psyka said:

BTW, this is [going to] trigger[ing] a massive war. How are you preparing, trendal?

I got me a few blast matches, a hennesy hammock, a composite bow, and now I'm looking for good quality hatchets :P I plan to head for the hills.

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Im currently building up a survival suplies.So far i got some guns,water purifier,books,there is more to buy but the guns are more exiting im not in that big a hurry . A .22lr rifle is like the swiss army knife or leatherman of guns i think everyone shoud have one. you could easily carry 5,000 rounds with you.

trendal said:

Oh, and blame the price on whatever you wish - I still think it's due to Peak Oil.

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trendal said:

It's not a coincidence that US oil production peaked in 1971. The crisis was real then and it is now.

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The only difference is that in 71 the US could turn to other countries, but we don't have any other planets to turn to now. A new source of energy will need to be found, or we will be forced to reduce our usage.

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Prisoner#1 said:

key word=production, this means that they stopped pumping from many of the wells
they were working, they obviously didnt cease drilling new ones or discovering
more oil,  USGS maps support this, there are thousands of capped wells across
this country and locations for thousands more. remember in economics when they
mentioned supply and demand, well, restrict the supply and the price goes up.

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(from my recent post in PAL before the thread got locked for being off topic)
The discovery of new domestic oil reserves peaked in the 1930's and has been in steady decline since. Domestic oil production peaked in the 1970's and likewise has been in a steady decline. Worldwide discoveries peaked in the 1960's. These are facts. We simply aren't discovering new oil to keep up with demand and it has been this way for a while. This has nothing to do with flaws in our discovery methods, it stems from the fact there are no more supergiant oil reserves left to be found. No amount of new discovery projects or methods will change the fact that there is a finite amount of oil in the ground and nearly all of it has already been recovered.

"Of greater immediate consequence is that the major petroleum exporting nations have little additional reserve production capacity.16 Figure 4 shows the difference in the year of maximum discovery and annual discovery compared with production. The world's peak year of discovery was 1964 and 1980 the final year discovery paced consumption. The subsequent discovery falloff was, at least in part, from the resulting oil surplus. The trendline marked with dark diamonds shows the number of new drilling rigs each year. The trendline demonstrates that the spirited attempts to locate new oil fields peaked in 1980 and subsequently succumbed to geologic realties. The chart also illustrates that despite periods with price spikes over decades, little or no lessening of the consumption gap is evident. In the year 2002 total world discoveries was only approximately 15% of consumption, 3 - 6 Gbl.17 The failure to close the gap in recent years using sophisticated discovery and drilling technologies is clear as well."  *link

If domestic oil depletion is any indicator for a global production peak, then it should occur 40 years after the peak in discoveries (Hubbert predicted between 1990-2000). However, political events affect the supply and demand for fossil fuels and one of the reasons global oil production did not peak in the 90's like Hubbert predicted is due to the reduced supply made available during the oil embargo in the 1970's.  Iraq's current export rates are no where near the levels they were before the war so they may not peak until 2015.

Quote:

the US cold have tapped into many more wells, if we hit 'peak production' and were nearing the end end of our oil production then why arent we completely
dependant on foriegn oil 35 years later?

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trendal said:

The "peak" occurs more or less at the halfway point - not anywhere near the absolute end.

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Quote:

In 1971 the US had pumped only about half of the oil it had in the ground, not most of it. It will take many more years for the rest to be pumped out (and it will never all be removed due to technical limitations).

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again, that would mean our supplies were depleated by this time due to the
drastic increase in demand, as for recovery, when wells are first drilled,
theres lots of pressure, most from the natural gas pockets found with most
oil, this causes the geiser effect you often see in the movies, it's also
responsible for the majority of well fires. as the well is depleated of that
pressure, water is pumped in to build it again and extract the remaining oil

do you hear about the oil wells in alabama, georgia, tennessee, or even
Pennsylvania... of course not, you hear about texas, alaska, the coastal wells
and arab nations

Oil and Gas in Pennsylvania


we arent pulling from a few hundred wells

TheDude said:

Quote:

the US cold have tapped into many more wells, if we hit 'peak production' and were nearing the end end of our oil production then why arent we completely
dependant on foriegn oil 35 years later?

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Production doesn't drop off to 0 after peak oil has passed.

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