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Re: Global temperature change discrepancy 8000 year plateau [Re: ChuangTzu]
    #9555290 -



Quote:
This figure shows the long-term evolution of oxygen isotope ratios during the Phanerozoic eon as measured in fossils, reported by Veizer et al. (1999), and updated online in 2004 [http://www.science.uottawa.ca/geology/isotope_data/]. Such ratios reflect both the local temperature at the site of deposition and global changes associated with the extent of permanent continental glaciation. As such, relative changes in oxygen isotope ratios can be interpreted as rough changes in climate. Quantitative conversion between this data and direct temperature changes is a complicated process subject to many systematic uncertainties, however it is estimated that each 1 part per thousand change in δ18O represents roughly a 1.5-2 °C change in tropical sea surface temperatures (Veizer et al. 2000).

Also shown on this figure are blue bars showing periods when geological criteria (Frakes et al. 1992) indicate cold temperatures and glaciation as reported by Veizer et al. (2000). The Jurassic-Cretaceous period, plotted as a lighter blue bar, was intrepreted as a "cool" period on geological grounds, but the configuration of continents at that time appears to have prevented the formation of large scale ice sheets.

All data presented here have been adjusted to 2004 ICS geologic timescale [http://www.stratigraphy.org/geowhen/]. The "short-term average" was constructed by applying a σ = 3 Myr Gaussian weighted moving average to the original 16,692 reported measurements. The gray bar is the associated 95% statistical uncertainty in the moving average. The "long-term average" is a σ = 15 Myr Gaussian average of the short-term record (see notes).

On geologic time scales, the largest shift in oxygen isotope ratios is due to the slow radiogenic evolution of the mantle. A variety of proposals exist for dealing with this, and are subject to a variety of systematic biases, but the most common approach is simply to suppress long-term trends in the record. This approach was applied in this case by subtracting a quadratic polynomial fit to the short-term averages. As a result, it is not possible to draw any conclusion about very long-term (>200 Myr) changes in temperatures from this data alone. However, it is usually believed that temperatures during the present cold period and during the Cretaceous thermal maximum are not greatly different from cold and hot periods during most of the rest the Phanerozoic. However, recently this has been disputed by Royer et al. (2004), who suggest that the highs and lows in the early part of the Phanerozoic were both significantly warmer than their recent counterparts.

Common symbols for geologic periods are plotted at the top and bottom of the figure for reference.



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Phanerozoic_Climate_Change.png




Quote:
This figures shows estimates of the changes in carbon dioxide concentrations during the Phanerozoic. Three estimates are based on geochemical modeling: GEOCARB III (Berner and Kothavala 2001), COPSE (Bergmann et al. 2004) and Rothman (2001). These are compared to the carbon dioxide measurement database of Royer et al. (2004) and a 30 Myr filtered average of those data. Error envelopes are shown when they were available. The right hand scale shows the ratio of these measurements to the estimated average for the last several million years (the Quaternary). Customary labels for the periods of geologic time appear at the bottom.

Direct determination of past carbon dioxide levels relies primarily on the interpretation of carbon isotopic ratios in fossilized soils (paleosols) or the shells of phytoplankton and through interpretation of stomatal density in fossil plants. Each of these is subject to substantial systematic uncertainty.

Estimates of carbon dioxide changes through geochemical modeling instead rely on quantifying the geological sources and sinks for carbon dioxide over long time scales particularly: volcanic inputs, erosion and carbonate deposition. As such, these models are largely independent of direct measurements of carbon dioxide.

Both measurements and models show considerable uncertainty and variation; however, all point to carbon dioxide levels in the past that have been signifcantly higher than they are at present.



http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/76/Phanerozoic_Carbon_Dioxide.png


Happy?

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Re: Global temperature change discrepancy 8000 year plateau [Re: lIllIIIllIlIIlIlIIllIllIIl]
    #9564375 -

adjust said:
Happy?



About what?  None of those graphs even show what you were talking about.

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Re: Global temperature change discrepancy 8000 year plateau [Re: ChuangTzu]
    #9566481 -

yea I have no idea how your claiming that these graphs prove temperature and CO2 are not related. True they don't correlate directly on the macro level, but I think this is because of larger forces at work. Like the arrangement of continents for example.


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"Have you ever seen what happens when a grenade goes off in a school? Do you really know what you’re doing when you order shock and awe? Are you prepared to kneel beside a dying soldier and tell him why he went to Iraq, or why he went to any war?"
"The things that are done in the name of the shareholder are, to me, as terrifying as the things that are done—dare I say it—in the name of God. Montesquieu said, "There have never been so many civil wars as in the Kingdom of God." And I begin to feel that’s true. The shareholder is the excuse for everything."
- Author and former M6/M5 agent John le Carré on Democracy Now.
Conquer's Club

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Re: Global temperature change discrepancy 8000 year plateau [Re: ScavengerType]
    #9566493 -

> yea I have no idea how

I beg to differ.  When it comes to math/science, ChuangTzu knows what he is talking about.


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Just another spore in the wind.

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Re: Global temperature change discrepancy 8000 year plateau [Re: Seuss]
    #9566593 -

I think you misunderstood. I was agreeing with ChangTzu and the body of my comment was addressing adjust. Furthermore there was no mention of mathematics in this thread.


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"Have you ever seen what happens when a grenade goes off in a school? Do you really know what you’re doing when you order shock and awe? Are you prepared to kneel beside a dying soldier and tell him why he went to Iraq, or why he went to any war?"
"The things that are done in the name of the shareholder are, to me, as terrifying as the things that are done—dare I say it—in the name of God. Montesquieu said, "There have never been so many civil wars as in the Kingdom of God." And I begin to feel that’s true. The shareholder is the excuse for everything."
- Author and former M6/M5 agent John le Carré on Democracy Now.
Conquer's Club

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Re: Global temperature change discrepancy 8000 year plateau [Re: ChuangTzu]
    #9567980 -

ChuangTzu said:
About what?  None of those graphs even show what you were talking about.



Yeah they do.

I said CO2 levels are the lowest they've been in hundreds of millions of years, it shows that.

I said the earth has only had ice at it's poles 3 or 4 times in the past few hundred million years, it shows that.

I said the current climate is more consistent with an ice age than a warm period, it shows that.

You might not agree with where the info is coming from but I did give you information how those charts were made and from which scientific studies they were drawn, which is what you asked for.

:shrug:

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Re: Global temperature change discrepancy 8000 year plateau [Re: lIllIIIllIlIIlIlIIllIllIIl]
    #9568054 -

Yea, but you compared it to such a broad scale as to make it completely irrelevant to the original topic. The pre-industrial average isn't the lowest ever, the Neogene average is.


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"Have you ever seen what happens when a grenade goes off in a school? Do you really know what you’re doing when you order shock and awe? Are you prepared to kneel beside a dying soldier and tell him why he went to Iraq, or why he went to any war?"
"The things that are done in the name of the shareholder are, to me, as terrifying as the things that are done—dare I say it—in the name of God. Montesquieu said, "There have never been so many civil wars as in the Kingdom of God." And I begin to feel that’s true. The shareholder is the excuse for everything."
- Author and former M6/M5 agent John le Carré on Democracy Now.
Conquer's Club

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Re: Global temperature change discrepancy 8000 year plateau [Re: lIllIIIllIlIIlIlIIllIllIIl]
    #9568071 -

Somewhere along the line I mixed up you and the OP.  I was originally addressing their graphs and their claim that an "8000 year plateau" should be considered unusual.  I guess I quick replied the first time and it made it look like I was talking to you and when you replied I didn't notice that you weren't the OP. 

Honestly, I haven't even evaluated any of the other claims in this thread since I'm still hung up on the original "plateau" claim...

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Re: Global temperature change discrepancy 8000 year plateau [Re: ChuangTzu]
    #9568080 -

Ok, understood. :wink:

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Re: Global temperature change discrepancy 8000 year plateau [Re: ScavengerType]
    #9569009 -

> I think you misunderstood

Ah, indeed.  I thought your statement was towards ChuangTzu's comments, rather than in support of them.


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Just another spore in the wind.

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Re: Global temperature change discrepancy 8000 year plateau [Re: Seuss]
    #9569097 -

So we're all in agreement now? Let us celebrate with a beer!

:beer:

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Re: Global temperature change discrepancy 8000 year plateau [Re: lIllIIIllIlIIlIlIIllIllIIl]
    #9580939 -

ChangTzu: Looking at the historical data I've shown I don't know how this could confuse you. There are definitely no plateaus of this evenness for this length. This plateau is generally accepted from many anthropologists as the origin of civilization and modern man, because it kept sea levels (relatively) constant and helped agriculture by providing (relatively) constant growing conditions.

Adjust: What does your long-term data have to do with the OP discussion? I get what your saying about continents but that's quite seriously long-term. How does your data and graphs relate to the original discussion?


--------------------
"Have you ever seen what happens when a grenade goes off in a school? Do you really know what you’re doing when you order shock and awe? Are you prepared to kneel beside a dying soldier and tell him why he went to Iraq, or why he went to any war?"
"The things that are done in the name of the shareholder are, to me, as terrifying as the things that are done—dare I say it—in the name of God. Montesquieu said, "There have never been so many civil wars as in the Kingdom of God." And I begin to feel that’s true. The shareholder is the excuse for everything."
- Author and former M6/M5 agent John le Carré on Democracy Now.
Conquer's Club

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Re: Global temperature change discrepancy 8000 year plateau [Re: ScavengerType]
    #9581045 -

ScavengerType said:
ChangTzu: Looking at the historical data I've shown I don't know how this could confuse you.



When did I say I was confused?

Quote:
There are definitely no plateaus of this evenness for this length.



I could draw another graph with 5 plateaus and you haven't given me any indication that your graph would be any more credible.

Quote:
This plateau is generally accepted from many anthropologists as the origin of civilization and modern man



a) That's an appeal to the authority of someone who's not even an authority.
b) (A implies B) does not imply (B implies A), and similarly,
c) (A is necessary for B) does not imply that (A is sufficient for B).

So, I'll ask you again: how do you know that such temperature plateaus--whether we're in one or not--are unusual?

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Re: Global temperature change discrepancy 8000 year plateau [Re: ChuangTzu]
    #9581082 -

Well Tim Flannery, author of "The Weather Makers" asserts that it's unusual as well as a geology prof in (The Teaching Company)TTC's "How Earth Works" lessons Micheal E Wysession. They both claimed it was widely accepted to be the reason for modern civilization and a significant event in recent geological history.

I believe they are both authorities in their field, yes. So I suppose it is an appeal to authority.


--------------------
"Have you ever seen what happens when a grenade goes off in a school? Do you really know what you’re doing when you order shock and awe? Are you prepared to kneel beside a dying soldier and tell him why he went to Iraq, or why he went to any war?"
"The things that are done in the name of the shareholder are, to me, as terrifying as the things that are done—dare I say it—in the name of God. Montesquieu said, "There have never been so many civil wars as in the Kingdom of God." And I begin to feel that’s true. The shareholder is the excuse for everything."
- Author and former M6/M5 agent John le Carré on Democracy Now.
Conquer's Club

Edited by ScavengerType (01/10/09 03:41 AM)

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Re: Global temperature change discrepancy 8000 year plateau [Re: ScavengerType]
    #9581301 -

One interesting thing I would like to mention, a few months ago I got really interested in Neanderthal research, and read basically all the current information out there.

Something that comes up again and again is how adaptable the Neanderthals were based on climate data from the time they existed, which researchers claim varied considerably. Some "large climate shifts" occurred over as little as 100 years, according to what I read.

Unfortunately none of the articles compared these changes to current climate data, but it's interesting nonetheless.


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