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General Interest > Philosophy, Sociology & Psychology
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Hunches, Intuition, Gut Feelings and Poker
    #13875414 -

Was playing Omaha last week when I had a very strong hand and went all-in. All folded except for one player who called. He had two outs. (2 cards in the deck out of 46 unseen cards that would give him a winner or a 4% chance of winning.)

He hit his card and took half my stack. I asked how he could call against such long odds. He replied with a smile, "I had a feeling." He gave up his whole stack 20 minutes later while I went on to place third.

Point of this story: Intuition is always backward-looking confimation bias.

How do you think the losing player mentally framed his loss?


--------------------

Edited by OrgoneConclusion (01/30/11 11:43 AM)

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Re: Hunches, Intuition, Gut Feelings and Poker [Re: OrgoneConclusion]
    #13875571 -

Was playing Obama last week

I had no idea you played with such low brows.


--------------------
"Don't believe everything you think". -Anom.

" All that lives was born to die"-Anom.

With much wisdom comes much sorrow,
The more knowledge, the more grief.
Ecclesiastes circa 350 BC

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Re: Hunches, Intuition, Gut Feelings and Poker [Re: Icelander]
    #13875687 -

I see what you did there. :nono:


--------------------

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Re: Hunches, Intuition, Gut Feelings and Poker [Re: OrgoneConclusion]
    #13875737 -

Maybe you're trying to rationalize not being in first place as only bad luck?


--------------------
See my shadow changing,
Stretching up and over me.
Soften this old armor.
Hoping I can clear the way
By stepping through my shadow,
Coming out the other side.
Step into the shadow.
Forty six and two are just ahead of me.

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Re: Hunches, Intuition, Gut Feelings and Poker [Re: OrgoneConclusion]
    #13875742 -

OrgoneConclusion said:
How do you think the losing player mentally framed his loss?


He had an unlucky day.


--------------------
Lois, this family believes in the Easter Bunny.  He died for our sins in that helicopter crash.  Now, if you wanna go to hell, that's fine, but don't drag the rest of us down with you like a mentally handicapped rooster.
- Peter Griffin (Family Guy)

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Re: Hunches, Intuition, Gut Feelings and Poker [Re: OrgoneConclusion]
    #13876246 -

OrgoneConclusion said:
Was playing Omaha last week when I had a very strong hand and went all-in. All folded except for one player who called. He had two outs. (2 cards in the deck out of 46 unseen cards that would give him a winner or a 4% chance of winning.)

He hit his card and took half my stack. I asked how he could call against such long odds. He replied with a smile, "I had a feeling." He gave up his whole stack 20 minutes later while I went on to place third.

Point of this story: Intuition is always backward-looking confimation bias.

How do you think the losing player mentally framed his loss?



" You win some, you lose some '. Such resignation does not fit with the playing hunches approach he had earlier displayed.

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Re: Hunches, Intuition, Gut Feelings and Poker [Re: OrgoneConclusion]
    #13876312 -

I really don't know either man, I play a lot of online poker and you just can't play by the book because people do such amazingly stupid things..

Say the blind is 1k and you raise to 8k pre flop.  You expect someone with a hand like 5 7 to fold but they don't.  The flop comes 5 5 A and you hit your A but some fucking asshole who just HAS to call EVERYTHING has got you beat.  He makes a quick buck while you suffer and he loses it within 20 minutes.  Meanwhile you have to spend 2 hours making it back by the book.

Poker is generally just about luck.  People would rather play slots than play a mind game.

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Re: Hunches, Intuition, Gut Feelings and Poker [Re: Midnight_Toker]
    #13876404 -

Poker is generally just about luck.

What?


--------------------
"Don't believe everything you think". -Anom.

" All that lives was born to die"-Anom.

With much wisdom comes much sorrow,
The more knowledge, the more grief.
Ecclesiastes circa 350 BC

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Re: Hunches, Intuition, Gut Feelings and Poker [Re: Icelander]
    #13876428 -

Quote:
You expect someone with a hand like 5 7 to fold but they don't.  The flop comes 5 5 A and you hit your A but some fucking asshole who just HAS to call EVERYTHING has got you beat


he was probably planning on bluffing then just turned out lucky, seeing how bluffing is usually a big part of poker


--------------------
Over thinking, over analyzing separates the body from the mind
Withering my intuition, missing opportunities and I must
Feed my will to feel my moment drawing way outside the lines

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Re: Hunches, Intuition, Gut Feelings and Poker [Re: bigmike7104]
    #13876767 -

Quote:
Poker is generally just about luck.


:lol: No.

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Re: Hunches, Intuition, Gut Feelings and Poker [Re: Tropism]
    #13877162 -

Tropism said:
Quote:
Poker is generally just about luck.


:lol: No.


I know it's not about luck, I was implying most people just play their luck and don't care about the math/odds involved.

And no they don't call with 5 7 with the intent to bluff they call because they can't bring themselves to fold no matter what.  It's like putting a 'don't push this button' sign on the call button lol.  It has the opposite effect.

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