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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: shivas.wisdom]
    #27742935 -

shivas.wisdom said:
The article chopstick provided stated: "Up to 14,000 civilians in the Donetsk and Lugansk republics have been killed since 2014, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Saturday." But sure, perhaps that was a mistake. Looking at his speech, the full quote is: "Now listen to this: the Donbass people are NOT stray dogs! Yet, 13,000-14,000 of them have been killed there over years."

It still seems like he's misrepresenting the total deaths (including those of the UAF) as if they were solely those of the Donbass people.


I had a Russian listen to it, who said Putin said "people", not "of them".  However, from the context I will acknowledge that "people" could well have meant the Donbass people.

shivas.wisdom said:
Either way, you still haven't provided a source for his claim that isn't based on a guessed uncertainty factor numbering in the thousands, so why aren't you chanting 'source or make believe' like you normally do?


Given that the UN said "civilian deaths are being underestimated" and the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights said "OHCHR believes that the actual figures are considerably higher" and the UN said it is "only releasing confirmed death totals", and there are many "improvised grave sites" "that could be verified once the OHCHR can get in there", but UN officials "can't travel to much of Ukraine, 'it has been very difficult to get information from some locations'", I'd say the actual death count is logically much more than what's been officially confirmed.

As I said before, "if the DPR and LPR volunteer groups are considered civilians (which they are to the Russians I spoke with, as they are just civilians who chose to fight back), then the number would be 3400 (non fighting civilians) + 5800 (armed civilians) + 2000 (NATO's low estimate since the start of the 2022 conflict) = 11,200 + whatever hasn't been counted yet.

A 13,000 - 14,000 guess seems pretty reasonable, does it not?


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.

Edited by Falcon91Wolvrn03 (04/19/22 11:32 PM)

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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #27742945 -

Wait, so are they civilians fighting back or legitimate military targets? It's so hard to keep track these days...

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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: koods]
    #27742969 -

Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:
There are now hundreds of taped interviews from civilian witnesses.  It appears the major social networks are taking these down, but you can find them on Telegram.


koods said:
Link or gtfo


First, you argued in favor of censorship of mainstream social media.  Then, when the content gets censored, you cry that you want me to post it for you because it's been censored.

:youseethisshit:


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.

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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: ballsalsa]
    #27742970 -

ballsalsa said:
Wait, so are they civilians fighting back or legitimate military targets? It's so hard to keep track these days...


Who said they can't they be both?


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.

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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03] * 1
    #27743032 -

Putin was saying this ten days into the invasion. Your NATO estimate is over the entire time since Russia invaded.

The opinion of some random Russian you spoke to doesn't hold more weight than the civilian/fighter distinctions of the DPR and LPR themselves.

Even if we take your assumption fully, the reported total by the DPR and LPR was ~7042 immediately before the invasion. That's both civilians and fighters (some of the civilians included in the 3393 number are from other areas of Ukraine).

The claim that another unverifiable 6000-7000 deaths exist in order to validate Putin’s claim is just make believe on your part. There's nothing to support it other than a hope and a wish that Putin would never lie. Maybe it's right, but by your own standards it's just make believe right now.

The only source that has been provided, and matches his numbers, is the entire death toll across Ukraine pre-invasion. It's far more reasonable to assume that Putin is misrepresenting this known number, then it is to assume that Putin made a guess (at a time when all relevant entities are saying any reasonable guess is currently impossible) that just happens to be the same number.

And what was the result? People like chopstick clamouring about how the Ukrainian state has killed 14,000 civilians since 2014 as one of the main justifications for this war. I'm still open to seeing the sources Putin used (Why wouldn't he want to make this information public??? Why can't you find it???) - until then, this smells more of disinformation than an educated guess to me.


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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #27743303 -

Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:
ballsalsa said:
Wait, so are they civilians fighting back or legitimate military targets? It's so hard to keep track these days...


Who said they can't they be both?


If they are legitimate military targets, what is Russia's justification for "liberating and defending" them? Why hasn't Putin invaded Myanmar yet? Those Buddhists have serious nazi tendencies. Where was Putin when everyone was worried about Darfur? Saudi Arabia has an autocratic regime that abuses the fuck out it's civilians. Why hasn't Putin liberated them yet?

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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: ballsalsa] * 1
    #27743350 -

I think it’s clear that even a nation as strong (relative to most nations) as Russia is, they’re nowhere near the level where they can project military power based on little more than “defending/liberating the innocents.” The US doesn’t even do that.

There’s an argument to be made about whether Russian backed proxy forces in Ukraine are better than Western backed proxy forces, but let’s not be so naive as to think that either one’s claim about liberating the populace from the forces of evil have any merit whatsoever. I understand the tendency to lean against the domestic propaganda effort by deciding that, to some significant degree, we are being misled about the Russian effort in Ukraine. It’s important to be able to disseminate a propaganda campaign waged by your own government, but that also doesn’t mean you just start buying into the opposition’s propaganda campaign wholesale.

Maybe, MAYBE, I could see writing off Russia doing bad stuff with an “ends justify the means” justification because of some ideological commitment that you don’t want threatened, but what’s the ideology at stake here? It’s two fascist groups fighting over the bread basket of Europe.


--------------------

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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: The Ecstatic] * 1
    #27743420 -

It bears repeating: no war but the class war.


--------------------

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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: shivas.wisdom]
    #27743437 -

shivas.wisdom said:
Putin was saying this ten days into the invasion. Your NATO estimate is over the entire time since Russia invaded.


My estimate was since Maidan.  That was Putin's estimate as well (did you hear him say otherwise?)

shivas.wisdom said:
The opinion of some random Russian you spoke to doesn't hold more weight than the civilian/fighter distinctions of the DPR and LPR themselves.


I made the distinction between civilians and armed civilians.

shivas.wisdom said:
Even if we take your assumption fully, the reported total by the DPR and LPR was ~7042 immediately before the invasion. That's both civilians and fighters (some of the civilians included in the 3393 number are from other areas of Ukraine).

The claim that another unverifiable 6000-7000 deaths exist in order to validate Putin’s claim is just make believe on your part. There's nothing to support it other than a hope and a wish that Putin would never lie. Maybe it's right, but by your own standards it's just make believe right now.


My numbers come from Wikipedia, whom even the cofounder said has been taken over by the establishment.  That shows 3393 civilians killed, plus 5,795 combat volunteers, who are also civilians.  And then there's the UN's "underestimated" number of 2000 civilians killed.  As I said, that's about 11,200.  That's just 1800 short of Putin's estimate, not 6,000-7,000, and Putin is almost certainly not using the UN's underestimated number.  He did give a range of about 1000 people because of course we both know there are uncertainties.

shivas.wisdom said:
The only source that has been provided, and matches his numbers, is the entire death toll across Ukraine pre-invasion. It's far more reasonable to assume that Putin is misrepresenting this known number, then it is to assume that Putin made a guess (at a time when all relevant entities are saying any reasonable guess is currently impossible) that just happens to be the same number.


What significant deaths has there been across all of Ukraine?  The fighting has been in Donbas.

shivas.wisdom said:
And what was the result? People like chopstick clamouring about how the Ukrainian state has killed 14,000 civilians since 2014 as one of the main justifications for this war.


Everyone keeps using one thing as the "main" justification for war (it's the Nazis, it's whatever).  There are a lot of main reasons, especially Russia's security.

shivas.wisdom said:
I'm still open to seeing the sources Putin used (Why wouldn't he want to make this information public??? Why can't you find it???) - until then, this smells more of disinformation than an educated guess to me.


So what is your estimate for the number of unaccounted deaths that the UN described above?  Putin's was 1800-2800, which isn't unreasonable given the current estimate is currently 23,944+ civilians killed.

I think the delta is that you refuse to call civilian volunteers civilians.


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.

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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: ballsalsa]
    #27743449 -

ballsalsa said:
If they are legitimate military targets, what is Russia's justification for "liberating and defending" them?


Once again, there were MANY reasons for the invasion, including Russia's security.

ballsalsa said:
Why hasn't Putin invaded Myanmar yet? Those Buddhists have serious nazi tendencies.


If you still don't believe the Nazi problem in Ukraine is more serious than anywhere else after all the discussion on it, you've got your head in the sand.

Here's a documentary that came out 5 years ago.  It shows a German team who was in Ukraine during Maidan and then in Donbas afterwards.  It's a long watch, and not for those who want to make believe Nazism isn't a problem, but it's another solid piece of data showing that it is indeed a very serous problem in Ukraine.  This is a long video, so break out the popcorn and soda.  But it's another piece of evidence that shows beyond a doubt that Nazism was a problem in Ukraine well before the current conflict.



ballsalsa said:
Where was Putin when everyone was worried about Darfur? Saudi Arabia has an autocratic regime that abuses the fuck out it's civilians. Why hasn't Putin liberated them yet?


Because that's not on Russia's border, and doesn't include a lot of ethnic Russians.


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.

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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #27743451 -

I have no problem taking the fighter/civilian distinction of the people fighting at face value. My last response literally assumes everyone, both fighter and civilian, as civilian.

Putin made his statement on March 5th - so at best he is referring from Maidan until 05/03/22. The NATO and UN estimates you refer to are from 24/02/22-19/04/22. They are referring to entirely different dates.

Furthermore, if you go to the 'death by regions' section, the DPR and LPR provide regional casualty reports. This number differs from the 'total casualties' section, and the most favourable assumption is that the difference is from UAF-held areas of east Ukraine. Considering these deaths were likely caused by attacking separatists, including them in the death toll caused by the Ukrainian state is misleading at best.

And I refer to the main reason, because that's literally what chopstick believed, because Putin’s claim is an example of effective disinformation in action. Chopstick is the one who brought us this claim of Putin’s as justification for their belief.

Chopstick said: "And you could say, well, Russia invaded so it's still their fault that these people are dying even if Ukraine is using these deplorable tactics. And on that point I would agree if it weren't for one thing - the fact that Ukraine has been waging a war of aggression on Donbass for the past 8 years and has already killed some 15,000 of their own nation's citizens."


--------------------

Edited by shivas.wisdom (04/20/22 11:08 AM)

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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: The Ecstatic] * 1
    #27743457 -

The Ecstatic said:
what’s the ideology at stake here? It’s two fascist groups fighting over the bread basket of Europe.


Keep in mind, Russia wasn't asking for any new territory.  They wanted recognition of Crimea, which has been Russian since 2014 by will of 95% of the Crimean people, and the independence of Donbas, since Ukraine had continued to threaten the people there.

Since Ukraine chose to fight, I don't know what's currently on the negotiating table.  Last I heard, Crimea was still the sticking point, as the US, er I mean Ukraine, doesn't want to give up on it.  We've been trying too hard to take it over for too long now to let it go.


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.

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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: shivas.wisdom]
    #27743476 -

shivas.wisdom said:
I have no problem taking the fighter/civilian distinction of the people fighting at face value. My last response literally assumes everyone, both fighter and civilian, as civilian.

Putin made his statement on March 5th - so at best he is referring from Maidan until 05/03/22. The NATO and UN estimates you refer to are from 24/02/22-19/04/22. They are referring to entirely different dates.


Ok, Putin was estimating deaths through 5 Mar, while the UN estimate was printed on 2 Apr (not 22 Apr), a difference of four weeks.  Given the current civilian death estimate is about 24,000 as of 12 Apr, the 2,000 estimate isn't that unreasonable.

shivas.wisdom said:
Furthermore, if you go to the 'death by regions' section, the DPR and LPR provide regional casualty reports. This number differs from the 'total casualties' section, and the most favourable assumption is that the difference is from UAF-held areas of east Ukraine.


Not it doesn't.  It adds up exactly.


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.

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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #27743492 -

Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:
The Ecstatic said:
what’s the ideology at stake here? It’s two fascist groups fighting over the bread basket of Europe.


Keep in mind, Russia wasn't asking for any new territory.  They wanted recognition of Crimea, which has been Russian since 2014 by will of 95% of the Crimean people, and the independence of Donbas, since Ukraine had continued to threaten the people there.

Since Ukraine chose to fight, I don't know what's currently on the negotiating table.  Last I heard, Crimea was still the sticking point, as the US, er I mean Ukraine, doesn't want to give up on it.  We've been trying too hard to take it over for too long now to let it go.


Ok but territorial disputes between two imperial capitalist powers doesn’t change my point, which is that there is no ideological struggle here. It’s two buzzards fighting over carrion.


--------------------

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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #27743510 -

Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:
Ok, Putin was estimating deaths through 5 Mar, while the UN estimate was printed on 2 Apr (not 22 Apr), a difference of four weeks.  Given the current civilian death estimate is about 24,000 as of 12 Apr, the 2,000 estimate isn't that unreasonable.

Not it doesn't.  It adds up exactly.


Then Putin, like the cbc article, should be clear that these are estimates. Instead, Putin made a speech about packs of dogs killing people and how the west is ignoring these deaths and that's why he needs to invade - and, since it was effective disinformation, people like chopstick saw it as justification for war against a genocidal state instead of a very tenuous estimate.

It adds up? Prove it, show the math here. I've shown my math on these numbers in multiple posts prior, and the regional deaths of DPR + LPR don't add up to the total fighter + civilian deaths. I also notice you linked to the section about post-invasion casualties, but we are talking about March 5th at the latest. Putin said "over years" not 'in the coming weeks'. You can't validate his statement justifying the invasion by using the results of that invasion - Putin can't see into the future - especially considering a significant portion of the post-invasion deaths are the result of Russian, rather than solely Ukrainian, military action.


--------------------

Edited by shivas.wisdom (04/20/22 11:55 AM)

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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: shivas.wisdom] * 1
    #27743545 -

shivas.wisdom said:
Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:
Ok, Putin was estimating deaths through 5 Mar, while the UN estimate was printed on 2 Apr (not 22 Apr), a difference of four weeks.  Given the current civilian death estimate is about 24,000 as of 12 Apr, the 2,000 estimate isn't that unreasonable.

Not it doesn't.  It adds up exactly.


Then Putin, like the cbc article, should be clear that these are estimates. Instead, Putin made a speech about packs of dogs killing people and how the west is ignoring these deaths and that's why he needs to invade - and, since it was effective disinformation, people like chopstick saw it as justification for war against a genocidal state instead of a very tenuous estimate.

It adds up? Prove it, show the math here. I've shown my math on these numbers in multiple posts prior, and the regional deaths of DPR  LPR don't add up to the total fighter  civilian deaths. I also notice you linked to the section about post-invasion casualties, but we are talking about March 5th at the latest. Putin said "over years" not 'in the coming weeks'. You can't validate his statement justifying the invasion by using the results of that invasion. Putin can't see into the future.


You're arguing semantics over what the exact numbers are when it is a verifiable fact that Ukrainian forces went on killing spree after killing spree all over Eastern Ukraine as soon as they rose to power. Even before that they were killing people in Odessa and in Kiev. I mean for God's sake they burned 50 people alive in the Odessa Trade Union building and shot dozens more in that same incident. They are insane, hateful, violent nutbags.

I remember reading a report from a US congressman (I can't remember his name) in 2014. He was complaining that as of the end of 2014 Ukraine had already killed some 5,000 civilians. That is already more than the numbers stated on Wikipedia, which are quite frankly severely understated on all counts, including the total number of killed on the side of the Ukrainian military and DPR forces. Back then there were fierce battles where thousands died in a matter of days. But it would seem that both sides had the agenda of "underestimating" their own losses.

We might never know the exact number of civilians killed, but I'm willing to bet it is close to the original 14,000.

Even if the number was less, I wouldn't change my views. The brutality of the Ukrainian regime has been proven time and time again. And it is an undeniable fact that this brutality was directly enabled by the US State Department, whom installed them into power. Ultimately the Ukrainian neo-nazi's and the members of the Obama admin. brought war to the doorstep of Donetsk and Luhansk. They all should be held accountable, given the totally unnecessary and avoidable nature of this conflict, which never would have happened without the direct US support for the neo-nazi movement in Ukraine and their subsequent artificial elevation to power.

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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: chopstick]
    #27743586 -

Where is your evidence that the U.S. State Department installed them into power?  From what I can tell, this is little more than a conspiracy theory.


--------------------
Censoring opposing views since 2014.



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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Enlil]
    #27743620 -

Enlil said:
Where is your evidence that the U.S. State Department installed them into power?  From what I can tell, this is little more than a conspiracy theory.


Yeah.. I'm not gonna waste my time bringing up all the shit that happened during the 2014 Maidan square. Fact is, the US-backed regime change project in Ukraine was one of the most blatant and obvious regime change ops in history.

But you can believe what you like. :lol:

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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: shivas.wisdom]
    #27743622 -

shivas.wisdom said:
Putin, like the cbc article, should be clear that these are estimates. Instead, Putin made a speech about packs of dogs killing people and how the west is ignoring these deaths


13,000 - 14,000 implies it's an estimate, and as I've explained above, it's not an unreasonable one.  And yes, the West has been ignoring these deaths.

shivas.wisdom said:
It adds up? Prove it, show the math here.


Ok, here's the Wikipedia table:

Area                    Fatalities                Time period
Chernihiv Oblast 350–400  killed      24 February – 29 March 2022
Kharkiv Oblast    323–500+ killed      24 February – 25 March 2022
Kramatorsk        57 killed                  8 April 2022
Kyiv Oblast        1,311 killed            24 February – 31 March 2022
Luhansk Oblast  400 killed              24 February – 12 April 2022
Mariupol              21,000+ killed        24 February – 12 April 2022
Mykolaiv Oblast  176 killed              24 February – 4 April 2022
Sumy Oblast      100+ killed            24 February – 4 April 2022

TOTAL            23,717–23,944+ killed 24 February – 12 April 2022

On the low end, 350+323+57+1,311+400+21,000+176+100 = 23,717
On the high end, 400+500+57+1,311+400+21,000+176+100 = 23,944

It's an EXACT match.

shivas.wisdom said:
I also notice you linked to the section about post-invasion casualties


Again, that was to show that Putin's estimate of ~4000 people killed in the first two weeks wasn't unreasonable given ~24,000 were killed in the first 6 weeks

shivas.wisdom said:
...a significant portion of the post-invasion deaths are the result of Russian, rather than solely Ukrainian, military action.


Watch the war videos that are being posted and you'll hear witnesses say it's AZOV killing civilians, or holding them hostage as human shields.

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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Enlil]
    #27743633 -

Enlil said:
Where is your evidence that the U.S. State Department installed them into power?  From what I can tell, this is little more than a conspiracy theory.


Did you miss this post?


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.

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