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InvisibleSwami
Eggshell Walker

Registered: 01/19/00
Posts: 15,413
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Of odds, probability, coincidence and logic...
    #1565216 - 05/21/03 10:36 AM (14 years, 2 months ago)

A woman in New Jersey won the lottery twice! "Wow, what a coincidence!" "That is unbelievable! The odds of that happening are one trillion to one!"

On a lesser scale, many here view personal events as being synchronous or mystically arranged or as being blessed.

Herein lies the "problem". The odds of the New Jersey woman winning the lottery AFTER THE FACT is one in one (100%). The odds of her winning twice BEFORE THE FACT is one in a trillion. However; and here is the part that many miss; the odds of ANY RANDOM PERSON winning the lottery twice over a 15 year period is only about one in thirty, which hardly rates any comment whatsoever.


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The proof is in the pudding.


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InvisibleOlgualion
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Re: Of odds, probability, coincidence and logic... [Re: Swami]
    #1565251 - 05/21/03 11:03 AM (14 years, 2 months ago)

How about the number 911 coming out on september 11th in New York's lottery one year after '911'. Coincidence? I don't believe in them! yeah, i know 1 in 1000 arent bad odds, but when you consider the circumstances surrounding that date...


--------------------
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See the future...


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InvisibleinfidelGOD
illusion

Registered: 04/18/02
Posts: 3,040
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Re: Of odds, probability, coincidence and logic... [Re: Swami]
    #1565266 - 05/21/03 11:20 AM (14 years, 2 months ago)

hmmmm... here's some more probability: (it's kind of related)

lets say you flipped a quartar 99 times and by pure chance it turned up heads all 99 times. what is the probability that the 100th toss would come up heads? people might say "well the odds will eventually catch up with you so it'll probably be tails this time"... WRONG, the probability is STILL 50/50. it's always 50/50 no matter what happened in the past.



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InvisibleSwami
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Re: Of odds, probability, coincidence and logic... [Re: Olgualion]
    #1565275 - 05/21/03 11:27 AM (14 years, 2 months ago)

How about the number 911 coming out on september 11th in New York's lottery one year after '911'. Coincidence? I don't believe in them! yeah, i know 1 in 1000 arent bad odds, but when you consider the circumstances surrounding that date...

The odds are far, far less than 1/1000; in fact they are approaching parity.

Here you make two GIANT assumptions:

1. That the lottery number of a whole state is in any way related to the date of an event that took place in one city.

2. That an anniversary date has any universal meaning.

There were unlimited 911 numbers floating around to choose from (sports scores, taxi numbers, addresses, check numbers, etc.) and many "significant" dates from which to choose them.


--------------------



The proof is in the pudding.


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InvisibleSwami
Eggshell Walker

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Posts: 15,413
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Re: Of odds, probability, coincidence and logic... [Re: infidelGOD]
    #1565279 - 05/21/03 11:29 AM (14 years, 2 months ago)

it's always 50/50 no matter what happened in the past.

Assuming the coin is unbiased (balanced) nor trickery on the part of the flipper.


--------------------



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OfflineAlbino_Jesus
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Re: Of odds, probability, coincidence and logic... [Re: infidelGOD]
    #1565292 - 05/21/03 11:34 AM (14 years, 2 months ago)

the odds of anything happening, ever, are 50/50  :smile:


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The only difference between the Republican and Democratic parties is the velocities with which their knees hit the floor when corporations knock on their door.
-Ralph Nader



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Anonymous

Re: Of odds, probability, coincidence and logic... [Re: Swami]
    #1565314 - 05/21/03 11:46 AM (14 years, 2 months ago)

There is no "chance" when flipping a coin speaking in terms of some mystical  force where the coin could go either way, heads or tails.  The outcome is determined by factors controlled by the laws of physics.  A coin flipped the exact same way will have the same outcome over and over again if all things remain equal.

Science says it, I believe it, that settles it.

:grin:


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InvisibleSwami
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Re: Of odds, probability, coincidence and logic... [Re: Albino_Jesus]
    #1565315 - 05/21/03 11:46 AM (14 years, 2 months ago)

Really?! The odds of me spending a night with Faith Hill are 50/50?


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The proof is in the pudding.


Edited by Swami (05/21/03 11:52 AM)


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OfflineAlbino_Jesus
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Re: Of odds, probability, coincidence and logic... [Re: Swami]
    #1565316 - 05/21/03 11:47 AM (14 years, 2 months ago)

well, either you will, or you won't  :smile:


--------------------
The only difference between the Republican and Democratic parties is the velocities with which their knees hit the floor when corporations knock on their door.
-Ralph Nader



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InvisibleSwami
Eggshell Walker

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Re: Of odds, probability, coincidence and logic... [Re: Albino_Jesus]
    #1565322 - 05/21/03 11:49 AM (14 years, 2 months ago)

Yeah, but 50/50 implies EQUAL probability for either event, not merely two possible outcomes.


--------------------



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InvisibleinfidelGOD
illusion

Registered: 04/18/02
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Re: Of odds, probability, coincidence and logic... [Re: ]
    #1565329 - 05/21/03 11:51 AM (14 years, 2 months ago)

but nothing can remain equal, even the act of flipping a coin will physically change the coin itself.. so the experiment can't be repeated EXACTLY, and so we have this nasty thing called RANDOMNESS.



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OfflineAlbino_Jesus
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Re: Of odds, probability, coincidence and logic... [Re: Swami]
    #1565330 - 05/21/03 11:52 AM (14 years, 2 months ago)

well it is my belief that since there really is no way to determine the odds for this, then the odds are 50/50 until you either fuck her, or die


--------------------
The only difference between the Republican and Democratic parties is the velocities with which their knees hit the floor when corporations knock on their door.
-Ralph Nader



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InvisibleOlgualion
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Re: Of odds, probability, coincidence and logic... [Re: Swami]
    #1565332 - 05/21/03 11:52 AM (14 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

1. That the lottery number of a whole state is in any way related to the date of an event that took place in one city.




Afaik, they don't have a nyc lottery, only a state one.

Quote:

2. That an anniversary date has any universal meaning.




Universal... absololutely not. It is, for the most part, inconsequential and irrelevant on that scale. But, on a relative scale... How many people do you know who celebrate a birthday? There are still many connections to this 'realm' after death.

For the most part, 'energy' on the 'other side' could care less about most of the happenings of this world. But there are still connections, and sometimes little things are thrown at us for reassurances that things will be 'okay'.

EVERYTHING IS RELATIVE!!!


--------------------
Study the past...
See the future...


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Anonymous

Re: Of odds, probability, coincidence and logic... [Re: infidelGOD]
    #1565334 - 05/21/03 11:53 AM (14 years, 2 months ago)

:grin:

Nice catch. :wink:

You should have at least let others have a try at it though.

:grin:


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InvisibleSwami
Eggshell Walker

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Re: Of odds, probability, coincidence and logic... [Re: Olgualion]
    #1565350 - 05/21/03 11:57 AM (14 years, 2 months ago)

Afaik, they don't have a nyc lottery, only a state one.

And...? The NY State border is totally artificial. Why not include the California Lottery (because the city and state have the same name?) or why the lottery at all? How is a gambling event in any way linked to a terrorist action?


--------------------



The proof is in the pudding.


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Anonymous

Re: Of odds, probability, coincidence and logic... [Re: Swami]
    #1565358 - 05/21/03 11:59 AM (14 years, 2 months ago)

And time is an illusion.

:grin:


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InvisibleSwami
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Re: Of odds, probability, coincidence and logic... [Re: ]
    #1565369 - 05/21/03 12:04 PM (14 years, 2 months ago)

But a very, very powerful one. *Checks watch* Oh, shit - late for work!


--------------------



The proof is in the pudding.


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InvisibleOlgualion
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Re: Of odds, probability, coincidence and logic... [Re: Swami]
    #1565372 - 05/21/03 12:04 PM (14 years, 2 months ago)

What significance would it have if that number came out anywhere else?? It would mean nothing! But like I said, there are many more connections between concrete things in that state and energies on the other side pertaining to that event.


--------------------
Study the past...
See the future...


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InvisibleOlgualion
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Re: Of odds, probability, coincidence and logic... [Re: ]
    #1565378 - 05/21/03 12:08 PM (14 years, 2 months ago)

Yes time is definitely relative.  You can thank gravity for that. :laugh:  Pure energy feels no gravity, or time... 


--------------------
Study the past...
See the future...


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InvisibleSwami
Eggshell Walker

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Re: Of odds, probability, coincidence and logic... [Re: Olgualion]
    #1565380 - 05/21/03 12:08 PM (14 years, 2 months ago)

What significance would it have if that number came out anywhere else?

To me it would be the same - totally insignificant. You fail to show any linkage (except in your perception) as to how a gambling event 52 weeks later is in any way related.


--------------------



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