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 Metoo
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I completely agree with you that the real subtlety lies in the sampling and, yes, a non-answer by a selected respondent can still carry some information which may or may not end up extracted by the pollsters depending on how they process the responses. I also cannot think of a good way to quantify how much predictive power error all this introduces into the process. All I am saying is that I somehow had thought that the famed "margin of error" the journos talk about is more than a one-upon-sqrt-of-the-sample-size trivial calc.
The 2016 polls failure in my view had to do with the silent support for Trump but probably not so much now. In any case that was not my point - I only shared how inadequate this "margin of error" construct is in helping up assess the predictive power of polls. A global warming poll taken among 1000 people leaving a Greenpeace convention will still have a 3.2% "margin of error" despite being a joke.
EDIT - in terms of reflecting the mood of the population at large that is
Edited by Metoo (09/24/20 07:09 PM)
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imachavel
I loved and lost but I loved-ftw
Registered: 06/06/07
Posts: 27,086
Loc: You get banned for saying... 
Last seen: 1 day, 3 hours
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Quote:
Brian Jones said:
I think they will have Biden sufficiently prepared for the debates. My guess is they are emphasizing that he stay focused on well practiced talking points.
I wouldn't bet money on it, but if Biden stays emotionally controlled and Trump acts like Trump, Biden could win the debates.
I would be more likely to bet they will have Biden on some prudent dosage of speed.
 to help him with his memory I assume?
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The point to meditating is to feel the same when you are meditation as when you aren't. To be balanced inside and out. Difficult to do when being aware of breath and sensation. However, not impossible. Feeling ok about yourself at all times seems to be a great difficult skill to master. The concept so simple a snail could understand it. To practice it some of the greatest Albert Einstein type minds couldn't master it.
It's like the trick to human problems is to be even more human. Not less human but as human as possible, only understanding human nature.
Understanding subtleties is hard. What is subtle? Subtle is powerful. Atoms are subtle. Atoms make up everything we are. Understanding subtleties is one of the hardest parts of life.
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christopera
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Joe could go on stage and make arm pit fart noises for 3 hours and it wouldn't matter. That's how tired people are of Trump.
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RJ Tubs 202
Registered: 09/20/08
Posts: 4,457
Loc: USA
Last seen: 4 hours, 50 minutes
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 Re: TRUMP 2020  [Re: Metoo] 1
#26953698 - 09/25/20 02:01 AM (5 months, 4 days ago) |
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Quote:
Metoo said:
The 2016 polls failure in my view had to do with the silent support for Trump but probably not so much now.
I think the silent support is a lot larger now. The cost of being canceled is much greater now.
All things considered, I'm amazed anyone would put much faith in the polls.
"Sample size"?! "Margin of error"?! After 2016?! 
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Brian Jones
Club 27
Registered: 12/18/12
Posts: 8,732
Loc: attending Snake Church
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Re: TRUMP 2020 [Re: Metoo]
#26953836 - 09/25/20 05:56 AM (5 months, 4 days ago) |
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Quote:
Metoo said:
I completely agree with you that the real subtlety lies in the sampling and, yes, a non-answer by a selected respondent can still carry some information which may or may not end up extracted by the pollsters depending on how they process the responses. I also cannot think of a good way to quantify how much predictive power error all this introduces into the process. All I am saying is that I somehow had thought that the famed "margin of error" the journos talk about is more than a one-upon-sqrt-of-the-sample-size trivial calc.
The 2016 polls failure in my view had to do with the silent support for Trump but probably not so much now. In any case that was not my point - I only shared how inadequate this "margin of error" construct is in helping up assess the predictive power of polls. A global warming poll taken among 1000 people leaving a Greenpeace convention will still have a 3.2% "margin of error" despite being a joke.
EDIT - in terms of reflecting the mood of the population at large that is
I actually haven't seen a nonscientific survey that ever mentioned a margin of error. If they are then yeah, that's a joke,
I don't think what happened in 2016 was as big a polling error as others make it out to be. As far as I remember, they were only doing national surveys, and regardless of what criticisms could be presented for each specific survey, they weren't wrong; Hillary won the popular vote by 3 million. Their mistake was projecting that she would win the election.
So people are supposed to learn from their mistakes. In this election cycle everyone knows that 38-40 states are irrelevant. So now they are still doing some national numbers, but realizing with the peculiarities of the electoral college, Biden needs a big national edge to win the election, but that's still a stupid way to predict. So they are concentrating on states that are contested. In every state that was assumed to be contested, Biden is leading in all by good margins, or all but one considering one outlier poll. In addition, Biden is leading or in a dead heat in several states that were considered red. That's why I have been taking every $ bet I could get on Biden since March. I have seen nothing since then to make me lose confidence.
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"The Rolling Stones will break up over Brian Jones' dead body" John Lennon
I don't want no commies in my car. No Christians either.
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Brian Jones
Club 27
Registered: 12/18/12
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Loc: attending Snake Church
Last seen: 8 hours, 33 minutes
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So Republicans are coming out of the woodwork in favor of peaceful transition after the election. When was the last time somebody's own party gave up on them with almost a week left in September in an election year.
I think Republicans want Trump to lose more than Democrats do. They want that Supreme Court pick and then GTFO Trumpy.
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"The Rolling Stones will break up over Brian Jones' dead body" John Lennon
I don't want no commies in my car. No Christians either.
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SirTripAlot
Semper Fidelis
Registered: 01/11/05
Posts: 5,786
Loc: Harmless (Mostly)
Last seen: 3 days, 5 hours
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Quote:
christopera said:
Joe could go on stage and make arm pit fart noises for 3 hours and it wouldn't matter. That's how tired people are of Trump.
I dont know about that. These debates have the highest stakes that I can remember. If Joe fucks up big time, Trump could take it still. Granted, he would need a senile fueled stutter for each question.
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“I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing.
Only I will remain.”
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SirTripAlot
Semper Fidelis
Registered: 01/11/05
Posts: 5,786
Loc: Harmless (Mostly)
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If Trump loses, it should be the death of the Repubes (hopefully), dont see how they still become relevant.
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“I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing.
Only I will remain.”
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Falcon91Wolvrn03
Stranger
Registered: 03/16/05
Posts: 26,005
Loc: California, US
Last seen: 20 days, 9 hours
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Quote:
SirTripAlot said:
These debates have the highest stakes that I can remember. If Joe fucks up big time, Trump could take it still. Granted, he would need a senile fueled stutter for each question.
Pelosi is saying Biden shouldn't debate:
https://twitter.com/tomselliott/status/1309470091667439616
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I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them. People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.
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SirTripAlot
Semper Fidelis
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Last seen: 3 days, 5 hours
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"The president has no fidelity to fact or truth"
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Thats right, shouldnt debate people that lie! That way, they can continue unabated.
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“I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing.
Only I will remain.”
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koods
Ribbit
Registered: 05/27/11
Posts: 87,400
Loc: Maryland/DC Burbs
Last seen: 33 minutes, 27 seconds
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Quote:
Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:
Quote:
SirTripAlot said:
These debates have the highest stakes that I can remember. If Joe fucks up big time, Trump could take it still. Granted, he would need a senile fueled stutter for each question.
Pelosi is saying Biden shouldn't debate:
https://twitter.com/tomselliott/status/1309470091667439616
She’s absolutely right. Trump can lie. He can say stupid shit. He can get away with things Biden would never get away with in a debate.
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I am a violent pusher of the neo-marxist SJW agenda to destroy society.
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SirTripAlot
Semper Fidelis
Registered: 01/11/05
Posts: 5,786
Loc: Harmless (Mostly)
Last seen: 3 days, 5 hours
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Re: TRUMP 2020 [Re: koods] 2
#26954574 - 09/25/20 04:24 PM (5 months, 4 days ago) |
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Thats a pussy position. President of the US should be able to counter lies and deception. Biden knows if he doesn't show, he will lose the election....due to the aforementioned.
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“I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing.
Only I will remain.”
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Falcon91Wolvrn03
Stranger
Registered: 03/16/05
Posts: 26,005
Loc: California, US
Last seen: 20 days, 9 hours
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Quote:
SirTripAlot said:
"The president has no fidelity to fact or truth"
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Thats right, shouldnt debate people that lie! That way, they can continue unabated.
Do I detect sarcasm? 
I'm never quite sure because some people here are as gullible as koods is in buying Pelosi's excuse, even though we now have fact checkers for all Presidential debates, because all Presidential candidates tend to lie.
Edit: Yes, your follow up post shows you were being sarcastic. 
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I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them. People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.
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koods
Ribbit
Registered: 05/27/11
Posts: 87,400
Loc: Maryland/DC Burbs
Last seen: 33 minutes, 27 seconds
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Quote:
SirTripAlot said:
Thats a pussy position. President of the US should be able to counter lies and deception. Biden knows if he doesn't show, he will lose the election....due to the aforementioned.
Why would you think Biden won’t show?
Donald Trump is the only politician I can think of who hasnt shown up for a debate
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I am a violent pusher of the neo-marxist SJW agenda to destroy society.
Edited by koods (09/25/20 04:45 PM)
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koods
Ribbit
Registered: 05/27/11
Posts: 87,400
Loc: Maryland/DC Burbs
Last seen: 33 minutes, 27 seconds
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Re: TRUMP 2020 [Re: koods] 1
#26954620 - 09/25/20 04:50 PM (5 months, 4 days ago) |
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Quote:
koods said:
Quote:
SirTripAlot said:
Thats a pussy position. President of the US should be able to counter lies and deception. Biden knows if he doesn't show, he will lose the election....due to the aforementioned.
Why would you think Biden won’t show?
Donald Trump is the only politician I can think of who hasnt shown up for a debate
And this is exactly what I’m talking about. We are talking about how horrible it would be if Biden didn’t show up for a debate, despite there being no reason to believe this will happen while ignoring the fact that Donald Trump is the person with a history of not showing up for debates. What a fucking joke.
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I am a violent pusher of the neo-marxist SJW agenda to destroy society.
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koods
Ribbit
Registered: 05/27/11
Posts: 87,400
Loc: Maryland/DC Burbs
Last seen: 33 minutes, 27 seconds
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Quote:
SirTripAlot said:
Thats a pussy position. President of the US should be able to counter lies and deception. Biden knows if he doesn't show, he will lose the election....due to the aforementioned.
Donald Trump skipped a debate because he said the moderator wouldn’t be fair.
Biden isn’t skipping the debate like Trump has done. This conversation is ridiculous
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I am a violent pusher of the neo-marxist SJW agenda to destroy society.
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Falcon91Wolvrn03
Stranger
Registered: 03/16/05
Posts: 26,005
Loc: California, US
Last seen: 20 days, 9 hours
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Re: TRUMP 2020 [Re: koods] 1
#26954674 - 09/25/20 05:26 PM (5 months, 4 days ago) |
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Quote:
koods said:
Donald Trump skipped a debate because he said the moderator wouldn’t be fair.
Biden isn’t skipping the debate like Trump has done. This conversation is ridiculous
You think the moderators aren't going to be fair to Biden? 
That's why Joe Rogan was brought up in the Biden thread; because he'd be a LOT more fair to both sides than the establishment moderators.
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I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them. People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.
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koods
Ribbit
Registered: 05/27/11
Posts: 87,400
Loc: Maryland/DC Burbs
Last seen: 33 minutes, 27 seconds
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The first moderator is Chris Wallace from Fox News
Regardless, you aren’t going to see Biden whining about unfair moderators like trump does. All trump does is whine about people being unfair to him.
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I am a violent pusher of the neo-marxist SJW agenda to destroy society.
Edited by koods (09/25/20 05:52 PM)
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Falcon91Wolvrn03
Stranger
Registered: 03/16/05
Posts: 26,005
Loc: California, US
Last seen: 20 days, 9 hours
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Re: TRUMP 2020 [Re: koods]
#26954735 - 09/25/20 06:13 PM (5 months, 4 days ago) |
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Of course it's Chris Wallace.
Chris Wallace, Trump’s Least Favorite Fox News Anchor, Will Moderate First Presidential Debate
Did you think they were going to give him Sean Hannity?
Of course, neither would be good. Someone more neutral would be best.
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I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them. People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.
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koods
Ribbit
Registered: 05/27/11
Posts: 87,400
Loc: Maryland/DC Burbs
Last seen: 33 minutes, 27 seconds
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Who is Biden’s least favorite anchor?
Oh wait there isn’t one because Biden isn’t a whiny little bitch
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I am a violent pusher of the neo-marxist SJW agenda to destroy society.
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