|
trendal
J♠


Registered: 04/17/01
Posts: 20,815
Loc: Ontario, Canada
|
It's called PEAK OIL, goobler
#5677635 - 05/26/06 04:32 PM (17 years, 8 months ago) |
|
|
http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/4529898#Post4529898
Are we still on for the bet?
There's just a little over 2 months left before the August 1st deadline, and the price of oil is still riding over $70 a barrel! I think I'm going to be $80 richer come august 
Oh, and blame the price on whatever you wish - I still think it's due to Peak Oil.
--------------------
Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free. But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.
|
blink
eye of horus



Registered: 03/31/02
Posts: 11,349
Loc: Geographic Location (Stat...
|
Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: trendal]
#5677660 - 05/26/06 04:42 PM (17 years, 8 months ago) |
|
|
are you going to spend that $80 bucks on gas?
--------------------
|
trendal
J♠


Registered: 04/17/01
Posts: 20,815
Loc: Ontario, Canada
|
Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: blink]
#5677667 - 05/26/06 04:44 PM (17 years, 8 months ago) |
|
|
Yeah, hopefully I'll have my bike by then
--------------------
Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free. But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.
|
psyka
Praetorian


Registered: 06/09/03
Posts: 1,652
|
Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: trendal]
#5677689 - 05/26/06 04:52 PM (17 years, 8 months ago) |
|
|
I told people around my area about it, as well. Here's what I said: "The supply for oil is going to become far overshadowed by demand, due to developing countries like China and India." They looked at me like I was crazy. I even showed them newspaper headlines that hint at peak oil! But noooo. Its ok, atleast I warned them.
BTW, this is [going to] trigger[ing] a massive war. How are you preparing, trendal?
I got me a few blast matches, a hennesy hammock, a composite bow, and now I'm looking for good quality hatchets :P I plan to head for the hills.
-------------------- As the life of a candle, my wick will burn out. But, the fire of my mind shall beam into infinite.

|
blink
eye of horus



Registered: 03/31/02
Posts: 11,349
Loc: Geographic Location (Stat...
|
Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler *DELETED* [Re: trendal]
#5677698 - 05/26/06 04:55 PM (17 years, 8 months ago) |
|
|
Post deleted by blinkidiotReason for deletion: Im sorry
--------------------
|
trendal
J♠


Registered: 04/17/01
Posts: 20,815
Loc: Ontario, Canada
|
Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: psyka]
#5677702 - 05/26/06 04:57 PM (17 years, 8 months ago) |
|
|
Head for the hills is my first gut reaction...then I remember there are a few hundred million other people on this continent that will probably have a similar idea 
How am I preparing? Mentally and physically - stay in shape and keep the mind sharp to deal with whatever comes. I don't think anyone can predict exactly how the human race will respond to an event like Peak Oil...so I try to avoid making such predictions (even in my own head - there they just lead to wild paranoia).
I think the best way to deal with this is to try and ride the wave. If you know what the cause of all this shit is (peak oil) then you will be better prepared to deal with the results as they happen. Stay mobile, stay fit, and stay alert.
--------------------
Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free. But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.
|
trendal
J♠


Registered: 04/17/01
Posts: 20,815
Loc: Ontario, Canada
|
Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: blink]
#5677704 - 05/26/06 04:57 PM (17 years, 8 months ago) |
|
|
Yeah the motorcycle.
Any luck finding one for yourself, yet?
--------------------
Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free. But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.
|
blink
eye of horus



Registered: 03/31/02
Posts: 11,349
Loc: Geographic Location (Stat...
|
Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler *DELETED* [Re: trendal]
#5677719 - 05/26/06 05:02 PM (17 years, 8 months ago) |
|
|
Post deleted by blinkidiotReason for deletion: Im sorry
--------------------
|
psyka
Praetorian


Registered: 06/09/03
Posts: 1,652
|
Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: blink]
#5677732 - 05/26/06 05:05 PM (17 years, 8 months ago) |
|
|
http://cgi.ebay.ca/SEGWAY-P133-BRAND-NEW_W0QQitemZ7243953926QQcategoryZ47351QQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem
haha, get a Segway! If you get one, I'll get one. We could chase people down, with chains in our hands, on our Segways! It would be like an old persons version of Mad Max!
-------------------- As the life of a candle, my wick will burn out. But, the fire of my mind shall beam into infinite.

|
psyka
Praetorian


Registered: 06/09/03
Posts: 1,652
|
Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: psyka]
#5677738 - 05/26/06 05:07 PM (17 years, 8 months ago) |
|
|
-------------------- As the life of a candle, my wick will burn out. But, the fire of my mind shall beam into infinite.

|
buckwheat
Cynically Insane

Registered: 12/09/02
Posts: 11,179
Loc: Not Enough Characters to ...
|
Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: psyka]
#5677799 - 05/26/06 05:28 PM (17 years, 8 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
psyka said:
BTW, this is [going to] trigger[ing] a massive war. How are you preparing, trendal?
I got me a few blast matches, a hennesy hammock, a composite bow, and now I'm looking for good quality hatchets :P I plan to head for the hills.
Im currently building up a survival suplies.So far i got some guns,water purifier,books,there is more to buy but the guns are more exiting im not in that big a hurry . A .22lr rifle is like the swiss army knife or leatherman of guns i think everyone shoud have one. you could easily carry 5,000 rounds with you.
|
Prisoner#1
Even Dumber ThanAdvertized!


Registered: 01/22/03
Posts: 193,665
Loc: Pvt. Pubfag NutSuck
|
Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: trendal]
#5677912 - 05/26/06 06:08 PM (17 years, 8 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
trendal said: Oh, and blame the price on whatever you wish - I still think it's due to Peak Oil.
DeBeers stockpiles diamonds, they set the market price, they claim that they are a rare and prescious gemstone, you can mine for diamonds in canada, huge deposits are located in Sascatchewan... yeah, take a peak at the oil stockpiles and the untapped reserves. OPEC pulled the same shit in the 70's now GW is in on the act
|
trendal
J♠


Registered: 04/17/01
Posts: 20,815
Loc: Ontario, Canada
|
Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: Prisoner#1]
#5677957 - 05/26/06 06:25 PM (17 years, 8 months ago) |
|
|
It's not a coincidence that US oil production peaked in 1971. The crisis was real then and it is now. The only difference is that in 71 the US could turn to other countries, but we don't have any other planets to turn to now. A new source of energy will need to be found, or we will be forced to reduce our usage.
--------------------
Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free. But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.
|
Prisoner#1
Even Dumber ThanAdvertized!


Registered: 01/22/03
Posts: 193,665
Loc: Pvt. Pubfag NutSuck
|
Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: trendal]
#5677983 - 05/26/06 06:38 PM (17 years, 8 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
trendal said: It's not a coincidence that US oil production peaked in 1971. The crisis was real then and it is now.
key word=production, this means that they stopped pumping from many of the wells they were working, they obviously didnt cease drilling new ones or discovering more oil, USGS maps support this, there are thousands of capped wells across this country and locations for thousands more. remember in economics when they mentioned supply and demand, well, restrict the supply and the price goes up.
Quote:
The only difference is that in 71 the US could turn to other countries, but we don't have any other planets to turn to now. A new source of energy will need to be found, or we will be forced to reduce our usage.
the US cold have tapped into many more wells, if we hit 'peak production' and were nearing the end end of our oil production then why arent we completely dependant on foriegn oil 35 years later?
|
trendal
J♠


Registered: 04/17/01
Posts: 20,815
Loc: Ontario, Canada
|
Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: Prisoner#1]
#5678009 - 05/26/06 06:50 PM (17 years, 8 months ago) |
|
|
the US cold have tapped into many more wells, if we hit 'peak production' and were nearing the end end of our oil production then why arent we completely dependant on foriegn oil 35 years later?
You should wiki "peak oil" and educate yourself on the subject.
The "peak" occurs more or less at the halfway point - not anywhere near the absolute end. In 1971 the US had pumped only about half of the oil it had in the ground, not most of it. It will take many more years for the rest to be pumped out (and it will never all be removed due to technical limitations).
--------------------
Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free. But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.
|
trendal
J♠


Registered: 04/17/01
Posts: 20,815
Loc: Ontario, Canada
|
Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: Prisoner#1]
#5678016 - 05/26/06 06:53 PM (17 years, 8 months ago) |
|
|
As far as how good this all is for the oil co's...price spikes may be good for them by bringing in hugeprofit, but prolonged rises in price are detrimental - they result in demand destruction and conservation measures, both of which hurt future profits.
--------------------
Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free. But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.
|
TheDude
is waiting forthe peak

Registered: 04/15/03
Posts: 2,876
|
Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: Prisoner#1]
#5678083 - 05/26/06 07:20 PM (17 years, 8 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
Prisoner#1 said:
key word=production, this means that they stopped pumping from many of the wells they were working, they obviously didnt cease drilling new ones or discovering more oil, USGS maps support this, there are thousands of capped wells across this country and locations for thousands more. remember in economics when they mentioned supply and demand, well, restrict the supply and the price goes up.
(from my recent post in PAL before the thread got locked for being off topic ) The discovery of new domestic oil reserves peaked in the 1930's and has been in steady decline since. Domestic oil production peaked in the 1970's and likewise has been in a steady decline. Worldwide discoveries peaked in the 1960's. These are facts. We simply aren't discovering new oil to keep up with demand and it has been this way for a while. This has nothing to do with flaws in our discovery methods, it stems from the fact there are no more supergiant oil reserves left to be found. No amount of new discovery projects or methods will change the fact that there is a finite amount of oil in the ground and nearly all of it has already been recovered.
"Of greater immediate consequence is that the major petroleum exporting nations have little additional reserve production capacity.16 Figure 4 shows the difference in the year of maximum discovery and annual discovery compared with production. The world's peak year of discovery was 1964 and 1980 the final year discovery paced consumption. The subsequent discovery falloff was, at least in part, from the resulting oil surplus. The trendline marked with dark diamonds shows the number of new drilling rigs each year. The trendline demonstrates that the spirited attempts to locate new oil fields peaked in 1980 and subsequently succumbed to geologic realties. The chart also illustrates that despite periods with price spikes over decades, little or no lessening of the consumption gap is evident. In the year 2002 total world discoveries was only approximately 15% of consumption, 3 - 6 Gbl.17 The failure to close the gap in recent years using sophisticated discovery and drilling technologies is clear as well." *link
If domestic oil depletion is any indicator for a global production peak, then it should occur 40 years after the peak in discoveries (Hubbert predicted between 1990-2000). However, political events affect the supply and demand for fossil fuels and one of the reasons global oil production did not peak in the 90's like Hubbert predicted is due to the reduced supply made available during the oil embargo in the 1970's. Iraq's current export rates are no where near the levels they were before the war so they may not peak until 2015.
Quote:
the US cold have tapped into many more wells, if we hit 'peak production' and were nearing the end end of our oil production then why arent we completely dependant on foriegn oil 35 years later?
Production doesn't drop off to 0 after peak oil has passed. A graph of oil reserve production follows a bell curve shape and indicates the supply of oil gradually reduces once the peak is passed. I've read estimates of 2%-8% annual decline in global production after the peak occurs. Since domestic production peaked in the 70's it has been in steady decline since. New discoveries peaked in the 30's so there is no chance they'll pick up any time soon). So over the years we have been forced by geological limitations to be more and more reliant on foreign sources of energy. After world production peaks, there won't be any other source to turn to for energy, and that's when the shit hits the fan. The growth required by modern industrial societies will no longer be sustainable and its anyone's guess as to what will happen then...
The main point is peak oil is rapidly approaching and it is foolish to waste time debating over the exact year/month/day it occurs. We will only truly know the peak after it has already passed, which will be far to late to react accordingly. Peak oil is on its way and there is little we can do to mitigate its effects.
-------------------- "this lebowski he called himself 'the dude'. now, 'dude', that's a name no one would self-apply where i come from but there was a lot about the dude that didn't make sense to me...."--the Stranger
Edited by TheDude (05/26/06 07:26 PM)
|
Prisoner#1
Even Dumber ThanAdvertized!


Registered: 01/22/03
Posts: 193,665
Loc: Pvt. Pubfag NutSuck
|
Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: trendal]
#5678086 - 05/26/06 07:21 PM (17 years, 8 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
trendal said: The "peak" occurs more or less at the halfway point - not anywhere near the absolute end.
of course, which means we are on a serious decline by these 'facts', since demand has more increased more than 10 times that in '71 we should have gone through our stockpiles by 2000. but since that time thousands more wells have been drilled and capped as 'reserves', some recent discussion regarding ANWR and pumping the hundred+ wells in that area, prudhoe bay has 35 or more ready for pumping all within a few miles of each other. these deposits are measured in billions of barrels of oil. why do you think they have waited since 1995 to consider tapping these wells?
Quote:
In 1971 the US had pumped only about half of the oil it had in the ground, not most of it. It will take many more years for the rest to be pumped out (and it will never all be removed due to technical limitations).
again, that would mean our supplies were depleated by this time due to the drastic increase in demand, as for recovery, when wells are first drilled, theres lots of pressure, most from the natural gas pockets found with most oil, this causes the geiser effect you often see in the movies, it's also responsible for the majority of well fires. as the well is depleated of that pressure, water is pumped in to build it again and extract the remaining oil
do you hear about the oil wells in alabama, georgia, tennessee, or even Pennsylvania... of course not, you hear about texas, alaska, the coastal wells and arab nations
Oil and Gas in Pennsylvania
we arent pulling from a few hundred wells
|
RandalFlagg
Stranger
Registered: 06/15/02
Posts: 15,608
|
Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: Prisoner#1]
#5678101 - 05/26/06 07:25 PM (17 years, 8 months ago) |
|
|
I grew up about 20 minutes away from the town that had the first successful oil well in the world.
|
Prisoner#1
Even Dumber ThanAdvertized!


Registered: 01/22/03
Posts: 193,665
Loc: Pvt. Pubfag NutSuck
|
Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler [Re: TheDude]
#5678126 - 05/26/06 07:34 PM (17 years, 8 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
TheDude said:
Quote:
the US cold have tapped into many more wells, if we hit 'peak production' and were nearing the end end of our oil production then why arent we completely dependant on foriegn oil 35 years later?
Production doesn't drop off to 0 after peak oil has passed.
my statement was similar to Huberts in our time to finality, maybe I should have been more clear, the 'crisis' of the 70's would have had us dipping more heavily into our reserves, ours should have been depleted earlier.
it's all still a scam, just as it was in the 70's
|
|