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The psychology of climate change denial
    #25634505 -

I'm sure I'll get some illogical and ignorant replies to this post, but the scientific, quantitative evidence could not be clearer that the climate is changing, due to human activity, beyond the known upper limit of the climate cycle documented over literally millions of years. There are people who deny this, usually without any understanding of basic science. Then there are the people who deny the effects of carbon dioxide on the atmosphere. In point of fact, the greenhouse effect is very well understood and has been for several decades. Excess CO2 causes excess trapping of infrared radiation in the atmosphere, resulting in painstakingly well-documented increases in atmospheric heat. This has led to CO2 levels that have not been seen for, as I have said, millions of years. Scientists have numerous ways of measuring this, including ice-core samples from the antarctic that give precise and unequivocal data. To argue against all of this is to display demonstrable ignorance and peculiar stubbornness. Or maybe it isn't so peculiar.

So I ask you: What are the psychological reasons for denying what is slapping everyone in the face as the climate hits observable extremes never before recorded? What psychological reasons do people have for a lack of "belief" in climate change? Are they being told what to think by politicians? Are they too wedded to their worldview to make a change in the face of overwhelming evidence? Are conspiracy theories too in vogue? Does religion play a role? I'd like to get a conversation started to see what we can determine. Let's not have this thread be a debate about the science, but rather the psychology involved.




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Vi Veri Universum Vivus Vici

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Re: The psychology of climate change denial [Re: DividedQuantum]
    #25634537 -

DividedQuantum said:
Are they being told what to think by politicians?



Yup, you gotta remember the gross of the population are sheep, and some may not be sheep but they live oblivious to these things because they are plain people that are to occupied with their lives and own problems... then theres the sector that lives in denial.

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Re: The psychology of climate change denial [Re: DividedQuantum] * 4
    #25634590 -

I believe climate change positions are predominantly tribal responses because people speak for their tribal alignment, not their individual assessment.  And, in the end, your evidence doesn't matter.

I will use two very broad, general categories with gross, stereotypical attributes:

Republican Tribe:
  • Individualist
  • Gun Rights
  • Capitalist
  • Strict Constitutionalist
  • Hunters
  • Live in the Rural Areas


Democrat Tribe:
  • Socialist
  • The constitution is a "good guide" but not the rules
  • Live in Cities
  • All guns are always bad
  • Drugs Experiments
  • Climate Change
  • Ozone Layer & Climate Change
  • "Baby Seals" ever used in a sentence


It is my personal belief that people try to determine if another person is closely associated with their tribe.  They do this primarily by understanding where a person stands on various issues.  As an example, it may be somewhat rare to find someone that wants to save the baby seals, is concerned about the ozone layer, experiments with mushrooms and votes Republican.  In addition, there seem to be some tribal identifiers that are more polarizing than others.  The end result in my experience is that if a person is identified as the opposing tribe, all views of the opposing tribe are summarily dismissed without evidence or consideration.  Issues are not often judged individually but are lumped together with other constructs to form categories to form tribal identifications.

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Re: The psychology of climate change denial [Re: zensane]
    #25634681 -

I believe, I mean think,  :smile:  the answer you (DQ) seek is here

it is a good article, but perhaps, just a little too long, for copy & paste

https://www.csicop.org/si/show/belief_engine

"The Belief Engine
James Alcock
(James E. Alcock is professor of psychology, Glendon College, York University, Toronto.)
Skeptical Inquirer Volume 19.3, May / June 1995

Our brains and nervous systems constitute a belief-generating machine, a system that evolved to assure not truth, logic, and reason, but survival. The belief engine has seven major components." ... followed by article

can also be downloaded here
http://www.learningmethods.com/downloads/pdf/james.alcock--the.belief.engine.pdf

also of possible interest:


Fantasyland: How America Went Haywire: A 500-Year History Paperback – June 5, 2018
by Kurt Andersen

https://www.csicop.org/si/show/the_god_engine

https://www.amazon.com/Belief-Means-Believe-Convictions-Compelling/dp/1633884031
- - - - - -
Why You Can Never Argue with Conspiracy Theorists | Argument Clinic | WIRED

Edited by laughingdog (11/24/18 07:53 AM)

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Re: The psychology of climate change denial [Re: laughingdog]
    #25635747 -



--------------------
rahz

comfort pleasure power love     truth awareness peace I am      I feel      I do     I love  I speak    I see    I know

why there is reality and patterned, law-like consistency at all, rather than noise or non-reality is not a question physics answers. It's a question physics presupposes an answer to in order to provide other answers.

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Re: The psychology of climate change denial [Re: Rahz] * 3
    #25635911 -

Im not a denialist I'm just a self admission known nothing-ist.

The big issue for me is that the hard sciences, the experts, the climate scientists. Have come up with too many models, theories, and prematurely sold them to the public.

It's their own work that's created distrust. First co2 was warming there was just as beautiful graphs and equations and physics arguments as presented in the link above my post saying co2 is actually responsible for cooling.

Fact is the climate scientists aint right yet, they don't know what the fuck they're talking about but they know way more than a lay person. Lay persons have extremely emotional attachment to the data they think is correct yet they couldn't begin to tell you about  Boltzmann equation radiation physics etc... They just have an attachment to what they have determined to be "expert evidence" much the same way climate conspiracy theorist people cling to what they believe to be "expert evidence".

The way I see it. Yea we're changing climate. But not even the experts can pinpoint anything with real accuracy. Ten years from now todays ideas and theories will also be wrong just like the ones from 2000-2008ish.

Should we curtail emissions, absolutely. Should we pretend like we know what we are doing, how it effects the atmosphere and planet, like our theories are sound... Absolutely not.

For example the resolution of that co2 chart in the first post is in tens of thousands of years. When it should be in tens of millions of years. It's biased to show overwhelming concern. Critical thinking comes in and says to me is this graph even interesting, if so i need the why articulated. Show me a graph that goes 10 million years with 100,000 year intervals on the X axis and maybe this is all within a pretty normal range.

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Re: The psychology of climate change denial [Re: zensane]
    #25636480 -

zensane said:
I believe climate change positions are predominantly tribal responses because people speak for their tribal alignment, not their individual assessment.  And, in the end, your evidence doesn't matter.

I will use two very broad, general categories with gross, stereotypical attributes:

Republican Tribe:
  • Individualist
  • Gun Rights
  • Capitalist
  • Strict Constitutionalist
  • Hunters
  • Live in the Rural Areas


Democrat Tribe:
  • Socialist
  • The constitution is a "good guide" but not the rules
  • Live in Cities
  • All guns are always bad
  • Drugs Experiments
  • Climate Change
  • Ozone Layer & Climate Change
  • "Baby Seals" ever used in a sentence


It is my personal belief that people try to determine if another person is closely associated with their tribe.  They do this primarily by understanding where a person stands on various issues.  As an example, it may be somewhat rare to find someone that wants to save the baby seals, is concerned about the ozone layer, experiments with mushrooms and votes Republican.  In addition, there seem to be some tribal identifiers that are more polarizing than others.  The end result in my experience is that if a person is identified as the opposing tribe, all views of the opposing tribe are summarily dismissed without evidence or consideration.  Issues are not often judged individually but are lumped together with other constructs to form categories to form tribal identifications.




I couldn't agree more, and this is an excellent post. I think you got to the heart of what I have been wishing to explore better possibly than any other poster in the thread. You deal with the psychological configuration of what is happening and, regardless of evidence one way or another, I feel people fall into lockstep with their identified tribe in exactly the way you describe. Humans are like that, and always have been. Thank you for your contribution.


--------------------
Vi Veri Universum Vivus Vici

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Re: The psychology of climate change denial [Re: Rahz]
    #25636485 -

Rahz said:
https://principia-scientific.org/the-four-known-scientific-ways-carbon-dioxide-cools-earth-s-climate/




A lot of fancy equations that I can actually somewhat understand (took math and physics in college), it seems a bit desperate to beat to a different drum and be the champion that defeated the work of thousands of other qualified researchers. I have an open mind, but this particular page is not compelling to me.


--------------------
Vi Veri Universum Vivus Vici

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Re: The psychology of climate change denial [Re: bodhisatta]
    #25636494 -

bodhisatta said:
Im not a denialist I'm just a self admission known nothing-ist.

The big issue for me is that the hard sciences, the experts, the climate scientists. Have come up with too many models, theories, and prematurely sold them to the public.

It's their own work that's created distrust. First co2 was warming there was just as beautiful graphs and equations and physics arguments as presented in the link above my post saying co2 is actually responsible for cooling.

Fact is the climate scientists aint right yet, they don't know what the fuck they're talking about but they know way more than a lay person. Lay persons have extremely emotional attachment to the data they think is correct yet they couldn't begin to tell you about  Boltzmann equation radiation physics etc... They just have an attachment to what they have determined to be "expert evidence" much the same way climate conspiracy theorist people cling to what they believe to be "expert evidence".

The way I see it. Yea we're changing climate. But not even the experts can pinpoint anything with real accuracy. Ten years from now todays ideas and theories will also be wrong just like the ones from 2000-2008ish.

Should we curtail emissions, absolutely. Should we pretend like we know what we are doing, how it effects the atmosphere and planet, like our theories are sound... Absolutely not.

For example the resolution of that co2 chart in the first post is in tens of thousands of years. When it should be in tens of millions of years. It's biased to show overwhelming concern. Critical thinking comes in and says to me is this graph even interesting, if so i need the why articulated. Show me a graph that goes 10 million years with 100,000 year intervals on the X axis and maybe this is all within a pretty normal range.




I appreciate your fair and balanced reply, and I think it is reasonable. On the other hand, it seems to me that the science community is more sure of the effects of CO2 on the greenhouse effect than is being popularly portrayed. I have some scientist friends, and they convey to me that almost all scientists -- let's say 98% -- believe that anthropogenic climate change has been scientifically proven. These people are generally the smartest and best qualified to make a statement of this caliber, and so I, who am not a scientist, feel compelled to trust their judgment. In other words, I think by far the majority of those who are qualified to say so are essentially certain that CO2 exacerbates the greenhouse effect, and really we know this at this point. I think that needs to be better understood.


--------------------
Vi Veri Universum Vivus Vici

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Re: The psychology of climate change denial [Re: DividedQuantum] * 2
    #25636503 -

I could probably find some really ridiculous things that 98% of scientists believed in any era that turned out really wrong and were renounced.

Imagine asking 1920s physicists about particles or light and getting close to correct but wrong answers. And even scientists in other fields would have had some rudimentary understanding or education on the matter. Telling you about atoms being plumb pudding

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Re: The psychology of climate change denial [Re: bodhisatta]
    #25636523 -

Well, I'm just not sure there's as much room for doubt as a lot of people think. Just my feeling.


--------------------
Vi Veri Universum Vivus Vici

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Re: The psychology of climate change denial [Re: DividedQuantum]
    #25636540 -

Definitely. There's people out there so polarized their views clearly don't align with anything that makes sense.

It's irritating there's people so in denial they want to see pollution happen to prove a point

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Re: The psychology of climate change denial [Re: DividedQuantum]
    #25636600 -

DividedQuantum said:
Rahz said:
https://principia-scientific.org/the-four-known-scientific-ways-carbon-dioxide-cools-earth-s-climate/




A lot of fancy equations that I can actually somewhat understand (took math and physics in college), it seems a bit desperate to beat to a different drum and be the champion that defeated the work of thousands of other qualified researchers. I have an open mind, but this particular page is not compelling to me.



I don't suspect you have an open mind.


--------------------
rahz

comfort pleasure power love     truth awareness peace I am      I feel      I do     I love  I speak    I see    I know

why there is reality and patterned, law-like consistency at all, rather than noise or non-reality is not a question physics answers. It's a question physics presupposes an answer to in order to provide other answers.

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Re: The psychology of climate change denial [Re: bodhisatta]
    #25636628 -

bodhisatta said:
Im not a denialist I'm just a self admission known nothing-ist.....Should we curtail emissions, absolutely. Should we pretend like we know what we are doing, how it effects the atmosphere and planet, like our theories are sound... Absolutely not…..Lay persons have extremely emotional attachment to the data they think is correct yet they couldn't begin to tell you about  Boltzmann equation radiation physics etc...



zensane said:
I believe climate change positions are predominantly tribal responses because people speak for their tribal alignment, not their individual assessment.  And, in the end, your evidence doesn't matter.




The understandable evidence is simple: melting glaciers, animals being effected, islanders having to leave their islands, etc. - no tribalism necessary and tribalism is no  excuse, and no fancy equations are necessary. Simply reading the relevant news, tells the story. When beattles go where they didn't go before because it is warmer and wipe out forests, it doesn't take a "weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing".
Was the ozone hole caused by man? Yes.
Has post WWll & nuclear testing poisoned the earth and contributed to hundreds of thousands of deaths? Yes.
https://www.ctbto.org/nuclear-testing/the-effects-of-nuclear-testing/general-overview-of-theeffects-of-nuclear-testing/
Are the oceans becoming acidified and the coral reefs bleached? Yes
Are there islands of plastic in the Pacific ocean? yes?
Are the worlds oceans over fished? Yes
Does the pollution in dozens of cities kill people every year? yes
Is ocean fish now dangerous to eat, as in only eat in limited amounts? Yes
But do we have anything to do with melting glaciers, animals being effected, islanders having to leave their islands, etc.? NO of course not, we are innocent! and some magical new technology will save us, or Elon Musk will take us to Mars.

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Re: The psychology of climate change denial [Re: laughingdog]
    #25636639 -

When the deserts formed if people were around they would be blaming their technology. When the ice ages came if people were around they would blame their technology.
Glaciers melt and we blame our technology.

I see absolutely no reason why we shouldn't adamantly control and reduce our pollution but the cause and effect game has little power in arguments so it should be abandoned imo with the focus on just being less of shit as a species.

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Re: The psychology of climate change denial [Re: bodhisatta]
    #25636715 -

The acceptance of something like climate change comes with demands, which is now mandates on human behavior. 

This reality obviously comes with the potential of abuse. The people making the demands now can go overboard and could control too many aspects of peoples lives.  That's where the fear and potential denial comes from, power and control from others.

My opinion is very clear, I believe the evidence is very strong to show a correlation of human behavior and climate change. Now with that being said, please do not ask me to change my behavior to reverse it.

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Re: The psychology of climate change denial [Re: Rahz]
    #25636853 -

Rahz said:
DividedQuantum said:
Rahz said:
https://principia-scientific.org/the-four-known-scientific-ways-carbon-dioxide-cools-earth-s-climate/




A lot of fancy equations that I can actually somewhat understand (took math and physics in college), it seems a bit desperate to beat to a different drum and be the champion that defeated the work of thousands of other qualified researchers. I have an open mind, but this particular page is not compelling to me.



I don't suspect you have an open mind.




Maybe you're right. :shrug:


--------------------
Vi Veri Universum Vivus Vici

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Re: The psychology of climate change denial [Re: laughingdog]
    #25636857 -

laughingdog said:
The understandable evidence is simple: melting glaciers, animals being effected, islanders having to leave their islands, etc. - no tribalism necessary and tribalism is no  excuse, and no fancy equations are necessary. Simply reading the relevant news, tells the story. When beattles go where they didn't go before because it is warmer and wipe out forests, it doesn't take a "weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing".
Was the ozone hole caused by man? Yes.
Has post WWll & nuclear testing poisoned the earth and contributed to hundreds of thousands of deaths? Yes.
https://www.ctbto.org/nuclear-testing/the-effects-of-nuclear-testing/general-overview-of-theeffects-of-nuclear-testing/
Are the oceans becoming acidified and the coral reefs bleached? Yes
Are there islands of plastic in the Pacific ocean? yes?
Are the worlds oceans over fished? Yes
Does the pollution in dozens of cities kill people every year? yes
Is ocean fish now dangerous to eat, as in only eat in limited amounts? Yes
But do we have anything to do with melting glaciers, animals being effected, islanders having to leave their islands, etc.? NO of course not, we are innocent! and some magical new technology will save us, or Elon Musk will take us to Mars.




My sentiments exactly. That's a major part of the point I'm trying to make.


--------------------
Vi Veri Universum Vivus Vici

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Re: The psychology of climate change denial [Re: bodhisatta]
    #25636929 -

bodhisatta said:
When the deserts formed if people were around they would be blaming their technology. When the ice ages came if people were around they would blame their technology.
Glaciers melt and we blame our technology.

I see absolutely no reason why we shouldn't adamantly control and reduce our pollution but the cause and effect game has little power in arguments so it should be abandoned imo with the focus on just being less of shit as a species.



Agreed. I don't believe or not believe AGW therefore I'm a skeptic. Sitting on the fence makes me a non-believer. As a logical extension I also don't "know" whether or not AGW is True. I tend to point out potential flaws in AGW because there are plenty of AGW proponents... backed by 97% of scientists of course.

Though, things are not as they ever were. Rivers are flowing with trash to the point you can't see the water. Smog covers whole cities. The Amazon continues to be cleared at increasing rates. More asphalt, more buildings, more farms, more nuclear accidents, gaping holes in the Earth, entire mountains scalped, dry river beds, loss of natural habitat, loss of biodiversity. And the oil and coal won't last forever. Neither will the phosphorus reserves, the rare earth elements, the steel, the gold, silver, copper, etc. At the current growth rate it would be optimistic to suggest that we had at least several hundred years before primary resource acquisition becomes problematic.

Our need to get off limited and costly fuel sources has never been more great, but CO2 is not one of the things I need (or am able) to point to, to explain why. The effect of technology and large numbers of humans is obvious to anyone who can look and see. We can melt back into nature or we can truly rise above it. We cannot continue forever to walk the Earth as we do today using greater and greater amounts of limited resources. And yet it has been such energy sources that have pushed humanity toward what one might call the technological singularity that can potentially change the paradigm of energy acquisition which would change almost everything. Fixing CO2 would/will be a byproduct of such a story, but also plays a major role that represents humanity saving Earth from it's natural fate, rather than or in addition to an anthropomorphic fate.

If we melt back into nature, it would only be a matter of time until the wilderness had taken back over and life would continue as it ever has, to whatever extent it is able. Eventually, perhaps as soon as a few million years CO2 levels will drop below 150ppm and the biological phase of the living Earth will be fairly done, though a heavenly ELE could potentially extend life on Earth 50 million years or more, another scenario which is desirously avoidable. If we rise above nature we can stall the carbon clock and extend the natural life of Earth to perhaps billions of years.


--------------------
rahz

comfort pleasure power love     truth awareness peace I am      I feel      I do     I love  I speak    I see    I know

why there is reality and patterned, law-like consistency at all, rather than noise or non-reality is not a question physics answers. It's a question physics presupposes an answer to in order to provide other answers.

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Re: The psychology of climate change denial [Re: Rahz]
    #25637321 -

Rahz said:
Though, things are not as they ever were.



Can we be sure of such claims? Do we know everything that's contributed to all of the extinction events?

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