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Re: Blind's in, so check or call? [Re: Zekebomb]
    #3432793 -

yeah, sure, it looks nice all written out that way, but in the real world you either get $1,000,000 or you get $0. you don't get $500,000. ever. so option B becomes a pretty safe and savvy choice.

actually, I suppose in the real world you'd be hard-pressed to find someone who offers this sort of jackpot thing.

I make my living predominently by playing poker and backgammon. This is as real-world as you can get. In one game, on the next roll I was about to:

win $640 about 20% of the time

win $320 about 50% of the time

lose $320 about 30% of the time

The mathematically correct settlement was $192 to be paid to me before the roll and the game would end. My opponent offered $150. As I would be giving away 42/192 or almost 22% of my bet, I naturally declined. (Irrelevant sidenote: I won $640, but would have accepted my decision if I had lost the $320.)

This type of situation occurs in poker all the time. I can cash in a small pot by raising and driving opponents out or I can merely call (with a very strong hand) and let my opponent's stick around and draw for their hands. This increases my chance of losing the hand, but my EXPECTATION (the average dollar amount won) can go up quite a bit. This is the very ESSENCE of poker despite piss-poor movie depictions; the ART of MAXIMIZING your potential win.

What is v-e-r-y amusing to me, and the types of hands that I make my bread and butter on, are the opposite of the intial scenario. Most players (either from ignorance or stuck in ego) make the exact OPPOSITE form of error. Let's say I am playing heads-up (one against one) with a big pair against an opponent who can only beat me if he makes his flush draw on the last card. His odds of winning are roughly 1/5, therefore to correctly call my bet, the pot MUST contain about 5 times the bet amount. Let's say there is $60 in the pot and the bet is $20, most players will incorrectly call.


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The proof is in the pudding.

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Re: Blind's in, so check or call? [Re: Swami]
    #3432862 -

Then I suppose one would have to figure out the odds of picking a lucky card v. unlucky card for "C". Is it worth the gamble, though? What are the odds?


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The day will come when, after harnessing the ether, the winds, the tides, gravitation, we shall harness for God the energies of love. And, on that day, for the second time in the history of the world, man will have discovered fire.  -Teilard

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Re: Blind's in, so check or call? [Re: Frog]
    #3432930 -

just because on average one makes more money off the bet does not mean it is the sure choice, even for logical people. Some people like the risk, while others prefer the sure thing. IT just depends on the individual. Even if the odds of the mil were 50% I would probably still choose option b. 100,000 would go real far for me right now.

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Re: Blind's in, so check or call? [Re: RedEyeSamurai]
    #3432962 -

Swami, if you chose C and lost, would you wish for atleast a moment you went with B?

(all other betting aside, assume this is a one-time event)

Oh, I chose A for fun :smile:


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Re: Blind's in, so check or call? [Re: deff]
    #3433163 -

Regret is a useless emotion. Whenever I make the best possible decision with the information at hand, I am satisfied.

The other night I played one game of racquetball quite poorly and won and the next I played very well and lost. Which scenario do you think gave me the greater satisfaction?


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The proof is in the pudding.

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Re: Blind's in, so check or call? [Re: Swami]
    #3433199 -

I agree the emotion serves no purpose.

However, different people have different ideas of what the 'best possible decision' is. To some, $100k is such a huge sum of cash, that they would easily chose the security of option B, whereas others are gamblers at heart (like yourself) and go purely by the odds.

Ex- What would a homeless person pick?

..- What would a rich person pick?


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Re: Blind's in, so check or call? [Re: deff]
    #3433233 -

That's a good point, deff.  Those who need the money would probably most likely go with B.  :grin:  (Me!)

Those who have lots of money would probably take a gamble.


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The day will come when, after harnessing the ether, the winds, the tides, gravitation, we shall harness for God the energies of love. And, on that day, for the second time in the history of the world, man will have discovered fire.  -Teilard

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Re: Blind's in, so check or call? [Re: Frog]
    #3433263 -

You guys just reminded me of a show about wealthy vegas gamblers. There are these Saudis who go out there and plunk down a million dollars on One hand.

Then again, I know a woman who had millions in the bank. She reused brown paper bags, ate Campells soup for dinner every night and waited to get the nieghbors .25 cent news paper after they were done to read it instead of subscribing herself. Some people, my mom included, have zero tolerence for waste and excess beyond basic needs no matter how much money they have.

It's weird, how relative such a thing is.


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Ahuwale ka nane huna.

Edited by gettinjiggywithit (12/01/04 05:09 PM)

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Re: Blind's in, so check or call? [Re: Swami]
    #3433405 -

"Anyone choosing B is not very intelligent. "

thats bull. its not stupid to accept 100 000 dollars for absolutely no risk.

Any decision is evaluated based on risk versus reward. if the risk outweighs the reward, it is not a good decision.

In my oppinion a guaranteed 100 000 is far better than a 50% chance at more, because then you run a very real risk of getting nothing at all.

the way i see it, if i select b i will be 100% gauranteed euphoria, and end to all my immediate financial difficulties, and the ability to purchase piles of crap i want, maybe invest a few thousand in worthy charities.

if i choose C i have a 50% chance of total despair and lifelong remorse. Not that you HAVE to feel those emotions, no, but either way youll have nothing.

so to clarify your honestly saying if this ACTUALLY happend you would take C?

or is that just a paper answer?

theres a differance between logic and mathematics. In my oppinion logic is the more usefull tool in this particular question


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Everything I post is fiction.

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Re: Blind's in, so check or call? [Re: deff]
    #3433867 -

whereas others are gamblers at heart (like yourself) and go purely by the odds.

I honestly don't consider myself a gambler. If I don't feel that I have a positive expectation (i.e. the odds are in my favor), I have no desire to bet my money. When making a purely monetary choice, I will ALWAYS go with that which gives me the highest aggregate expectation.


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The proof is in the pudding.

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Re: Blind's in, so check or call? [Re: Moonshoe]
    #3433880 -

so to clarify your honestly saying if this ACTUALLY happend you would take C?

or is that just a paper answer?

I thought I already clarified this. I make my living by choosing C-type answers all the time; albeit for much smaller amounts. The logic does not change based on the amount. So no, this is not merely a paper type answer.


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The proof is in the pudding.

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Re: Blind's in, so check or call? [Re: Moonshoe]
    #3433886 -

thats bull. its not stupid to accept 100 000 dollars for absolutely no risk.

It is, if you are in essence giving up $400,000.


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The proof is in the pudding.

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Re: Blind's in, so check or call? [Re: Swami]
    #3434097 -

But Swami, you're also taking the chance that you're giving up the 100K if you don't win anything upon choosing C.

These kinds of odds aren't the same, I don't think, as the types of odds you are talking about with relation to backgammon and poker.

These odds are more like the kinds of odds when you choose heads or tails. It would seem, anyways.

100K for sure v. maybe, maybe not.

???


--------------------
The day will come when, after harnessing the ether, the winds, the tides, gravitation, we shall harness for God the energies of love. And, on that day, for the second time in the history of the world, man will have discovered fire.  -Teilard

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Re: Blind's in, so check or call? [Re: Frog]
    #3434817 -

100K for sure v. maybe, maybe not.

Frog, which bet would you take if it was $10 for sure vs. $100 maybe, maybe not?


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Republican Values:

1) You can't get married to your spouse who is the same sex as you.
2) You can't have an abortion no matter how much you don't want a child.
3) You can't have a certain plant in your possession or you'll get locked up with a rapist and a murderer.

4) We need a smaller, less-intrusive government.

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Re: Blind's in, so check or call? [Re: Diploid]
    #3435181 -

Well, in that case, I would try for the $100. $10.00 will buy my kids a couple of happy meals at McDonalds. They can skip that, so I don't mind if I don't have a "for sure" $10 in hand. Therefore, this means I stand a chance to win $100. And if I don't win it, no big deal.

This isn't a trick question, is it???


--------------------
The day will come when, after harnessing the ether, the winds, the tides, gravitation, we shall harness for God the energies of love. And, on that day, for the second time in the history of the world, man will have discovered fire.  -Teilard

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Re: Blind's in, so check or call? [Re: Frog]
    #3435767 -

I think Swami's logic holds true when applied to poker, because poker is a specific way of approaching these chance-type systems---in fact, poker has a big element of skill attached. Whereas this one-time card-flipping jackpot offer involves no skill unless you plan on utilizing latent ESP powers. also, poker is played in a series of games, and the mathematical average risk appraising technique thingy becomes more and more effective (and relevant) over more and more games.

Swami's logic is sound, not that I understand poker to such a degree, but the logic must flex when applied in different universes. er whatever

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Re: Blind's in, so check or call? [Re: Zekebomb]
    #3435800 -

Zekebomb said:
this one-time card-flipping jackpot offer involves no skill unless you plan on utilizing latent ESP powers.


And that's what I am talking about with regard to "what's behind door number 3" or "C". There's no skill involved. It's all luck. Or, "no luck", depending on whether you get, well, lucky or not.


--------------------
The day will come when, after harnessing the ether, the winds, the tides, gravitation, we shall harness for God the energies of love. And, on that day, for the second time in the history of the world, man will have discovered fire.  -Teilard

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Re: Blind's in, so check or call? [Re: Frog]
    #3435821 -

chance becomes relevant over repeated iterations

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Re: Blind's in, so check or call? [Re: Zekebomb]
    #3435837 -

Not necessarily true.

On the flip of a coin, no matter how many times you flip it, heads will come up 1/2 the time, and tails will come up the other 1/2 of the time.

Each time you flip the coin, no matter how many times you flip it, you have a 1/2 chance in will come up heads, and a 1/2 chance it will come up tails.

Just in case the "1/2" isn't clear: You have a 50/50 chance it will be heads, and a 50/50 chance it will be tails. This is true regardless of how many times you flip the damned coin.


--------------------
The day will come when, after harnessing the ether, the winds, the tides, gravitation, we shall harness for God the energies of love. And, on that day, for the second time in the history of the world, man will have discovered fire.  -Teilard

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Re: Blind's in, so check or call? [Re: Frog]
    #3437581 -

Well, in that case, I would try for the $100.

Do you recognize that, acuarially speaking, this is the same bet as the $100K/$1M bet?


--------------------
Republican Values:

1) You can't get married to your spouse who is the same sex as you.
2) You can't have an abortion no matter how much you don't want a child.
3) You can't have a certain plant in your possession or you'll get locked up with a rapist and a murderer.

4) We need a smaller, less-intrusive government.

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