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Re: are we going to stop evolving? [Re: Mushmonkey]
    #3205822 -

For the MOST part, these things strike people well into life already. AIDS -- excepting parts of Africa where it's pandemic,

So you're saying, definitively, that humans no longer evolve, except when we do?  :tongue2:

Speciation occurs in isolated societies -- widespread and varied exchange of genes negates small mutations.

I think you need to catch up on current thinking; read up on Punctuated Equilibrium first proposted by Gould and Eldredge to start.

SARS.. not very dangerous honestly, not currently

ARE YOU KIDDING??? :whoa:

SARS has a 10% mortality rate and is highly contagious!

Alright...

Edited by Diploid (10/02/04 03:12 AM)

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Re: are we going to stop evolving? [Re: Viveka]
    #3205849 -

I didn't mean to make it sound like I thought organisms could control their evolution somehow, just that most evolution is driven by a need in the environment.

For example, there are trees in africa that have evolved thorns all over the trunk to keep animals from climbing up and eating their berries.  The giraffe, however, evolved its long neck so it would be able to easily eat the foliage on the tall trees in its environment.  I didn't do the research myself, you can thank the discovery channel for that fact....

regardless, I like the discussion this has generated :smile:

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Re: are we going to stop evolving? [Re: Turd]
    #3206066 -

Good question!

I think evolution itself evolved another step when it produced an organism (humans) which could controll its environment instead of be controlled by the environment. Humans will probably stop evolving biologically (if we haven't already), but it is not our body which makes us distinct from the other life on this planet! Our consciousness began to evlolve from the moment it came into being.

Think about this: humans today are really no more "intelligent" today than we were 10,000 years ago (much longer, maybe). Our brains have not increased in size during such a "short" timespan (on an evolutionary scale). Yet today we certainly "know" more than we did 10,000 years ago, which in many ways makes us appear more "intelligent". This is a direct sign of the evolution of human consciousness.

What's next?

That, I think, is the big question (as always). Because of the switch from biologic to consciousness evolution, we are at a MUCH higher risk of causing our own extinction than we are of going extinct due to external pressures. This will probably become a major issue over the next 100 years, and I think humanity as a whole has a choice they must make to SEE the damage and UNDERSTAND where it leads. If we fail in this task, our extinction as a species is a HIGH possibility. Our consciousness will go on evolving in either case, though. The possibilities are nearly endless at this point!

Here's a link to a thread I made a few weeks ago:
http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat...sb=5&o=&fpart=1

Posthumanism is one idea of "what's next" and it involves a transfer of our human consciousness into a machine :wink:


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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free.
But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.

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Re: are we going to stop evolving? [Re: Turd]
    #3206112 -

Evolution is a theory for our observed trait of change within organisms over many generations. Similar minor mutations would occur in the same species, which if more favourable for survival, based purely on probability, will out survive and out populate the non-mutated members. Plus a dramatic mutation could be neutralized by that species breeding with others without the mutation. Nothing dramatic, like extra limbs, especially over a single generation, but very slowly over time everything changes.

We can never be sure of current evolution, as it's always an after-the-fact observation of change. I feel we still have quite a lot of change to undergo in the future, but that will remain unknown until then (assuming the more evolved humans have a link back to us, the less evolved humans).

So until we become one being, with the genetic mutations and alterations completely unchangable, minor "evolution" will always occur after each generation, due completely to probability of survival. It isn't an action though, nor is it some external process, it's just a label on the changes occuring due to almost infinitie variables and over many many many years. Our observed human evolution, while not entirely physical now, appears (key word here) to be accelerating. Will it reach a climax - that would depend on the subjective observer :smile:

As for extinction - it's not as real of a possibilty as it may seem. Just worry about your own genetic survival and our race will continue, that is, if we want it to.


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Re: are we going to stop evolving? [Re: deff]
    #3206202 -

just gotta popp in and say again, changing never change :wink:
so, no? evolution is evolving? :wink:
word :P


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Disclaimer!?

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Re: are we going to stop evolving? [Re: Gomp]
    #3206371 -

Yes, infinite accelerating factors layered on top of one another to create a perceptual change in perceptually linear time transition.

Or something like that...

It's all relative afterall :smile:


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Re: are we going to stop evolving? [Re: deff]
    #3207085 -

seriously im curious, if evolution relies on constant randomized mutation, and only a small percentage of those random mutations are beneficial, then why arent there lots of fossilized 'failed mutants', ones whose mutations were not beneficial to survival?


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Everything I post is fiction.

Edited by Moonshoe (10/02/04 03:12 PM)

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Re: are we going to stop evolving? [Re: Moonshoe]
    #3207142 -

Because the mutations would be extremely minor mostly. If it somehow is beneficial, then it would only pose a minor advantage to survival usually, and thus the probability of survival only increases very slightly over many many generations. It's such a sloooow process, or rather, an observation of change over such a long time.

This is why we have evolved to have different eye colours, hair colours, ect...


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Re: are we going to stop evolving? [Re: trendal]
    #3207145 -

Our consciousness began to evlolve from the moment it came into being.

It's been suggested that the rise of consciousness in animals may have been initially sparked by psychedelics, including mushrooms. Some animals appear to have innate instincts to seek out psychedelics. This suggests all kinds of ideas about coevolution.

Also, consider the evolution of ants.  Some species have as few as only 10,000 neurons in their brain; even the more complex species have only 100,000.  Each individual seems to act like an automaton with no apparent intent or consciousness, but a hive of several hundred thousand to millions of ants somehow plan and coordinate well enough to build large underground nests, respond efficiently to attacks, actively hunt, and when the hive grows beyond some critical mass, half the colony splits off and goes out to found a new hive. 

How they manage to do this is still a mystery, but it's been suggested the gestalt of all the ants together somehow gives rise to a rudimentary consciousness.

Interesting stuff, eh?  :thumbup:

Read:
Animals and Psychedelics: The Natural World and the Instinct to Alter Consciousness
Giorgio Samorini
Park Street Press, 2002
ISBN 0 892819863

Great book.  There's a review at:

http://www.forteantimes.com/review/animalpsych.shtml


--------------------
Republican Values:

1) You can't get married to your spouse who is the same sex as you.
2) You can't have an abortion no matter how much you don't want a child.
3) You can't have a certain plant in your possession or you'll get locked up with a rapist and a murderer.

4) We need a smaller, less-intrusive government.

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Re: are we going to stop evolving? [Re: Moonshoe]
    #3207336 -

then why arent there lots of fossilized 'failed mutants',

Moonshoe,

You ask a very good question.  After all, if evolutionary theory is correct, there should be a continuum of species rather than discrete species in the fossil record. So you're asking where all the transitional fossils that demonstrate a smooth, continuous transition from prior species to current ones are.

That fossils form at all is a minor miracle. Think about what happens to the typical dead animal. First it's torn apart by scavengers, then decomposition sets in which if left unchecked will consume even the bones after a while, next UV exposure bleaches what's left, then rain erodes it further, and the constant churn of soil by plant roots finally removes all traces of the animal's existence. People take advantage of this when they murder someone and dump the body in a forest. Most of the time, the body is never found, even when the police know where to look.

In the ocean, conditions are even more unfavorable for fossil formation.

My point is that for an animal to be preserved in the fossil record it must die in a place where it will be undisturbed for a very long time; couple that with the requirement for very specific and unique conditions and the likelihood that any given animal will fossilize is tiny.  That we have fossils at all is testament to the enormous quantity and diversity of species in the history of our planet. Given how unlikely it is for any given fossil to form, it's not surprising that we haven't yet found a continuum of species.

But we're making progress. Every year more and more transitional fossils are found to fill in the gaps. One of the most famous, Archaeopteryx, is very strong evidence supporting the idea that birds evolved directly from dinosaurs. Comparative anatomy shows it has many of the skeletal features of extinct terrasaurs, but the Swiss cheese internal bone structure which makes modern bird skeletons so strong and lightweight. More amazing is that Archaeopteryx had both teeth AND feathers.

Even with the discovery of Archaeopteryx there are still gaps in the fossil record, but then more recently a team of scientists working in the Spanish Pyrenees uncovered the fossilized remains of a bird hatchling dating to the Lower Cretaceous, approximately 130 million years ago. The researchers believe the bird hatchling falls between the very early Archaeopteryx (approximately 150 million years old) and the more modern fossil birds Hersperonis and Ichthyornis, both of which are ~85 million years old.

Here's another example. One of the things I do for fun when I'm not reading the Shroomery is scuba diving in caves. This is a great place to see evolution at work. Inside these caves are such critters as catfish and crayfish (like little lobsters). These animals are albino (they have no pigmentation), and they're blind (they have eyes, but they're covered over by skin and scales). This is because they were once species living outside, but over time found a niche inside the perpetual darkness of the caves where neither eyes nor pigmentation were of any benefit. The fossil record suggests that they slowly evolved away eyes and pigments and gained other traits more useful for living in the dark.

Here's a picture of one I found while diving in a cave in north central Florida recently:



Amazing, eh? Notice the lack of eyes and the total lack of pigmentation. Non-cave dwelling crayfish are typically brownish like lobsters... and they have eyes. :thumbup:

Edited by Diploid (10/04/04 07:18 AM)

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Re: are we going to stop evolving? [Re: Diploid]
    #3207477 -

...a hive of several hundred thousand to millions of ants somehow plan and coordinate well enough to build large underground nests...

This is a little off topic...but your statement is a good point as to why I disagree with the notion of man-made things not being "natural". We are certainly NOT the only species on this planet which alters its environment to suit its needs. Beavers build dams in rivers. Termites build structures many millions of times their own size. Many animals build nests.


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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free.
But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.

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Re: are we going to stop evolving? [Re: Turd]
    #3207497 -

This is the calm before the evolutionary storm. We're gonna start evolving all over the damn place once we really commit ourselves to genetic engineering.


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Re: are we going to stop evolving? [Re: chunder]
    #3207891 -

We're gonna start evolving all over the damn place once we really commit ourselves to genetic engineering.

Except it wouldn't appear that way to us because evolution happens over generations. It's not like we can stick engineered zygotes into growth accelerators and pop out grown, fully expressed orgasisms.

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Re: are we going to stop evolving? [Re: Diploid]
    #3207943 -

"Within 10 years we will be able to accurately predict weather patterns over a year in advance using computer models,

Where in the world did you hear that? Your statement is way off the mark. The more we refine our mathematical models of the weather, the more we realize that accurate long term prediction is asymptotic!!! You're making stuff up"

Computer models are already quite good and have great success with forcast predictions. I say this as an IT professional not as a liar who makes shit up. I would like to see Swami comment on this as his experience in computing outstrips mine.

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Re: are we going to stop evolving? [Re: Huehuecoyotl]
    #3207995 -

This isn't about computing, it's about physics.

Edit:

Stop getting all defensive and listen to what I'm saying.

You're suggesting that "we will be able to accurately predict weather patterns over a year in advance using computer models". While I agree with you that our current models are improving, there's an asymptotic limit beyond which no currently-available understanding of fluid dynamics can predict regardless of how much computing power you throw at the problem.

This is analogous to saying that given the starting position of a molecule of water in a turbulent river, you can predict its position indefinitely into the future.

In reality, you can predict very, very accurately its position one second from now, but 10 seconds from now, significant errors creep into your prediction, and 10 minutes from now, when the molecule has traveled miles down rapids, you won't have the slightest idea where the molecule will be other than inside the banks of the river somewhere.

No amount of computing or refinement of prediction models can change this.

Sorry for the off-topic post.


--------------------
Republican Values:

1) You can't get married to your spouse who is the same sex as you.
2) You can't have an abortion no matter how much you don't want a child.
3) You can't have a certain plant in your possession or you'll get locked up with a rapist and a murderer.

4) We need a smaller, less-intrusive government.

Edited by Diploid (10/02/04 08:39 PM)

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Re: are we going to stop evolving? [Re: Diploid]
    #3208942 -

"That fossils form at all is a minor miracle. Think about what happens to the typical dead animal. First it's torn apart by scavengers, then decomposition sets in which if left unchecked will consume even the bones after a while, next UV exposure bleaches what's left, then rain erodes it further, and the constant churn of soil by plant roots finally removes all traces of the animal's existence"

ok i think i know what your saying. If a mutation was not conducive to survival, chances are that mutation would only be present in a very few specimens (as only a few would live to reproduce) therefore the chances of finding fossilized remains of that unique failure would be very very small.

Whereas a succesfull mutation (eventually forming an effective species) would be present in thousands of specimens, meaning the chances of finding a fossilized specimen would be far higher.

Good answer thanks


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Everything I post is fiction.

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Re: are we going to stop evolving? [Re: Turd]
    #3209132 -

Deff and diploid did a good job of summing up the scientific communities feelings about evolution.

We may not be evolving at such as fast physically than we have at some times, but we could have periods of time during with evolution occurs fairly quickly, I believe it?s called the theory of punctuated equilibrium but can?t be positive. We are fairly well suited for our environment as it is, we do tend to be messy and cruel to the environment but we are at the top of the food chain and have a decent civilization. Most of the evolution that?s taken place in the last few thousand years is social evolution, we?ve gone from pharaohs and kings to authoritarian rulers, to communists, to democracy, republics, etc. We are moving at a very fast pace in that respect, we have a type of communal knowledge, every generation is standing on the shoulders of every generation behind it, building upon their advances, think of how much new technology has been introduced in the last 100 years, even the stuff produced in the last 10 years has dramatically altered our society, so unless we are presented with a stimulus for pronounced genetic change, is it logical to say that we will continue to evolve far more quickly socially than any other way? I?d guess so.


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No .sig for me, I'm trying to quit.

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Re: are we going to stop evolving? [Re: Turd]
    #3212373 -

"No amount of computing or refinement of prediction models can change this."

The Earth Simulator has already made very accurate predictions of atmospheric conditions and the mechanisms that drive these changes. To think that this precision will not improve exponentially with the increase of computing power is very naive. Once again I maintain that all evolutionary progress will only be made by our level of technology.

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Re: are we going to stop evolving? [Re: Huehuecoyotl]
    #3212495 -

Quote:
To think that this precision will not improve exponentially with the increase of computing power is very naive.




While computing power will certainly continue to increase along an exponential curve, such things as predicting the weather far into the future will always proceed along a superior curve. We cannot reasonably expect to catch up using any current or even any distantly-imagined technologies. A fundamental technological revolution in the disciplines of Fluid Dynamics, Computing, and Chaos Theory would be required. Even then, I'd be pessimistic.

Mathematics, physics, Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle, and even the Butterfly Effect aside, would you say, using just your intuition, that we stand the slightest chance of ever being able to precisely predict the position of a molecule of water a mile downstream a turbulent river??

The river problem and the weather are examples of diverging systems, also known as Chaotic Systems. It was study of the weather that first lead to what today is called Chaos Theory. There is no known way to make predictions far into the future of such systems. By their very nature, the farther into the future you attempt to compute a prediction, the larger the errors that creep into the solutions. These errors accumulate and amplify with each subsequent iteration of the algorithm rendering the data fuzzier and fuzzier each time. Eventually, as the signal to noise ratio approaches zero, the information from the model approaches useless. In other words, as the model's predictions depart from the present toward the future, the size of the data set and the amount of computing power required to crunch the data approach infinity very quickly. No known or foreseeable computational strategy can avoid this combinatorial explosion!

-No amount of computing power can make an out-of-focus image sharp and true to the original.
-No known method can violate the rules of information entropy.
-No amount of computing power can accurately predict the behavior of a Chaotic System like the weather far into the future.
-All of these for much the same reason.

If we somehow, by what today seems like magic, eventually learn to make accurate weather predictions years into the future, it will be with concepts that humans have not yet even imagined, let alone implemented in a computer.

I always stand ready to be corrected when I'm wrong, but I usually know what I'm talking about.

Google Edward Lorenz, a brilliant research meteorologist from MIT, if you want to know more.


--------------------
Republican Values:

1) You can't get married to your spouse who is the same sex as you.
2) You can't have an abortion no matter how much you don't want a child.
3) You can't have a certain plant in your possession or you'll get locked up with a rapist and a murderer.

4) We need a smaller, less-intrusive government.

Edited by Diploid (10/04/04 06:30 AM)

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Re: are we going to stop evolving? [Re: Huehuecoyotl]
    #3212709 -

Alright, you seem to be a computer geek - a kindred spirit. So I'm going out of my way here. I wrote this program just for you. It will build and run as-is on the MS development tools. Cook as needed if you're on some other platform. It demonstrates divergence and why no amount of computing power will ever make much headway against the problem the program is trying to solve.

Study it.

Notice how the first few itterations whiz by super fast, but as the hard rules of divergence set in, the itterations slow. Each itteration takes twice as long as the previous one. That means that (2^itteration) passes through the for loop are required.

By the 10th itteration, the for loop cycles 1,024 times.

By the 100th itteration, the for loop cycles 1,267,650,600,228,229,401,496,703,205,376 times.

By the 1000th itteration, the for loop cycles so many times that the number to express it is outside the range of my calculator's scientific notation mode. The combined power of all the computers on Earth would take longer than the age of the universe to reach just 1000 itterations.

The problem presented here demonstrates divergence, a property of most (all?) Chaotic Systems including the weather.

Here you go:

Code:
// Diploid


#include <stdio.h>

#define STARTING_VALUE 1

void main(void);
void diverge(void);

void main(void){
unsigned int Count = 1;

while(1){
diverge();
printf("\n%d: Diverging...", Count++);
}
}


void diverge(void){
// FYI: __int 64 is an eight byte unsinged integer.
static __int64 ReallyBigNumber = STARTING_VALUE;
__int64 Index = 0;

for( ; Index < ReallyBigNumber; Index ++);
ReallyBigNumber *= (__int64)2;
}




Edit: the indents don't come out right in the thread, but it's a simple enough program to figure out without them.

Edit: nevermind, I found the code tag.


--------------------
Republican Values:

1) You can't get married to your spouse who is the same sex as you.
2) You can't have an abortion no matter how much you don't want a child.
3) You can't have a certain plant in your possession or you'll get locked up with a rapist and a murderer.

4) We need a smaller, less-intrusive government.

Edited by Diploid (10/04/04 08:02 AM)

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