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Re: TRUMP 2020 [Re: Metoo] * 1
    #26953698 -

Metoo said:
The 2016 polls failure in my view had to do with the silent support for Trump but probably not so much now.


I think the silent support is a lot larger now. The cost of being canceled is much greater now.

All things considered, I'm amazed anyone would put much faith in the polls.

"Sample size"?! "Margin of error"?! After 2016?! :crazy2:

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Re: TRUMP 2020 [Re: Metoo]
    #26953836 -

Metoo said:
I completely agree with you that the real subtlety lies in the sampling and, yes, a non-answer by a selected respondent can still carry some information  which may or may not end up extracted by the pollsters depending on how they process the responses. I also cannot think of a good way to quantify how much predictive power error all this introduces into the process. All I am saying is that I somehow had thought that the famed "margin of error" the journos talk about is more than a one-upon-sqrt-of-the-sample-size trivial calc.

The 2016 polls failure in my view had to do with the silent support for Trump but probably not so much now. In any case that was not my point - I only shared how inadequate this "margin of error" construct is in helping up assess the predictive power of polls. A global warming poll taken among 1000 people leaving a Greenpeace convention will still have a 3.2% "margin of error" despite being a joke.

EDIT - in terms of reflecting the mood of the population at large that is


I actually haven't seen a nonscientific survey that ever mentioned a margin of error. If they are then yeah, that's a joke,

I don't think what happened in 2016 was as big a polling error as others make it out to be. As far as I remember, they were only doing national surveys, and regardless of what criticisms could be presented for each specific survey, they weren't wrong; Hillary won the popular vote by 3 million. Their mistake was projecting that she would win the election.

So people are supposed to learn from their mistakes. In this election cycle everyone knows that 38-40 states are irrelevant. So now they are still doing some national numbers, but realizing with the peculiarities of the electoral college, Biden needs a big national edge to win the election, but that's still a stupid way to predict. So they are concentrating on states that are contested. In every state that was assumed to be contested, Biden is leading in all by good margins, or all but one considering one outlier poll. In addition, Biden is leading or in a dead heat in several states that were considered red. That's why I have been taking every $ bet I could get on Biden since March. I have seen nothing since then to make me lose confidence.


--------------------
"The Rolling Stones will break up over Brian Jones' dead body"    John Lennon

I don't want no commies in my car. No Christians either.

Simulacrum
The truth which conceals that there is none

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Re: TRUMP 2020 [Re: Brian Jones]
    #26954036 -

So Republicans are coming out of the woodwork in favor of peaceful transition after the election. When was the last time somebody's own party gave up on them with almost a week left in September in an election year.

I think Republicans want Trump to lose more than Democrats do. They want that Supreme Court pick and then GTFO Trumpy.


--------------------
"The Rolling Stones will break up over Brian Jones' dead body"    John Lennon

I don't want no commies in my car. No Christians either.

Simulacrum
The truth which conceals that there is none

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Re: TRUMP 2020 [Re: christopera]
    #26954315 -

christopera said:
Joe could go on stage and make arm pit fart noises for 3 hours and it wouldn't matter. That's how tired people are of Trump.


I dont know about that. These debates have the highest stakes that I can remember. If Joe fucks up big time, Trump could take it still. Granted, he would need a senile fueled stutter for each question.


--------------------
“I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”

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Re: TRUMP 2020 [Re: SirTripAlot]
    #26954318 -

If Trump loses, it should be the death of the Repubes (hopefully), dont see how they still become relevant.


--------------------
“I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”

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Re: TRUMP 2020 [Re: SirTripAlot]
    #26954374 -

SirTripAlot said:
These debates have the highest stakes that I can remember. If Joe fucks up big time, Trump could take it still. Granted, he would need a senile fueled stutter for each question.


Pelosi is saying Biden shouldn't debate:

https://twitter.com/tomselliott/status/1309470091667439616


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.

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Re: TRUMP 2020 [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #26954538 -

"The president has no fidelity to fact or truth"

--------------------------------------------

Thats right, shouldnt debate people that lie! That way, they can continue unabated.


--------------------
“I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Re: TRUMP 2020 [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #26954566 -

Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:
SirTripAlot said:
These debates have the highest stakes that I can remember. If Joe fucks up big time, Trump could take it still. Granted, he would need a senile fueled stutter for each question.


Pelosi is saying Biden shouldn't debate:

https://twitter.com/tomselliott/status/1309470091667439616


She’s absolutely right. Trump can lie. He can say stupid shit. He can get away with things Biden would never get away with in a debate.


--------------------
NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”

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Re: TRUMP 2020 [Re: koods] * 2
    #26954574 -

Thats a pussy position. President of the US should be able to counter lies and deception. Biden knows if he doesn't show, he will lose the election....due to the aforementioned.


--------------------
“I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Re: TRUMP 2020 [Re: SirTripAlot] * 1
    #26954602 -

SirTripAlot said:
"The president has no fidelity to fact or truth"

--------------------------------------------

Thats right, shouldnt debate people that lie! That way, they can continue unabated.


Do I detect sarcasm?  :smirk:

I'm never quite sure because some people here are as gullible as koods is in buying Pelosi's excuse, even though we now have fact checkers for all Presidential debates, because all Presidential candidates tend to lie.

Edit:  Yes, your follow up post shows you were being sarcastic.  :lol:


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.

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Re: TRUMP 2020 [Re: SirTripAlot]
    #26954609 -

SirTripAlot said:
Thats a pussy position. President of the US should be able to counter lies and deception. Biden knows if he doesn't show, he will lose the election....due to the aforementioned.


Why would you think Biden won’t show?

Donald Trump is the only politician I can think of who hasnt shown up for a debate


--------------------
NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”

Edited by koods (09/25/20 04:45 PM)

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Re: TRUMP 2020 [Re: koods] * 1
    #26954620 -

koods said:
SirTripAlot said:
Thats a pussy position. President of the US should be able to counter lies and deception. Biden knows if he doesn't show, he will lose the election....due to the aforementioned.


Why would you think Biden won’t show?

Donald Trump is the only politician I can think of who hasnt shown up for a debate


And this is exactly what I’m talking about. We are talking about how horrible it would be if Biden didn’t show up for a debate, despite there being no reason to believe this will happen while ignoring the fact that Donald Trump is the person with a history of not showing up for debates. What a fucking joke.


--------------------
NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”

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Re: TRUMP 2020 [Re: SirTripAlot] * 1
    #26954648 -

SirTripAlot said:
Thats a pussy position. President of the US should be able to counter lies and deception. Biden knows if he doesn't show, he will lose the election....due to the aforementioned.


Donald Trump skipped a debate because he said the moderator wouldn’t be fair.

Biden isn’t skipping the debate like Trump has done. This conversation is ridiculous


--------------------
NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”

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Re: TRUMP 2020 [Re: koods] * 1
    #26954674 -

koods said:
Donald Trump skipped a debate because he said the moderator wouldn’t be fair.

Biden isn’t skipping the debate like Trump has done. This conversation is ridiculous


You think the moderators aren't going to be fair to Biden?  :flowstone:

That's why Joe Rogan was brought up in the Biden thread; because he'd be a LOT more fair to both sides than the establishment moderators.


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.

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Re: TRUMP 2020 [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03] * 1
    #26954703 -

The first moderator is Chris Wallace from Fox News

Regardless, you aren’t going to see Biden whining about unfair moderators like trump does. All trump  does is whine about people being unfair to him.


--------------------
NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”

Edited by koods (09/25/20 05:52 PM)

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Re: TRUMP 2020 [Re: koods]
    #26954735 -

Of course it's Chris Wallace.

Chris Wallace, Trump’s Least Favorite Fox News Anchor, Will Moderate First Presidential Debate

Did you think they were going to give him Sean Hannity?  :flowstone:


Of course, neither would be good.  Someone more neutral would be best.


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.

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Re: TRUMP 2020 [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03] * 4
    #26954759 -

Who is Biden’s least favorite anchor?

Oh wait there isn’t one because Biden isn’t a whiny little bitch


--------------------
NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”

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Re: TRUMP 2020 [Re: koods]
    #26954813 -

Did Trump chicken out of the debate with Chris Wallace?

Did Biden chicken out of the debate with Joe Rogan?

Who's the whiny little bitch?  :popcorn:


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.

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Re: TRUMP 2020 [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #26954822 -

What debate with joe Rogan? Wtf are you talking about?


--------------------
NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”

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Re: TRUMP 2020 [Re: koods] * 1
    #26954826 -

The one Rogan offered to do that Trump accepted.


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.

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General Interest > Political Discussion
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