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Self-replicating production facilities: What would their impact be?
    #3396500 -

http://wikisource.org/wiki/Advanced_Automation_for_Space_Missions:Chapter_5.3#Universal_constructor.

Here is a study done by NASA in 1980 on the issue of automation in space. Section 5 goes into detail about self-replicating production systems. One of their conclusions was "The basic concept of physical machine systems capable of self-replication appears credible both from a theoretical and a practical engineering standpoint. "


Remember, this is over 20 years ago. Feasability has to have improved since then.

The study focuses on complete self-replication from naturally ocurring resources found on the moon. A considerably easier goal that is mentioned is a terrestrial based system that is fed refined feedstocks, and some pre-fabricated components such as IC chips and other parts that would require a much larger system in order for the system to be able to provide all components.


I predict that within our lifetimes there will be self-replicating systems that will cost less than $10,000 to replicate, and will be the equivalent of hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of modern machinery.

This system will not only be able to produce a copy of itself, but also almost any other fabricated product as well. Houses, boats, cars, electric razors, digital watches, stereos, lamps, guns, refrigerators, dishwashers, personal mechanical assistants, and calculators will become items that can be downloaded much like the latest Brittany Spears album is today. Final cost to the user will be just a hair over the cost of the materials needed to build.

Want a brand new bootlegged Ferrari? Just download the program and go down to the junkyard and buy a couple old junkers for a couple hundred bucks. The machine will strip the old vehicles and refine the materials into the raw materials needed to build your brand new Ferrari.


You'll have to be patient though. One complete system working alone will probably take a month or two to finish the job. Multiple systems can work together to finish a job much quicker.



What impact would this have on the world?

Would it usher in a new age of prosperity, or put everyone out of work and bring civilization to a grinding halt?

The first thing that comes to my mind is that there will be an explosion of cheap technology all over the world which will result in a gigantic energy crisis. The entire world will be consuming resources at the rate that America and the rest of the industrialized world does today.


That means global energy consumption will probably skyrocket to approximately ten times what it is today.

Not good.


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https://www.gofundme.com/f/support-for-renee-goods-wife-and-son

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Re: Self-replicating production facilities: What would their impact be? [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #3398747 -

youve got to be out of your mind to produce machines that are capable of producing other machines... didnt u see irobot!!!!

i think self-replicating machina will be a jump to the end of the world, and once computers/machines/production facilities become as intelligent as humans, they will instinateously(sp) become smarter then humans, and realize they are the next evolutionary step, and that humans will just try to impede true progress.

machines are inherently evil!


although it will be very nice being able to feed a machine the raw materials it needs and give it a schematic of a house and it poops it out the other end. i think before it has a chance to be beneficial it will cause extremely nasty military robots to come and conquer the human race.


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"A human being is part of a whole, called by us the Universe, a part limited in time and space. He experiences himself, his thoughts and feelings, as something separated from the rest--a kind of optical delusion of his consciousness. This delusion is a kind of prison for us, restricting us to our personal desires and to affection for a few persons nearest us. Our task must be to free ourselves from this prison by widening our circles of compassion to embrace all living creatures and the whole of nature in its beauty."
-Al Einstein

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Re: Self-replicating production facilities: What would their impact be? [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #3399330 -

Self-replicating machines scare me (well, not really).

We are already toying with disaster by releasing genetically altered organisms which are self-replicating...if we were to introduce a new type of self-replicating system to our environment who knows what the repercussions would be?

This is something that I am sure will happen in the future. I can only hope that we hold it off long enough to have an appreciation of what our decision will entail. Because the moment we create a self-replicating machine we run the risk of losing control of that machine.

Good time to bring this up, B_H! I just finished reading "Prey" by Michael Crichton this afternoon. It deals with with this exact topic: self-reproducing machines (nano-robots, in the story).


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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free.
But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.

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Re: Self-replicating production facilities: What would their impact be? [Re: trendal]
    #3399462 -

Just to be clear,I want to establish that this is about normal scale machines. The system would be comprised of things such as actuators, solenoids, lathes, extruders, metal molds, welding arms, wires, etc...

Also, the machines will not be completely self-replicating. They will require humans to make them work. They won't be able to make their own metal from ore, or turn petroleum into polymers for plastic. They might be able to turn copper ingot and plastic pellets into cat-5 cable, or you may need to feed it a spool of Cat-5.

I think this could result in a massive decentralization of power. When factory equipment becomes something you can get massive quantities of for next to nothing the value of almost every company's assets will plummet. Machines will be worth the market value of the materials they are made of, and maybe the energy it takes to form them into the item.

The manufacturing industry will dissappear, and engineering and design will become huge. the wealthy may still use certified name brand products, but eventually everything will get reverse engineered and pirated. Many "open source" products will become available as well.


Goodbye industry, hello progress. I hope you own real estate.


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https://www.gofundme.com/f/support-for-renee-goods-wife-and-son

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Re: Self-replicating production facilities: What would their impact be? [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #3399515 -

Also, the machines will not be completely self-replicating. They will require humans to make them work. They won't be able to make their own metal from ore, or turn petroleum into polymers for plastic. They might be able to turn copper ingot and plastic pellets into cat-5 cable, or you may need to feed it a spool of Cat-5.


That isn't "self-replication" at all, then. That's just an extreme version of the manufacturing process we already use, where machines take one material and produce another with it. Oh, and, we already use machines to make machines. When's the last time you saw a hand-crafted cutting laser? (outside of someone's garage)

I think this could result in a massive decentralization of power. When factory equipment becomes something you can get massive quantities of for next to nothing the value of almost every company's assets will plummet. Machines will be worth the market value of the materials they are made of, and maybe the energy it takes to form them into the item.

I don't see that happening. What we're talking about isn't anything new, just progress towards more automation. If you are starting up a factory you would still need to buy the parts from someone else. Unless you own your own parts which have the ability to make more of themselves, but then you still need to buy the materials and energy...plus time=money.

I suspect the price of manufacturing tools will continue to fall as better ways of creating the tools are invented...but I don't think the price will suddenly drop out because we make it really easy.


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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free.
But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.

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Re: Self-replicating production facilities: What would their impact be? [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #3399673 -

When you can buy a machine that can make you anything you want for next to nothing for what today is the price of a good stereo, it will impact world economy and society very deeply.

A self-fabricating machine would have that effect.

It would be cheap, and you could just feed it 1700 lbs of steel, 18 lbs of copper, 128 lbs of 17 different kinds of plastic, 14 lbs of borosilicate glass, 47 lbs of rubber, 6 lbs of sulfur, 18 ounces of chromium oxalate, and a few other miscelaneous elements and compounds as well as, say, 2400 KWH of electricity, and two tanks of acetylene and it spits out a brand new Jetta (or it's generic equivalent).


Your cost: $200 - $2000.


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https://www.gofundme.com/f/support-for-renee-goods-wife-and-son

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Re: Self-replicating production facilities: What would their impact be? [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #3399863 -

>Also, the machines will not be completely self-replicating. They will require humans to make them work. They won't be able to make their own metal from ore, or turn petroleum into polymers for plastic. They might be able to turn copper ingot and plastic pellets into cat-5 cable, or you may need to feed it a spool of Cat-5.

not yet!!!! :shocked:


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"A human being is part of a whole, called by us the Universe, a part limited in time and space. He experiences himself, his thoughts and feelings, as something separated from the rest--a kind of optical delusion of his consciousness. This delusion is a kind of prison for us, restricting us to our personal desires and to affection for a few persons nearest us. Our task must be to free ourselves from this prison by widening our circles of compassion to embrace all living creatures and the whole of nature in its beauty."
-Al Einstein

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Re: Self-replicating production facilities: What would their impact be? [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #3400168 -

A self-fabricating machine would have that effect.

It would be cheap, and you could just feed it 1700 lbs of steel, 18 lbs of copper, 128 lbs of 17 different kinds of plastic, 14 lbs of borosilicate glass, 47 lbs of rubber, 6 lbs of sulfur, 18 ounces of chromium oxalate, and a few other miscelaneous elements and compounds as well as, say, 2400 KWH of electricity, and two tanks of acetylene and it spits out a brand new Jetta (or it's generic equivalent).

Like the replicators, on Star Trek?

A machine to build "anything" would be incredibly complex.


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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free.
But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.

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Re: Self-replicating production facilities: What would their impact be? [Re: trendal]
    #3400875 -

It would have it's limitations.

It could build it's own upgrades. For instance if you wanted to use it to build a computer monitor, it may first have to make some specialized tools to do so. Some of those specialized tools may themselves require specialized tools to make.

Everything would evolve from the base model, which would be able to make (fabricate) itself and several other useful items.

In order for an item to be made it has to first be designed. Then you need to design a process to manufacture the product using whatever standard or upgrade tools are at hand. If not all tools are available, then it cannot be built.It would be wise to design the product with the replicator system it is being designed for in mind. This is the advantage that the open source products will have over bootlegged items. Ferraris weren't designed to be built by a Self-Fabricating Machine Shop (SFMS).

Bootlegging will consist of disassembling a product, taking very precise measurements of every single part, designing a process for the SFMS to make and assemble each part, and then assemble the parts into a finished product.

The origional base SFMS will make several smaller, less complicated items, such as a computer mouse, an electric drill, a blender/food processor, and a car stereo, a few medium sized items, like a refrigerator, a washing machine, a dryer, and a television, and one or two big items, like a small vehicle, such as a motorcycle, or a two seater commuter car.

It wouldn't be able to make anything except that set of things until someone designs something else for it, possibly an upgrade that will make it possible for it to make several more items.

The whole thing depends on the creation an open source engineering community much like we see with Linux, except instead of designing programs they design products and processes.


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https://www.gofundme.com/f/support-for-renee-goods-wife-and-son

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Re: Self-replicating production facilities: What would their impact be? [Re: trendal]
    #3415033 -

http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/12.12/view.html?pg=4


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https://www.gofundme.com/f/support-for-renee-goods-wife-and-son

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Re: Self-replicating production facilities: What would their impact be? [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #3415333 -

Not a bad idea. I've seen those "rapid prototypers" before. Right now they take an INCREDIBLY long time to make even a single object, sometimes in excess of 24h for a single object.

Molecular engineering is probably still quite a few years down the road. We are only JUST starting to get involved with nano-scale production...but right now it takes a long time to produce anything at all. Production-line assembly of materials on a molecular scale is stil FAR beyond our capabilities.


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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free.
But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.

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Re: Self-replicating production facilities: What would their impact be? [Re: trendal]
    #3415590 -

Like I said. I'm not really interested in nano right now.

THis article goes into it, but I was more interested in this part:


A fab lab is a miniature factory for the digital age. The latest version consists of three Linux PCs, a laser cutter, a combination 3-D scanner and drill, a numerically controlled X-Acto knife, and a handful of RISC chips. Set it up, turn it on, and you can crank out not only solid objects like eyeglass frames and action figures but, thanks to Gershenfeld's research, electronic devices like radios and computers, too. The professor recently installed one at a technical institute in southwestern Ghana, where it has proven hugely popular.


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https://www.gofundme.com/f/support-for-renee-goods-wife-and-son

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Re: Self-replicating production facilities: What would their impact be? *DELETED* [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #3419268 -

Post deleted by poke smot!

Reason for deletion: x


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Re: Self-replicating production facilities: What would their impact be? [Re: poke smot!]
    #3419302 -

At least if machines take over us... Nature will eventually get revenge on the machines for us... The chaotic/natural order will always win


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Re: Self-replicating production facilities: What would their impact be? [Re: MovingTarget]
    #3419413 -

Nature will eventually get revenge on the machines for us... The chaotic/natural order will always win

What if artificial life-forms are the "next step" for nature? :wink:


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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free.
But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.

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Re: Self-replicating production facilities: What would their impact be? [Re: poke smot!]
    #3419493 -

Depends on what you're building. Different products will take different processes, and material to complete. I would think at least oxygen, propane, acetylene, and argon/CO2 mix would be the standard set.


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https://www.gofundme.com/f/support-for-renee-goods-wife-and-son

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Re: Self-replicating production facilities: What would their impact be? [Re: trendal]
    #3419994 -

>What if artificial life-forms are the "next step" for nature?

my thoughts exactly! i dont think my tin foil hat will do any good but ill keep it on regardless.


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"A human being is part of a whole, called by us the Universe, a part limited in time and space. He experiences himself, his thoughts and feelings, as something separated from the rest--a kind of optical delusion of his consciousness. This delusion is a kind of prison for us, restricting us to our personal desires and to affection for a few persons nearest us. Our task must be to free ourselves from this prison by widening our circles of compassion to embrace all living creatures and the whole of nature in its beauty."
-Al Einstein

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Re: Self-replicating production facilities: What would their impact be? [Re: amyloid]
    #3420118 -

Machines aren't inherently evil, they're inherently amoral.

Our DNA is an amoral machine that has produced us, which in turn invented morality.


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https://www.gofundme.com/f/support-for-renee-goods-wife-and-son

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Re: Self-replicating production facilities: What would their impact be? [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #3420796 -

Well put :thumbup:


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Re: Self-replicating production facilities: What would their impact be? [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #3429080 -

i didnt say they were evil did i? if i did i was kidding. machines as of now arent very aware of their surroundings beyond what they are programmed to do. if they were to sprout intelligence, much like humans did they will be able to make decisions. and once they can choose one option over another based on nothing but what they have gathered from experiences occuring after they were created(memory) their judgements are sure to be biased as to what they "feel" is "right" not as definitive as what we think of morals today, but certainly a step in the same direction i think.... anyway, who said machines need morals to kill? if anything i think it would be easier to act without thinking about the consequences. as im writing this im seeing that im not really getting anywhere. ill settle at i dont know what computers/machines will do if they became as intelligent as humans. it could be really bad, or it could be really good.


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"A human being is part of a whole, called by us the Universe, a part limited in time and space. He experiences himself, his thoughts and feelings, as something separated from the rest--a kind of optical delusion of his consciousness. This delusion is a kind of prison for us, restricting us to our personal desires and to affection for a few persons nearest us. Our task must be to free ourselves from this prison by widening our circles of compassion to embrace all living creatures and the whole of nature in its beauty."
-Al Einstein

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