chopstick said: Can you imagine if Russia supported a coup in Mexico and installed a pro-Russian government that hates America and then started supplying them with arms so they could wage a war against the USA right on their doorstep?
Well that is what the USA has done against Russia in Ukraine.
Luckily for the world, the plan backfired, instead of getting a major war with Russia all they got was a civil war between East and West Ukraine.
Thank God the people in Donbass rose up and stood up for themselves, or we would have gotten something even worse.
These exact sort of situations you postulate have been ongoing for the last 80 years, the US and Russia/USSR have waged proxy wars worldwide in any place where a power vacuum has occurred. It's nothing new.
US influence in Mexico has been a combination of both cordial and powerful enough to prevent anything Soviet/Russian taking hold there... However, the same cannot be said of Cuba, Honduras, Guatemala, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Venezuela, etc.
I'm not exonerating the US of any ill doings, their hands are plenty dirty in this, and other affairs.. Manipulations arife to be sure - However... the following is what I consider to be the most important happenings:
-Entering the events, pro-Russian incumbent Viktor Yanukovych's popularity had peaked at 35% in 2010 when elected, then following the arrest and trial of his main Presidential competitor Yulia Tymoshenko in 2011 - his popularity dropped to around 11% - and never managed to peak much above 20% after that. This, of course including Eastern Ukraine which was pro-Yanukovych (they elected him afterall) so where the protests actually took place, approval ratings were likely between 5-10% consistently. According to an April 2014 poll conducted by the Razumkov Centre, only 4.9% of respondents would have liked to see Yanukovych return to the presidency. (take with grain of salt...) -Viktor Yanukovych is pressured by its citizenship/congress to join EU association act, pressured by Moscow to abandon this path or face consequences.
-Moscow bans all exports from Ukraine (before any protests or actions have been taken)... This instantly polarizes the nation, wrecks havoc on the economy, and generates blocs of intense resentment against Viktor Yanukovych. Yanukovych cancels the EU association proceedings, causing further resentment and polarities to form. At this point the protests in Western Ukraine begin.
- While Ukraine was generally fairly divided as to EU association - the population in Western Ukraine/Kiev (center of government activities) was not... With closer EU association clearly desired.
-Due to USSR extermination of ethnic Ukrainians and subsequent resettlement by Russians, Eastern Ukraine was already essentially demographically and ideologically polar to the west.
- The resolve and determination of the protestors rose considerably after Ukranian police started to crack down on protestors. (Some would implicate the US or Russia in inciting these crackdowns)
- Tapings of US embassy staff reveal that the US seems to be confident that the incumbent government will be overthrown (not necessarily implicating the US in overthrowing it, as by this point, considering the facts of the situation - an overthrow seemed inevitable... though US intervention is of course not ruled out) , and implicate the US in manipulations as to the future government of Ukraine.
- Anti-protest laws in January broadly stripping rights of citizens further intensify the situation - at this point, the incumbent government has taken so much action to dig itself into a hole, it is very difficult at this point to solely blame outside incursion..
- Getting a little sketchy with the law now, the president flees surmounting millita pressure on government installations (the source of which is quite debatable) to Russia, assisted by its government, attempting to make it look like a visit, however is immediately - arguably illegally - removed from his post by an under-legal size congress. On the other hand of this - one could easily purport that the congress was simply following the peoples will, and diffusing the crisis in the only way it saw possible, as especially in the area of Ukraine where the government operated, a mass majority of the population wished for his removal.
Now, we bring Russia into the equation and it becomes very difficult to differentiate truth and propaganda, but by my perceptions:
- Simultaneous to the protests, Russia - sensing that the incumbent government will fail, initiates a plan to polarize Eastern Ukraine against the West... implementing vast programs of censorship and propaganda, spreading outright lies such as the "Ukranian Government passing laws to illegalize Russian", the new president/supporters all being fascists/neo-nazis, ethnic cleansings of Russians,
- Nationalist/Pro-putin propaganda in Russia continues its exponential growth, accompanied by Russian internet censorship of Wikipedia, The Internet Wayback Machine(allows you to view websites in the past), all major political opposition, bitcoin information, independent press etc.
And ughhhh... I know I left out a lot of important things - just writing that much was fairly exhausting, as the situation is exceedingly complex and convoluted, but other things worth mentioning definitely is the interim government having been a lodestone for the early Eastern resistance - the refusal of the East to take place in fair elections, the international illegality/lack of oversight of the Crimean annexation, the controversy about ununiformed Russian military involvement and equipment sent to the East...
I didn't get as far writing as I would've liked but my conclusion being: I believe that these events for the most part were internally fueled, the conditions for the removal of the President were easily visible without any outside interference. In light of this; to both continue its strategic influence on the nation and possibly even expand it - Russia has undertaken their plot in Eastern Ukraine/Crimea.. and the US seeing an opportunity to expand its influence, undertook its plot to see the new government ran by more western-aligned figures. It was opportunism at its finest. However I see Russia in this case upping the game from what was originally a classic cold war contest of political intrigue, into a full on military confrontation. The signs I see clearly point towards Russia being the instigator of war, and the US' current behavior shows that that is not what it wants at all, although in that direction it is beginning to be swayed.
What baffles me most though and makes me very alert as to the Russian's behavior is really their skyrocketing internal censorship, banning wikipedia is HUGE in my view. What is Russia afraid of its citizens seeing? Why is Putin so worried about internal dissent if their position is truly righteous? Is it just habit from having been in the spy game for so long?
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