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Offlinefft2
journeyman

Registered: 06/15/04
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John Zogby's/Ruthers Predicts Kerry as our new President
    #3296884 - 10/30/04 11:55 AM (12 years, 7 months ago)

John Zogby's/Ruthers Predicts Kerry as our new President


John Zogby's/Ruthers - Tin Man vs Scarecrow - Who will Americans vote for? - US pollster is betting on Tin Man Kerry winning the race against Scarecrow Bush


LOST in the maze of conflicting views as to who is likely to win the US presidential election? The Tin Man and the Scarecrow from the Land of Oz may prove to be useful guides. They did for top US pollster John Zogby.

In 2000, Mr Zogby took a novel approach to predicting the race between Mr George W. Bush and former vice-president Al Gore.

He asked voters to make a choice: 'You live in the Land of Oz, and the candidates are either Tin Man, with all brains and no heart, or the Scarecrow, who is with all heart and no brains.'

The score - 46.2 per cent to the Scarecrow (seen to depict Mr Bush) and 46.2 per cent to the Tin Man (Mr Gore).

That made him conclude that Mr Gore had drawn level with Mr Bush when other polls had predicted a shoo-in for the latter.

It was a more accurate reading of the situation.

In the end, Mr Gore went on to win 48.4 per cent of the popular vote - higher than Mr Bush's 47.9 per cent. But he lost to Mr Bush in the Electoral College tally, which determines who gets to occupy the White House.

In an interview with The Sunday Times, Mr Zogby sees the Tin Man-versus-Scarecrow model as still relevant in the present race, with Mr Bush now facing a new Tin Man in the form of Senator John Kerry.

And the pollster is staking his 20 years of experience in a Kerry win - at least from soundings of America's 'undecided' voters.

While they account for only 5 per cent of the American electorate, they are highly important in a polarised polity which supports, in roughly equal numbers, Mr Bush and Mr Kerry, said Mr Zogby, who was a guest speaker at a Reuters panel discussion on the US elections here on Friday.

Polls of focus groups working with the 'undecideds' show that they want a change in the country's direction.

Other off-the-wall questions the chief executive of Zogby International has thrown at voters include whether they prefer chocolate or strawberry ice cream and whether they see the world though global or local eyes.

The key, he says, is to go for a wider perspective of what influences voters on polling day.

'A pollster has got to have a sense of history and perspective, a strong sense of popular culture.

'Often times, the least important question is 'Who are you going to vote for?',' said Mr Zogby, who used to teach history.

Assessing the state of battle, he said 93 per cent of voters who profess no affiliation to the Republican or Democrat camp are likely to go out and vote on Nov 2.

Their numbers - about seven million - could tip the scales in a tight race. Going by the Tin Man/Scarecrow contest, Mr Kerry is ahead by 9 percentage points. So over the next three weeks, said Mr Zogby, the battle will be less over issues and more on voter turnout.

While Mr Kerry would want the 'undecideds' to vote, Mr Bush would want the very opposite.

The emerging importance of 'undecideds' underscores how polarised the body politic has become, said Mr Zogby, who has tagged this year's polls the 'Armageddon election' between two 'warring states'.

'We are really at a point where each side thinks that if the other wins, it could be the end of the Republic as we know it.'

It was not always like this.

In the 1980s and 1990s, the Reagan and Clinton administrations bridged political divides by reaching 'across the aisle' and building new coalitions to push through new laws.

In 1800, Thomas Jefferson emerged from a nasty presidential battle with incumbent John Adams by pushing through a comprehensive programme that crossed political lines.

Asked who he was rooting for, he said: 'Thomas Jefferson. The next president of the US has to bring this country back together.'

- By William Choong Straits Times, Singapore

(10/17/2004)

Methodology
SAMPLING

The majority of telephone lists for polls and surveys are produced in the IT department at Zogby International. Vendor-supplied lists are used for regions with complicated specifications, e.g., some Congressional Districts. Customer-supplied lists are used for special projects like customer satisfaction surveys and organization membership surveys.

Telephone lists generated in our IT department are called from the 2002 version of a nationally published set of phone CDs of listed households, ordered by telephone number. Residential (or business) addresses are selected and then coded by region, where applicable. An appropriate replicate1 is generated from this parent list, applying the replicate algorithm repeatedly with a very large parent list, e.g., all of the US.

Acquired lists are tested for duplicates, coded for region, tested for regional coverage, and ordered by telephone, as needed.

The resulting list is loaded into the CATI application and the randomize function within the CATI software is run to further assure a good mix for the telephone list.

INTERVIEWING

Interviews are conducted at Zogby International by professional interviewers trained on our computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) computer system. A policy requiring one supervisor to no more than twelve interviewers is used. The sample management module of the CATI system gives all prospective respondent households in the source telephone list the same chance of joining the sample. Regional quotas are employed to ensure adequate coverage nationwide.

WEIGHTING
Reported frequencies and crosstabs are weighted using the appropriate demographic profile to provide a sample that best represents the targeted population from which the sample is drawn from. The proportions comprising the demographic profile are compiled from historical exit poll data, census data, and from Zogby International survey data.

SAMPLING ERROR

Sampling Error, often referred to as the Margin of Error, is the percentage that survey results are likely to differ from the actual due to the size of the sample drawn. If a survey were conducted of all the members of a population, the sampling error would be zero. There are other sources of possible error in survey research such as sample design error and measurement error.

DEFINITIONS

1CATI ? Computer-Aided Telephone Interview. This is software application that displays survey questions to interviewer at LAN workstation, stores survey responses keyed in by interviewer on server, and manages list disposition.

2Replicate ? A sub-list with the same cover characteristics as its parent list. Replicates are generated from the parent list by selecting every nth record from the parent list, where n is the size of the replicate / total records in parent list.


http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=893


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Invisibleluvdemshrooms
Two inch dick..but it spins!?


Registered: 11/29/01
Posts: 34,203
Loc: Lost In Space
Re: John Zogby's/Ruthers Predicts Kerry as our new President [Re: fft2]
    #3296901 - 10/30/04 11:58 AM (12 years, 7 months ago)

Only a few more days of these stupid poll posts.


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You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. What one person receives without working for another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for that my dear friend is the beginning of the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it. ~ Adrian Rogers


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OfflineTao
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Registered: 09/19/03
Posts: 7,935
Loc: San Diego
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Re: John Zogby's/Ruthers Predicts Kerry as our new President [Re: luvdemshrooms]
    #3296921 - 10/30/04 12:08 PM (12 years, 7 months ago)

but then we'll get the 'i told you he would win' posts


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Magash's Grain Tek  + Tub-in-Tub Incubator + Magash's PMP + SBP Tek + Dunking = Practically all a newbie grower needs :thumbup:


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InvisibleVvellum
Stranger

Registered: 05/24/04
Posts: 10,920
Re: John Zogby's/Ruthers Predicts Kerry as our new President [Re: fft2]
    #3296928 - 10/30/04 12:10 PM (12 years, 7 months ago)

I also think Kerry will win by a slim margin - hopefully that'll show that national polls are a joke.


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Registered: 02/11/04
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Re: John Zogby's/Ruthers Predicts Kerry as our new President [Re: fft2]
    #3296975 - 10/30/04 12:26 PM (12 years, 7 months ago)

October 17th? Ruthers? Who the fuck are you kidding? Not me.


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OfflineRoseM
Devil's Advocate
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Registered: 09/24/03
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Re: John Zogby's/Ruthers Predicts Kerry as our new President [Re: zappaisgod]
    #3297024 - 10/30/04 12:41 PM (12 years, 7 months ago)

Click his link... so he misspelled Reuters, the link doesn't.


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Fiddlesticks.



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Offlinezappaisgod
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Registered: 02/11/04
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Re: John Zogby's/Ruthers Predicts Kerry as our new President [Re: Rose]
    #3297029 - 10/30/04 12:44 PM (12 years, 7 months ago)

I did click it. That's how I know it's 2 WEEKS OLD. The "Ruthers" is one reason why I clicked it. I check everybody's links now, especially when they appear to be transcribed instead of pasted.


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OfflineRoseM
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Re: John Zogby's/Ruthers Predicts Kerry as our new President [Re: zappaisgod]
    #3297037 - 10/30/04 12:47 PM (12 years, 7 months ago)

OK, it is two weeks old, it is evident from the article.

Two Days ago, Zogby predicted a Kerry win on The Daily Show.

Yesterday, Bin Laden released a tape.

All the polls are old news.

Although, today's Zogby tracking poll, shows Kerry in the lead by 1%.


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Fiddlesticks.



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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: John Zogby's/Ruthers Predicts Kerry as our new President [Re: Rose]
    #3297045 - 10/30/04 12:53 PM (12 years, 7 months ago)

I am somewhat loath to point this out as it might snap you out of a complacency, but you may not be in one, so here it is.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls.html
Enjoy. He seems to be alone in his conclusions. And much has changed in the last 2 weeks.


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OfflineRoseM
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Re: John Zogby's/Ruthers Predicts Kerry as our new President [Re: zappaisgod]
    #3297049 - 10/30/04 12:56 PM (12 years, 7 months ago)

Yes he does,

As he was last election... when he was the only one to get it right.

There's a reason you've heard a lot from Zogby this time... he was right last time.

Nobody else was.


--------------------
Fiddlesticks.



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InvisibleVvellum
Stranger

Registered: 05/24/04
Posts: 10,920
Re: John Zogby's/Ruthers Predicts Kerry as our new President [Re: zappaisgod]
    #3297050 - 10/30/04 12:56 PM (12 years, 7 months ago)

national polls dont mean shit especially when the difference is generally within the margin of error.


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Anonymous

Re: John Zogby's/Ruthers Predicts Kerry as our new President [Re: fft2]
    #3297054 - 10/30/04 12:57 PM (12 years, 7 months ago)

I predicted that the Democratic candidate would be elected president 9 months ago. It doesn't matter whether the candidate is John Kerry or Donald Duck. It doesn't even matter what the polls say.

I also wouldn't be surprised if, shortly after being elected, Kerry experiences some life threatening 'health problems.'

Wait and see.  :wink:


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Offlinemichotim002
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Registered: 10/23/04
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Re: John Zogby's/Ruthers Predicts Kerry as our new President [Re: ]
    #3297055 - 10/30/04 12:59 PM (12 years, 7 months ago)

I love bush


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Offlinezappaisgod
horrid asshole

Registered: 02/11/04
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Re: John Zogby's/Ruthers Predicts Kerry as our new President [Re: Rose]
    #3297074 - 10/30/04 01:05 PM (12 years, 7 months ago)

Quote:

Cervantes said:
Yes he does,

As he was last election... when he was the only one to get it right.

There's a reason you've heard a lot from Zogby this time... he was right last time.

Nobody else was.




The only one???? I sincerely doubt THAT.


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OfflineRoseM
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Re: John Zogby's/Ruthers Predicts Kerry as our new President [Re: zappaisgod]
    #3297079 - 10/30/04 01:07 PM (12 years, 7 months ago)

How many big time pollsters do you think predicted Gore would win the popular vote but Bush would win the electoral?


--------------------
Fiddlesticks.



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Offlinezappaisgod
horrid asshole

Registered: 02/11/04
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Re: John Zogby's/Ruthers Predicts Kerry as our new President [Re: Rose]
    #3297085 - 10/30/04 01:08 PM (12 years, 7 months ago)

I think most of them probably just stuck with picking the winner


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OfflineRoseM
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Re: John Zogby's/Ruthers Predicts Kerry as our new President [Re: zappaisgod]
    #3297120 - 10/30/04 01:17 PM (12 years, 7 months ago)

All I'm saying is, Zogby was SO right last time, he is worth watching this time. It'll be interesting to see if his methods are really more acurate than others.

We won't know 'till Tuesday... or December... but he's the pollster to watch.

Last election, Gallup was the nation's darling.


--------------------
Fiddlesticks.



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Invisibleluvdemshrooms
Two inch dick..but it spins!?


Registered: 11/29/01
Posts: 34,203
Loc: Lost In Space
Re: John Zogby's/Ruthers Predicts Kerry as our new President [Re: Tao]
    #3297536 - 10/30/04 03:24 PM (12 years, 7 months ago)

Quote:

TaoTeChing said:
but then we'll get the 'i told you he would win' posts



Sadly, no matter who wins.

Crap..... those will be just as bad.


--------------------
You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. What one person receives without working for another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for that my dear friend is the beginning of the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it. ~ Adrian Rogers


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Invisibleluvdemshrooms
Two inch dick..but it spins!?


Registered: 11/29/01
Posts: 34,203
Loc: Lost In Space
Re: John Zogby's/Ruthers Predicts Kerry as our new President [Re: luvdemshrooms]
    #3297549 - 10/30/04 03:28 PM (12 years, 7 months ago)

This has been posted by others and is probably a more realistic way to do it.


--------------------
You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. What one person receives without working for another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for that my dear friend is the beginning of the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it. ~ Adrian Rogers


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OfflineDivided_Sky
Ten ThousandThings

Registered: 11/02/03
Posts: 3,171
Loc: The Shining Void
Last seen: 9 years, 28 days
Re: John Zogby's/Ruthers Predicts Kerry as our new President [Re: luvdemshrooms]
    #3297572 - 10/30/04 03:35 PM (12 years, 7 months ago)

Zogby has been a pretty accurate pollster in the past, but I think Bush will win next week(or next month depending on how many lawsuits the democrats charge). We shall see.


--------------------
1. "After an hour I wasn't feeling anything so I decided to take another..."
2. "We were feeling pretty good so we decided to smoke a few bowls..."
3. "I had to be real quiet because my parents were asleep upstairs..."


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