Kerry Favored Over Bush 47%-43% In Multi-Candidate Race
Released: August 15, 2004
Kerry Favored Over Bush 47%-43% In Multi-Candidate Race; Voters With Passports Give Kerry 58%-35% Edge; Candidates in Dead Heat Among Investors; New Zogby America Poll Reveals
Massachusetts Senator John Kerry is favored over President George W. Bush (47%-43%) among likely voters when Ralph Nader, Libertarian, Constitution and Green Party presidential candidates are factored into the 2004 presidential race, according to a new Zogby America poll. The telephone poll of 1011 likely voters was conducted Thursday through Saturday (August 12-14, 2004). Overall results have a margin of sampling error of +/-3.1.
Presidential Candidates %
Aug12-14
Democrat -John Kerry
47
Republican-George W. Bush
43
Independent-Ralph Nader
2
Libertarian-Michael Badnarik
1
Constitution-Michael Peroutka
.2
Green-David Cobb
.2
Other
.8
Undecided 7
The presidential ticket of Massachusetts Senator John Kerry and North Carolina Senator John Edwards gained two points since the Democratic National convention over President George W. Bush and Vice-President Dick Cheney and now leads by seven points (50%-43%).
Presidential Ticket %
Aug12-14
July 27-29
July 6-7
Kerry-Edwards
50
48
48
Bush-Cheney
43
43
46
Undecided
6
8
5
President Bush?s overall job performance rating moved up three points to 47%, with more than half of respondents continuing to express their disapproval.
George W. Bush
8/12-14
7/27-29
7/6-7
6/2-5
5/10-13
Approve
47
44
49
46
42
Disapprove
52
56
51
54
58
Undecided
1
0
0
0
0
The majority of respondents say that the country is headed on the wrong track (51%), while 42% feel the US is on the right track.
US Direction
8/12-14
7/27-29
7/6-7
6/2-5
5/ 10-13
Wrong
51
50
48
50
54
Right
42
41
47
44
40
Undecided
7
9
5
6
6
When asked if President Bush "deserves to be re-elected", 43% of likely voters responded positively, while the majority (53%) still says that it is "time for someone new."
George W. Bush
8/12-14
7/27-29
7/6-7
6/2-5
5/10-13
Re-Elect
43
42
43
43
42
Someone New
53
51
53
53
53
Undecided
4
7
4
5
6
As part of the Zogby-O?Leary Report Red and Blue States Monitor, in the Blues States, those won by former Vice-President Al Gore in the 2000 presidential election, Kerry receives 54% of support, as compared to Bush 37%. In the Red States, Bush is favored by 47%, while receives 41% support.
Presidential Ticket %
Blues States
Red States
Kerry
54
41
Bush
37
47
Undecided
6
6
Nearly one in three (31%) continue to identify jobs and the economy as the top issue facing the country, followed by the war on terrorism (19%); the war in Iraq (14%); health care (8%); and education (4%). * This month the war in Iraq stays as the fourth important issue
Pollster John Zogby: ?Kerry leads in the Blue States by 17 (54%-37%) while Bush leads in the Red States by 6 (47%-41%). Good news for the President: he is back to attracting 86% of Republicans, while Kerry gets 79% of the Democrats. However, Kerry leads 49% to 31% among Independents.
?Among the majority who say the country is headed on the wrong track, Kerry leads 84% to 5%, while Bush has the right direction voters 86% to 8%. In 1996, Bill Clinton led Bob Dole over both groups.
?Kerry leads among all age groups except 30-49 year olds, where the two candidates are pretty much tied. Catholics give Kerry a 50%-37% edge ? numbers more similar to Clinton?s leads in 1992 and 1996 than Al Gore?s 51% to 46% margin in 2000. Protestants are for Bush (57% to 33%), especially on the strength of the President?s 68% to 20% margin among Born Again Protestants.
?Voters with active passports prefer Kerry 58% to 35%, while those without a passport are for Bush 48% to 39%. Union voters give Kerry a 22 point advantage ? 55% to 33%.
?The two candidates are in a dead heat among self-identified members of the investor class ? Kerry 45% to Bush?s 44%. Bush won this group by double digits in 2000. Not only has this group shrunk from almost half of all voters to only 31%, but Bush is now tied among a group he will need for victory.
?Bush leads among men 46% to 43%, while Kerry leads among women 50% to 39%. Bush also leads among Northern Europeans 47% to 44% and Southern Europeans 52% to 47%. Kerry is ahead among Eastern Europeans 63% to 29%.
?Big city voters favor Kerry 58% to 36%, as do Suburban voters 49% to 41%, while small city voters are with Bush 52% to 38%. Bush leads Kerry among rural voters 42% to 39%.?
Zogby International conducted telephone interviews of 1011 likely voters chosen at random nationwide. All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from Thursday, August 12 through Saturday, August 14. The margin of error is +/3.1 percentage points. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion and gender to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.
|
Threaded
Previous
Index
Next
Shop: Unfolding Nature: Being in the Implicate Order
fft2 
KingOftheThing 
Edit 
Reply 
1 2 all )
phi1618
Evolving
Phred
Annapurna1
Swami
fft2
SpecialEd