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Re: Blind's in, so check or call? [Re: Frog]
    #3437614 -

Not necessarily true.

On the flip of a coin, no matter how many times you flip it, heads will come up 1/2 the time, and tails will come up the other 1/2 of the time.

I think what he means is that a statistical anomaly, like 2 heads in a row, is very probable given such few iterations, but an anomaly like 20 heads in a row is very unlikely given the comparatively larger number of iterations.

The larger the pool of samples, the more closely it's likely to conform with statistical expectations.

It's a valid point, and the only reasonable argument, IMO, against Swami's.

But I'd still go for the $1 million any day. It's how I've lived my life, and it's worked pretty well for me so far.  :thumbup:

Edited by Diploid (12/02/04 03:33 PM)

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Re: Blind's in, so check or call? [Re: Diploid]
    #3437679 -

Diploid no its not. It is not near the same bet. IF you look at to scale, it might be poerportionatly the same, but an easy 10$ is far different then an easy 100,000. Man I blow 10$ on weed and forget about it by a day or 2. At the same time option b would pay for college loans... (and again for emphasis) option b would pay for college loans. (option c, could, but I suppose I am not a risk seeking individual).

I like waht swami has to say about making that choice a lot in smaller circumstances. That is also not the same. A one time go at a lot of money is not the same as making that decision a lot in your life. Everyone makes those little decisions. (how many hours a week should I work??!!?, or put nicer, how much of y do i want to do, to get x.) Then if the little sum is trivial and the overall reward of taking a risk is great and you can take many of these little risks, the law of averages would make anyone take those same risks, and choose little c everyday. (if the 10 and 100 were numbers used and I stood to make an average of 10 or 50, of course I could afford to take the risk and gamble for the 100 everytime)
This scale is not the case in the original questrion for everyone though.

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Re: Blind's in, so check or call? [Re: RedEyeSamurai]
    #3437716 -

lol ok i can see that mathematically im in the wrong here.

in all honesty though, if some random hero came up to you on the street and made you take this choice, and you chose C and lost, wouldnt you feel like a total moron? and maybe a greedy one at that?

now i realize that this all depends on the result and if you won, you would feel damn smart.

But imagine you lost, and got nothing. then while your standing there thinking about the tragedy of this, someone else walks up to the same guy, and the dude hands him a giant wad of 100 000 dollars and the guy says holy shit thanks man! now i can buy a car and a house! and osme drugs and clothes and ....


to me its clear, but different minds...


--------------------


Everything I post is fiction.

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Re: Blind's in, so check or call? [Re: Diploid]
    #3439089 -

I understand what you are saying (I knew there was going to be a trick), but the amounts in question are vastly different. I would take a risk over $10, but not over $100,000.


--------------------
The day will come when, after harnessing the ether, the winds, the tides, gravitation, we shall harness for God the energies of love. And, on that day, for the second time in the history of the world, man will have discovered fire.  -Teilard

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Re: Blind's in, so check or call? [Re: RedEyeSamurai]
    #3440396 -

Diploid no its not. It is not near the same bet. IF you look at to scale, it might be poerportionatly the same, but an easy 10$ is far different then an easy 100,000.

I understand where you're coming from, but this is a psychological distinction you're making, not a real one.

If you had a billion dollars in your savings account, which choice would you make then?


--------------------
Republican Values:

1) You can't get married to your spouse who is the same sex as you.
2) You can't have an abortion no matter how much you don't want a child.
3) You can't have a certain plant in your possession or you'll get locked up with a rapist and a murderer.

4) We need a smaller, less-intrusive government.

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Re: Blind's in, so check or call? [Re: Frog]
    #3440429 -

I understand what you are saying (I knew there was going to be a trick), but the amounts in question are vastly different. I would take a risk over $10, but not over $100,000.

I'm not saying your choice is necessarily the wrong one, but it is a psychological one, and not in your actuarial best interests. Same goes when you 'invest' $1 in the lottery; that's a horrible investment, but people play the lottery all the time. The poorer you are, the more likely you are to play, actually, which is funny because poor people are the least able to afford bad investments.  :tongue:


--------------------
Republican Values:

1) You can't get married to your spouse who is the same sex as you.
2) You can't have an abortion no matter how much you don't want a child.
3) You can't have a certain plant in your possession or you'll get locked up with a rapist and a murderer.

4) We need a smaller, less-intrusive government.

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Re: Blind's in, so check or call? [Re: Diploid]
    #3440951 -

Interesting :thumbup:

What are actuarial best interests?

If I would consider my demand for money it would have deminishing returns.  (The more I have the less I value aditional units)

I think everything I do as well as I assume everything you and the rest of the people who read this are subject to 'a psychological distinction'. 

My actual is that I value a sure 100,000 more then I value a half chance at a million.  I think everyone that does choose option b does so for this same reason.

If I had a billion in the bank it infringes on what is true in my life and thus changes the question to me.  If I had a billion dollars I might as well choose option A  :wink:  ...or C for the maximum expected returns.

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Re: Blind's in, so check or call? [Re: RedEyeSamurai]
    #3444482 -

but it's not the same bet. there's 2 bets. one for $10/$100, and one for $100K/$1M. I weigh these bets independantly of each other against my annual income, or something like that. as mentioned before, prolly really rich people would try for the $1M.

yeah, and actually chance/statistics only becomes relevant when you look back over a bunch of stuff that already happened.

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