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OfflineGazzBut
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More Climate Predictions
    #3701339 - 01/30/05 07:40 AM (12 years, 3 months ago)

Link

Is it irresponsible of governments not to act immediately in the light of such research?

Even if they are not convinced by the validity of the reports can they really afford to take the risk?

So what if it turns out we act unnecessarily and the reasearch turns out to be flawed? The consequences of not acting and the research turning out to be accurate are far more dangerous.


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InvisibleGijith
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Re: More Climate Predictions [Re: GazzBut]
    #3701828 - 01/30/05 11:53 AM (12 years, 3 months ago)

The study (and the little press clipping interpreting it) seems a little exaggerated IMO. I've only met one doc who works with the WWF. He seemed a bit more calm and logical on the subject than the two researches quoted here.

I haven't read the research (though I'm sure there's gonna be lots of talk about it at my department this week), so I can't say anything about their numbers. But I think it's unwise for these brits to make statements like "if we don't act immediately the Arctic will soon become unrecognizable" and "Polar bears will be consigned to history, something that our grandchildren can only read about in books." I know lots of people who feel very strongly about global climate changes. But, in my experience, the more respectable ones are those who don't make such definitive statements.

You can say the Earth is warming. You can say CO2 levels are rising. You can say the Earth's temp is rising at the fastest rate it has since the Pleistocene. But at this point, you still can't say for sure what all these things will lead to.

Don't get wrong. I still and support lots more funding for this research. Always will. I just wish the actual researchers would let media and Hollywood make the scary statements.


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what's with neocons and the word 'ilk'?


Edited by Gijith (01/30/05 12:01 PM)


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OfflineCatalysis
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Re: More Climate Predictions [Re: GazzBut]
    #3703236 - 01/30/05 07:26 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

One thing about this article is that i don't think it was ever published in a scientific journal. It looks like it was just written as a submission to this "avoiding dangerous climate change" conference which may or may not be slightly biased.

I don't know of any reputable journals that would publish " Polar bears will be consigned to history, something that our grandchildren can only read about in books".

Im not claiming to debunk the paper, im just saying that global warming is an issue that is infamous for its shady sources and project funding.


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OfflinePhluck
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Re: More Climate Predictions [Re: Catalysis]
    #3704063 - 01/30/05 09:53 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

I have heard about biased studies, but nothing about suspicious funding, got any sources?


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InvisibleGijith
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Re: More Climate Predictions [Re: GazzBut]
    #3704154 - 01/30/05 10:18 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

Just to note: A rare decent global warming thread is active in Science and Tech right now.


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what's with neocons and the word 'ilk'?


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OfflineGazzBut
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Re: More Climate Predictions [Re: Catalysis]
    #3705883 - 01/31/05 03:53 AM (12 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

I don't know of any reputable journals that would publish " Polar bears will be consigned to history, something that our grandchildren can only read about in books".





The point is if its true why shouldnt they publish it? Note, im not saying they are right!




But anyway the main question I asked can government afford to ignore research such as this? Is it more prudent to act on this research and the research be proven wrong or to ignore the research only for it be proven right?

Edit: on rereading the article it seems the polar bear comment was made as part of an interview not as part of the actual paper!


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Edited by GazzBut (01/31/05 03:57 AM)


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Offlinebutterflydawn
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Re: More Climate Predictions [Re: GazzBut]
    #3707114 - 01/31/05 12:51 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

2026 is a good prediction imo.
one more thing,do not wait something to be done by governments.
they are the reason of that situation
fuckers!


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OfflineSeussA
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Re: More Climate Predictions [Re: GazzBut]
    #3707172 - 01/31/05 01:11 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

Part of the problem with the humans causing global warming theory is just that, it is a theory. Nobody has proven that humans have had any impact what-so-ever on the temperature of the planet. We have been able to show that there is a history of hot and cold climate cycles that occur approximately every 10,000 years. We have also been able to show that we are approaching the rise of one of the hot cycles. What everybody is calling global warming could simply be a natural cycle that our planet goes through.

The simple fact is that nobody knows for certain if we are dooming ourselves or not. Personally, I suspect that global warming is a real threat, but that it is being caused mostly by both natural cycles and being helped along by man-kinds pollution.

As far as governments not doing enough... what should they do? Unless everybody works together, it isn't going to matter... even one country not playing fair can ruin it for everybody. As a people, we cannot even stop killing each other over differences in opinion; I really do not see us able to stop polluting each others back yards.


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Offlinebutterflydawn
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Re: More Climate Predictions [Re: Seuss]
    #3707405 - 01/31/05 02:10 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

well,
you are simply wrong.
first of all i sugest you to read some on that subject,cause my english is not good to explain that subject to you.
but let me try,

there are some differences between natural climate changes and artifical climate changes.

firstly climate change nowadays is not caused by natural causes,mostly caused by humans and in a short time it changed so rapid.
secondly,based on researches,lotsa evidence found which shows humans can also change the climate.
and climate change that we are living,is not happening on some zones,but all around the world.

and this global warming is not caused by 4 main reasons which are accepted as criteria for natural climate change;

continental dragging,
volcanizmas,
sun patches and waving at sun energy,
and the changes at world's route
sorry for poor english.

just think twice,
who polutes soil,water,air...
who causes radioactive polution?
who drives car?

revenge of gaia is soon...
prepare yourself


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lucidal expansion


Edited by butterflydawn (01/31/05 02:51 PM)


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InvisibleGijith
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Re: More Climate Predictions [Re: butterflydawn]
    #3707750 - 01/31/05 03:55 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

I'll try to nip this.

Humans have the potential to change the world's climate. There's essentially no debate on that. But we can't say for sure that we have yet.

To say that today's climate change is not caused by natural causes is ludicrous. Even if humans have caused the Earth to warm, it hasn't been independent of the more common or 'natural' methods. The main reason the Earth has warmed over the last 18,000 years is because the Earth's eccentricity of orbit cycles every 100,000 years, allowing more radiation to hit the Earth. Based on some of the models, this process along with variations in the obliquity and precession of the Earth's axis, should have had a part in warming the Earth at least up to today (I say some because some researchers have proposed that there should have been another glacial advance 150 years ago... others say closer to 9,000 years ago).

The question is whether we've added to the natural changes. And obviously there's no proof we have (there most likely never will be). However, there are many signs that point to it. You're right in saying that the planet's temp is rising at a relatively fast rate. A faster rate than has been previously estimated based on Milankovitch cycles alone. In the last 18,000 years, we haven't had much plate movement (around a kilometer on most boundaries). We haven't had the changes in mountain belts that could cause isostasy to play a part in climate change. So that leaves two possible realistic culprits: 1) sun spot cycles 2) CO2 levels. We aren't at the stage yet where we're able to map out how sunspots affect our climate. However, we know what's been happening with CO2. It's risen. There's no question there. It's possible that some it has been due to volcanic activity or the vast changes in weather systems over the past 18,000. But most likely, it has also been assisted by deforestation and burning of fossil fuels. The deforestation side of it is particularly interesting to me because if you look at the ice core data, you can see flux in average CO2 levels based on periods of human expansion and increased fluxes in agriculture over the past 10,000 years. Weird stuff.

Still, given all this, we're not in a position to make honest definitive claims. We probably never will be. What we can do is get the message out. Let people know how these mechanisms work and what an acceleration in either global warming or global cooling could do to this planet. And try to press for more research and realistic solutions.

:cheers:


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what's with neocons and the word 'ilk'?


Edited by Gijith (02/02/05 10:46 AM)


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OfflineBanJankri
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Re: More Climate Predictions [Re: butterflydawn]
    #3708068 - 01/31/05 05:17 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

one of the problems with climate change is that scientists have different opinions on it and cannot provide exact data. but it is now generally agreed by the scientists and the states of the world(inc U.S) that climate change is a real problem. The greenhouse effect is something which occurs naturally,and has been a part of the history of the earth. but if you look at the studies made by IPCC, you will understand that the climate change that is occuring is actually because of humans. if you look at the temperature changes throughout history, and compare it with aftermath of the industrial revolution, you will see that the current changes in climate is unprecendented in history. with the means of production changing after the ind rev, you have ever more concentration of GHG in the atmosphere.

What is not certain is when and to what extent this will affect humanity. Even if there is no %100certainty regarding these issues, it would be simply dumb to wait longer for certain results. should we wait until all the effects in full force start takin place, and then start reducing the emissions. of course not. states, individuals, corporations have to take immediate measures to actually try to comabt the problem. if you look at the last decade, you will encounter climate problems causing the death of many individuals, with the hottest summers and all that.

there is no justification to the idea that states/people should adopt a wait and see approach. we have to act now, until its too late.

by the way, the kyoto protocol will enter into force in feb 2005, so thats good. it is not enough but it is a start. people have to learn their responsibility towards the environment and try as hard as they can to lobby for the U.S to join the protocol, which is the worlds largest emitter of GHG.


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Just let everything flow, just flow right to the center of everything. You gotta turn off your mind and relax, and then just float downstream...


Edited by BanJankri (01/31/05 05:19 PM)


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OfflineCatalysis
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Re: More Climate Predictions [Re: Seuss]
    #3709569 - 01/31/05 09:00 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

Suess is correct, we can theorize that global warming is a problem but it can never be proven statistically at this point. There have been far more rapid changes in climate than what has happened since the industrial age. The theory is sound but the evidence produced is shady and lacks credible analysis. I agree that pollution should be reduced but i think that scaring people with shady science is not the way to go.


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OfflineGazzBut
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Re: More Climate Predictions [Re: Seuss]
    #3712096 - 02/01/05 08:16 AM (12 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

As far as governments not doing enough... what should they do? Unless everybody works together, it isn't going to matter...




So its not worth trying to lead by example?


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OfflineSeussA
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Re: More Climate Predictions [Re: GazzBut]
    #3712218 - 02/01/05 09:56 AM (12 years, 3 months ago)

> So its not worth trying to lead by example?

That isn't what I was asking. What steps would you have the governments perform to correct this theoretical problem? (I'm not being sarcastic here... asking an honest question.)


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OfflineGazzBut
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Re: More Climate Predictions [Re: Seuss]
    #3712902 - 02/01/05 12:31 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

The steps that the theorists suggest....


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InvisibleSilversoul
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Re: More Climate Predictions [Re: GazzBut]
    #3712960 - 02/01/05 12:42 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

Which theorists?


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OfflineGazzBut
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Re: More Climate Predictions [Re: Silversoul]
    #3713064 - 02/01/05 01:04 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

From doucmentaries I have seen and reports I have read, within the climate research community there is a large school of thought that believes human induced climate change is indeed real. To call these people merely theorists does them a great disservice as their is alot of hard science behind their "theories". These people would be able to give information to governments that would enable them to act in the most effective way...if their theories are correct.


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InvisibleSilversoul
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Re: More Climate Predictions [Re: GazzBut]
    #3713091 - 02/01/05 01:13 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

WTF? You called them theorists first. I was simply asking whose proposed steps we should follow.


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OfflineGazzBut
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Re: More Climate Predictions [Re: Silversoul]
    #3713248 - 02/01/05 01:39 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

No, Seuss called them theorists first...


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OfflineCyber
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Re: More Climate Predictions [Re: GazzBut]
    #3713276 - 02/01/05 01:43 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

GazzBut said:
From doucmentaries I have seen and reports I have read, within the climate research community there is a large school of thought that believes human induced climate change is indeed real. To call these people merely theorists does them a great disservice as their is alot of hard science behind their "theories". These people would be able to give information to governments that would enable them to act in the most effective way...if their theories are correct.




Lets talk science 101!

Theories

Part of the way that science works is that someone comes up with a theory and hopefully a university or a researcher here and there considers the research seriously enough to try to disprove that theory. It's important to understand that in the world of science that you can never "prove" a theory. You can only disprove a theory or confirm evidence that supports that theory.

Thus they are theorists, and poor ones at that because the theories have been disproven many times and they do not revise there theories to fit the facts.

For Example: Henderson and Castles's analysis, to be published in the Energy and Environment journal, argues that the methodology used to estimate the accumulation of greenhouse gases (produced from combustion of petroleum, natural gas and coal) in the atmosphere by 2100 is erroneous and assumes an exaggerated level of economic growth for developing countries.


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