reached its peak.

Look here:
http://www.wtrg.com/oil_graphs/oilprice1947.gif

And note how, after the massive price spike in 1971, the price doesn't fall to anywhere near what it was until almost 15 years later.

Now you can't tell me it takes 15 years to get oil production ramped back up again...


--------------------
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But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.


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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: Cowgold]
    #5925647 - 08/02/06 02:34 PM (17 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

Cowgold said:
Producing a well takes time... the crisis of 73 was short lived. The ones who profited at the time were the ones with reserves.




The crisis itself may have been short-lived, but the price increase due to the crisis (and the next one, in 1979) would last for another 15 years.

Does it take 15 years to produce a well?


--------------------
Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free.
But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.


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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: trendal]
    #5925700 - 08/02/06 02:49 PM (17 years, 5 months ago)

There is also quite a bit of evidence that over-reporting of oil reserves has occurred - that way a country can have a higher production quota (if a member of OPEC). Saudi Arabia claims it has 260boe but there is some data showing that it's likely significantly lower than that (some say 180boe). Earlier this year Royal Dutch/Shell even admitted to purposely overstating their reserves by 22%.


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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: trendal]
    #5926942 - 08/02/06 09:33 PM (17 years, 5 months ago)

I know the oil industry from an industry perspective. It's been very difficult to make a profitable well because we've been competeing against cheap foreign oil. Bottom lines don't lie. Explain to me why current domestic production is high? (hint: refer to my previous posts)


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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: Cowgold]
    #5927907 - 08/03/06 06:39 AM (17 years, 5 months ago)

Explain to me why current domestic production is high?

Define "high"....

From the US DOE website:

US oil production in kbpd (1000 barrels per day)
2000 - 5,822
2001 - 5,801
2002 - 5,746
2003 - 5,681
2004 - 5,419
2005 - 5,121

So where's the big increase?

Production at the end of 1971 was 9,637 kbpd...


--------------------
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But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.


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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: trendal]
    #5927925 - 08/03/06 07:06 AM (17 years, 5 months ago)

in your wallet


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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: goobler]
    #5928010 - 08/03/06 08:18 AM (17 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

goobler said:
in your wallet




:yesnod:

And yours, too, I gather :wink:


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But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.


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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: trendal]
    #5928012 - 08/03/06 08:20 AM (17 years, 5 months ago)

oh yes, one can really make a killing


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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: trendal]
    #5928028 - 08/03/06 08:36 AM (17 years, 5 months ago)

I've been using the wrong word. And Production will rise in the coming years.


*exploration.

The economics of oil I've posted in this thread are correct, btw. And, I'm pretty surprised by the numbers you're showing.


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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: Cowgold]
    #5928080 - 08/03/06 09:24 AM (17 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

Cowgold said:
And, I'm pretty surprised by the numbers you're showing.




I'm not surprised...one of the main predictions of Peak Oil is that, after the peak for any given field or group of fields, any new production will only serve to offset the declining production of existing fields. New production will continue to come online over the years, but it won't increase the total US production numbers much, if at all.



Production of oil in the continental US will never again reach the peak of the 1970's.

Economics doesn't trump geology and physics :wink:


--------------------
Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free.
But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.


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InvisibleKerbouchardS
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: goobler]
    #5928089 - 08/03/06 09:29 AM (17 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

goobler said:
oh yes, one can really make a killing





that's bullshit when you consider the down to earth people like me would pay $1000 to convert to everclear.... ethanol, and run a 10 acre farm on nothin but moonshine.


--------------------
"War Doesn't Decide Who's Right... It Decides Who's Left."


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Invisiblegoobler
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: Kerbouchard]
    #5928098 - 08/03/06 09:34 AM (17 years, 5 months ago)

dont talk outta your ass
your lips will chap


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InvisibleCowgold
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: trendal]
    #5928213 - 08/03/06 10:29 AM (17 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

trendal said:


Economics doesn't trump geology and physics :wink:




Nobody said it did.


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InvisibleCorporal Kielbasa

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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: goobler]
    #5928217 - 08/03/06 10:31 AM (17 years, 5 months ago)

I dont see anything wrong with making a quick 10 grand here or there...........


Whats the barrel at today? 70 and change?

I wonder if its to late to buy in?

What are some companies out there to research into.


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InvisibleCowgold
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: Corporal Kielbasa]
    #5928246 - 08/03/06 10:46 AM (17 years, 5 months ago)

Check out a few oil services companies. And pretty much anything to do with the barnett shale.


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Invisiblegoobler
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: Corporal Kielbasa]
    #5928257 - 08/03/06 10:55 AM (17 years, 5 months ago)

and remember

if you want to trade commodities, just consider the $$ gone...cause its not guaranteed


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InvisibleCorporal Kielbasa

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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: goobler]
    #5928279 - 08/03/06 11:04 AM (17 years, 5 months ago)

So its gambling here ay...... I mean that would suck if i took the only hope i had and it all just diapeared on me. That would really suck, and bring me back to square one.....



But say i bought 10000 dollars wurth of oil. at 75 a barrel. Thats 133 barrels of oil. What do i do sit on them in my back yard? Then hope to sell them for 100 dollars a peace?


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Invisiblegoobler
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: Corporal Kielbasa]
    #5928292 - 08/03/06 11:09 AM (17 years, 5 months ago)

you'd want to leverage the option to buy not actually take delivery


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InvisibleCorporal Kielbasa

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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: goobler]
    #5928303 - 08/03/06 11:13 AM (17 years, 5 months ago)

When i cruise threw the cities along the coast. All i see is huge oil storage tanks chilling along the highway. Vats the size of 4 store houses.


Edited by Corporal Kielbasa (08/03/06 11:16 AM)


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InvisibleKerbouchardS
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: goobler]
    #5928347 - 08/03/06 11:32 AM (17 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

goobler said:
you'd want to leverage the option to buy not actually take delivery




that only cost 10% for me
cause I don't fuck friends, I make gas money baby


--------------------
"War Doesn't Decide Who's Right... It Decides Who's Left."


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InvisibleTheDude
is waiting forthe peak

Registered: 04/15/03
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: Cowgold]
    #5929843 - 08/03/06 09:35 PM (17 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

Cowgold said:
You seem to be the authority on oil. 

:rolleyes:

What I said was...

"Oil production peaked in the 70's because we started getting cheaper foreign oil."

Which is correct.  After we started getting cheaper foreign oil, it was no longer profitable for domestic drilling companies to drill here. (oil bust of the 80s is a prime example)  Domestic production costs were at an all time high and the cost per barrel began to drop because we were getting foreign oil for much lower costs. 

I'm not argueing with you about the amount of oil available, only that production dropped for other reasons.  This happened not because it wasn't there to be drilled, but because demand was at an all time high and we began getting it cheaper elsewhere.




pffff, you have no idea what you're talking about.


--------------------
"this lebowski he called himself 'the dude'. now, 'dude', that's a name no one would self-apply where i come from but there was a lot about the dude that didn't make sense to me...."--the Stranger


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InvisibleCorporal Kielbasa

Registered: 05/29/04
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: TheDude]
    #5931508 - 08/04/06 01:44 PM (17 years, 5 months ago)

:ooo:


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