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OfflineCoaster
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Re: Hillary and Obama Neck and Neck so far... (0vs0%) Official OH/TX Primary results thread [Re: JonnyOnTheSpot]
    #8104292 - 03/05/08 02:43 AM (13 years, 5 days ago)

dam hillary pulled it off
way laaame


--------------------


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Offlinelonestar2004
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Re: Hillary and Obama Neck and Neck so far... (0vs0%) Official OH/TX Primary results thread [Re: fireworks_god]
    #8105155 - 03/05/08 10:28 AM (13 years, 5 days ago)

Quote:

fireworks_god said:


At first the prospect of eight more weeks of campaigning was seeming pretty damned undesireable, but I think its the best thing that could happen. Its almost like having three near-equally strong national candidates :lol: (like the editor of the Washington Post said, its good for democracy, good for the press, and good for those who like to follow this stuff :hehehe:). It'll be interesting to watch this play out. :sherlock:







I'm sure McCain is thrilled!:grin:


--------------------
America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama


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Offlineblackegg
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Re: Hillary and Obama Neck and Neck so far... (0vs0%) Official OH/TX Primary results thread [Re: lonestar2004]
    #8105243 - 03/05/08 11:01 AM (13 years, 4 days ago)



God Help us.


--------------------
'Pain is meant to wake us up. People try to hide their pain. But they're wrong. Pain is something to carry, like a radio. You feel your strength in the experience of pain. It's all in how you carry it. That's what matters. Pain is a feeling. Your feelings are a part of you. Your own reality. If you feel ashamed of them, and hide them, you're letting society destroy your reality. You should stand up for your right to feel your pain and leave the Shroomery.' ~ Jim Morrison


Edited by blackegg (03/05/08 11:06 AM)


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Offlinefireworks_godS
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Re: Hillary and Obama Neck and Neck so far... (0vs0%) Official OH/TX Primary results thread [Re: lonestar2004]
    #8105252 - 03/05/08 11:04 AM (13 years, 4 days ago)

Quote:

lonestar2004 said:
I'm sure McCain is thrilled!:grin:




I wouldn't be so certain, there are advantages for him and disadvantages for him regarding this. For example, here's two strong candidates, both pretty much equally proponents of the same platform, and this could really give them an advantage to both take him on while kind of elbowing each other. It isn't as though they are going to destroy each other vying for the nomination. :shrug:


--------------------
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If I should die this very moment
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Like being here
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Offlinelonestar2004
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Re: Hillary and Obama Neck and Neck so far... (0vs0%) Official OH/TX Primary results thread [Re: fireworks_god]
    #8105285 - 03/05/08 11:16 AM (13 years, 4 days ago)

Quote:

fireworks_god said:
Quote:

lonestar2004 said:
I'm sure McCain is thrilled!:grin:




I wouldn't be so certain, there are advantages for him and disadvantages for him regarding this. For example, here's two strong candidates, both pretty much equally proponents of the same platform, and this could really give them an advantage to both take him on while kind of elbowing each other. It isn't as though they are going to destroy each other vying for the nomination. :shrug:




Trust me McCain LOVES the Clinton machine doing the  dirty work on Obama. :thumbup: and how much more money will Obama have to spend in the next 8 weeks???$$$$$$$ MILLIONS


--------------------
America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama


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Offlineblackegg
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Re: Hillary and Obama Neck and Neck so far... (0vs0%) Official OH/TX Primary results thread [Re: lonestar2004]
    #8105517 - 03/05/08 12:29 PM (13 years, 4 days ago)

Yeah, plus I think there really is some bitter rivalry between Hillary and Obama supporters (not on these threads but...)
that could lead to a small percentage that get frustrated and don't vote.


--------------------
'Pain is meant to wake us up. People try to hide their pain. But they're wrong. Pain is something to carry, like a radio. You feel your strength in the experience of pain. It's all in how you carry it. That's what matters. Pain is a feeling. Your feelings are a part of you. Your own reality. If you feel ashamed of them, and hide them, you're letting society destroy your reality. You should stand up for your right to feel your pain and leave the Shroomery.' ~ Jim Morrison


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Offlineblackegg
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Re: Hillary and Obama Neck and Neck so far... (0vs0%) Official OH/TX Primary results thread [Re: blackegg]
    #8105527 - 03/05/08 12:33 PM (13 years, 4 days ago)

something else...


WASHINGTON - Barack Obama regained lost ground in the fierce competition for Democratic convention delegates on Wednesday based on results from the Texas caucuses, partially negating the impact of Hillary Rodham Clinton's string of comeback primary victories.
From:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080305/ap_on_el_pr/campaign_rdp


--------------------
'Pain is meant to wake us up. People try to hide their pain. But they're wrong. Pain is something to carry, like a radio. You feel your strength in the experience of pain. It's all in how you carry it. That's what matters. Pain is a feeling. Your feelings are a part of you. Your own reality. If you feel ashamed of them, and hide them, you're letting society destroy your reality. You should stand up for your right to feel your pain and leave the Shroomery.' ~ Jim Morrison


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Invisiblevonhumboldt
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Re: Hillary and Obama Neck and Neck so far... (0vs0%) Official OH/TX Primary results thread [Re: blackegg]
    #8105855 - 03/05/08 02:04 PM (13 years, 4 days ago)

The fact remains that Obama remains far ahead in delegate count and once the Texas caucuses are counted (complete in the next few days), he'll have more delegates from Texas despite "losing" the popular vote.

The only way for Clinton to win the nomination is to win every single remaining primaries/caucuses by a large margin (65%+), having Florida and Michigan seated in her favor, and persuade super delegates to vote for her. This is nearly impossible. And if she succeeds in pulling this feat off, she'll destroy the Democratic Party, push the race all the way to Denver, and only have 8 weeks to campaign for the general election (all the while McCain is campaigning and raising money from today to November). If that happens, McCain wins. 1968 and 1972 all over again.

The MSM seems to avoid mentioning this - despite the Obama campaign constantly hammering the point that Clinton is for all practical purposes out of reach of the nomination - because a horse race boosts ratings and sells newspapers. The news perception is Clinton has won a comeback (despite nearly always being ahead in Texas, Ohio, and Rhode Island in most polling) and she's once again on the way toward nomination. This is simply not true once you look at the hard, cold numbers.

A good read:

Quote:


It's 3 a.m. and Hillary's Dreaming

Posted March 5, 2008 | 01:38 AM (EST)
It's 3 a.m. and Hillary's Dreaming

To be a winner you have to win. And Tuesday night Hillary Clinton unreservedly won three out of four states. Barack Obama, however, has won twice as many primary and caucus states overall, leads substantially in the popular vote and continues to hold a mathematically insurmountable lead in elected delegates.

For two or three days, the Clinton campaign will spin itself -and the media--silly, breathlessly celebrating her overwhelming victories in Rhode Island and Ohio and her squeaker in Texas.

After the confetti is swept and the champagne bottles are tossed a more sober reality will take hold. Not just that her net gain of delegates this week will be, at most, in the single digits. But worse. There is no plausible scenario in which Clinton can win the nomination. At least not democratically.

Seven more weeks of campaign slog through Wyoming, Mississippi and into Pennsylvania. And then maybe tack on six more weeks, if you can believe it, into Indiana , West Virginia, and a handful of other states and into Puerto Rico on the 7th of June, quite literally into D-Day. Whatever the outcome, even if Clinton wins all 16 remaining contests -and some of them by veritable landslides, she will still be dozens of elected delegates behind Barack Obama.

She will not be the winner because she will have not won the majority of elected Democratic delegates. Clinton will be exactly where she was the night before Ohio and Texas: in second place and with no way to become the nominee unless enough unelected Superdelegates defy the popular will of the electorate and throw her the nomination (or unless you somehow believe that she can every coming primary with a 20 point margin).

Indeed, as Jonathan Alter has pointed out, Clinton can't win an elected majority even if she triumphs in what are now likely to be re-scheduled primaries in the cranky states of Michigan and Florida. Again, we'd be back to the Superdelegates and, therefore, back to a dicey game of chicken by the Democratic Party elite. How many Superdelegates are willing to politically die, or willing to spark an intra-party party civil war, just to save Clinton's bacon?

"The 1968 Chicago convention would look like a picnic compared to what Denver would become," a long-time political biographer said on election eve, predicting a youth uprising at the site of this summer's Democratic Convention if the election is thrown to Clinton. "This isn't 40 years ago," he said. "Now, everyone's got a car. And everyone who believed in the change that Clinton scoffs at would wind up surrounding that convention."

Maybe. Maybe not. Who am I to predict that the Democrats are too smart to self-destruct in what should be, by all other measures, a watershed year? The more steely-eyed amongst us, then, would do well to psychologically prepare for the nomination going, somehow or another, to Hillary Clinton. Which means, in turn, that Democrats ought to simultaneously prepare to be beaten by John McCain.

Clinton regained her footing this past week primarily by running a classic, Republican-style campaign of negative, fear-based ads. She blanketed the airwaves with a detestable spot that, stripped to its core message, warned that if Obama were selected, your children could be murdered in their beds in the middle of the night. Somewhere up above (or more likely from down below), departed GOP mudmeister Lee Atwater is cracking a grin.

The spot worked so well - with exit polls showing that voters who made a last-minute decision went in droves for Clinton-- that she couldn't resist reprising the line during her Tuesday night victory speech delivered to a cheering throng in Columbus. "When that phone rings at 3 a.m. in the White House," she said. "There's no time for speeches or on on-the-job training."

Perfect. Clinton's done McCain the favor of cutting his best general election campaign spot for him. All he has to do is cut her answering the phone out of the last 5 seconds of the ad and splice his own mug in there instead. If Clinton succeeds in making what's politely called the "national security issue" the center of the campaign by arguing she's a safer choice than Obama, then why wouldn't McCain argue that he's even better than she? McCain's already begun that effort. If Hillary's nominated, he'll most likely succeed.





http://www.huffingtonpost.com/marc-cooper/its-3-am-and-hillarys_b_89936.html


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Offlinelonestar2004
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Re: Hillary and Obama Neck and Neck so far... (0vs0%) Official OH/TX Primary results thread [Re: vonhumboldt]
    #8105878 - 03/05/08 02:11 PM (13 years, 4 days ago)

This is gonna be so much fun to watch.:grin:


--------------------
America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama


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Offlineblackegg
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Re: Hillary and Obama Neck and Neck so far... (0vs0%) Official OH/TX Primary results thread [Re: lonestar2004]
    #8105946 - 03/05/08 02:30 PM (13 years, 4 days ago)

I think you mean, "gunna"...
:rolleyes:


--------------------
'Pain is meant to wake us up. People try to hide their pain. But they're wrong. Pain is something to carry, like a radio. You feel your strength in the experience of pain. It's all in how you carry it. That's what matters. Pain is a feeling. Your feelings are a part of you. Your own reality. If you feel ashamed of them, and hide them, you're letting society destroy your reality. You should stand up for your right to feel your pain and leave the Shroomery.' ~ Jim Morrison


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Re: Hillary and Obama Neck and Neck so far... (0vs0%) Official OH/TX Primary results thread [Re: lonestar2004]
    #8105959 - 03/05/08 02:32 PM (13 years, 4 days ago)

who won texas?


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Offlinefireworks_godS
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Re: Hillary and Obama Neck and Neck so far... (0vs0%) Official OH/TX Primary results thread [Re: vonhumboldt]
    #8105960 - 03/05/08 02:33 PM (13 years, 4 days ago)

In all fairness, the cold hard numbers suggests that it is just as impossible for Obama to make much progress. The rest of the campaign is psychological, and it has more to do with who is actually better suited to run a national campaign. I'm all for Obama but it isn't just a matter of cold hard numbers. She won because he failed to demonstrate effectively enough that he's the candidate on two very crucial issues, and here's a counter-article. Its his nomination to lose, really; the reason he lost last night was because he was counting the numbers and not assuring the voters.

Quote:

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/03/05/beyond_math_to_a_tougher_messa.html

Beyond Math to a Tougher Message for Obama
By Dan Balz
Barack Obama awoke Wednesday to a new race for the Democratic nomination. To hear him explain Hillary Clinton's stunning victories in Ohio and Texas, Tuesday's results did little to change the basic trajectory of the race. He has more delegates and by the numbers, he still holds the higher ground. But arithmetic is not a message and inevitability is no more an argument for him than it was for her last fall.

Clinton won the two big states on Tuesday because they fit her better than Obama, because she campaigned harder than Obama and because she raised doubts about Obama. Obama lost, despite his superior resources and the momentum gained from winning 11 consecutive contests in February, because he lost both the economic and the national security arguments with his rival. Although he gained considerable ground on Clinton, the late-deciders broke decisively for her.

Obama is understandably riveted on the delegate count. It is his lifeline now that his campaign has hit another stretch of turbulence. Run the numbers every way you can and they still say he emerges from the primaries with more pledged delegates, more states won and perhaps more popular votes. But he cannot emerge with the 2,025 delegates needed to win the nomination. That too is the reality.

That leaves this race not only in the hands of voters in another dozen contests, including states like Mississippi, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Oregon and West Virginia, but also, once again, in the hands of the roughly 800 superdelegates who are free to support whichever candidate they choose. They all will be judging Obama and Clinton on the quality of the campaigns they run from here forward and on their judgment as to which candidate would be the stronger nominee against John McCain in the fall. Obama will have to win that competition.

An overnight survey of around the country Democrats -- some backing Obama, some for Clinton and some neutral -- showed considerable consensus about what Obama must do to rebound from his losses in Texas and Ohio. In short it was: quit talking numbers and start getting tough.

"Obama needs to stop talking math and get much more aggressive in defining Senator Clinton," said Bill Carrick, a California-based Democratic strategist. "The Obama campaign will need to use paid media to do that. Big complicated states have lots of working class, older voters, and rural voters who have been good for Senator Clinton. Senator Obama needs a message that takes Senator Clinton on with these voters."

"He clearly has not closed the deal and I don't think a math argument will be enough," noted a pro-Clinton Democrat. "Voters (not pundits) have sent a message that they are not completely comfortable. He has six weeks now to prove that he can pass the test and it will be good for the party to have that test. He is going to have to be more substantive and more specific."

"They ran a campaign here largely designed to run on national momentum to offset Hillary's advantage," a Texas Democrat wrote in an e-mail message. "It didn't work and even worse, I think they outspent her nearly 3 to 1... And, their momentum is now gone. This morning, Obama is now talking tactics, math, and sounding a lot like an insider. They have consistently been put in a position after surprise losses in big states of talking about how far behind they were and how they almost made it. You and I know that [is] amateurish to keep getting put in that trap. He now is in the tricky position of having to say, aggressively, "Let's look at that experience, Hillary.'"

A Democrat in Massachusetts said Obama needs to double down on substance to overcome Clinton's advantage on experience. "He's got money, he's got organization but there are deep doubts about him still. I could feel a bit of buyer's remorse creeping into this race in the last week. That's what happened last night. So now he has to prove gravitas as well as charm. McCain drips with gravitas."

"He has to hit Clinton hard for her past failures -- her refusal to accept compromise on health care that would have covered all children, leading to the loss of the Democratic Congress...," a Democrat who was aligned with one of the other candidates wrote. "He can hit her harder on the Iraq war, not only for not reading the NIE [National Intelligence Estimate] and voting for the war, but also for her opposition to setting a timetable for withdrawal. Raise the specter of whether she really will withdraw from Iraq. List all the different positions she's had in the past year, they are legion...Obama can shut this down by showing he can win a fight. That's how you define your superiority as a candidate."

Obama certainly sounded as if he is prepared to get tougher with Clinton. He told reporters on his campaign plane Wednesday morning that he intends to challenge Clinton's national security credentials by questioning her experience in the way she attacked his in the final days of the campaign. But some Democrats believe she will continue to have the upper hand if the nomination battle becomes one of experience versus inexperience.

"Experience vs. change never worked," one Democrat noted. "Experience vs. inexperience did work. Now Obama has to make it a fight between change and the status quo."

Obama also said that, if she continues to encourage the press to vet him, he would raise ethical questions about her. He said he doubted that she "will be better able to withstand Republican attacks" and intends to join that debate.

His campaign followed that up with a new demand for Clinton to release her tax returns and a conference call in which his advisers pressed reporters to dig into her record. Obama senior adviser David Axelrod described Clinton as a "habitual non-discloser."

Getting tough is part of the new equation. Whether Obama has an economic message to counter Clinton's represents another crucial test. In Ohio, Clinton connected with economically downscale voters, as she has in other states. Obama began his career as a community organizer in Chicago dealing with workers who had lost their jobs when the steel mills shut down. Why he has not been more effective at making connections with voters like them is a question he and his advisers must be thinking about as they look ahead to Pennsylvania.

The delegate balance may not have shifted dramatically with Tuesday's results, but the race itself did. Obama once again is faced with the question of how and whether he can defeat Clinton. Democrats will be watching closely to see how he responds.





If he can't rise to the occasion and kick her ass on assuring the voters on these crucial issues, then he doesn't deserve to be President anyways.


--------------------
:redpanda:
If I should die this very moment
I wouldn't fear
For I've never known completeness
Like being here
Wrapped in the warmth of you
Loving every breath of you

:heartpump: :bunnyhug: :yinyang:

:yinyang: :levitate: :earth: :levitate: :yinyang:


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Offlinelonestar2004
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Re: Hillary and Obama Neck and Neck so far... (0vs0%) Official OH/TX Primary results thread [Re: blackegg]
    #8106000 - 03/05/08 02:40 PM (13 years, 4 days ago)

Quote:

blackegg said:
I think you mean, "gunna"...
:rolleyes:





its gunna be gooooooood.


--------------------
America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama


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Offlinelonestar2004
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Re: Hillary and Obama Neck and Neck so far... (0vs0%) Official OH/TX Primary results thread [Re: fireworks_god]
    #8106014 - 03/05/08 02:43 PM (13 years, 4 days ago)

that was an interesting read.


--------------------
America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama


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Offlinefireworks_godS
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Re: Hillary and Obama Neck and Neck so far... (0vs0%) Official OH/TX Primary results thread [Re: lonestar2004]
    #8106030 - 03/05/08 02:47 PM (13 years, 4 days ago)

You know, I think you missed the memo and voted for the wrong candidate. Republicans are supporting Hillary now because she's doomed but she's well-funded and running agansit Obama. :smirk:

I think he's more than capable to rising to the occasion. By the sounds of it, she might consider ending the campaign later on for the Vice President spot, but I think it would make more sense for her to be a Senate majority leader. :shrug:


--------------------
:redpanda:
If I should die this very moment
I wouldn't fear
For I've never known completeness
Like being here
Wrapped in the warmth of you
Loving every breath of you

:heartpump: :bunnyhug: :yinyang:

:yinyang: :levitate: :earth: :levitate: :yinyang:


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OfflineMadtowntripper
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Re: Hillary and Obama Neck and Neck so far... (0vs0%) Official OH/TX Primary results thread [Re: fireworks_god]
    #8106039 - 03/05/08 02:49 PM (13 years, 4 days ago)

I may have Hillary read completely wrong, but do you honestly believe she'd accept the Veep slot?

Really?

I just cannot see her doing it...


--------------------
After one comes, through contact with it's administrators, no longer to cherish greatly the law as a remedy in abuses, then the bottle becomes a sovereign means of direct action.  If you cannot throw it at least you can always drink out of it.  - Ernest Hemingway

If it is life that you feel you are missing I can tell you where to find it.  In the law courts, in business, in government.  There is nothing occurring in the streets. Nothing but a dumbshow composed of the helpless and the impotent.    -Cormac MacCarthy

He who learns must suffer. And even in our sleep pain that cannot forget falls drop by drop upon the heart, and in our own despair, against our will, comes wisdom to us by the awful grace of God.  - Aeschylus


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Offlinefireworks_godS
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Re: Hillary and Obama Neck and Neck so far... (0vs0%) Official OH/TX Primary results thread [Re: Madtowntripper]
    #8106057 - 03/05/08 02:53 PM (13 years, 4 days ago)

I don't think it would make much sense for her to actually do so, but the statement did make it seem like it was a possibility. I think Senate majority leader would be much more practical and effective.


--------------------
:redpanda:
If I should die this very moment
I wouldn't fear
For I've never known completeness
Like being here
Wrapped in the warmth of you
Loving every breath of you

:heartpump: :bunnyhug: :yinyang:

:yinyang: :levitate: :earth: :levitate: :yinyang:


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Invisiblevonhumboldt
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Re: Hillary and Obama Neck and Neck so far... (0vs0%) Official OH/TX Primary results thread [Re: fireworks_god]
    #8106076 - 03/05/08 02:59 PM (13 years, 4 days ago)

Obama is poised to win most of the upcoming states and add to his delegate count. Clinton won yesterday (even though probably losing in the delegate count in Texas) because she went negative and he did not (even though he could easily). The fact remains that Clinton simply cannot win the nomination unless she pulls out some tricks that will ensure McCain the White House -- even if the super delegates suddenly switch over to Clinton. The numbers are not in her favor even if that appears to be a "weak argument." There is no way she wins 65%+ in all the upcoming primaries and caucuses.


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Offlinelonestar2004
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Re: Hillary and Obama Neck and Neck so far... (0vs0%) Official OH/TX Primary results thread [Re: vonhumboldt]
    #8106085 - 03/05/08 03:04 PM (13 years, 4 days ago)

"The fact remains that Clinton simply cannot win the nomination"

so u think thats her plan? Steal it?

I honestly have no idea anymore.


--------------------
America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama


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Invisiblevonhumboldt
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Re: Hillary and Obama Neck and Neck so far... (0vs0%) Official OH/TX Primary results thread [Re: lonestar2004]
    #8106148 - 03/05/08 03:27 PM (13 years, 4 days ago)

I think her plan is to force via lawsuit Michigan and Florida be seated (in her favor) and press super delegates to crown her -- despite losing in both popular vote and delegates awarded by way of primaries and caucuses. She plans on smearing Obama even further and try to get 65%+ in all of the remaining contests. I doubt this is possible for her to win such numbers, but she'll try regardless of how it will destroy the party and the voters' interest even if success in this arena is quite unlikely.

She's Machiavellian and only cares about the Clinton legacy and stranglehold over the executive branch. And of course, a Hillary Clinton White House will be a dual presidency. Bill Clinton will essentially be in his 3rd term which is scary. The found a loophole.


Edited by vonhumboldt (03/05/08 03:34 PM)


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General Interest >> Political Discussion

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