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A Stock Market Post-Mortem
    #6871371 -

"There's class warfare, all right, but it's my class that's winning."

--Investment tycoon, Warren Buffett



Quote:
The real estate market is crashing faster than anyone had anticipated. Housing prices have fallen in 17 of 20 of the nation's largest cities and the trend lines indicate that the worst is yet to come. March sales of new homes plummeted by a record 23.5% (year over year) removing all hope for a quick rebound. Problems in the subprime and Alt-A loans are mushrooming in previously "hot markets" resulting in an unprecedented number of foreclosures. The defaults have slowed demand for new homes and increased the glut of houses already on the market. This is putting additional downward pressure on prices and profits. More and more builders are struggling just to keep their heads above water. This isn't your typical 1980s-type "correction"; it's a full-blown real estate cyclone smashing everything in its path.

Tremors from the real estate earthquake won't be limited to housing--they will rumble through all areas of the economy including the stock market, financial sector and currency trading. There is simply no way to minimize the effects of a bursting $4.5 trillion equity bubble.

The reason the stock market is flying-high is because the Federal Reserve has been ginning up the money supply to avoid a Chernobyl-type meltdown. All that new funny-money has to go somewhere, so a lot of it winds up in the stock market.

But then that's the plan---to shift zillions from one class to another through massive equity bubbles. All it takes is artificially-low interest rates and a can of WD-40 to keep the printing presses rolling. It's so simple we won't dignify it by calling it a "conspiracy". It's just a swindle, pure and simple. But it never fails.

Every time the Fed prints up another batch of crisp $100 bills; they're confiscating the hard-earned savings of working class people and retirees. And, since the dollar has dropped roughly 40% since Bush took office in 2000; the government has absconded with 40% our life savings.

That's the truth about inflation; it is taxation without representation, but you won't find that in the government's statistics. In fact, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) deliberately factors out food and energy so the working guy can't see how the Fed is robbing him blind. The only way he can gauge his losses is by going to the grocery store or gas station. That's when he can see for himself that the money he works so hard to earn is steadily losing its purchasing power.




http://www.counterpunch.org/whitney05032007.html

Looks like we are in for a storm. I'm so glad the govt has our best interests at heart :rolleyes:


--------------------
"Government big enough to provide you with all you need is also big enough to take everything you have." ~ Thomas Jefferson

"Without stupid, faggy potheads we wouldn't have wars." - Zappa

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Re: A Stock Market Post-Mortem [Re: RosettaStoned]
    #6871538 -

Quote:
The real estate market is crashing faster than anyone had anticipated.



People have been anticipating this for a while.

Quote:
And, since the dollar has dropped roughly 40% since Bush took office in 2000; the government has absconded with 40% our life savings.



This is quite misleading. There hasn't been 40% inflation in the last few years; the price of the dollar has fallen 40% against some other currency (probably the Euro). This is a result of falling demand for the dollar worldwide, and not the result of an excess in supply.
In addition, people complain about losing manufacturing jobs overseas. The reason people lose these jobs is that the dollar is more valuable than the goods people can produce here; a falling dollar will drive up the cost of imports and increase the appeal of American exports, leading (in the med-long term) to more American manufacturing jobs.

It's true that part of inflation is driven by production of dollars - since the supply always increases slightly more than demand (as long as the Fed gets it right), the price always falls. This is intentional, because moderate inflation keeps the economy moving (who will sit on their dollars when they just lose value? It forces you to invest or spend, rather than burying your wealth) - and it's also an invisible tax, which is always nice (for the politicians).
However, a lot of inflation - particularly in energy prices - is driven by the limited supply of natural resources. It doesn't matter what the dollar does, the price of oil will continue to increase -> for ever <-. I doubt this will be an apocalyptic catastrophe, but it does mean that prices will increase in real terms - in other words, if you're struggling right now, things are likely to get worse.

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Re: A Stock Market Post-Mortem [Re: phi1618]
    #6872053 -

There hasn't been 40% inflation in the last few years; the price of the dollar has fallen 40% against some other currency (probably the Euro). This is a result of falling demand for the dollar worldwide, and not the result of an excess in supply.

The Fed has pumped up the money supply. It used to be public knowledge how much new money they were printing. Now it is secret. They could have doubled it AGAIN since Bush came in and we wouldn't know.


--------------------
TAO

but really, fish noodles

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Re: A Stock Market Post-Mortem [Re: RosettaStoned]
    #6873154 -

how does a stock market have a meltdown that is "chernobyl-type"?


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Re: A Stock Market Post-Mortem [Re: EsKregg]
    #6892302 -

EsKregg said:
The Fed has pumped up the money supply. It used to be public knowledge how much new money they were printing. Now it is secret. They could have doubled it AGAIN since Bush came in and we wouldn't know.



Egads! It appears I returned just in time.

The money supply isn't a secret at all. The only part of the money supply that isn't reported any longer is M3, which consisted of long-term deposits (i.e. money that isn't in circulation). However, M2 and M1 (money that is in circulation), are both still reported regularly by the Federal Reserve (you can get the figures on their website, I'd post a link but people get funny on here about dot-gov links).

Furthermore, if you take a look at how the Federal Reserve sets the interest rate, (the process is referred to as an "open market operation" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_market_operations ) you see that they actually set interest rates by manipulating the money supply, *not* by fiat.

As a result, fluctuations in the money supply will result in massive fluctuations in the primary interest rates, which will eventually trickle out to all other interest rates (home loans, credit cards, etc.)

If the Fed had actually manipulated the money supply in the manner suggested here, we'd all see massivley crashing interest rates. Instead, anyone paying a variable credit card knows that interest rates remain high, and thus the Fed is not actually changing the money supply.

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Re: A Stock Market Post-Mortem [Re: Economist]
    #6893879 -

Economist said:
....I'd post a link but people get funny on here about dot-gov links).



If people do then they are fucking morons - the Shroomery automatically sends these links through an anonymous redirection website. Anyone who is concerned can actually check the link instead of jumping to brazen assumptions. Please post the link. :smile:


--------------------
:redpanda:
If I should die this very moment
I wouldn't fear
For I've never known completeness
Like being here
Wrapped in the warmth of you
Loving every breath of you

:heartpump: :bunnyhug: :yinyang:

:yinyang: :levitate: :earth: :levitate: :yinyang:

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Re: A Stock Market Post-Mortem [Re: fireworks_god]
    #6894546 -

fireworks_god said:
If people do then they are fucking morons - the Shroomery automatically sends these links through an anonymous redirection website. Anyone who is concerned can actually check the link instead of jumping to brazen assumptions. Please post the link.



Wow, I'm gone for two months and everyhting gets better, I love this place.

The link to the reported money stock measures is here:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/

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Re: A Stock Market Post-Mortem [Re: Economist]
    #6894577 -

Its been set up that way for longer than two months, but I'm sure not everyone has been aware of it. Hovering over the link or editing one's post to see the code for the link will reveal that the actual link includes the redirection - it simply doesn't add it to the text. :smile:


--------------------
:redpanda:
If I should die this very moment
I wouldn't fear
For I've never known completeness
Like being here
Wrapped in the warmth of you
Loving every breath of you

:heartpump: :bunnyhug: :yinyang:

:yinyang: :levitate: :earth: :levitate: :yinyang:

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