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InvisibleAnnapurna1
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new poll shows decisive swing to bush...
    #3053266 - 08/26/04 12:03 PM (19 years, 6 months ago)

LA times

Bush Edges Ahead of Kerry for the 1st Time
The president gains in several measurements but remains in a statistical tie. Ads on the senator's war record seem to have an effect.
By Ronald Brownstein
Times Staff Writer

August 26, 2004

WASHINGTON ? President Bush heads into next week's Republican National Convention with voters moving slightly in his direction since July amid signs that Sen. John F. Kerry has been nicked by attacks on his service in Vietnam, a Times poll has found.

For the first time this year in a Times survey, Bush led Kerry in the presidential race, drawing 49% among registered voters, compared with 46% for the Democrat. In a Times poll just before the Democratic convention last month, Kerry held a 2-percentage-point advantage over Bush.

That small shift from July was within the poll's margin of error. But it fit with other findings in the Times poll showing the electorate edging toward Bush over the past month on a broad range of measures, from support for his handling of Iraq to confidence in his leadership and honesty.

Although a solid majority of Americans say they believe Kerry served honorably in Vietnam, the poll showed that the attacks on the senator from a group of Vietnam veterans criticizing his performance in combat and his antiwar protests at home have left some marks: Kerry suffered small but consistent erosion compared with July on questions relating to his Vietnam experience, his honesty and his fitness to serve as commander in chief.

The Times Poll, supervised by polling director Susan Pinkus, interviewed 1,597 adults, including 1,352 registered voters nationwide, from Saturday through Tuesday. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

With independent voters splitting evenly in the survey between the two men, one key to Bush's tentative new advantage was his greater success at consolidating his base. While 3% of voters who called themselves Republicans said they would vote for Kerry, Bush drew 15% of all Democrats, and 20% of Democrats who consider themselves moderate or conservative, the poll found.

Bush's advantage remained 3 percentage points when independent candidate Ralph Nader was added to the mix. In a three-way race, Bush drew 47%, compared with 44% for Kerry and 3% for Nader, whose access to the ballot in many key states remains uncertain.

For all the promising signs for Bush, the poll found the president still threatened by a current of uneasiness about the nation's direction. In the survey, a slight majority of voters said they believed the country was on the wrong track. A majority also said the country was not better off because of his policies and needed to set a new course. And 45% said they believed his policies had hurt rather than helped the economy.

Those results suggested that a substantial part of the electorate remained open to change. But amid the firefight over Kerry's Vietnam service and uncertainty about his policy plans, the Democrat still has not built a constituency for his candidacy as large as the audience for change in general, the poll suggested. Nearly 1 in 5 voters who say the country needs to change policy direction is not supporting Kerry, according to the poll.

Pamela Sundberg, a disabled paralegal from Moorhead, Minn., who responded to the survey, crystallized the conflicting emotions among those drawn toward change but still resisting Kerry.

Sundberg voted for Bush in 2000, but now feels "we got ourselves in a mess in Iraq," where her son has been serving. She is dubious about Kerry, saying that "he's so back-and-forth about things."

But while leaning toward Bush now, she can envision switching to Kerry by November. "Maybe just for a change, he should be elected," she said.

Swift Boat Divide

The country divides mostly along predictable partisan lines on the exchanges between Kerry and the group that has attacked his Vietnam record over the past month, Swift Boat Veterans for Truth. But by several measures, the struggle appears to be drawing some blood from Kerry.

The Swift boat group, which has received funding from several of Bush's supporters and advice from some veteran Republican operatives, has made only relatively small purchases of television time in a few battleground states for its two ads, the first charging that Kerry did not deserve some of the five medals he won in Vietnam and the second criticizing his antiwar testimony before the Senate in 1971.

But with the controversy attracting intense media attention, especially on talk radio and cable television, the ads have achieved extraordinary visibility among voters. Fully 48% of those polled said they had seen the ad accusing Kerry of lying to win his medals; an additional 20% said they had heard about it. Similarly, 44% said they had seen the ad criticizing Kerry's Senate testimony; another 17% said they had heard about it.

At the same time, 18% of those surveyed said they "believe that Kerry misrepresented his war record and does not deserve his war medals," while 58% said Kerry "fought honorably and does deserve" the medals.

Attitudes on that question divided along party lines. As many Republicans said they believed Kerry was lying as believed he fought honorably. By nearly 10 to 1, Democrats said Kerry served honorably.

Independents sided with Kerry in the dispute by more than 5 to 1. Among them was Monika Schiel, a retiree in Gardena, Calif. "You have all the people that were on Kerry's boat?not somewhere downstream or upstream?confirming what he said," said Schiel. "This is some typical smear stuff; it seems mostly done by Republicans."

When voters were asked whether Kerry's protest against the war when he returned from Vietnam would influence their vote, 20% said it made them more likely to support him, while 26% said it reduced the chance they would back him, and 52% said it made no difference.

But if Kerry showed relatively few bruises on these questions directly measuring reactions to the veterans' charges against him, indirect measures suggested he had suffered more damage.

Asked how Kerry's overall military experience would affect their vote, 23% said it made them more likely to vote for him, while 21% said it made them less likely; the remaining 53% said it would make no difference. That has to be a disappointment for the Kerry camp after a Democratic convention last month that placed Kerry's Vietnam service at the top of the marquee.

Two other key questions produced even more troubling results for Kerry.

In the July Times poll, 53% of voters said Kerry had demonstrated in his Vietnam combat missions the "qualities America needs in a president," while 32% said that by "protesting the war in Vietnam, John Kerry demonstrated a judgment and belief that is inappropriate in a president."

In the August survey, that balance nudged away from Kerry, with 48% saying he had demonstrated the right qualities and 37% saying he had exhibited poor judgment.

Likewise, the share of voters saying they lacked confidence in Kerry as a potential commander in chief edged up from 39% in July to 43% now; the percentage that said they were confident in him slipped from 57% to 55%. Both changes were within the poll's margin of error, yet both tracked with the poll's general pattern of slight Kerry slippage.

Similar trends were evident on voters' assessments of the two men's personal qualities. Compared with July, Bush slightly widened his advantage over Kerry when voters were asked which was a strong leader and which had the honesty and integrity to serve as president.

Following the poll's general trend, the percentage of voters who said they viewed Kerry favorably slipped from 58% in July to 53% in August, while the percentage who viewed him unfavorably ticked up from 36% to 41%. Bush's ratings were virtually unchanged from last month in this poll, with 53% viewing him favorably and 46% unfavorably.

The poll spotlighted another challenge for Kerry. After a Democratic convention that focused much more on Kerry's biography than his agenda, 58% said they knew even a fair amount about the policies he would pursue as president; nearly 4 in 10 said they knew not much or nothing at all.

By comparison, although Bush has put forward few specifics about his second-term priorities, 70% said they had a good idea of the policies he would pursue.

Bush Holding His Own

Compared with the trend of modest erosion for Kerry in the poll, Bush either slightly gained ground or stabilized his position on several measures.

Bush's overall approval rating, which many analysts consider the best single gauge of his prospects in November, stood at 52%, with 47% disapproving; the numbers last month were 51% to 48%.

Bush's approval rating on the economy, at 46%, hardly budged from July. But the percentage of voters who gave him positive marks on Iraq did bump up from 44% in July to 48% now, with 50% disapproving.

Asked if the situation in Iraq was worth launching the war over, 46% said yes and 49% said no; last month the numbers were 44% and 51%.

"We should have done it a long time ago, eight to 10 years ago, and we probably wouldn't have had 9/11," said Gene Cox, a small-business owner and veteran from Crestview, Fla., who is supporting Bush.

Yet warning signs continue to blink at Bush. Fully 54% of voters said the country was not better off because of Bush's policies and that it should move in a new direction ? although that represented an improvement for Bush from the 59% who felt that way last month.

Asked if Bush deserved reelection, 47% of voters said yes and 49% said no. By contrast, Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan, the last two presidents who won a second term, polled 56% and 57% on that question, respectively, in other polls at roughly this time in their campaigns.

While 45% of those polled said Bush's economic policies had left the country worse off, 27% believed they had improved conditions. Independents fell on the negative side of that ledger by nearly 3 to 1. And 52% of all voters said the country was heading down the wrong track.

Voters were far more likely to identify Bush than Kerry as inflexible and unwilling to admit his mistakes. Pluralities picked Kerry over Bush when asked which man had better ideas for strengthening the economy and which was more likely "to build respect for the United States around the world."

"While America has had an image problem for decades, it's never been this low," said Grace Russo Bullaro, an independent and college professor from Syosset, N.Y., who did not vote in 2000 but planned to support Kerry this fall. "The world is now afraid that Bush is going to blow us up."

Since last month's poll, Bush has gained in the race against Kerry across a broad range of groups.

But Bush's greatest strides have come among groups that tend to hold more culturally conservative views, among them: voters earning less than $40,000 a year, those without college educations, married women, and voters living in small towns or rural communities. By contrast, since July, Bush has made almost no progress, or has lost ground, among constituencies that typically hold more socially moderate views: college graduates, more affluent families and suburbanites.

The Democrats picking Bush over Kerry in the poll tended to fit that profile as well, with Kerry suffering his greatest defections among Democrats without college degrees, those who own guns, and those who call themselves conservative, live in rural areas or are married.

All of this may offer more indirect evidence that the Vietnam-era charges are hurting Kerry with socially conservative constituencies that both sides covet.

One potential bright spot for Kerry: The 5% of voters who said they were undecided were overwhelmingly negative on the direction of the country, the impact of Bush's policies and the decision to invade Iraq.

Those voters were also much more likely than the electorate overall to say Kerry's service in Vietnam "demonstrated qualities America needs in a president." And they were less likely to see Kerry's protests when he returned as a sign of flawed judgment.

That could make them a receptive audience as Kerry fights to regain his balance from the Swift boat veterans' offensive, even as Bush approaches the stage for his convention.

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InvisibleKingOftheThing
the cool fool
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Posts: 27,397
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Re: new poll shows decisive swing to bush... [Re: Annapurna1]
    #3053292 - 08/26/04 12:08 PM (19 years, 6 months ago)

supposedly kerry is waiting till after the convention to make a big ad push.. wait till the begining of october before letting that news scare u

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InvisibleAnnapurna1
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Re: new poll shows decisive swing to bush... [Re: KingOftheThing]
    #3053402 - 08/26/04 12:31 PM (19 years, 6 months ago)

i know that such polls are of limited..but not zero..value at this time...however..in light of kerrys' recent behaviour..it makes perfect sense..as tragic as it will prove to be...

Edited by Annapurna1 (08/26/04 12:44 PM)

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OfflineZahid
Stranger
Registered: 01/21/02
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Re: new poll shows decisive swing to bush... [Re: Annapurna1]
    #3053439 - 08/26/04 12:38 PM (19 years, 6 months ago)

You can thank your Badnarikis for that.


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InvisibleKingOftheThing
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Re: new poll shows decisive swing to bush... [Re: Zahid]
    #3053446 - 08/26/04 12:40 PM (19 years, 6 months ago)

badarankanick rules!!!!!!!!!! solve all of our problems with a simplistic child-like approach to economics..

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OfflineZahid
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Re: new poll shows decisive swing to bush... [Re: KingOftheThing]
    #3053460 - 08/26/04 12:43 PM (19 years, 6 months ago)

Hehe. That's why he's not a real politician.


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InvisibleKingOftheThing
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Re: new poll shows decisive swing to bush... [Re: Zahid]
    #3053479 - 08/26/04 12:46 PM (19 years, 6 months ago)

duh... maybe he should try getting elected to a govt position other than president

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OfflineJesusChrist
Son Of God
Registered: 02/19/04
Posts: 1,459
Last seen: 11 years, 6 months
Swift Boat Mania! [Re: Annapurna1]
    #3053500 - 08/26/04 12:50 PM (19 years, 6 months ago)

WOO HOO SWIFTY SWIFTY SWIFTY!

John Kerry met with the North Vietnamese Communists and the Viet Cong in Paris while our proud men were fighting on the ground. As General Patton said at the time, he gave aid and comfort to the enemy. He submitted testimony to Congress on American War Crimes that had been completely fabricated. It defiled and disgraced the true image of our fighting men for his own political gain.

That type of politics may work for you in the liberal havens of the East Coast, but it doesn't go over well with fine and decent middle Americans. John Kerry's entire political career was founded upon treason. George Bush may be a putz, but he is no traitor. He may be draft dodger, but he never denigrated the men who serve. What Kerry did was wrong.

God Bless The Swift Boat Veterans. Americans should know the truth about John Kerry.


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Tastes just like chicken

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OfflineAncalagon
AgnosticLibertarian

Registered: 07/30/02
Posts: 1,364
Last seen: 15 years, 1 month
Re: new poll shows decisive swing to bush... [Re: KingOftheThing]
    #3053514 - 08/26/04 12:52 PM (19 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

KingOftheThing said:
badarankanick rules!!!!!!!!!! solve all of our problems with a simplistic child-like approach to economics..



So where's your magnum opus refuting the works of Mises, Rothbard, Friedman, Hayek, Hazlitt, and others? It's hard to imagine how the United States became the worlds leading economic power in under a century and a half through [something close to] an economic system that doesn't work. Downright mind-boggling!


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?When Alexander the Great visted the philosopher Diogenes and asked whether he could do anything for him, Diogenes is said to have replied: 'Yes, stand a little less between me and the sun.' It is what every citizen is entitled to ask of his government.?
-Henry Hazlitt in 'Economics in One Lesson'

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InvisibleKingOftheThing
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Re: Swift Boat Mania! [Re: JesusChrist]
    #3053516 - 08/26/04 12:53 PM (19 years, 6 months ago)

sean hannity, is that you??? john kerry wanted to bring our boys home, he saw the war first hand....george w bush is a pussy he supported vietnam but didnt go just like the rest of the disgusting chicken hawks in his administration... john kerry is a real man for fighting and then coming out against it. oh and if u dont think americans did crazy bad shit to vietnamese read a book...there are MANY accounts of americans and viet cong commiting horrible atrocities

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InvisibleKingOftheThing
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Re: new poll shows decisive swing to bush... [Re: Ancalagon]
    #3053535 - 08/26/04 12:57 PM (19 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

Ancalagon said:
Quote:

KingOftheThing said:
badarankanick rules!!!!!!!!!! solve all of our problems with a simplistic child-like approach to economics..



So where's your magnum opus refuting the works of Mises, Rothbard, Friedman, Hayek, Hazlitt, and others? It's hard to imagine how the United States became the worlds leading economic power in under a century and a half through [something close to] an economic system that doesn't work. Downright mind-boggling!




yeah lets go back to the working conditions of the early 1900s ...its easy to have a great economy when you're raping the lower/middle class...hell im sure slavery would help our economy too, lets pay people nothing!!! no minimum wage that will really improve our quality of life!!! lets have no govt regulaions on companies, so they can pull our pants down and rape us even harder.

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OfflineJesusChrist
Son Of God
Registered: 02/19/04
Posts: 1,459
Last seen: 11 years, 6 months
Re: new poll shows decisive swing to bush... [Re: Ancalagon]
    #3053546 - 08/26/04 01:00 PM (19 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

Ancalagon said:
Quote:

KingOftheThing said:
badarankanick rules!!!!!!!!!! solve all of our problems with a simplistic child-like approach to economics..



So where's your magnum opus refuting the works of Mises, Rothbard, Friedman, Hayek, Hazlitt, and others? It's hard to imagine how the United States became the worlds leading economic power in under a century and a half through [something close to] an economic system that doesn't work. Downright mind-boggling!




I don't know how anyone can begin to claim the jury is still out on the benefits of freedom and the free market.


--------------------
Tastes just like chicken

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OfflineZahid
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Re: new poll shows decisive swing to bush... [Re: Ancalagon]
    #3053549 - 08/26/04 01:00 PM (19 years, 6 months ago)

It's a free country, you're allowed to vote for an obvious loser if you want.


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OfflineAncalagon
AgnosticLibertarian

Registered: 07/30/02
Posts: 1,364
Last seen: 15 years, 1 month
Re: new poll shows decisive swing to bush... [Re: KingOftheThing]
    #3053600 - 08/26/04 01:13 PM (19 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

yeah lets go back to the working conditions of the early 1900s ...its easy to have a great economy when you're raping the lower/middle class...hell im sure slavery would help our economy too, lets pay people nothing!!! no minimum wage that will really improve our quality of life!!! lets have no govt regulaions on companies, so they can pull our pants down and rape us even harder.



Are you aware that child labor was on the decline before union-backed laws against it were passed? I have nothing against unions existing, but it is the capitalist system that leads to a continual increase in prosperity and a continual betterment in working conditions for all members of society. I believe it has actually been shown that slavery is deletarious to an economy. Regardless, and this is another topic, the war against southern independance should absolutely not have been waged and it is utterly insane that King Lincoln is deified in our excellent public schools.

It's really crazy for a liberal(or for that matter, the kind of faux-conservative that is so prominent today) to try and argue economics. The history and logic of the field stand firmly against almost everything you say. Again, if you are able, perhaps you should refute some of the works of Mises, Rothbard, Hazlitt, Hayek, and/or Friedman. I'm sure it'd be a cakewalk and you'd be a shoe-in for the nobel prize. Go for it!


--------------------
?When Alexander the Great visted the philosopher Diogenes and asked whether he could do anything for him, Diogenes is said to have replied: 'Yes, stand a little less between me and the sun.' It is what every citizen is entitled to ask of his government.?
-Henry Hazlitt in 'Economics in One Lesson'

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InvisibleKingOftheThing
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Re: new poll shows decisive swing to bush... [Re: Ancalagon]
    #3053626 - 08/26/04 01:20 PM (19 years, 6 months ago)

reallity shows that your proposed system didnt work for us in the early 1900s ...not only child labor, but unfair pay,safety hazzards, ridiculous hours, and pollution were problems...lets turn our clock bakc, because people were sooo much more successful and happy back then

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Offlineld50negative1
lethal dosage

Registered: 07/01/04
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Last seen: 16 years, 7 months
Re: new poll shows decisive swing to bush... [Re: Annapurna1]
    #3053648 - 08/26/04 01:24 PM (19 years, 6 months ago)

According to Alex Jones and the theory that whoever has the most "royal" familly history in europe will win. That person being Kerry. Any body ever looked through www.infowars.com or read anything about Alex Jones? I have a video of Alex being arrested for simply asking George Bush a question... all of his ideas are very interesting


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OfflineAncalagon
AgnosticLibertarian

Registered: 07/30/02
Posts: 1,364
Last seen: 15 years, 1 month
Re: new poll shows decisive swing to bush... [Re: KingOftheThing]
    #3053688 - 08/26/04 01:35 PM (19 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

but unfair pay



Relative to what? What people used to make on their subsistance farms? Because that's where many of the people working these new factories were coming from. I realize this might be hard for you to accept but maybe, JUST MAYBE, Jim right off the farm doesn't produce work worth a middle-class salary. Nah, couldn't be.

Quote:

safety hazzards, ridiculous hours



Again, I have no problem with Unions working to get better contracts for their members. The fact of the matter though, is that work-places were getting safer and hours were getting shorter WITH OR WITHOUT legislation. Despite socialist rhetoric, a race to the bottom does not occur in a capitalist system. Three factories on a street aren't going to keep disregarding their conditions, lowering wages, raising hours, etc. on their employees. They're going to compete with each other to try to lure the most productive employees. That means a factor with horrible conditions is going to have to raise wages to increase incentive to work at said factory.

Quote:

and pollution were problems



Libertarians are against the initiation of force and are therefore not opposed to reasonable legislation against pollution, especially when it can be proven that force is being initiatied against someone or his property. What we are against is 'NO MROE SMOKE FROM NEWHERE LOL!!' 'NO MRROERE SUVEHICLES 4EVER', stuff like that.

Quote:

lets turn our clock bakc, because people were sooo much more successful and happy back then



Right, because you've conducted studies on the relative happiness of the two generations of people?


--------------------
?When Alexander the Great visted the philosopher Diogenes and asked whether he could do anything for him, Diogenes is said to have replied: 'Yes, stand a little less between me and the sun.' It is what every citizen is entitled to ask of his government.?
-Henry Hazlitt in 'Economics in One Lesson'

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InvisibleSwami
Eggshell Walker

Registered: 01/18/00
Posts: 15,413
Loc: In the hen house
Re: new poll shows decisive swing to bush... [Re: Annapurna1]
    #3053788 - 08/26/04 02:08 PM (19 years, 6 months ago)

While 45% of those polled said Bush's economic policies had left the country worse off, 27% believed they had improved conditions.

What kind of imbecile thinks a trillion dollar debt is an improvement over a balanced budget? No one here, right? RIGHT?!


--------------------



The proof is in the pudding.

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