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Only about half of Americans now think President George W. Bush will be reelected next year, a considerable drop from earlier surveys. The barrage coming from nine Democratic presidential contenders may, at least in part, have precipitated the decline.

In the latest FOX News national poll of registered voters, those believing President Bush will win in 2004 stands at 49 percent, down from 61 percent in May 2003 and 60 percent in April 2002. The decline was not only among Democrats, but also Republicans. Four months ago, 85 percent of Republicans thought Bush would be reelected, while 72 percent believe so now.

The poll, conducted September 9-10 by Opinion Dynamics Corporation (search), also finds that a majority thinks the Democratic presidential candidates are spending more time "attacking" President Bush and his policies (59 percent) than "explaining" their own policy positions (14 percent). Fully 79 percent of Republicans think the Democratic hopefuls are spending more time attacking, as do 49 percent of independents. Even Democrats are almost twice as likely to think their party?s candidates are doing more "attacking" (43 percent) than "explaining" (22 percent).

"Certainly the last few weeks have not been kind to the Bush campaign," comments Opinion Dynamics president John Gorman. "Iraq, the economy and the budget deficits have been big stories. And the Democratic candidates for president have seemed to grow more aggressive. Unlike the behavior of Democrats in 2002, when they were reluctant to attack President Bush, they now see vulnerability."

When asked which Democrat would win the party?s nomination, the top choice among Democrats, Republicans and independents was former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean (search), followed by Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry (search). Even though New York Sen. Hillary Clinton (search) has said she will not run in 2004, as many voters think she will be the Democratic nominee as think (announced candidate) Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman (search) will be. At this early stage, four months before the first primary election and 14 months before the general election, over half say they do not know which candidate will win the nomination.

Since last month, Kerry has gained four points and currently stands at 17 percent among Democrats when asked which candidate they would vote for if the primary were held today. That puts Kerry ever so slightly ahead of Lieberman (16 percent) and Dean (14 percent).

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The Prime Minister faces a complete breakdown in his relations with large sections of the Labour Party after a poll of members revealed a remarkable level of disquiet about his leadership and the war on Iraq.

The YouGov poll of more than 300 party members over the last three days found that more than 40 per cent want Tony Blair to stand down before the next election and nearly 60 per cent believe he was wrong to sanction war on Iraq. More than 80 per cent believe he exaggerated the case for war either deliberately (37 per cent) or unintentionally (44 per cent). Less than 20 per cent believe there was no exaggeration.

Revealing that the issue of trust has poisoned the Prime Minister's relationship with many of his own party, more than a third said they either do not trust the Prime Minister 'at all' or 'very much'.

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recalcitrant said:

Well. I like the idea of Bush losing support. but Anna might be right about what he's likely to do to get the religious right back on his side.

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If my father and yuppie siblings can renounce their faith in GW, so can anyone

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Doctor J, tell me about this.

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Doctor J, tell me about this.

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