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Global Warming.
    #8535498 -

I no longer believe in anthropogenic climate change.

That's pretty much it.


--------------------
After one comes, through contact with it's administrators, no longer to cherish greatly the law as a remedy in abuses, then the bottle becomes a sovereign means of direct action.  If you cannot throw it at least you can always drink out of it.  - Ernest Hemingway

If it is life that you feel you are missing I can tell you where to find it.  In the law courts, in business, in government.  There is nothing occurring in the streets. Nothing but a dumbshow composed of the helpless and the impotent.    -Cormac MacCarthy

He who learns must suffer. And even in our sleep pain that cannot forget falls drop by drop upon the heart, and in our own despair, against our will, comes wisdom to us by the awful grace of God.  - Aeschylus

Edited by Madtowntripper (06/17/08 10:55 PM)

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Re: Global Warming. [Re: Madtowntripper]
    #8535552 -

And yes, this is a political thread and doesn't need to be moved.

Like it or not, the issue of climate change has become highly politicized and is now a major issue in the campaigns of both presidential campaigns.

Thanks.


--------------------
After one comes, through contact with it's administrators, no longer to cherish greatly the law as a remedy in abuses, then the bottle becomes a sovereign means of direct action.  If you cannot throw it at least you can always drink out of it.  - Ernest Hemingway

If it is life that you feel you are missing I can tell you where to find it.  In the law courts, in business, in government.  There is nothing occurring in the streets. Nothing but a dumbshow composed of the helpless and the impotent.    -Cormac MacCarthy

He who learns must suffer. And even in our sleep pain that cannot forget falls drop by drop upon the heart, and in our own despair, against our will, comes wisdom to us by the awful grace of God.  - Aeschylus

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Re: Global Warming. [Re: Madtowntripper]
    #8535572 -

No kidding, the earth fucks itself up far harder than we do, ever hear of the mount Tambora volcano and the year without a summer.  I mean come on, people are researching new diets to reduce a cows methane output(which is supposedly something equivalent to a cars).  By that logic White castle stores should be shut down.

  I like this, you should get some pissy replies, should be funny.:thumbup:

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Re: Global Warming. [Re: Mush 4 Brains]
    #8535605 -

I have a geophysics degree and am quite familiar with Tambora and other devastating volcanic events.

I'm also familiar with climate records we find in millions of years of rocks and preserved environmental samples that support constantly changing global conditions in the absence of any kind of human activity, many on a scale and at a rate dwarfing what we see happening today.

I do not doubt for a moment that the Earth's temperature is changing.  I believe the general trend is towards are a warmer climate, but you could argue that it is inconclusive, or even that the temperatures are falling.  But I think the consensus is that there is real change happening and that human activity may play some small part.

But I believe that the current climate cycle is part of a wholly natural shift that is and always has been taking place on this planet.  Trying to fight something like this, assuming it's even ethical or well advised to do so, is for all practical purposes impossible.

It's like trying to bail out the ocean with a plastic shovel.  You simply cannot do it.  I am of the informed opinion that many of these "global warming solutions", most notably ethanol production from corn and deep-rock carbon sequestration may in fact cause more, and in some cases much more harm that the natural process' they are intended to "prevent".


--------------------
After one comes, through contact with it's administrators, no longer to cherish greatly the law as a remedy in abuses, then the bottle becomes a sovereign means of direct action.  If you cannot throw it at least you can always drink out of it.  - Ernest Hemingway

If it is life that you feel you are missing I can tell you where to find it.  In the law courts, in business, in government.  There is nothing occurring in the streets. Nothing but a dumbshow composed of the helpless and the impotent.    -Cormac MacCarthy

He who learns must suffer. And even in our sleep pain that cannot forget falls drop by drop upon the heart, and in our own despair, against our will, comes wisdom to us by the awful grace of God.  - Aeschylus

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Re: Global Warming. [Re: Madtowntripper]
    #8535855 -

Madtowntripper said:

But I believe that the current climate cycle is part of a wholly natural shift that is and always has been taking place on this planet.  Trying to fight something like this, assuming it's even ethical or well advised to do so, is for all practical purposes impossible.



Ah yes....

Kudos for delineating the issue as to anthropogenic warming, and for correctly reducing the relevant topics to whether we are to blame and whether we can do shit about it.


The anti global warming, self titled, warriors I meet in person seem to be fools.  They think cuz it snowed in april that the earth isn't warming and such nonsense.  Of course the global warming supporters are the same, with little knowledge.


You've identified the issue though:  what is the evidence that we've caused anything?  Not much.  About all we know is that CO2 appears to positively correlate with temperature and other factoids.  What is the evidence we can do anything to stop it?  I've not seen anything (I'm genuinely interested if anyone knows something)

I too agree the earth is warming, simplest explanation...

What I don't believe is that anyone's demonstrated a way to stop this or that it has anything to do with us.

People shouldn't waste gas and such, but more due to limited supplies.  I just don't need some politician telling the US that we can't open factories here anymore... We don't need to shoot ourselves in the foot over something that isn't certain (and by that I mean whether the US can do a damn thing about it).

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Re: Global Warming. [Re: Madtowntripper]
    #8536225 -

Madtowntripper said:
I no longer believe in anthropogenic climate change.

That's pretty much it.


What convinced you? I'm always interested to see why someone changes their opinion. Not that I knew what it was before.


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Re: Global Warming. [Re: Visionary Tools]
    #8536287 -

As a scientist, I'd hope madtown would answer, as I do, that he doesn't need to be convinced to not believe in a phenomena.  He need only believe that evidence doesn't support it.

I don't think he's said yet that he believes its impossible or that there's proof  warming is not happening as a result of human endeavors.

Someone advancing a theory should have the burden of demonstrating it.

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Re: Global Warming. [Re: johnm214]
    #8536334 -

> About all we know is that CO2 appears to positively correlate with temperature and other factoids.

The problem is that we don't know if CO2 is the horse or the cart (which came first, CO2 or warming).  Pro-global-warming people will post graphs proving that the cart comes first.  Anti-global-warming people will post the same graphs proving that the horse comes first.

> What I don't believe is that anyone's demonstrated a way to stop this or that it has anything to do with us.

Even more to the point, should humans try to stop it?  If it is natural, then we are mucking with mother nature.  If it is anthropogenic, then we need to stop the cause, rather than treating the symptoms and let mother nature fix herself.  (In other words, instead of covering glaciers to keep them from melting, why not stop XYZ that causes the glaciers to melt in the first place... assuming XYZ leads to anthropogenic climate change.)

> But I believe that the current climate cycle is part of a wholly natural shift that is and always has been taking place on this planet.

I take a careful position on this.  I believe, based upon historic evidence, that the Earth's climate would be warming right now even if humans were not present.  I also have little doubt that mankind impacts the climate.  What I cannot decide, and what has not been proven (in my non-expert opinion), is how much, if any, mankind's impact on the climate alters normal dynamic climate change.

What really annoys me is the militant attitude the global warming crowd (both professional and layman) takes with non-global warming climatologists.  Professional scientists are getting death threats because their research doesn't agree with the global warming crowd.  These same people try to deny the anti-global warming scientists access to climate symposiums.

The global warming issue has been hijacked by politics.  It is no longer a scientific debate, but a political one, much the same way that drug addiction is no longer a medical issue, but a political/criminal issue instead.


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Just another spore in the wind.

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Re: Global Warming. [Re: Seuss]
    #8537360 -

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (the IPCC) is perhaps the largest and most authoritative group to address modern climate change on planet earth. It is composed of large numbers of the scientific community "tasked to evaluate the risk of climate change caused by human activity. The panel was established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), two organizations of the United Nations." The panel bases its conclusions on peer-reviewed and published scientific literature.

The consensus of the IPCC is that:
  • Warming of the climate system is unequivocal.
  • Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (very likely means >90% likelihood) due to the observed increase in anthropogenic (human) greenhouse gas concentrations.
  • The probability that this is caused by natural climatic processes alone is less than 5%.
  • Both past and future anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions will continue to contribute to warming and sea level rise for more than a millennium.



And as far as the relationship between CO2 and climate change is concerned, the greenhouse effect has been well documented and researched for more than a century. In a nutshell, CO2 is being released into the atmosphere in quantities not seen for hundreds of thousands of years. CO2 absorbs infrared radiation, causing an increase in the mean atmospheric temperature. It's possible that an increase in temperature would cause an increase in CO2, though I'm not sure how that would work. And if indeed an increase in temperature leads to an increase in CO2, then that would just be another positive feedback loop to increase the global warming.

Check out the Executive Summary and page 40 (FAQ 9.2) from Ch. 9 of the IPCC's 4th Assessment
Quote:
Human-induced warming of the climate system is widespread. Anthropogenic warming of the climate system can be detected in temperature observations taken at the surface, in the troposphere and in the oceans.


Quote:
It is extremely unlikely (<5%) that the global pattern of warming during the past half century can be explained without external forcing, and very unlikely that it is due to known natural external causes alone. The warming occurred in both the ocean and the atmosphere and took place at a time when natural external forcing factors would likely have produced cooling.

Greenhouse gas forcing has very likely (>90% likelihood) caused most of the observed global warming over the last 50 years. This conclusion takes into account observational and forcing uncertainty, and the possibility that the response to solar forcing could be underestimated by climate models. It is also robust to the use of different climate models, different methods for estimating the responses to external forcing and variations in the analysis technique.



Quote:
It is likely (>66% likelihood) that there has been a substantial anthropogenic contribution to surface temperature increases in every continent except Antarctica since the middle of the 20th century.



--------------------
"What is in us that turns a deaf ear to the cries of human suffering?"

"Belief is a beautiful armor
But makes for the heaviest sword"
- John Mayer

Making the noise "penicillin" is no substitute for actually taking penicillin.

"This country, with its institutions, belongs to the people who inhabit it. Whenever they shall grow weary of the existing government, they can exercise their constitutional right of amending it, or their revolutionary right to dismember or overthrow it." -Abraham Lincoln

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Re: Global Warming. [Re: dblaney]
    #8537368 -

Like I said above, these changes have been happening throughout billions of years absent any human activity.

Why does only this recent change have to be attributed to humans?


--------------------
After one comes, through contact with it's administrators, no longer to cherish greatly the law as a remedy in abuses, then the bottle becomes a sovereign means of direct action.  If you cannot throw it at least you can always drink out of it.  - Ernest Hemingway

If it is life that you feel you are missing I can tell you where to find it.  In the law courts, in business, in government.  There is nothing occurring in the streets. Nothing but a dumbshow composed of the helpless and the impotent.    -Cormac MacCarthy

He who learns must suffer. And even in our sleep pain that cannot forget falls drop by drop upon the heart, and in our own despair, against our will, comes wisdom to us by the awful grace of God.  - Aeschylus

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Re: Global Warming. [Re: Madtowntripper]
    #8537431 -

It's true, greenhouse gases have fluctuated throughout the history of our planet, however, the data is pretty clear that since the industrial revolution, the rapid increase of long-lived greenhouse gases we have seen has been anthropogenic (http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter1.pdf).



Here you can see the dramatic increase of fossil carbon emissions over the past few hundred years.



"This figure shows the variations in concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere during the last 400 thousand years. Throughout most of the record, the largest changes can be related to glacial/interglacial cycles within the current ice age. Although the glacial cycles are most directly caused by changes in the Earth's orbit (i.e. Milankovitch cycles), these changes also influence the carbon cycle, which in turn feeds back into the glacial system.

Since the Industrial Revolution, circa 1800, the burning of fossil fuels has caused a dramatic increase of CO2 in the atmosphere, reaching levels unprecedented in the last 400 thousand years. This increase has been implicated as a primary cause of global warming."

This recent change has to be attributed to humans because it is the result of human activity.


--------------------
"What is in us that turns a deaf ear to the cries of human suffering?"

"Belief is a beautiful armor
But makes for the heaviest sword"
- John Mayer

Making the noise "penicillin" is no substitute for actually taking penicillin.

"This country, with its institutions, belongs to the people who inhabit it. Whenever they shall grow weary of the existing government, they can exercise their constitutional right of amending it, or their revolutionary right to dismember or overthrow it." -Abraham Lincoln

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Re: Global Warming. [Re: dblaney]
    #8537484 -

Absolutely not.

Human activity has undoubtedly added CO2 to the atmosphere that was previously contained in environmental sinks.

But saying that is causing any warming we have now, WITH NO REGARD for any other natural process' which, as I've stated, have been occurring for billions of years w/out human intervention is ignorant.

How do you know the two are not completely coincidental?  The fact that these changes have been happening thousands of times in the past in the absence of human-introduced CO2 should tell you there are other possible ways to heat the Earth.


--------------------
After one comes, through contact with it's administrators, no longer to cherish greatly the law as a remedy in abuses, then the bottle becomes a sovereign means of direct action.  If you cannot throw it at least you can always drink out of it.  - Ernest Hemingway

If it is life that you feel you are missing I can tell you where to find it.  In the law courts, in business, in government.  There is nothing occurring in the streets. Nothing but a dumbshow composed of the helpless and the impotent.    -Cormac MacCarthy

He who learns must suffer. And even in our sleep pain that cannot forget falls drop by drop upon the heart, and in our own despair, against our will, comes wisdom to us by the awful grace of God.  - Aeschylus

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Re: Global Warming. [Re: Madtowntripper]
    #8537567 -

It should tell someone that.  When there's money to be made, though, watch out.


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Re: Global Warming. [Re: dblaney]
    #8537575 -

You guys got a choice... drop the science and start talking policy or see this thread sent off to the Science and Technology forum. Up to you.





Phred


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Re: Global Warming. [Re: Madtowntripper]
    #8537597 -

But saying that is causing any warming we have now, WITH NO REGARD for any other natural process' which, as I've stated, have been occurring for billions of years w/out human intervention is ignorant.

"Other natural processes." Okay, these could include solar forcing, the release of carbon and methane from arctic tundra & wetlands, massive volcanic eruptions, changes in the earth's orbit or orientation towards the sun, and explosions from large meteors hitting the earth. (am i forgetting anything?)

Solar forcing:
Quote:
A few papers suggest that the Sun's contribution may have been underestimated. Two researchers at Duke University, Bruce West and Nicola Scafetta, have estimated that the Sun may have contributed about 45–50% of the increase in the average global surface temperature over the period 1900–2000, and about 25–35% between 1980 and 2000. A paper by Peter Stott and other researchers suggests that climate models overestimate the relative effect of greenhouse gases compared to solar forcing; they also suggest that the cooling effects of volcanic dust and sulfate aerosols have been underestimated. They nevertheless conclude that even with an enhanced climate sensitivity to solar forcing, most of the warming since the mid-20th century is likely attributable to the increases in greenhouse gases.


The release of carbon and methane from permafrost sinks:
This definitely adds to the global climate change. However, these compounds have been locked away in the permafrost for over 10,000 years. They don't just get spontaneously released. There are two things that are releasing them: human development in regions near the permafrost, and the increase in global temperature from post-industrial revolution human greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, although this is a 'natural' source, it is being added to the atmosphere because of human activity.

Massive volcanic eruptions:
Check it out: http://www.volcano.si.edu/world/largeeruptions.cfm. There does not seem to have been any drastic increase in volcanic eruptions in millenia.

Changes in earth's orbit (orbital forcing) or orientation to sun:
The data from orbital forcing suggest that the earth should in fact be in a cooling cycle right now.

Check out Crowley's page here: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/crowley.html, for a fairly comprehensive look at natural causes of climate change.


--------------------
"What is in us that turns a deaf ear to the cries of human suffering?"

"Belief is a beautiful armor
But makes for the heaviest sword"
- John Mayer

Making the noise "penicillin" is no substitute for actually taking penicillin.

"This country, with its institutions, belongs to the people who inhabit it. Whenever they shall grow weary of the existing government, they can exercise their constitutional right of amending it, or their revolutionary right to dismember or overthrow it." -Abraham Lincoln

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Re: Global Warming. [Re: Phred]
    #8537716 -

Phred said:
You guys got a choice... drop the science and start talking policy or see this thread sent off to the Science and Technology forum. Up to you.





Phred


There have been a number of climate change threads on this board that seem much better suited for science and technology. I'm not entirely sure why they've been posted here in the first place.


--------------------
"What is in us that turns a deaf ear to the cries of human suffering?"

"Belief is a beautiful armor
But makes for the heaviest sword"
- John Mayer

Making the noise "penicillin" is no substitute for actually taking penicillin.

"This country, with its institutions, belongs to the people who inhabit it. Whenever they shall grow weary of the existing government, they can exercise their constitutional right of amending it, or their revolutionary right to dismember or overthrow it." -Abraham Lincoln

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Re: Global Warming. [Re: dblaney]
    #8537785 -

> The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

The politics panel blah blah blah blah ...

Exactly the problem I was trying to illustrate with my previous post.

Quote:
The global warming issue has been hijacked by politics.  It is no longer a scientific debate, but a political one, much the same way that drug addiction is no longer a medical issue, but a political/criminal issue instead.


The fact that this post is in political discussion rather than science & tech yet again illustrates my point.  The "global warming" science is no more legitimate than the "war on drugs" science.  Politics, not science, drives both.


--------------------
Just another spore in the wind.

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Re: Global Warming. [Re: Seuss]
    #8537793 -

There was a "War on Drugs" Science?


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Re: Global Warming. [Re: Phred]
    #8537802 -

Phred said:
You guys got a choice... drop the science and start talking policy or see this thread sent off to the Science and Technology forum. Up to you.





Phred


Ugh.  Just don't click on the thread again if the content is that objectionable to you.  Some things are neither fish nor fowl, politics or science, and are in fact some combination of both.

This conversation is likely to vacillate back and forth between the two discussions, and moving it to Sci&Tech would leave it just as out of place there.

Again, if you don't want to read about it, don't click on it.  But don't move everything you don't want to hear about.


--------------------
After one comes, through contact with it's administrators, no longer to cherish greatly the law as a remedy in abuses, then the bottle becomes a sovereign means of direct action.  If you cannot throw it at least you can always drink out of it.  - Ernest Hemingway

If it is life that you feel you are missing I can tell you where to find it.  In the law courts, in business, in government.  There is nothing occurring in the streets. Nothing but a dumbshow composed of the helpless and the impotent.    -Cormac MacCarthy

He who learns must suffer. And even in our sleep pain that cannot forget falls drop by drop upon the heart, and in our own despair, against our will, comes wisdom to us by the awful grace of God.  - Aeschylus

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Re: Global Warming. [Re: Madtowntripper]
    #8537829 -

If it stays on policy, it stays here. If it's going to be another case of "dueling graphs", it's going to Science and Technology.




Phred


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