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Shop: Myyco.com Golden Teacher Liquid Culture For Sale   Unfolding Nature Unfolding Nature: Being in the Implicate Order

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Re: Predictions for the Iowa primary [Re: Madtowntripper]
    #7827660 -

thats some crazy peer pressure shit the Dem's do.:grin:


The democrats require a 15% threshold for a candidate or else he/she gets no votes in that caucus. You assembly in groups according to your candidate preference and if your group doesn’t meet the threshold number you have to decide which group to align with...


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America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Re: Predictions for the Iowa primary [Re: fireworks_god]
    #7827670 -

Quote:
I think that the nature of the polls are such that they are inherently incapable of registering Ron Paul's support.


I am curious what the basis is for your claim. Do you think Paul's supporters when answering pollster's calls are sandbagging by lying and saying they are really supporting another candidate?

How are you able to locate this phantom support when no one else can?


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“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch

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Re: Predictions for the Iowa primary [Re: zorbman]
    #7827678 -

From what I can glean from his incredibly verbose ramblings, he feels that since most of the polls are calling people who have voted in previous caucus' to see how they will vote in the next one, and most of the people who support Ron Paul are first-time caucusers, this means that there is some vast undercurrent of uncounted RP votes.

But seriously, the guy is polling in the single digits. I am perfectly willing to admit that there are some uncounted RP votes, but 40%?

No fucking way.


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After one comes, through contact with it's administrators, no longer to cherish greatly the law as a remedy in abuses, then the bottle becomes a sovereign means of direct action.  If you cannot throw it at least you can always drink out of it.  - Ernest Hemingway

If it is life that you feel you are missing I can tell you where to find it.  In the law courts, in business, in government.  There is nothing occurring in the streets. Nothing but a dumbshow composed of the helpless and the impotent.    -Cormac MacCarthy

He who learns must suffer. And even in our sleep pain that cannot forget falls drop by drop upon the heart, and in our own despair, against our will, comes wisdom to us by the awful grace of God.  - Aeschylus

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Re: Predictions for the Iowa primary [Re: zorbman]
    #7828009 -

> I am curious what the basis is for your claim.

I think he is polling at least 8% shy of actual numbers. There are various factors at play. Some may matter more than others, but I think all of the following add up: 1) His support comes from a lot of first time voters. These people won't be called in most polls. 2) His support is very modern/young and digital. Polls do not call cell phones. 3) Many of his supporters are crossing party lines. Polls usually do not call these people. 4) His supports have proven to be extremely motivated and tenacious. They are going to vote in mass, no mater what, to make certain they are heard. 5) There are a lot of undecided voters. Many people claim to be undecided to avoid the "stigma" of being a Paul supporter. 6) There are many examples of poor/misleading polling where Ron Paul isn't an option, or is grouped as "other". 7) The media has been intentionally down playing Ron Paul's support. Because of this, any numbers released for Paul tend to be worse case.

Paul at 9% plus my 8% fudge factor gives 17% minimum, assuming my fudge factor is correct.


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Just another spore in the wind.

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Re: Predictions for the Iowa primary [Re: Seuss]
    #7828045 -

we will know at 8pm central time, unless the turnout is large and crazy.


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America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Re: Predictions for the Iowa primary [Re: zappaisgod]
    #7828057 -

zappaisgod said:
Nowhere, they are both too close. Also almost meaningless. That these two twatwallader states that nobody lives in get all this attention and supposedly Set the Tone is utterly ludicrous and allows for virtually limitless blowhardery by pinhead pundits. That said, I see a McCain resurgence and Romney strength and Huckabee distraction. Giuliani has, wisely or not, opted not to fight battles he can't win. Thompson will have his appeal, I'm just not sure that he is perceived as serious enough. Dems? Obama Clinton Edwards. All almost tied and the order of no consequence. It's fucking Iowa, fer chrissakes, who gives a shit?


Since 1928 the winner of Iowa has gotten the nomination every time except twice (with Buchanan and McCain)


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This reminds me of the ludicrous account he gave Mr. Langton, of the despicable state of a young gentleman of good family. “Sir, when I heard of him last, he was running about town shooting cats.” And then in a sort of kindly reverie, he bethought himself of his own favorite cat, and said, “But Hodge shan’t be shot: no, no, Hodge shall not be shot.”

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Re: Predictions for the Iowa primary [Re: discombobulate]
    #7828200 -

I'm pretty sure that's wrong.


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what's with neocons and the word 'ilk'?

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Re: Predictions for the Iowa primary [Re: Gijith]
    #7828255 -

I read somewhere that only the top three finishers remain viable contenders after caucus night...

but i don't see Thompson or Paul dropping out if they don't place in the top three like the media/polls are predicting.


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America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Re: Predictions for the Iowa primary [Re: lonestar2004]
    #7828304 -

The doors will close at 7 CST and I'd have to imagine we'll have the results in by 8. This website here should be the one we are all glued to. http://www.iowagop.net/ Each precinct will be posted as the results come in.

The voting process is pretty cool and should work well to avoid fraud. The votes will be counted in each precinct and then the number will be announced there, and it will be easy for people there to verify that it was done accurately. That number is submitted into their central system and then it is released and we should all know. :smile:


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:redpanda:
If I should die this very moment
I wouldn't fear
For I've never known completeness
Like being here
Wrapped in the warmth of you
Loving every breath of you
:heartpump: :bunnyhug: :yinyang:

:yinyang: :levitate: :earth: :levitate: :yinyang:

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Re: Predictions for the Iowa primary [Re: Madtowntripper]
    #7828318 -

Madtowntripper said:
I understand that most of the Republicans think that he's a liberal in conservatives clothing, but whatever you think about the man, he has character.  Can you really say that about any of these other moolakhs?



Ron Paul has far more character, political experience, and intellectual understanding of reality than any other candidate. The man lives and breathes character. :headbang:


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:redpanda:
If I should die this very moment
I wouldn't fear
For I've never known completeness
Like being here
Wrapped in the warmth of you
Loving every breath of you
:heartpump: :bunnyhug: :yinyang:

:yinyang: :levitate: :earth: :levitate: :yinyang:

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Re: Predictions for the Iowa primary [Re: fireworks_god]
    #7828324 -

fireworks_god said:
The doors will close at 7 CST and I'd have to imagine we'll have the results in by 8. This website here should be the one we are all glued to. http://www.iowagop.net/ Each precinct will be posted as the results come in.

The voting process is pretty cool and should work well to avoid fraud. The votes will be counted in each precinct and then the number will be announced there, and it will be easy for people there to verify that it was done accurately. That number is submitted into their central system and then it is released and we should all know. :smile:



good find!


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America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Re: Predictions for the Iowa primary [Re: lonestar2004]
    #7828371 -

I definitely see Thompson dropping out before February. But then most of my predictions have been wrong lately.


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what's with neocons and the word 'ilk'?

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Re: Predictions for the Iowa primary [Re: Gijith]
    #7828407 -

i hope u are wrong again.:grin: because if the top three tonight are Huck, Rom, and Mcinsane i will leave the Rep party.


--------------------
America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Re: Predictions for the Iowa primary [Re: lonestar2004]
    #7828587 -

Fox news has reported extra high turnout. IMO high turnout could help Ron Paul and Obama.


--------------------
America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Re: Predictions for the Iowa primary [Re: lonestar2004]
    #7828702 -

Fox news early entrance POlls

Huck 33%
Rom 23%
Fred 15%



Obama 33%
Clinton 27%
Edwards 21%


--------------------
America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Re: Predictions for the Iowa primary [Re: lonestar2004]
    #7828782 -

early real vote


Huck 33%
Rom 23%
Fred 18%


--------------------
America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Re: Predictions for the Iowa primary [Re: lonestar2004]
    #7828810 -

Ron Paul and McCain both at 11% early.


--------------------
America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Re: Predictions for the Iowa primary [Re: lonestar2004]
    #7828952 -

Drudge is reporting results

Quote:
RESULTS:
Clinton 32; Obama 31; Edwards 34
Huckabee 33; Romney 24 McCain 11 Paul 0; Thompson 17 Giuliani 0


That's what he calls them so I have no reason to believe otherwise but the math doesn't exactly seem right for the Rs.


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Re: Predictions for the Iowa primary [Re: zappaisgod]
    #7828983 -

lets just hope Huckabee is a one state candidate!


--------------------
America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Re: Predictions for the Iowa primary [Re: lonestar2004]
    #7829023 -

That moron has no shot in any state with a literacy rate above .1. The shudder mainstreams would love to see him as the nominee because even a staunch nazi such as myself wouldn't vote for him but he really has about a little better chance than the Rontard. Once we get these two retard states behind us the score will start counting. Which is as it should be.


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Shop: Myyco.com Golden Teacher Liquid Culture For Sale   Unfolding Nature Unfolding Nature: Being in the Implicate Order

General Interest > Political Discussion
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