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InvisibleCJay
Dark Stranger
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Registered: 02/02/04
Posts: 931
Loc: Riding a bassline
Resistance movement militia numbers 200,000...and they want us out
    #3607313 - 01/10/05 12:08 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

oh dear....Mr Allawi said he didn't tolerate this kind of stuff...looks like he's being seriously overwhelmed!
---the blunder continues---
-------

A Victory for Terror
By BERNHARD ZAND,
Der Spiegel

Published: January 10, 2005


ashington and Baghdad are still sticking to plans to hold Iraqi elections at the end of January. In light of increasing attacks and calls for postponing the election, however, interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi is getting nervous. Even influential tribal leaders are now yielding to Islamic fundamentalists as open war rages around Baghdad.

It was an astonishing figure, even for Iraqis. Last week the head of Iraqi intelligence, Mohammed Shahwani, reported that the Iraqi terrorist and resistance movement numbered 200,000. The figure, according to Shahwani, includes about 40,000 bomb experts and sharpshooters, as well as 160,000 part-time guerillas and supporters who are harboring resistance fighters and terrorists and providing them with logistics services.

The 150,000 US troops stationed along the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers face a powerful combat force -- 20 divisions, motivated to the core, and apparently able to claim seemingly unlimited recruitment capabilities.

No one at the Pentagon has denied General Shahwani's numbers, even though they exceed Washington's previous estimates by a factor of about ten. According to US military expert Anthony Cordesman, the numbers coming from Baghdad are realistic. Cordesman believes that they confirm something that the Pentagon has consistently denied -- that the resistance movement in central Iraq now enjoys "broad support" among the population.

A few weeks ago, interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi warned that the Iraqi government expects the violence to increase leading up to the planned Jan. 30 elections. Despite these expectations, Allawi's nerves and the confidence of his administration have been shaken by what has been happening in Iraq's Sunni triangle, even though events in Iraq have been somewhat overshadowed by news from South and Southeast Asia. The number of attacks has been consistently on the rise, with more than 200 casualties within the past three weeks. More than 80 police officers have already been killed in the new year. Another high-ranking administration official, the governor of Baghdad province, Ali al-Haidari, was assassinated only last Tuesday.

Attacks on election workers have become increasingly targeted and extraordinarily cold-blooded. Without even bothering to conceal their faces, terrorists allowed themselves to be filmed in broad daylight during an execution in Baghdad's Haifa district in late December. Since then, hundreds of election workers in Mosul and in Anbar province have simply abandoned their positions. Allawi, who had declared 15 of Iraq's 18 provinces to be "stable and peaceful" during his last visit to Washington in September, appears to have abandoned his illusions, now referring to the security situation in Iraq as "our catastrophe." Last Thursday, he extended the state of emergency in Iraq until early February.

Election obstacles

Only three days earlier, Allawi had telephoned US President George W. Bush, who had just returned to the White House to celebrate Christmas. It was an emergency call. Although advisors to the US president say that the purpose of the conversation was to discuss "obstacles" leading up to the election, they believe that Allawi has already resigned himself to the possibility of postponing the election.

Others in Baghdad have long since openly accepted postponement. Iraq's ministers of justice and planning have both spoken in favor of delaying the election. Last week interim Iraqi President Ghazi Al-Yawer, previously Washington's poster child of a Sunni leader committed to the election, attempted to shift responsibility to the United Nations, saying that sticking to the January date would be a "very bitter challenge," and that the UN should "examine whether or not the scheduled date is feasible."

Yawer's words brought him a call from Washington. Although little is known about the conversation, sources say President Bush, speaking to his Iraqi counterpart, "emphatically" insisted that the elections must be held at the end of January, as planned.

According to Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari, this is precisely the "official position" of his government. Nevertheless, Zebari only managed to increase confusion among Iraqis surrounding their government's official and unofficial positions on the election.

According to a high-ranking source in the US administration, while there appears to be some debate in Baghdad concerning the election, President Bush remains adamant. Bush has apparently told Allawi that his administration, after all, has managed to make good on its promises and honor its commitments, including Allawi's own assumption of office in June 2004.

A Victory for Terror


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Anonymous

Re: Resistance movement militia numbers 200,000...and they want us out [Re: CJay]
    #3607400 - 01/10/05 12:57 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

if the majority of iraqis want the us military out of their country, the fastest way to do it is for the insurgents to bury their weapons and elect a government that will represent their wishes.

the insurgents aren't stupid and they would certainly do that if not for the fact that democratic elections are unacceptable to them.


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InvisibleVvellum
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Registered: 05/24/04
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Re: Resistance movement militia numbers 200,000...and they want us out [Re: ]
    #3610717 - 01/11/05 01:53 AM (12 years, 5 months ago)

the sunnis (who the insurgents pretty much are) are the true minority. they do not want to be dominated by a shitte government. I think they are fighting the Americans now, but the long term goal is a separate sunni nation. there will be civil war in Iraq.


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Invisiblez@z.com
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Registered: 10/13/02
Posts: 2,876
Loc: ATL
Re: Resistance movement militia numbers 200,000...and they want us out [Re: Vvellum]
    #3610743 - 01/11/05 02:00 AM (12 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

bi0 said:
the sunnis (who the insurgents pretty much are) are the true minority. they do not want to be dominated by a shitte government.



I understand their sentiment completely (if not their politics). We are working so hard to set up a democracy, but a democracy is not a good thing. What they need is a government with strict constitutional controls.

"Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote!"
--Benjamin Franklin


--------------------
"Of all tyrannies, a tyranny exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It may be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end, for they do so with the approval of their own conscience." - C.S. Lewis

"I would rather be exposed to the inconveniencies attending too much liberty than to those attending too small a degree of it." - Thomas Jefferson


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Offlinezahudulallah
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Registered: 10/21/04
Posts: 10,579
Loc: Tokyo, Japan
Last seen: 12 years, 1 month
Re: Resistance movement militia numbers 200,000...and they want us out [Re: Vvellum]
    #3611111 - 01/11/05 03:15 AM (12 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

bi0 said:
the sunnis (who the insurgents pretty much are) are the true minority. they do not want to be dominated by a shitte government. I think they are fighting the Americans now, but the long term goal is a separate sunni nation. there will be civil war in Iraq.




I think Iraq will eventually be broken into 3 mini-states. No one gets along there, and Saddam was the only thing there keeping everyone from ripping each others heads off.


--------------------


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InvisibleYidakiMan
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Registered: 09/29/02
Posts: 2,023
Re: Resistance movement militia numbers 200,000...and they want us out [Re: zahudulallah]
    #3612095 - 01/11/05 12:31 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

Long before this war started I said it will fail if Iraq is not divided into several countries based on ethnicity.

Some people just aren't evolved enough to live peacefully in a democratic society with other people who disagree with them.

The middle east seems to have a large amount of those people, (Israel included).


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InvisibleCJay
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Registered: 02/02/04
Posts: 931
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Re: Resistance movement militia numbers 200,000...and they want us out [Re: YidakiMan]
    #3612131 - 01/11/05 12:43 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

very interesting and perceptive thoughts guys - thanks for that :smile:


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