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CIA predicts break-up of Russia within 10 years
    #2625775 - 05/01/04 11:54 AM (19 years, 4 months ago)

CIA angers Russia by predicting break-up of state within 10 years

By Andrew Osborn in Moscow
30 April 2004

Russia's political elite has been stung by a recently declassified CIA report that suggests the world's largest country could fall apart at the seams in a decade and split into as many as eight different states.

The report, Global Trends 2015, has sparked a lively debate in Russia about the country's territorial integrity and triggered passionate denunciations from some of Russia's leading politicians. Its unflinchingly bleak assessment of Russia's prospects has angered many at a time when the Russian government is doing its best to talk up the economy.

The fact that the gloomy prognosis comes from its old Cold War enemy makes it all the harder for Russia to swallow. But many ordinary Russians seem to share the CIA's pessimism.

An opinion poll conducted by radio station Ekho Moskvy earlier this week revealed that 71 per cent of those surveyed (3,380 people) thought that the disintegration of the motherland was a "real threat".

Yesterday's Komsomolskaya Pravda newspaper printed a map for its readers showing how Russia might look by 2015 if the CIA is right. It showed Siberia broken up into four different countries, with western Russia similarly partitioned.

It is not for nothing that president Vladimir Putin's party is called United Russia. According to the CIA, some of Russia's eastern regions are so rich in natural resources such as oil and gas that they will opt to break away from Moscow, which they have long accused of poor governance.

Komsomolskaya Pravda was dismissive of the report. "Either the CIA has super perspicacious analysts who can see what mortal Russians, including politicians and political scientists, cannot, or someone has got it wrong," it said.

Boris Gryzlov, the speaker of the Russian parliament, said: "I completely reject the possibility of Russia breaking up.

"Over the past four years, a lot has been done to strengthen vertical power and legislation in the constituent parts of the Russian Federation was brought into line with the constitution a long time ago."

According to the CIA report, a falling birth rate meant that the country's population was likely to decline to 130 million by 2015 from 146 million today. It also painted a picture of Russia as a terminally ill patient.

"The Soviet economic inheritance will continue to plague Russia," the report said. "Besides a crumbling physical infrastructure, years of environmental neglect are taking a toll on the population, a toll made worse by such societal costs of transition as alcoholism, cardiac diseases, drugs and a worsening health delivery system. Russia's population is not only getting smaller, but it is becoming less and less healthy and less able to serve as an engine of economic recover."

Dmitry Orlov, the director of Russia's political and economic communications agency, claimed the CIA had an ulterior motive. "The conservative wing of the American Republican party is interested in the maximum weakening of Russia's position and maybe even in its fragmentation," Mr Orlov told the Izvestia newspaper

CIA Report of Global Trends


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Re: CIA predicts break-up of Russia within 10 years [Re: ivi]
    #2625904 - 05/01/04 12:30 PM (19 years, 4 months ago)

I remember when CIA predicted the break-up of Yugoslavia.
We thought that they're either mad or stupid. After all, the nations of Yugoslavia lived in "eternal brotherhood" at that time.

But unfortunately they were right.

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Re: CIA predicts break-up of Russia within 10 years [Re: ivi]
    #2627542 - 05/02/04 10:10 AM (19 years, 4 months ago)

Russia needs to be broken up, the government doesn't know what the fuck its doing. I just want the area around Moscow to still be Russia since I was born in Moscow. Those fuckers better not rename that region where moscow is.



"And I don't care if he was handcuffed
Then shot in his head
All I know is dead bodies
Can't fuck with me again"

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Re: CIA predicts break-up of Russia within 10 years [Re: ivi]
    #19940065 - 05/04/14 12:47 PM (9 years, 4 months ago)


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Re: CIA predicts break-up of Russia within 10 years [Re: ivi]
    #19940478 - 05/04/14 02:12 PM (9 years, 4 months ago)

The soviet union was cobbled together by force. It fell apart because there was no real reason for it to be together except to create an empire for the soviets. There are many different ethnic groups in russia, in most areas they are minorities but in other areas they are in the majority. Those areas with majority ethnic populations will likely break away.

USA could break up too, it almost did in the 1800's. But we are by and large one ethnic group and the other ethnicities are spread out, not concentrated in one spot. The thing that might force another breakup is overreaching federal control. They had to scramble to demonize bundy to contain the unrest before it spread.

“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

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Re: CIA predicts break-up of Russia within 10 years [Re: ivi]
    #20117868 - 06/12/14 03:41 AM (9 years, 3 months ago)

This is kind of silly. It like pointing out that Texas would be more prosperous and generally better off as its own country. Of course its true but the central government will not allow secession. Not many countries allow regions to seceed. Traditionally thats how a lot of civil wars (including the American civil war) start.

"If the foundations be destroyed, what can the righteous do."-King Solomon

And there was war in heaven: Michael and his angels fought against the dragon; and the dragon fought and his angels,

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