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Offlinefft2
journeyman

Registered: 06/15/04
Posts: 106
Last seen: 12 years, 8 months
Kerry Favored Over Bush 47%-43% In Multi-Candidate Race
    #3022076 - 08/19/04 06:15 AM (12 years, 10 months ago)

Kerry Favored Over Bush 47%-43% In Multi-Candidate Race


Released: August 15, 2004
Kerry Favored Over Bush 47%-43% In Multi-Candidate Race; Voters With Passports Give Kerry 58%-35% Edge; Candidates in Dead Heat Among Investors; New Zogby America Poll Reveals



Massachusetts Senator John Kerry is favored over President George W. Bush (47%-43%) among likely voters when Ralph Nader, Libertarian, Constitution and Green Party presidential candidates are factored into the 2004 presidential race, according to a new Zogby America poll. The telephone poll of 1011 likely voters was conducted Thursday through Saturday (August 12-14, 2004). Overall results have a margin of sampling error of +/-3.1.

Presidential Candidates %
Aug12-14

Democrat -John Kerry
47

Republican-George W. Bush
43

Independent-Ralph Nader
2

Libertarian-Michael Badnarik
1

Constitution-Michael Peroutka
.2

Green-David Cobb
.2

Other
.8

Undecided 7



The presidential ticket of Massachusetts Senator John Kerry and North Carolina Senator John Edwards gained two points since the Democratic National convention over President George W. Bush and Vice-President Dick Cheney and now leads by seven points (50%-43%).

Presidential Ticket %
Aug12-14
July 27-29
July 6-7

Kerry-Edwards
50
48
48

Bush-Cheney
43
43
46

Undecided
6
8
5




President Bush?s overall job performance rating moved up three points to 47%, with more than half of respondents continuing to express their disapproval.

George W. Bush
8/12-14
7/27-29
7/6-7
6/2-5
5/10-13

Approve
47
44
49
46
42

Disapprove
52
56
51
54
58

Undecided
1
0
0
0
0




The majority of respondents say that the country is headed on the wrong track (51%), while 42% feel the US is on the right track.

US Direction
8/12-14
7/27-29
7/6-7
6/2-5
5/ 10-13

Wrong
51
50
48
50
54

Right
42
41
47
44
40

Undecided
7
9
5
6
6


When asked if President Bush "deserves to be re-elected", 43% of likely voters responded positively, while the majority (53%) still says that it is "time for someone new."

George W. Bush
8/12-14
7/27-29
7/6-7
6/2-5
5/10-13

Re-Elect
43
42
43
43
42

Someone New
53
51
53
53
53

Undecided
4
7
4
5
6


As part of the Zogby-O?Leary Report Red and Blue States Monitor, in the Blues States, those won by former Vice-President Al Gore in the 2000 presidential election, Kerry receives 54% of support, as compared to Bush 37%. In the Red States, Bush is favored by 47%, while receives 41% support.

Presidential Ticket %
Blues States
Red States

Kerry
54
41

Bush
37
47

Undecided
6
6


Nearly one in three (31%) continue to identify jobs and the economy as the top issue facing the country, followed by the war on terrorism (19%); the war in Iraq (14%); health care (8%); and education (4%). * This month the war in Iraq stays as the fourth important issue

Pollster John Zogby: ?Kerry leads in the Blue States by 17 (54%-37%) while Bush leads in the Red States by 6 (47%-41%). Good news for the President: he is back to attracting 86% of Republicans, while Kerry gets 79% of the Democrats. However, Kerry leads 49% to 31% among Independents.

?Among the majority who say the country is headed on the wrong track, Kerry leads 84% to 5%, while Bush has the right direction voters 86% to 8%. In 1996, Bill Clinton led Bob Dole over both groups.

?Kerry leads among all age groups except 30-49 year olds, where the two candidates are pretty much tied. Catholics give Kerry a 50%-37% edge ? numbers more similar to Clinton?s leads in 1992 and 1996 than Al Gore?s 51% to 46% margin in 2000. Protestants are for Bush (57% to 33%), especially on the strength of the President?s 68% to 20% margin among Born Again Protestants.

?Voters with active passports prefer Kerry 58% to 35%, while those without a passport are for Bush 48% to 39%. Union voters give Kerry a 22 point advantage ? 55% to 33%.

?The two candidates are in a dead heat among self-identified members of the investor class ? Kerry 45% to Bush?s 44%. Bush won this group by double digits in 2000. Not only has this group shrunk from almost half of all voters to only 31%, but Bush is now tied among a group he will need for victory.

?Bush leads among men 46% to 43%, while Kerry leads among women 50% to 39%. Bush also leads among Northern Europeans 47% to 44% and Southern Europeans 52% to 47%. Kerry is ahead among Eastern Europeans 63% to 29%.

?Big city voters favor Kerry 58% to 36%, as do Suburban voters 49% to 41%, while small city voters are with Bush 52% to 38%. Bush leads Kerry among rural voters 42% to 39%.?

Zogby International conducted telephone interviews of 1011 likely voters chosen at random nationwide. All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from Thursday, August 12 through Saturday, August 14. The margin of error is +/3.1 percentage points. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion and gender to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.


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Offlinefft2
journeyman

Registered: 06/15/04
Posts: 106
Last seen: 12 years, 8 months
Re: Kerry Favored Over Bush 47%-43% In Multi-Candidate Race [Re: fft2]
    #3022080 - 08/19/04 06:15 AM (12 years, 10 months ago)

Methodology
SAMPLING

The majority of telephone lists for polls and surveys are produced in the IT department at Zogby International. Vendor-supplied lists are used for regions with complicated specifications, e.g., some Congressional Districts. Customer-supplied lists are used for special projects like customer satisfaction surveys and organization membership surveys.

Telephone lists generated in our IT department are called from the 2002 version of a nationally published set of phone CDs of listed households, ordered by telephone number. Residential (or business) addresses are selected and then coded by region, where applicable. An appropriate replicate1 is generated from this parent list, applying the replicate algorithm repeatedly with a very large parent list, e.g., all of the US.

Acquired lists are tested for duplicates, coded for region, tested for regional coverage, and ordered by telephone, as needed.

The resulting list is loaded into the CATI application and the randomize function within the CATI software is run to further assure a good mix for the telephone list.

INTERVIEWING

Interviews are conducted at Zogby International by professional interviewers trained on our computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) computer system. A policy requiring one supervisor to no more than twelve interviewers is used. The sample management module of the CATI system gives all prospective respondent households in the source telephone list the same chance of joining the sample. Regional quotas are employed to ensure adequate coverage nationwide.

WEIGHTING
Reported frequencies and crosstabs are weighted using the appropriate demographic profile to provide a sample that best represents the targeted population from which the sample is drawn from. The proportions comprising the demographic profile are compiled from historical exit poll data, census data, and from Zogby International survey data.

SAMPLING ERROR

Sampling Error, often referred to as the Margin of Error, is the percentage that survey results are likely to differ from the actual due to the size of the sample drawn. If a survey were conducted of all the members of a population, the sampling error would be zero. There are other sources of possible error in survey research such as sample design error and measurement error.

DEFINITIONS

1CATI ? Computer-Aided Telephone Interview. This is software application that displays survey questions to interviewer at LAN workstation, stores survey responses keyed in by interviewer on server, and manages list disposition.

2Replicate ? A sub-list with the same cover characteristics as its parent list. Replicates are generated from the parent list by selecting every nth record from the parent list, where n is the size of the replicate / total records in parent list.


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InvisibleKingOftheThing
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Re: Kerry Favored Over Bush 47%-43% In Multi-Candidate Race [Re: fft2]
    #3022706 - 08/19/04 12:01 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

thank god the country isnt totally going down the drain...the majority are still able to firmly grasp reality


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OfflineAncalagon
AgnosticLibertarian

Registered: 07/30/02
Posts: 1,364
Last seen: 8 years, 5 months
Re: Kerry Favored Over Bush 47%-43% In Multi-Candidate Race [Re: KingOftheThing]
    #3022717 - 08/19/04 12:03 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

KingOftheThing said:
thank god the country isnt totally going down the drain...the majority are still able to firmly grasp reality



The only people I see on that poll who grasp reality are the following:

Independent-Ralph Nader
2

Libertarian-Michael Badnarik
1

Constitution-Michael Peroutka
.2

Green-David Cobb
.2

Other
.8

Undecided 7


--------------------
?When Alexander the Great visted the philosopher Diogenes and asked whether he could do anything for him, Diogenes is said to have replied: 'Yes, stand a little less between me and the sun.' It is what every citizen is entitled to ask of his government.?
-Henry Hazlitt in 'Economics in One Lesson'


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InvisibleKingOftheThing
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Re: Kerry Favored Over Bush 47%-43% In Multi-Candidate Race [Re: Ancalagon]
    #3022730 - 08/19/04 12:07 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

umm well those candidates wont get bush out of office....i might vote 3rd party some day, not this year..


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OfflineAncalagon
AgnosticLibertarian

Registered: 07/30/02
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Re: Kerry Favored Over Bush 47%-43% In Multi-Candidate Race [Re: KingOftheThing]
    #3022788 - 08/19/04 12:25 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

KingOftheThing said:
umm well those candidates wont get bush out of office....i might vote 3rd party some day, not this year..



And if Jeb Bush runs in 2008, not that year either? What about if the Bush daughters start running in 2012, how about then? Keep feeding the system though.


--------------------
?When Alexander the Great visted the philosopher Diogenes and asked whether he could do anything for him, Diogenes is said to have replied: 'Yes, stand a little less between me and the sun.' It is what every citizen is entitled to ask of his government.?
-Henry Hazlitt in 'Economics in One Lesson'


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Invisiblesilversoul7
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Re: Kerry Favored Over Bush 47%-43% In Multi-Candidate Race [Re: Ancalagon]
    #3022796 - 08/19/04 12:27 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

It would be a damn shame if the Bush daughters ran for president instead of posing in Playboy like they should.


--------------------


"It is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong."--Voltaire


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OfflineAncalagon
AgnosticLibertarian

Registered: 07/30/02
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Re: Kerry Favored Over Bush 47%-43% In Multi-Candidate Race [Re: silversoul7]
    #3022806 - 08/19/04 12:30 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

silversoul7 said:
It would be a damn shame if the Bush daughters ran for president instead of posing in Playboy like they should.



Couldn't agree with you more.


--------------------
?When Alexander the Great visted the philosopher Diogenes and asked whether he could do anything for him, Diogenes is said to have replied: 'Yes, stand a little less between me and the sun.' It is what every citizen is entitled to ask of his government.?
-Henry Hazlitt in 'Economics in One Lesson'


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Offlinefft2
journeyman

Registered: 06/15/04
Posts: 106
Last seen: 12 years, 8 months
Re: Kerry Favored Over Bush 47%-43% In Multi-Candidate Race [Re: silversoul7]
    #3022834 - 08/19/04 12:35 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

silversoul7 said:
It would be a damn shame if the Bush daughters ran for president instead of posing in Playboy like they should.




I am all for that! I rather see a Bus than vote for a Bush!


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OfflineTasty_Smurf_House
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Re: Kerry Favored Over Bush 47%-43% In Multi-Candidate Race [Re: fft2]
    #3024792 - 08/19/04 07:56 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

Just because Kerry has majority of votes doesn't mean Bush still can't win. Remember last time? hah.


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OfflineEd1
member
Registered: 07/03/04
Posts: 150
Last seen: 12 years, 10 months
Re: Kerry Favored Over Bush 47%-43% In Multi-Candidate Race [Re: fft2]
    #3025526 - 08/19/04 10:01 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

What about Lyndon LaRouche? Have you ever read his psychobabble?


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OfflineEd1
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Registered: 07/03/04
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Re: Kerry Favored Over Bush 47%-43% In Multi-Candidate Race [Re: KingOftheThing]
    #3025543 - 08/19/04 10:03 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

KingOftheThing said:
thank god the country isnt totally going down the drain...the majority are still able to firmly grasp reality




If Kerry wins the election nothing will change.


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