cortex said:

So what do you guys think?  Let's [...] try to avoid apocalyptic Terminator-esque scenarios

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JT said:

highly adaptable and self-monitoring programs, i'm sure we'll see those. the singularity requires much more than that though. it assumes that through some random event these programs will become self-aware or develop intuition. so far, this is completely hypothetical, and we have nothing more than our own consciousness and speculation to say that it is even remotely possible..

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I think self-awareness issue isn't the crux of the problem necessarily.  The question of whether the technology would harm us through unforseen consequences and whether we could stop this from occuring seems more fundamental. If a she-robot with a skin-tight bodysuit starts coming after you, I don't know if I'd care whether she's concious or not.




Sorry cortex 

cortex said:

I'm going to assume most of you know what I'm talking about when I talk about the "Technological Singularity" which is tentatively scheduled to occur within the next decade or so.  Aside from Moore's Law, the most convincing argument for the approaching Singularity goes something like this:

Humans are constantly creating better, faster, and smaller machines, particularly in terms of computational machines, nanotechnology, and AI.  At some point in the near (or distant) future, we will have created a machine so intelligent, fast, and powerful, that it will itself be able to create yet more intelligent, faster, and smaller machines, which will then go on to create even better machines, etc.  At this point, the rate of change in terms of power and intelligence in these machine begins to increase at a double-exponential rate.  The machines will change our existence so rapidly, and so profoundly that we cannot begin to imagine human civilization after this point.

There is a pretty convincing book devoted to this subject called The Singularity is Near by Ray Kurtzweil, but IMO goes too much into trying to predict the effects of the singularity, rather than just trying to convince that it will occur.  It offers great arguments to the latter, but the former to me are simply more of the same old future-predicting the likes of which one sees at Epcot Center in the 1960s.

So what do you guys think?  Let's discuss the "Technological Singularity" but let's try to avoid apocalyptic Terminator-esque scenarios, and completely ignore the inane "Mayan Calender" 2012 bullshit.  Lets also assume that we cannot predict future technology, it has never worked (we don't have flying cars, our clothes don't dry themselves, and the internet exists).  What do you guys think about the Technological Singularity event iteself?

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JT said:

highly adaptable and self-monitoring programs, i'm sure we'll see those. the singularity requires much more than that though. it assumes that through some random event these programs will become self-aware or develop intuition. so far, this is completely hypothetical, and we have nothing more than our own consciousness and speculation to say that it is even remotely possible..

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moi said:

moore's law shows nothing. it only shows that technology is advancing exponentially fast. but there's another phenomenon in nature, showing that every natural exponential grow comes to an end relatively fast. it's not really a "singularity". it's just gonna be a fucking lot of transistors. according to moore's law.

i dont know if computers will or even can become "good" enough to create better computers. do these people have convincing arguments for that? cause one could say that to create a better computer one needs creativity.

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cortex said:

No way will human wait for evolution to catch up, it is far, far to slow.

I think we will supplement our biological bodies and minds more and more with technology, rather than relying on the very slow processes of nature.

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Perhaps we'll be able to genetically engineer the human body so that our brains' become 10,000x more powerful, or perhaps even more powerful than that.

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I believe time travels faster as the singularity approaches.

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Quote:

I believe time travels faster as the singularity approaches.

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shroom-jitsu said:

Unless you've figured out how to unify the underlying mathemetics of quantum mechanics and gravitation, all of it is just "belief" or "opinion" regardless.  Every serious discussion about time depends on an understanding of these "roots" of humananity's collective understanding of the physics governing our universe.  How can you understand a theory or phenonomon based upon man's perception of time without understanding the foundations of time itself?

At least, like, that's what, like, "I believe".

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Quote:

Finally, I don't know why you've concluded the poster wasn't asking for arguments.  I imagine if he was soliciting prophecies he would have gone elsewhere and avoided the science forum.

I believe quantum mechanics compells you to leave this forum.

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johnm214 said:

shroom-jitsu said:

Unless you've figured out how to unify the underlying mathemetics of quantum mechanics and gravitation, all of it is just "belief" or "opinion" regardless.  Every serious discussion about time depends on an understanding of these "roots" of humananity's collective understanding of the physics governing our universe.  How can you understand a theory or phenonomon based upon man's perception of time without understanding the foundations of time itself?

At least, like, that's what, like, "I believe".

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Why would you need to understand the 'foundations of time itself' to use time? 

Further, why in the world would you need to understand or solve quantum mechanics to make useful predictions?  Once again, I don't understand them and have never had a problem using science to my advantage.

I'm unsure what your other point is as it is accepted by everyone that things said by you are believed by you- your expounding on this concept is not helpful.  The point is, declaring some neo-mystical nonsense with the sole-supporting evidence being that you believe it, which you declared upfront, is not helpful.

Finally, I don't know why you've concluded the poster wasn't asking for arguments.  I imagine if he was soliciting prophecies he would have gone elsewhere and avoided the science forum.

I believe quantum mechanics compells you to leave this forum.

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Why Quantum Physics and Gravitation?  Because the math that we rely upon to explain micro atomic-level behavior of matter and the marco all-encompassing effects of gravitation ARE INCOMPATIBLE.  For you "Belief-Nazi's" out there, that means that until this mathematical descrepancy is corrected, everything we think we "know" about light, energy, time, space, distance, etc, is JUST A BELIEF.  Or THEORY if you prefer - aka, can't be proven.

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Quote:

JUST A BELIEF.  Or THEORY if you prefer - aka, can't be proven.

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beliefs can be proven.  The velocity of light is one such belief already mentioned that has been proven.