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InvisibletrendalM
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CIBC World Markets reports Peak Oil occurred in 2004
    #5303601 - 02/15/06 03:39 PM (17 years, 11 months ago)

The Time of Sands
Jeff Rubin and Peter Buchanan

Despite a doubling in crude prices over the last two years, non-OPEC supply failed to grow in 2005, resulting in a modest million barrel net increase in daily global production. Energy markets should brace themselves for another year of tight supply, as the rebound in production growth once again falls short of expectations.

Over 60% of the 3.6 million barrels of new oil production that will come on stream in 2006 will not support demand growth but simply offset the loss from depletion of existing fields such as the North Sea or the giant Burgan field in Kuwait. Net of depletion, conventional oil supply will continue to decline this year, just as it did last year. 2004, in hindsight, will prove to be a Hubbert curve peak, at least insofar as low-cost conventional crude is concerned. In any event, all of the increase in net global crude supply this year, as well as for the rest of the decade, will come from non-conventional sources like deep-water and oil sands.

...

As oil prices continue to rise to over $70 per barrel this year and to as much as $100 per barrel by the end of 2007, more and more of the world?s oil firms will seek a foothold in these huge, but costly reserves. If the 2-year decline in conventional production holds, this once marginal energy source may not only become one of the world?s most valuable, but one of the few remaining still open to investors.

(more at link below)

http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/occ_rep56.pdf


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InvisiblePenguarky Tunguin
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Re: CIBC World Markets reports Peak Oil occurred in 2004 [Re: trendal]
    #5303610 - 02/15/06 03:41 PM (17 years, 11 months ago)

Good thing Bush is all about alternative energy sources now! :thumbup: :smirk:


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InvisibletrendalM
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Re: CIBC World Markets reports Peak Oil occurred in 2004 [Re: trendal]
    #5303613 - 02/15/06 03:42 PM (17 years, 11 months ago)

My best guess (and that's really all it is - an educated guess) was 2005 for the peak in conventional oil, so it's kind of interesting to see a respected financial institution claiming 2004 as the peak.

This kind of news is also starting to really trickle down into the mainstream media. Last night on The Daily Show they had an author on who wrote a book about Peak Oil. Haven't watched the show yet, but I will as soon as it's downloaded :smirk:


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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free.
But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.


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Invisibleblink
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Re: CIBC World Markets reports Peak Oil occurred in 2004 [Re: trendal]
    #5303784 - 02/15/06 04:44 PM (17 years, 11 months ago)

gas went down to 78c/L

it was at 82 a few days ago....


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InvisibletrendalM
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Re: CIBC World Markets reports Peak Oil occurred in 2004 [Re: blink]
    #5303804 - 02/15/06 04:52 PM (17 years, 11 months ago)

Yeah the price of oil has dropped over $10/barrel in the last week or two.


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But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.


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