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Can the future be predicted precisely given enough knowledge?
    #22774367 -

https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/asteroids/news/asteroid20130110.html#.VpafjVQrKW8

The more we understand, the more we are able to predict. I think the future of our solar system can be be predicted exactly to a million years out given enough understanding. It is just physics of bodies in motion and rate of the sun's burn, etc.

Weather forecasts are getting better, etc. What if if forecasters eventually got good enough to predict what day exactly it was going to snow-- next year. Or that a cat 3 hurricane will hit Morehead City NC on Aug 22 in 3 years. THEORETICALLY it is possible--if you can factor in the immense variables.

I think it even affects 'free will'. What if given your DNA, body chemistry, parents, city, era, life events, etc,---- an alien, or entity, or super-computer could predict everything you will do?

It is only things we don't know and understand fully that flaw our predictions.


--------------------
Shroomery mycologist definitely know their shit. :wink:


Knowledge talks. Wisdom listens.

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Re: Can the future be predicted precisely given enough knowledge? [Re: klhouse]
    #22774691 -

Not so much the physical future but the emotional experiences of an individual can be predicted precisely when given knowledge and self awareness on human nervous system responses to specified stimuli.

If you have enough data, technically the physical future can be predicted too through the philosophy of determinism and physics.

Quote:
"Ever since its publication, Conway's Game of Life has attracted much interest, because of the surprising ways in which the patterns can evolve.

Life provides an example of emergence and self-organization. Scholars in various fields, such as computer science, physics, biology, biochemistry, economics, mathematics, philosophy, and generative sciences have made use of the way that complex patterns can emerge from the implementation of the game's simple rules.
The game can also serve as a didactic analogy, used to convey the somewhat counter-intuitive notion that "design" and "organization" can spontaneously emerge in the absence of a designer.
For example, philosopher and cognitive scientist Daniel Dennett has used the analogue of Conway's Life "universe" extensively to illustrate the possible evolution of complex philosophical constructs, such as consciousness and free will, from the relatively simple set of deterministic physical laws governing our own universe."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Determinism#Modern_scientific_perspective



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I am whatever Darwin needs me to be.


Edited by sudly (01/13/16 02:22 PM)

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Re: Can the future be predicted precisely given enough knowledge? [Re: sudly]
    #22774945 -

As Thomas Kuhn wrote, a concept of history can be considered decisive to philosophy of science. I don't find it convincing to speculate on the face value authority of scientific knowledge. I would instead attempt to draw a rough background, to what science is which is to a large extent an orthodox construct (what we call an institution or "community") of modern humans, and judge progress in simpler terms of science.

I think it would not be far fetched to say that modern science began around the time of Galileo, whose story I take it, is well enough known, and emblematic for establishing some grounds for the basis of an empirical (experiment based) methodology.

The myth and perpetuated dialogue about a need for continual liberation of "free thinking" from the belfries of dogmatic human institutions, is overbroad, and partial human attitude that tends to reveal itself. After all, isn't this human institution - isn't God - Dead? This kind of discussion is about a rival institution securing itself, in face of a dogmatic institution, yet in this it has become more about that, than naturalism. In any case, philosophers of science say that science may come up against its own structure today, rather than convenient oppositions.

It was Renes Descartes, who around the same time as Galileo, who really proposed the rationale for a "method of doubt", in technical terms, the epistemelogical background for science. We greet Descartes epistemology as basic to the world, constantly being broached in terms of a "subject and object". (Discourse on Method). Descartes' method of arriving at "certain foundations for knowledge" through a method of doubt is roughly the assumed way that we practically and in a human way conceive that our conjectures naturally, and in their only possibility seek objectivity. Objectivity is posed in opposition to subjectivity, or what we refer to as what does not reach an appropriate consensus. Objectivity is the implied basis of things as they can only be, both in reality and in conjecture. To put it one way, anything subjective that is "real" is actually objective. We follow these realist metaphysics and epistemology today, even as we apportion the whole domain of metaphysics (what is foundational to Descartes's theory - "I think therefore I am") to subjectivity.

But aside from realism, what else is hardly appreciated, is that "science" wasn't institutionalized, or actually conceived in the sense we today refer to it as "science" until the 19th century. Before that, what we call science, was referred to as natural philosophy.

To put it in specific terms of this change, natural philosophy is the study of physis in its capacity as nature. Today naturalism is posed in terms of oppositions, a technical and essentialistic notion of falsification (derived from a cultural attitude to empiricism) which suggests that what is, is mainly understood by what is not, and binds what is to this opposition. This is where our conjectures both in a technical sense, and in a larger culture are to be found in terms of.

The development of a simple point of reference to sciencia, - meaning literally and somewhat obliquely "knowledge" - as well as a human institution of "science", coincided when in the scope of our knowledge, the way we gathered knowledge (methodology) was taken for granted to simply reflect the natural world (cosmology) like a mirror. William Whewell coined the term science in 1833, to be precise.

In the 19th century it was generally thought that the standing of sciences as they are, from reductive physics to chemistry, to biology, to the human social sciences, were all found within the formality of constraints established, so that science itself was completely straight forward, and simple point of reference, to an idea of filling in the details and gathering data for the existing textbooks or departments in the university. At that particular time, when we were so simply gathering "knowledge" it was thought that philosophy, the ways philosophers reflect on the world, could be dispensed with.

Yet that was a relatively short period of time. Come to the twentieth century and you find that in spite of the techtonic shifting of human knowledge, a human insitution holds on to the philosophy of "objectivity", "empiricality", "science". This institution is the reality of science. As the ground of grounds - not merely a subject among other - but physis or nature itself completely changed, it has become obvious that the way we gather knoweledge no longer reflects knowledge. It is pragmatic. Science has actually been mostly undermined through history rather than ever established, and has continued further and further into this "trend".

The institutional sciences should look to a consistent empirical method, which is one, as Hume suggested, that does not make a priori perscriptions. This has to be considered a subtle point, sciences need also look to look to nature or physis itself.  The technical equipment used to observe, or the technicality of conjectures, is really what characterizes science to modern people. Science consists in an endorsement of technicality of discipline to the laity, which is necessary, but the institution has cleaved too much to this for its basis. Science, and their conjectures should be meeting philosophers of science, because that is where the human economy of securing grants and funding lies.

Philosophers will say what they will, and modernity will go on riding on the outdated sense of institutional authority, and the laurels of technological production. Naturalism is dead, and meaningless, and all we take it to mean is the technically projected idea of what is, rather than what isn't. The idea that a totalizing or holistic conception of nature has even been touched on for a long time, and won't be, until institutional authority is loosened up.

Short answer, is it may seem like methodology reflects cosmology/nature, but it only does, so far as it satisfies a pretty marginal human utility.

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Re: Can the future be predicted precisely given enough knowledge? [Re: Kurt]
    #22775156 -

As for free will, I believe it has existed for about as long as conscience has by following the concepts of existentialist philosophy.
Quote:
Existentialism is a philosophical movement which emphasizes on individual existence, freedom, and choice. There are several philosophical positions all related to existential philosophy but the main identifiable common proposition, is that existence precedes essence.



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I am whatever Darwin needs me to be.


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Re: Can the future be predicted precisely given enough knowledge? [Re: klhouse]
    #22775359 -

Firstly it is a purely theoretical question
not even scientific, I think, because it can't be negated in the real world

Secondly, I think, it's not just that the weather can't be predicted by the most powerful computers, beyond a short range and local range, but that complex systems are inherently unstable.

This why probability mathematics and statistical analysis are vital to modern science.

third, I would argue, that the notion of enough or complete knowledge is a myth. Information has no value without organization, context, and interpretation --- all of which generate further information---in other words information is infinite.

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Re: Can the future be predicted precisely given enough knowledge? [Re: laughingdog]
    #22776291 -

laughingdog said:
Firstly it is a purely theoretical question
not even scientific, I think, because it can't be negated in the real world

Secondly, I think, it's not just that the weather can't be predicted by the most powerful computers, beyond a short range and local range, but that complex systems are inherently unstable.

This why probability mathematics and statistical analysis are vital to modern science.

third, I would argue, that the notion of enough or complete knowledge is a myth. Information has no value without organization, context, and interpretation --- all of which generate further information---in other words information is infinite.


Hmmmm...Information is infinite... I can see that point of view. So, the more we learn, the more questions open up--- like, learning more about the universe opened up the mystery of dark matter, etc. And if and when we solve dark matter, that may open up deeper mysteries.


--------------------
Shroomery mycologist definitely know their shit. :wink:


Knowledge talks. Wisdom listens.

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Re: Can the future be predicted precisely given enough knowledge? [Re: klhouse] * 1
    #22776841 -

I predict that, in an alternate reality where Diploid is still with us, he would post a link to this explanation of Bell's theorem, as he did in this post.

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Re: Can the future be predicted precisely given enough knowledge? [Re: klhouse]
    #22777109 -

klhouse said:
https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/asteroids/news/asteroid20130110.html#.VpafjVQrKW8

The more we understand, the more we are able to predict. I think the future of our solar system can be be predicted exactly to a million years out given enough understanding. It is just physics of bodies in motion and rate of the sun's burn, etc.

Weather forecasts are getting better, etc. What if if forecasters eventually got good enough to predict what day exactly it was going to snow-- next year. Or that a cat 3 hurricane will hit Morehead City NC on Aug 22 in 3 years. THEORETICALLY it is possible--if you can factor in the immense variables.

I think it even affects 'free will'. What if given your DNA, body chemistry, parents, city, era, life events, etc,---- an alien, or entity, or super-computer could predict everything you will do?

It is only things we don't know and understand fully that flaw our predictions.


Did you know that one day NASA was in the middle of announcing its success at finding and tracking meteors, only to have https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chelyabinsk_meteor come in from the direction of the sun, effectively blinding us the way a fighter pilot might, and explode over a populated city?

They found out about it on twitter.


--------------------
zen by age ten times six hundred lifetimes
Light up the darkness.

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Re: Can the future be predicted precisely given enough knowledge? [Re: hTx]
    #22777122 -

Quote:
"I think it even affects 'free will'. What if given your DNA, body chemistry, parents, city, era, life events, etc,---- an alien, or entity, or super-computer could predict everything you will do?"


What if that super-computer is your brain? With binary and bicameral software/capabilities.


--------------------
I am whatever Darwin needs me to be.


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Re: Can the future be predicted precisely given enough knowledge? [Re: sudly]
    #22777129 -

it negates novelty, which I feel is essential to existence.

no novelty, no existence.

Its basically the one prediction of the future we might comfortably make, that of no existence.

But, again, novelty..something will eventually happen to nothing right?

As nothing exists on an already infinite time-line it wont even have to wait.


--------------------
zen by age ten times six hundred lifetimes
Light up the darkness.

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Re: Can the future be predicted precisely given enough knowledge? [Re: hTx]
    #22777138 -

Maybe the brain is a filter that disperses the perception of a set timeline.

Every disturbance of the set timeline(the now/moment) is a novelty.

Nothing may happen to everything one day.



--------------------
I am whatever Darwin needs me to be.


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Re: Can the future be predicted precisely given enough knowledge? [Re: sudly]
    #22777145 -

The brain has a filter which does this, and this very filter is disrupted by tripping.

You'll notice a lot more disturbances while tripping.

And yes, but then everything will happen to nothing, again.


--------------------
zen by age ten times six hundred lifetimes
Light up the darkness.

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Re: Can the future be predicted precisely given enough knowledge? [Re: sudly]
    #22777151 -

- Lee Smolin (Perimeter Institute) on Time Reborn
There is an interesting part in which he quotes someone:"If time would stop and every atom stopped at its angle and direction and someone would be very very very good at math, he could predict the future."


--------------------
What is a mind, if not something to be messed with? What is consciousness, if not a state to be altered?

~I Feel
:mushroom2:
at Home~

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Re: Can the future be predicted precisely given enough knowledge? [Re: hTx]
    #22777179 -

*has

I don't see how that becomes a circuit to you.
Everything that will happen to nothing can happen but that could be nothing.


--------------------
I am whatever Darwin needs me to be.


Edited by sudly (01/14/16 04:05 AM)

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Re: Can the future be predicted precisely given enough knowledge? [Re: laughingdog]
    #22781374 -

laughingdog said:
third, I would argue, that the notion of enough or complete knowledge is a myth. Information has no value without organization, context, and interpretation --- all of which generate further information---in other words information is infinite.


An interesting, sort of metaphorical historical example is: "On The Road" by Jack Keroack. It was written on a roll of paper feed into a typewriter (was back in the day) instead of pages, as he frantically tried to get it all in. Was an interesting literary experiment. Does convey a sense of excitement. Too bad he never heard of vipasana meditation, he might have been happier long term. You may remeber he was a star of the beat movement, but late in life ended up an unhappy heavy beer drinker.

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Re: Can the future be predicted precisely given enough knowledge? [Re: laughingdog]
    #22782242 -

I have always held the belief that mathematical physics have already determined an unimaginable amount of events through nothing more than adding up every variable that ever exists.
It is near impossible for us to account for every variable, but SOMETHING sure is.

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Re: Can the future be predicted precisely given enough knowledge? [Re: godisamushroom]
    #22782715 -

Well as far as probabilities go..the determination is an effect of time..and therein is the surgeon called for gates manifesting inside and out of the time..

So there is a gate towards the future..but its centered in the now..

Ultimately we can predict events like the weather changings..and an increase in technology.. But ultimately we have to be there as people who are persons choosing and there fore administrating their own law into existence..

So the only problem is of choice..if you said that I will meet you in ten years based on Radioactive decay and thermodynamics...and we both agree...

But at the very moment in the ten years hence..we still have to make the choice to actualize the prophecy or moment so to speak..So its true that plans are open ended...

and there is a certain amount of original dependantation..Such that the common laws of existence hold true..so that we are always on a type of determinism aspect..of which we call time or matter or the quick measurement of the Universe which is Everything..But we still have a choice..and thats the anomaly..Because we can say that we are here because of past events that have led us here..and then we can extend the forward and say that the future is caused by the events that were former to it..and therefore the latter is a caused event because of the duration of time..and the effects of existence..that we call cause and effect...But we are here still meditating or mediating..in our existence as mirrors or reflections of each other..but lucky to us we all look a bit different..and we all have a certain amount of Permutations to play in this role..of the cosmic dice so to speak..which is a Phantom of the menace..of which this is called the Force..so to speak..the idea is that Miracles may have happened in the past..but what to do in the future is totally up to us..so thats the key in the ingredient in The Course in Miracles..

And there in we sew in a prophet..as Brendan and my whole Flock I congratulate you to enter my own reality and my own eternity...in which we make choices and respond from there..


--------------------
Thank you for your Time...

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Re: Can the future be predicted precisely given enough knowledge? [Re: BrendanFlock]
    #22782720 -

Peace is a given argument..you can always be determined to do something and therefore complete it in the future..but its up to you to keep the upkeep and being meditating on the meaning of life or whatever..for which you have allot to say..and therefore the regards are likely to be more thermodynamic than not..or knot..of the Gordian knot of time itself..which is an honest reflection of ourselves in a condition called mason eternity..and there in do we have the rites..to make sure that we can create a future that we have planned and therein we sew together as a community this knowledge...And that is Panacea.. and that is Peace of Mind!


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Thank you for your Time...

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Re: Can the future be predicted precisely given enough knowledge? [Re: BrendanFlock]
    #22782732 -

I hope not.


--------------------
Just a fool on the hill.

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Re: Can the future be predicted precisely given enough knowledge? [Re: pineninja]
    #22783356 -



--------------------
zen by age ten times six hundred lifetimes
Light up the darkness.

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General Interest > Philosophy, Sociology & Psychology
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