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evolprim
human


Registered: 05/07/06
Posts: 1,226
Last seen: 8 years, 2 months
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: trendal]
#5925463 - 08/02/06 01:38 PM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
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we need to stockpile on SHITLOADS of spores/ growing supplies and meet in the forest.
imagine it a SHROOMERY NATION.
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trendal
J♠


Registered: 04/17/01
Posts: 20,815
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: Cowgold]
#5925494 - 08/02/06 01:54 PM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
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You seem to be the authority on oil.
Easy there, cowboy...I never said that. I'm just a guy who happens to be interested in energy sources.
You, on the other hand, are clearly displaying your lack of knowledge about oil production history.
Which is correct. After we started getting cheaper foreign oil, it was no longer profitable for domestic drilling companies to drill here. (oil bust of the 80s is a prime example) Domestic production costs were at an all time high and the cost per barrel began to drop because we were getting foreign oil for much lower costs.
You seem to be forgetting something called the "1973 oil crisis".
The price of foreign oil may have been lower in 1971 when US production peaked...but two years later when OPEC turned off its taps foreign oil definitely wasn't cheaper than US oil. It was a lot more expensive, in fact.
If, as you say, oil production peaked in 1971 and began to decline simply because foreign oil was cheaper at the time....then why didn't US oil production go back up two years later when the price of foreign oil shot through the roof?
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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free. But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.
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Microcosmatrix
Spiral staircasetechnician


Registered: 10/20/05
Posts: 11,293
Loc: Ythan's house
Last seen: 17 years, 1 month
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: trendal]
#5925532 - 08/02/06 02:05 PM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
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It probably takes time to gear up oil production, and by that time foreign oil prices had fallen again.
I'm sure we're drilling like crazy now.
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Cowgold
Bullshit


Registered: 04/04/05
Posts: 12,486
Loc: .
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: trendal]
#5925541 - 08/02/06 02:06 PM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
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"If, as you say, oil production peaked in 1971 and began to decline simply because foreign oil was cheaper at the time....then why didn't US oil production go back up two years later when the price of foreign oil shot through the roof? "
Producing a well takes time... the crisis of 73 was short lived. The ones who profited at the time were the ones with reserves.
Drilling a well is a huge gamble with nearly all the costs up front. Considering the 73 crisis was caused because issues with opec the situation was focused at correcting that relationship not producing domestic oil for an uncertain future.
(i've gotta go right now, but I'll check in on this thread later tonight)
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trendal
J♠


Registered: 04/17/01
Posts: 20,815
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: Microcosmatrix]
#5925616 - 08/02/06 02:27 PM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
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Well that's the thing...after the 73 crisis, prices didn't fall back to their previous levels - meaning foreign oil would still be much more expensive than it had been in 1971 when US production reached its peak.
Look here: http://www.wtrg.com/oil_graphs/oilprice1947.gif
And note how, after the massive price spike in 1971, the price doesn't fall to anywhere near what it was until almost 15 years later.
Now you can't tell me it takes 15 years to get oil production ramped back up again...
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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free. But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.
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trendal
J♠


Registered: 04/17/01
Posts: 20,815
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: Cowgold]
#5925647 - 08/02/06 02:34 PM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
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Quote:
Cowgold said: Producing a well takes time... the crisis of 73 was short lived. The ones who profited at the time were the ones with reserves.
The crisis itself may have been short-lived, but the price increase due to the crisis (and the next one, in 1979) would last for another 15 years.
Does it take 15 years to produce a well?
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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free. But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.
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nickpdx
Registered: 11/15/04
Posts: 154
Last seen: 12 years, 1 month
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: trendal]
#5925700 - 08/02/06 02:49 PM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
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There is also quite a bit of evidence that over-reporting of oil reserves has occurred - that way a country can have a higher production quota (if a member of OPEC). Saudi Arabia claims it has 260boe but there is some data showing that it's likely significantly lower than that (some say 180boe). Earlier this year Royal Dutch/Shell even admitted to purposely overstating their reserves by 22%.
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Cowgold
Bullshit


Registered: 04/04/05
Posts: 12,486
Loc: .
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: trendal]
#5926942 - 08/02/06 09:33 PM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
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I know the oil industry from an industry perspective. It's been very difficult to make a profitable well because we've been competeing against cheap foreign oil. Bottom lines don't lie. Explain to me why current domestic production is high? (hint: refer to my previous posts)
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trendal
J♠


Registered: 04/17/01
Posts: 20,815
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: Cowgold]
#5927907 - 08/03/06 06:39 AM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
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Explain to me why current domestic production is high?
Define "high"....
From the US DOE website:
US oil production in kbpd (1000 barrels per day) 2000 - 5,822 2001 - 5,801 2002 - 5,746 2003 - 5,681 2004 - 5,419 2005 - 5,121
So where's the big increase?
Production at the end of 1971 was 9,637 kbpd...
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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free. But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.
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goobler
Reanimated



Registered: 02/24/03
Posts: 48,909
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: trendal]
#5927925 - 08/03/06 07:06 AM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
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in your wallet
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trendal
J♠


Registered: 04/17/01
Posts: 20,815
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: goobler]
#5928010 - 08/03/06 08:18 AM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
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Quote:
goobler said: in your wallet

And yours, too, I gather
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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free. But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.
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goobler
Reanimated



Registered: 02/24/03
Posts: 48,909
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: trendal]
#5928012 - 08/03/06 08:20 AM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
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oh yes, one can really make a killing
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Cowgold
Bullshit


Registered: 04/04/05
Posts: 12,486
Loc: .
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: trendal]
#5928028 - 08/03/06 08:36 AM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
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I've been using the wrong word. And Production will rise in the coming years.
*exploration.
The economics of oil I've posted in this thread are correct, btw. And, I'm pretty surprised by the numbers you're showing.
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trendal
J♠


Registered: 04/17/01
Posts: 20,815
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: Cowgold]
#5928080 - 08/03/06 09:24 AM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
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Quote:
Cowgold said: And, I'm pretty surprised by the numbers you're showing.
I'm not surprised...one of the main predictions of Peak Oil is that, after the peak for any given field or group of fields, any new production will only serve to offset the declining production of existing fields. New production will continue to come online over the years, but it won't increase the total US production numbers much, if at all.

Production of oil in the continental US will never again reach the peak of the 1970's.
Economics doesn't trump geology and physics
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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free. But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.
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Kerbouchard
Stranger


Registered: 03/18/06
Posts: 9,823
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: goobler]
#5928089 - 08/03/06 09:29 AM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
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Quote:
goobler said: oh yes, one can really make a killing
that's bullshit when you consider the down to earth people like me would pay $1000 to convert to everclear.... ethanol, and run a 10 acre farm on nothin but moonshine.
-------------------- "War Doesn't Decide Who's Right... It Decides Who's Left."
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goobler
Reanimated



Registered: 02/24/03
Posts: 48,909
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: Kerbouchard]
#5928098 - 08/03/06 09:34 AM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
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dont talk outta your ass your lips will chap
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Cowgold
Bullshit


Registered: 04/04/05
Posts: 12,486
Loc: .
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: trendal]
#5928213 - 08/03/06 10:29 AM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
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Quote:
trendal said:
Economics doesn't trump geology and physics
Nobody said it did.
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Corporal Kielbasa

Registered: 05/29/04
Posts: 17,235
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Re: It's called PEAK OIL, goobler, and I win [Re: goobler]
#5928217 - 08/03/06 10:31 AM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
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I dont see anything wrong with making a quick 10 grand here or there...........
Whats the barrel at today? 70 and change?
I wonder if its to late to buy in?
What are some companies out there to research into.
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Cowgold
Bullshit


Registered: 04/04/05
Posts: 12,486
Loc: .
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Check out a few oil services companies. And pretty much anything to do with the barnett shale.
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goobler
Reanimated



Registered: 02/24/03
Posts: 48,909
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and remember
if you want to trade commodities, just consider the $$ gone...cause its not guaranteed
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