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Anonymous
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 i think i may have come to an uncomfortable conclusion... 
#3285155 - 10/27/04 03:35 PM (19 years, 5 months ago) |
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for a little while now i've been musing over the idea of what it actually means to vote for a third party like the libertarians in our current system.
and i think that those who say it's a waste may just be right.
a little while back i was refuting one of them and i said,
"the "don't throw your vote away" logic is wrong. it assumes that unless you vote for the winner, your vote is wasted...."
isn't this true though?
ignoring for a moment the idea of 'sending the major parties a message', which i will address later, isn't it true that unless your vote is cast for the winner, your vote had no impact in the outcome of the election?
i would say that unless the guy you voted for won both your state and the the election as a whole, then it wouldn't matter if you, or anyone else who voted as you did, voted at all. the only people who matter in the outcome of the election are those who vote for the winner in a state that goes to the winner. the actual amount that each one of them matters can be determined by the number of votes by which that candidate wins their state, the number of electoral votes their state carries, and the number of electoral votes by which their candidate wins, but it's really not very important. your vote will have no bearing whatsoever on the outcome of the election unless you cast a vote for the winner and he carries your state.
of course, no one will know who will win, but if you're concerned about your vote having any bearing on the outcome of the election, you'd better vote for a guy who has at least some probability of carrying your state and winning the election.
now, affecting the actual outcome of the election is not why most people vote with a third party. if i voted for badnarik it wouldn't be because i felt that i could contribute to a libertarian victory by doing so. it would be to 'send a message' to the other parties. here is where we get into the mechanics of how the power game works in a winner-take-all electoral system.
it is no coincidence that winner-take-all systems are always dominated by 2 major parties and why proportional representation systems, like a parliament, usually have many. in a winner-take-all system, if you want to be able to do anything, you have to win a plurality. different political factions will set aside their differences and work together to obtain a plurality, and there will eventually end up being only 2 major opposing parties.
the party that is able to get the most votes will win. it doesn't matter where they come from; the political party capable of putting together the most popular platform and fielding the better candidate will win. this is why neither the republican nor democratic platform is based on any single guiding principle of political philosophy - the guiding principle is simply to get the most votes by putting together the platform that is acceptable to most people.
if you vote libertarian, it may send a message to the republican party. maybe they'll see that they are losing a few votes to the libertarians. will they then cut farm subsidies and lose the votes of thousands of farmers to pick up those of a few hundred lassiez-faire capitalists? will they let up on drugs and lose a few thousand votes to gain a couple hundred? will they change their stance on anything?
probably not, unless it makes their platform more widely appealing on the whole, which is something that they probably would have already done if that was so. voting for the libertarian party would have a very small impact on the policies of either of the major parties and it wouldn't mean anything in the outcome of the election. it's not a rational choice.
probably at least half of the registered republicans out there would feel more comfortable voting for either the libertarian, constitution, or american parties, but do you know what would happen if they did? the democrats would win every single election. that is all. hell, if even just every 'small-L' libertarian in the republican party split, the democrats would trounce them every time. maybe republicans would then shift to a more libertarian platform in order to regain those lost votes, only to lose even more social-conservatives to the democrats. this is just how the system works.
there are guys like ron paul and jim gray who are closely linked to the libertarian party but run as republicans and actually win office and are able to do some good.
here are some of the positions held by libertarians in my state:
Larry Clever Meadville Area Sewer Authority
Joyce Clines Sayre Inspector of Elections
Mark Connors East Washington Borough Constable
Chris L. Davis Elizabethtown Borough Constable
Michael Decker Halifax Township Supervisor
Tom Durborow Towamencin Inspector of Elections
Robert T. Durborow Montgomery Judge of Elections
Arthur L. Farnsworth West Rockhill Township Auditor
not exactly in high places. i wonder how many of those positions were even contested.
and we all] vote for the 'lesser-of-any-number-of-evils'. does anyone fully agree with every policy of any political party? if your thing is to vote for a candidate you fully agree with, you may as well vote for yourself.
i don't condone this system, but this is how it works. if we had runoff voting, or a proportional system like a parliament, it would make perfect sense to vote for a third party. in our system, it doesn't.
what do you think?
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 zahudulallah
Sexual Heretic
Registered: 10/20/04
Posts: 10,579
Loc: Tokyo, Japan
Last seen: 18 years, 10 months
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Re: i think i may have come to an uncomfortable conclusion... [Re: ]
#3285296 - 10/27/04 04:02 PM (19 years, 5 months ago) |
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I'm extremely bitter about those who are going for 3rd party candidates. This is perhaps the most import election in decades. The current President a few scandals short of impeachment, and we still have people who somehow believe voting for a 3rd party will be good "in the long term."
Man, how old are way? We are all fairly young. There's always 2008 to vote for our beliefs. 04 is about staging a freaking coup to get a madman out of office.
I somehow feel that all the Libertarians on this board will regret not voting for Kerry in 04 (if Bush wins and fucks everyone for another 4 years) 30, 40 years down the road after half a dozen elections where they voted third party everytime. I don't think any election will ever be as intense and much needed as this one.
Older libertarians (who are libertarian in philosophy, and side with the Democratic liberals as a fighting front against the Christian Right) knows this, like Jon Stewart, Michael Moore, and Bill Maher. A primary election is never going to find the Political Christ.
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Learyfan
It's the psychedelic movement!
 
Registered: 04/20/01
Posts: 34,213
Loc: High pride!
Last seen: 9 hours, 24 minutes
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Re: i think i may have come to an uncomfortable conclusion... [Re: ]
#3285353 - 10/27/04 04:15 PM (19 years, 5 months ago) |
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Mush, i'm going to make a prediction. Two years from now you will be a card-carrying Republican and you will be for the drug war.
This isn't meant to be an insult. I just see you getting more and more conservative as the days pass.
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Mp3 of the month: Sons Of Adam - Feathered Fish
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Ancalagon
AgnosticLibertarian
Registered: 07/30/02
Posts: 1,364
Last seen: 15 years, 2 months
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Re: i think i may have come to an uncomfortable conclusion... [Re: ]
#3285372 - 10/27/04 04:19 PM (19 years, 5 months ago) |
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I'm going to have to take issue with many of your conclusions. First of all, the logical conclusion of the 'your vote only really counts if it is for the candidate who wins your state's electoral votes and then goes onto win the national election,' is actually that one should stay home instead of voting at all. The logical conclusion of this is that your vote ONLY REALLY MATTERS if just one vote makes the difference between who wins and who loses your state, and your state's electoral votes make the difference between who wins and who loses the election. I read an article a while back that did the math regarding this, and while I don't have the time to find it right now, it doesn't take a statistician to realize that the odds of the above scenario playing out are astronomically bad. I believe the author said you had a better chance of winning the lottery several times in a short period of time than you would of having your vote decide your state and your state decide the race.
That being said, I haven't actually refuted your premise; I've simply shown via the above that statistically speaking, you shouldn't vote if you "want your vote to mean something." I do have serious grievances with your further arguments though. Your point regarding voting third parties to send a message assumes that sending a message is the sole reason to vote third party -- it is not. I harbor no illusion that the Republicans will start supporting liberty in the next election cycle if the libertarians are shown to be the cause of their defeat. That this is not the case, that there is no real chance of Republicans supporting liberty is a part of the reason you neglected to list for voting third party. I am voting Libertarian in order to help grow a movement. The more votes the Libertarians get the more press they will receive; the more press they receive, the more Americans will become aware of their existence; the more Americans become aware of their existence, the more they will learn about how sorry a state this nation is on so many fronts; and the more they learn about the true state of this nation, the more receptive they will be to change and something new -- hopefully that something being liberty. This is besides other more localized benefits to voting for third parties. The draconian ballot access laws of many states can be offset by candidates for certain offices receiving a certain percent of the vote, etc.
To summarize: If you vote for the lesser of two evils and your candidate loses you have indeed wasted your vote; you have given your support to a candidate that, without the presence of an abhorrent opponent, you would despise. Voting for a third party that reflects your beliefs MUCH more accurately(even if not perfectly) than either of the two major parties helps to grow that party and the movement. There is some faith(as an Agnostic, not something I am usually a fan of) involved I must admit. The party/movement-growing argument is based upon me feeling that a vast amount of Americans would truly desire freedom if they knew how much of it they were deprived of and how easily it could be taken back. I will be voting for the future prospect of liberty on November 2nd, a prospect that I feel can be achieved through the growth of the Libertarian Party and the resulting and neccesary growth of the encompassing movement for liberty. I truly hope you will join me MushMaster.
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?When Alexander the Great visted the philosopher Diogenes and asked whether he could do anything for him, Diogenes is said to have replied: 'Yes, stand a little less between me and the sun.' It is what every citizen is entitled to ask of his government.?
-Henry Hazlitt in 'Economics in One Lesson'
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Ancalagon
AgnosticLibertarian
Registered: 07/30/02
Posts: 1,364
Last seen: 15 years, 2 months
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Re: i think i may have come to an uncomfortable conclusion... [Re: ]
#3285386 - 10/27/04 04:22 PM (19 years, 5 months ago) |
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Quote:
there are guys like ron paul and jim gray
Jim Gray won his position as a Libertarian and is currently running for the Senate as a Libertarian. If he loses he will return to his seat AS a Libertarian. I tremendously respect what both men have done and are doing.
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?When Alexander the Great visted the philosopher Diogenes and asked whether he could do anything for him, Diogenes is said to have replied: 'Yes, stand a little less between me and the sun.' It is what every citizen is entitled to ask of his government.?
-Henry Hazlitt in 'Economics in One Lesson'
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Learyfan
It's the psychedelic movement!
Registered: 04/20/01
Posts: 34,213
Loc: High pride!
Last seen: 9 hours, 24 minutes
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Re: i think i may have come to an uncomfortable conclusion... [Re: zahudulallah]
#3285387 - 10/27/04 04:23 PM (19 years, 5 months ago) |
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Quote:
zahudulallah said:
I'm extremely bitter about those who are going for 3rd party candidates. This is perhaps the most import election in decades. The current President a few scandals short of impeachment, and we still have people who somehow believe voting for a 3rd party will be good "in the long term."
Man, how old are way? We are all fairly young. There's always 2008 to vote for our beliefs. 04 is about staging a freaking coup to get a madman out of office.
I somehow feel that all the Libertarians on this board will regret not voting for Kerry in 04 (if Bush wins and fucks everyone for another 4 years) 30, 40 years down the road after half a dozen elections where they voted third party everytime. I don't think any election will ever be as intense and much needed as this one.
Older libertarians (who are libertarian in philosophy, and side with the Democratic liberals as a fighting front against the Christian Right) knows this, like Jon Stewart, Michael Moore, and Bill Maher. A primary election is never going to find the Political Christ.
Fuck that. Every future Republican is going to be just about as bad as Bush. Using your logic, we can never vote third party again.
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Mp3 of the month: Sons Of Adam - Feathered Fish
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zahudulallah
Sexual Heretic
Registered: 10/20/04
Posts: 10,579
Loc: Tokyo, Japan
Last seen: 18 years, 10 months
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Re: i think i may have come to an uncomfortable conclusion... [Re: Learyfan]
#3285411 - 10/27/04 04:27 PM (19 years, 5 months ago) |
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What in the in the blue hell are you talking about, I'm encouraging people to VOTE KERRY - and yes, voting for a 3rd party that has no chance of winning is a waste of a vote. It's a mathematical fact. These Badnarikis and Nader voters are simply contributing to the campaigns of Republicans. They hypocrites of civil rights.
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 z@z.com
Libertarian
Registered: 10/13/02
Posts: 2,876
Loc: ATL
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Re: i think i may have come to an uncomfortable conclusion... [Re: zahudulallah]
#3285414 - 10/27/04 04:28 PM (19 years, 5 months ago) |
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Quote:
zahudulallah said:
Older libertarians (who are libertarian in philosophy, and side with the Democratic liberals as a fighting front against the Christian Right) knows this, like Jon Stewart, Michael Moore, and Bill Maher.
Are you seriously calling Jon Stewart, Michael Moore, and Bill Maher libertarians?
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"Of all tyrannies, a tyranny exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It may be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end, for they do so with the approval of their own conscience." - C.S. Lewis
"I would rather be exposed to the inconveniencies attending too much liberty than to those attending too small a degree of it." - Thomas Jefferson
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zahudulallah
Sexual Heretic
Registered: 10/20/04
Posts: 10,579
Loc: Tokyo, Japan
Last seen: 18 years, 10 months
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Re: i think i may have come to an uncomfortable conclusion... [Re: z@z.com]
#3285424 - 10/27/04 04:30 PM (19 years, 5 months ago) |
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Quote:
z@z.com said:
Quote:
zahudulallah said:
Older libertarians (who are libertarian in philosophy, and side with the Democratic liberals as a fighting front against the Christian Right) knows this, like Jon Stewart, Michael Moore, and Bill Maher.
Are you seriously calling Jon Stewart, Michael Moore, and Bill Maher libertarians?
I know it sounds crazy, but yes.
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z@z.com
Libertarian
Registered: 10/13/02
Posts: 2,876
Loc: ATL
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Re: i think i may have come to an uncomfortable conclusion... [Re: zahudulallah]
#3285427 - 10/27/04 04:31 PM (19 years, 5 months ago) |
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Are you aware of the libertarian stance on government involvement in the economy?
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"Of all tyrannies, a tyranny exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It may be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end, for they do so with the approval of their own conscience." - C.S. Lewis
"I would rather be exposed to the inconveniencies attending too much liberty than to those attending too small a degree of it." - Thomas Jefferson
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Ancalagon
AgnosticLibertarian
Registered: 07/30/02
Posts: 1,364
Last seen: 15 years, 2 months
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Re: i think i may have come to an uncomfortable conclusion... [Re: zahudulallah]
#3285439 - 10/27/04 04:33 PM (19 years, 5 months ago) |
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Quote:
I'm extremely bitter about those who are going for 3rd party candidates.
And I'm extremely bitter about people who think John Kerry is going to offer salvation. Fuck John Kerry and Fuck George Bush.
Quote:
This is perhaps the most import election in decades.
All the more to VOTE MY CONSCIENCE in this most important of elections.
Quote:
The current President a few scandals short of impeachment, and we still have people who somehow believe voting for a 3rd party will be good "in the long term."
You think voting Democrat is good in the long term? Give me a goddamn break. People voting for Republicans AND people voting for Democrats is why this country is getting worse and worse with each passing year on so many fronts -- note: BOTH major parties have caused this, not one or the other.
Quote:
Man, how old are way? We are all fairly young. There's always 2008 to vote for our beliefs. 04 is about staging a freaking coup to get a madman out of office.
What happens when Dick Cheney runs against John Kerry in 2008? I KNOW you'll be moaning, "JUST THIS ONE EXTREMELY IMPORTANT ELECTION YOU HAVE TO VOTE FOR THE DEMOCRATS." What happens when Jeb Bush runs for President against John Edwards in 2012, same garbage logic? The Bush twins might start running in 2016 -- maybe I can start voting my conscience by the time I'm collecting Social Security checks. Oh wait, Social Security will have been long-since bankrupt thanks to the people you are so happy to cast a vote for. Stellar.
Quote:
I somehow feel that all the Libertarians on this board will regret not voting for Kerry in 04 (if Bush wins and fucks everyone for another 4 years) 30, 40 years down the road after half a dozen elections where they voted third party everytime. I don't think any election will ever be as intense and much needed as this one.
I somehow feel that any libertarian who doesn't regret voting for a statist war-monger is not a libertarian. I hate using the "No true Scottsman..." arguments which, I believe, have hurt the growth of the libertarian movement, but in this case, it applies.
Quote:
Older libertarians (who are libertarian in philosophy, and side with the Democratic liberals as a fighting front against the Christian Right) knows this, like Jon Stewart, Michael Moore, and Bill Maher. A primary election is never going to find the Political Christ.
Jon Stewart is a liberal. Michael Moore is extremely liberal. Bill Maher is a centrist and a very confused one at that.
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?When Alexander the Great visted the philosopher Diogenes and asked whether he could do anything for him, Diogenes is said to have replied: 'Yes, stand a little less between me and the sun.' It is what every citizen is entitled to ask of his government.?
-Henry Hazlitt in 'Economics in One Lesson'
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JesusChrist
Son Of God
Registered: 02/19/04
Posts: 1,459
Last seen: 11 years, 7 months
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Re: i think i may have come to an uncomfortable conclusion... [Re: z@z.com]
#3285468 - 10/27/04 04:38 PM (19 years, 5 months ago) |
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I think the people that vote libertarian are more closely aligned with the conservatives. My take is that they are the real conservatives, they just aren't bible thumpers who want to get into your bedroom. I am close to voting for Badnarik, but I would never in my life consider voting for that liberal horse faced traitor.
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Tastes just like chicken
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Learyfan
It's the psychedelic movement!
Registered: 04/20/01
Posts: 34,213
Loc: High pride!
Last seen: 9 hours, 24 minutes
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Re: i think i may have come to an uncomfortable conclusion... [Re: zahudulallah]
#3285474 - 10/27/04 04:39 PM (19 years, 5 months ago) |
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Yes, but you're acting as if it's so important to vote Democrat this time, and Democrat only. But you will say the same thing four years from now. There is no way the Republicans will run someone you'll approve of(assuming you have the same beliefs).
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Mp3 of the month: Sons Of Adam - Feathered Fish
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zahudulallah
Sexual Heretic
Registered: 10/20/04
Posts: 10,579
Loc: Tokyo, Japan
Last seen: 18 years, 10 months
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Re: i think i may have come to an uncomfortable conclusion... [Re: Ancalagon]
#3285475 - 10/27/04 04:40 PM (19 years, 5 months ago) |
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z@z.com
Libertarian
Registered: 10/13/02
Posts: 2,876
Loc: ATL
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Re: i think i may have come to an uncomfortable conclusion... [Re: JesusChrist]
#3285476 - 10/27/04 04:40 PM (19 years, 5 months ago) |
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Exactly. I think that if all Libertarians decided to vote for one of the two main parties that the republicans would be the ones to benefit.
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"Of all tyrannies, a tyranny exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It may be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end, for they do so with the approval of their own conscience." - C.S. Lewis
"I would rather be exposed to the inconveniencies attending too much liberty than to those attending too small a degree of it." - Thomas Jefferson
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lonestar2004
Live to party,work to affordit.
Registered: 10/03/04
Posts: 8,978
Loc: South Texas
Last seen: 13 years, 21 days
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Re: i think i may have come to an uncomfortable conclusion... [Re: JesusChrist]
#3285487 - 10/27/04 04:43 PM (19 years, 5 months ago) |
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michael moore a libertarian?
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America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"
We have "reckless fiscal policies"
America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.
Americans deserve better
Barack Obama
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zahudulallah
Sexual Heretic
Registered: 10/20/04
Posts: 10,579
Loc: Tokyo, Japan
Last seen: 18 years, 10 months
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Re: i think i may have come to an uncomfortable conclusion... [Re: Learyfan]
#3285491 - 10/27/04 04:43 PM (19 years, 5 months ago) |
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If they ran McCain or Arnold, I would likely be pro Republican. Frankly, as a Muslim I relate to Conservative politicians - however, the fiscal relationship Bush and family has with the al-Sauds is deplorable in a much deeper aspect - the Iraq invasian is an extension of this relationship.
The former President I respect the most happens to be a Republican - Ronald Reagan.
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Anonymous
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Re: i think i may have come to an uncomfortable conclusion... [Re: Ancalagon]
#3285540 - 10/27/04 04:56 PM (19 years, 5 months ago) |
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an election needn't come down to a single vote for your vote to be important. winning an election is a joint effort.
let's say there are 11 people voting between two options. the vote comes down to 5 yeays and 5 nays. the last guy who votes is the tie breaker. now, is he wholly responsible for the outcome of the election? not at all. every single person who voted as he did was equally responsible.
it is no different if the vote is not as close. in every election there comes a point at which one candidate recieves the number of votes they need to win. it is ridiculous to suggest that the only vote that counts is the guy who casts that last needed vote. it doesn't matter if that vote comes at the the very end of the election or some time in the middle. everyone who voted for the winner had some part in winning the election.
if every small-L libertarian affiliated with the republican party voted libertarian instead, the only thing it would do would be ensure democrat victories in nearly every single election. it would not result in more liberty, but substantially less.
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Learyfan
It's the psychedelic movement!
Registered: 04/20/01
Posts: 34,213
Loc: High pride!
Last seen: 9 hours, 24 minutes
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Re: i think i may have come to an uncomfortable conclusion... [Re: zahudulallah]
#3285546 - 10/27/04 04:58 PM (19 years, 5 months ago) |
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Ok, well then that's good for you. All Republicans are unexceptable in my eyes, which means i'm voting third party each and every time unless I live in a swing state.
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Mp3 of the month: Sons Of Adam - Feathered Fish
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zahudulallah
Sexual Heretic
Registered: 10/20/04
Posts: 10,579
Loc: Tokyo, Japan
Last seen: 18 years, 10 months
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Re: i think i may have come to an uncomfortable conclusion... [Re: Learyfan]
#3285635 - 10/27/04 05:17 PM (19 years, 5 months ago) |
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Quote:
Learyfan said:
Ok, well then that's good for you. All Republicans are unexceptable in my eyes, which means i'm voting third party each and every time unless I live in a swing state.
You jumped onto the Bandwagon too?
As for your remark on Republicans.. not all of them are bad.
Who played bloody knuckles with the Soviet Union, intimidating it into collapse? Who drove the wedge between Communist China and the Soviet Union? Who's constantly fighting for the rights of the unborn?
Like the Democrats, Republicans aren't perfect. There is a shit load of stuff I take issue with Democrats/liberals - as there are things from the Republican side that i take issue with. However, right now the Democratic choice is the better choice than the Republican one.
If you're constantly going to denounce a party in any scenario - regardless.. well, then what one is doing is basically being a partisan hack.
May God bless Ronald Reagan and curse George Bush.
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