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 johnnyfive
Burning withCircles!
Registered: 07/02/02
Posts: 886
Loc: Hell
Last seen: 19 years, 6 months
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 Practice in future prediction excerise! 
#1601476 - 06/02/03 01:07 PM (20 years, 6 months ago) |
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I just want to reply to a post by starting a post, many come here with strange concidences. Wiether future base or not. Im going to share an excerise that some may be interested in.
Rolling the dice and keeping score of how many times you predicte the correct roll.
Maybe roll 100 times, trying to predict, not make the dice become the selected number. You could first write down the predicted number then roll and write the second number as the actual number.
Try it with different people (friends and family), and see if some people are better at it then others. Which could PROVE esp is envolved.
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And the gameshow host rings the buzzer (brrnnntt) oh and now you get a face full of face!
Edited by johnnyfive (06/02/03 01:09 PM)
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 Swami
Eggshell Walker
Registered: 01/18/00
Posts: 15,413
Loc: In the hen house
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Re: Practice in future prediction excerise! [Re: johnnyfive]
#1601534 - 06/02/03 01:29 PM (20 years, 6 months ago) |
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I predict that the guessing will follow the standard probability distribution curve.
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The proof is in the pudding.
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Phluck
Carpal Tunnel
Registered: 04/10/99
Posts: 11,394
Loc: Canada
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Re: Practice in future prediction excerise! [Re: Swami]
#1601548 - 06/02/03 01:36 PM (20 years, 6 months ago) |
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Yup.
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"I have no valid complaint against hustlers. No rational bitch. But the act of selling is repulsive to me. I harbor a secret urge to whack a salesman in the face, crack his teeth and put red bumps around his eyes." -Hunter S Thompson
http://phluck.is-after.us
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Anonymous
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Re: Practice in future prediction excerise! [Re: Swami]
#1602269 - 06/02/03 05:48 PM (20 years, 6 months ago) |
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Or not.
My guess would be that some people would be better at it than others.
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Deiymiyan
I AM
Registered: 04/17/03
Posts: 656
Loc: Within the Realm of Imagi...
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Re: Practice in future prediction excerise! [Re: ]
#1602848 - 06/02/03 08:45 PM (20 years, 6 months ago) |
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But that's the thing with the standard distribution curve...
It is "bell" shaped... meaning...
Most of the sample is the average and the ends of the bell are those who would be particularilly gifted and conversely those who were predictively "challenged" !!
The normal distribution curve is one of the basic concepts of statistics. They attempt to explain it using the analogy of rolling a dice.
The higher the sample size, the more it would fit the curve.
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Dei Gratia de integro,
Veni Vidi Vici:
In Nomine Domini..
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chodamunky
Cheers!
Registered: 02/28/02
Posts: 2,030
Loc: sailing the seas of chees...
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Re: Practice in future prediction excerise! [Re: Deiymiyan]
#1603067 - 06/02/03 10:02 PM (20 years, 6 months ago) |
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But you see, there is one fundamental assumption with the probability bell curve: that time is not a variable in the experiment. For example, if I keep all of the variables in an experiment the same, then it shouldn't matter whether I do the experiment on a Monday or Friday. Perhaps time itself has qualities, have you ever felt a time in your life where everything seemed to be going perfectly, while at other times your life hit rock bottom? Or do you notice how time seems to be speeding up? Is this a result of a increasingly chaotic society or is our society chaotic as a result of time speeding up? When I talked to my physics prof about this kind of stuff he just looked at me funny 
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infidelGOD
illusion
Registered: 04/18/02
Posts: 3,040
Loc: there
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 Re: Practice in future prediction excerise! [Re: johnnyfive]
#1603295 - 06/02/03 11:27 PM (20 years, 6 months ago) |
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Of course some people will be better at it than others.. there should be a 16.666666666666666667% chance that you can "predict" the correct number coming up. after a thousand rolls, some will be a little bit below and some will be a little bit above that (bell curve). so would you say that those people who can predict it more has some kind of "gift"?
I say that if someone can consistently stay above 20% after a few thousand rolls, then he has some ability. BUT! if there was a large enough sample, lets say you tested 1 billion people, THERE WILL BE SOMEONE who can predict it 20% of the time by PURE CHANCE! (again because of the bell curve) that is the nature of probability. and if you hypothetically tested... lets say 100 trillion people or something like that THERE WILL BE SOMEONE who can predict it 99% the time, also by PURE CHANCE. As long as there is a sufficiently large sample, you will get freak results.
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Deiymiyan
I AM
Registered: 04/17/03
Posts: 656
Loc: Within the Realm of Imagi...
Last seen: 14 years, 4 months
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Re: Practice in future prediction excerise! [Re: chodamunky]
#1603342 - 06/02/03 11:49 PM (20 years, 6 months ago) |
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"But you see, there is one fundamental assumption with the probability bell curve: that time is not a variable in the experiment."
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Without " time " as an independent-type relative variable, you have no experiment.
Could you explain further what you mean... It's late and my brain wants to sleep.
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" For example, if I keep all of the variables in an experiment the same, then it shouldn't matter whether I do the experiment on a Monday or Friday. "
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I'd enjoy seeing a graph of that.
Without a variable change, you have an origin.
You do, for certain, need the presence some constants in an experiment; but then, those are not variables.
[Unless you mean the concept of a Constant-Variable... but still, I don't think you are refering to that.]
Im really sorry, but I can't follow why it would matter whether you did your experiment on Monday or Friday.
If you explain that further, maybe we could talk about it a bit.
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"Perhaps time itself has qualities, have you ever felt a time in your life where everything seemed to be going perfectly, while at other times your life hit rock bottom?"
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Agreed, yes and yes.
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"Or do you notice how time seems to be speeding up?"
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If you are refering to time as in Physics, then there is NO WAY you could estimate a relative time increase/decrease in terms of speed unless you were outside of the system as a third party-type observer. [ ... if someone out there knows a method of determining it.. such that it is a reality... PLEASE ! share it with me !]
<< The only thing I could think of, but it's theoretical, is that time would perhaps increase [elaps more quickly] if you were approaching a seriously dense portion of matter... Like a black hole. But no one would ever get such experimental data... Especially if you got too close to the Event Horizon. >>
Check this out... If you were a fish in the deep ocean and you were somewhere in the middle from the surface of the water and the bottom... say there was a km above and a km below. If the water you were swiming in began to move, it would take you with it... Remember we are talking about 2 km of water. If it moved slightly faster or slightly slower, I'm not so sure you would notice it... You would be oblivious of the change.
Let's say you stood beside a river though... Depending upon conditions, you'd be able to observe any significant changes.
Now, if you are meaning time, in terms of your perception of it, then ya... I've noticed it go faster AND relatively slower....
Time flies when you are having fun....
AND
It all relative to what side of the bathroom door you are on !!
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"Is this a result of a increasingly chaotic society or is our society chaotic as a result of time speeding up?"
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I think that society is getting more chaotic because, as a whole, it is in a transitional stage. Just due to the fact that things happen [ events ], time IS involved.
Things maybe got a little wierd and chaotic at every change... like from stone age to the next... [ There is always a tendancy to resist change... But once it happens, usually, it's smooth sailing, and it becomes agreed upon that it was a good move. ... If you disagree, better get out yer Flintstone mobile!  ]
We are now in the Informationnal age... And let me tell ya !!! We're GATHERING !!!! [ Kind of hunter and gatherer style... but we're doing it ! ]
I believe that we are heading in the right direction.
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Dei Gratia de integro,
Veni Vidi Vici:
In Nomine Domini..
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Zero7a1
Leaving YourWasteland
Registered: 10/23/02
Posts: 3,594
Loc: Passing Cloud
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Re: Practice in future prediction excerise! [Re: johnnyfive]
#1603615 - 06/03/03 02:57 AM (20 years, 6 months ago) |
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i wonder... these things this Chance... is on the basis of chaos if you think about it... all it is is an applied order to chaos... a form of "control" for understanding the randomness of occurances. But say you master the system of understanding... you break the bonds... you can start to influence the chaos around you. much like you take control of a dream... its chaotic based on certain floppy rules... sometimes you are the victim of these occurance and others you have great control over..
flimsy example. Graduation night. There are prizes given out to roughly 301 students... i think i dont know.
me and my friends are all talking about it. seeing who gets what... laughing at people who won the free checking accounts... and so my friend will is saying " im going to be so pissed if i dont win something good"... (personally i keep my mouth shut) cause i know this is all such a game.. its so predictable... life seems to be predicatble more than you think to realize at times. but anyway... another one of my friends is kind of like "uh oh... i hope i dont win something shitty" he wins a beauty set. my friend will hopes that someone gets something shitty and hopes that he gets something good... but we look at eachother and i say somethign and he says "SHIT! now im going to get something bad cause i said that..." his name is drawn and for whatever reason he gets bean bag chair... and im thinking in my head... (system of karma... system of chance... influence badly... recieve badly... trick the systemm and you still get shit... feel the chance... influence the chance... take what you can get...) i stayed in that state as long as i could... my name was drawn.. ( i hadnt sad anything bad or wished anything bad on others... i thought to myself... i coudl accept a free checking account... (and i could)) i dont really care to much about material stuff... but it does occupy my time... anyway enough of that... i won a dvd player...
existance to me is a mix between a dream and the reality of the unescapable.. whether it be life or death... eternity.. whatever have you... and that we can influence this world. much like we can do a dream. but we have to give ourselves to it. we have to embrace our visions of the future.. we have to "dare to believe" in who and what we can become.
what is so strange to think that we can see into the future.... i dont think its strange...
to me what is strange... and not quite so strange at the same time... is to see into the future... and to act in that way... My dream.. my dream of the future. and do what i can to get there.... and if you can see it... and if you can influence it... you will be there too. and this nightmare we see.. this nightmare of vulnerability and incapability wont strike us... we will be free! free to please and dream 
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What?
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johnnyfive
Burning withCircles!
Registered: 07/02/02
Posts: 886
Loc: Hell
Last seen: 19 years, 6 months
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Re: Practice in future prediction excerise! [Re: Swami]
#1606267 - 06/03/03 09:04 PM (20 years, 6 months ago) |
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Your right, i don't know why i didn't think of that
1 dice 1:6
3 dice 1:18
i figure that even multiple dice would produce the same curve.
Eh, scrach the idea, ill find a better one!
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And the gameshow host rings the buzzer (brrnnntt) oh and now you get a face full of face!
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Sclorch
Clyster
Registered: 07/12/99
Posts: 4,805
Loc: On the Brink of Madness
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 Re: Practice in future prediction excerise! [Re: Swami]
#1606974 - 06/04/03 01:50 AM (20 years, 6 months ago) |
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Quote:
I predict that the guessing will follow the standard probability distribution curve.
Oh my.... oh geez... oh.... oh... THE BLESSED ONE!
*Sclorch is floored by Swami's magnificence*
Hail thee, oh great one!
I beg of thee to predict a balanced life for me.
*kisses the dirt at Swami's feet*
Your powers are amazing, indeed!
*bangs head on ground twenty-three times and runs off screaming "the sky is falling"...*
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Note: In desperate need of a cure...
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chodamunky
Cheers!
Registered: 02/28/02
Posts: 2,030
Loc: sailing the seas of chees...
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Re: Practice in future prediction excerise! [Re: Deiymiyan]
#1607751 - 06/04/03 11:41 AM (20 years, 6 months ago) |
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Im really sorry, but I can't follow why it would matter whether you did your experiment on Monday or Friday. If you explain that further, maybe we could talk about it a bit.
I'd love to explain it in detail but I would not do it justice, I suggest you listen to Terence McKenna himself and his Timewave Zero theory.
Right click this link and Save Target As onto your computer. Whether you think this is plausible or not, it will definately blow your mind
I Ching - Habit and Novelty
For lots of McKenna mp3s, go here Psychadelic Library
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