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SpecialEd
+ one
Registered: 01/30/03
Posts: 6,220
Loc: : Gringo
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Probability...
#2183025  12/16/03 05:36 PM (13 years, 9 months ago) 


When you learn about probability in math class, it seems as though there is an unexpressed assertion that probability has bearing and influence on the outcome of events.
flip a coin
two possible outcomes, heads or tails
one favorable outcome, tails
so there is a 1 in 2 chance the coin lands on tails right?
Wrong
In a controlled environment, where the coin is flipped from the same height with the same amount of force, and it is flipped from the same side every time, it will always land on tails.
Something else that bothers me is luck. You shoot a basket from 20 feet with your eyes closed. People say it was a lucky shot.
Luck?
what is luck? a benelovent force that acts upon physical objects, altering the outcome. No, the shot was made because the ball was thrown at the right angle with the right amount of force. Again, could be repeated in a closed system.
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Seuss
Error: divide byzero
Registered: 04/27/01
Posts: 23,480
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Re: Probability... [Re: SpecialEd]
#2183149  12/16/03 06:06 PM (13 years, 9 months ago) 


> When you learn about probability in math class, it seems as though there is an unexpressed assertion that probability has bearing and influence on the outcome of events.
I studied probability in a couple of different classes, logic, statistics, engineering statistics, advanced statistics, abomb, mechanics, ..., and none of them claimed that probability influences the outcome of events. If I flip a coin and it comes up heads this time, it has no impact whatsoever on the outcome of the next flip of the coin. Probability is simply the likelyhood that an event will occur.
> In a controlled environment, where the coin is flipped from the same height with the same amount of force, and it is flipped from the same side every time, it will always land on tails.
This isn't 100% true, though I see the point you are making. It is possible that the coin flip can result in a quasistable state leading to a nondeterministic result. This is where pure random numbers come from. People have made careers out of studying these types of systems.
> what is luck?
Luck is the opposite of skill, perhaps? I used to shoot around .75 moa at 100 yards, benchrest. I could group five shots within a US nickle almost every single time. People that would see me shoot never claimed that I was a lucky shot, but rather that I was a good shot. On the opposite end, I would see people shooting 5+ moa finally hit a bullseye... nobody ever told them what a great shot they were, but rather how they got lucky on that last one. *shrug* food for thought.
 Just another spore in the wind.

SpecialEd
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Registered: 01/30/03
Posts: 6,220
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Re: Probability... [Re: Seuss]
#2183171  12/16/03 06:09 PM (13 years, 9 months ago) 


Quote:
I could group five shots within a US nickle almost every single time.
wind aside, it's because you were aiming at the same spot those five times.
Quote:
On the opposite end, I would see people shooting 5+ moa finally hit a bullseye...
it's because they were aiming at the bullseye that last time.
see my point?
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SpecialEd
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Re: Probability... [Re: Seuss]
#2183189  12/16/03 06:13 PM (13 years, 9 months ago) 


Quote:
If I flip a coin and it comes up heads this time, it has no impact whatsoever on the outcome of the next flip of the coin. Probability is simply the likelyhood that an event will occur.
The assertion is that the coin will land on heads half of the time and it will land on tails half of the time, because that logically follows the probability. I know nobody ever came out and told me this, but it did make it sound like "If it lands on heads the first time, it will probably land on tails the second time." But, it's like you said
Quote:
If I flip a coin and it comes up heads this time, it has no impact whatsoever on the outcome of the next flip of the coin.
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lucid
Jack's AlteredConsciousness
Registered: 03/29/03
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Re: Probability... [Re: SpecialEd]
#2183226  12/16/03 06:26 PM (13 years, 9 months ago) 


Quote:
SpecialEd said:
In a controlled environment, where the coin is flipped from the same height with the same amount of force, and it is flipped from the same side every time, it will always land on tails.
you're getting into determinism now. was it heisenburg (sp ?) uncertainity principle that states that you can never "exactly" measure the position and velocity of a partical at a given moment in time ? accordinly it would follow that the environment "cannot" be controlled to the extent that it is exactly reproducable...
 "nomind unthinks nothought..."

Druginduced
Stranger
Registered: 01/12/03
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Re: Probability... [Re: Seuss]
#2183579  12/16/03 08:29 PM (13 years, 9 months ago) 


Quote:
Seuss said:It is possible that the coin flip can result in a quasistable state leading to a nondeterministic result.
Can you further explain what this means please?

EvilGir
Im the on coming storm
Registered: 11/26/01
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Well dosent the coin be both head and tails until it viewed. The quantom effect.
 Fighting the man the best way I can.

trendal
King of Asides
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Re: Probability... [Re: SpecialEd]
#2184211  12/17/03 01:02 AM (13 years, 9 months ago) 


n a controlled environment, where the coin is flipped from the same height with the same amount of force, and it is flipped from the same side every time, it will always land on tails.
lucid had it right, here. Chaos theory also comes into play  there are millions of extremely small effects which over the long run completely ruin the "perfect predictability" of your system.

iamhimheisme
jesus christ
Registered: 10/28/03
Posts: 258
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Re: Probability... [Re: SpecialEd]
#2185742  12/17/03 06:26 PM (13 years, 9 months ago) 


said seuss: 'probability is simply the likelyhood that an event will occur'
imo, one of the most important aspects of probability is the fact that it is applicable, and variable, to any and every situation. what i mean is, there is no probability for just flipping a coin anywhere. theres a probability for flipping a coin under 'normal' conditions, and theres another probability under the controlled conditions you mention.
luck is just the occurance of something statistically improbable. in the various applications of luck, from basketball to finding a brick of herb under a christmas tree, while it is obviously the result of certain forces, its still improbable and since its benefitial, also lucky. so i guess what i mean to say is luck requires improbability and anyone's benefit. while others may see an event as lucky, a person is only lucky if they benefit from such an event in some way.
edit: forgot to throw in a quote for lucid...
lets see, how can i explain this without blowing your mind...heisenbergs uncertainly principle tells us that at a specific curvature of space, knowledge can be transferred into energy, or, and this is key now, matter.
Edited by iamhimheisme (12/17/03 06:35 PM)

lucid
Jack's AlteredConsciousness
Registered: 03/29/03
Posts: 6,319
Loc: up on the bidet
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Quote:
iamhimheisme said: lets see, how can i explain this without blowing your mind...heisenbergs uncertainly principle tells us that at a specific curvature of space, knowledge can be transferred into energy, or, and this is key now, matter.
I think u just fried my noodle
 "nomind unthinks nothought..."

iamhimheisme
jesus christ
Registered: 10/28/03
Posts: 258
Loc: where i dont want to be
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Re: Probability... [Re: lucid]
#2186275  12/17/03 09:40 PM (13 years, 9 months ago) 


and i didnt even have to use proper spelling if you know who said it i'll give you 5

lucid
Jack's AlteredConsciousness
Registered: 03/29/03
Posts: 6,319
Loc: up on the bidet
Last seen: 3 years, 10 months


Einstotle ?
 "nomind unthinks nothought..."
 




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