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OfflineGazzBut
Refraction

Registered: 10/15/02
Posts: 4,770
Loc: London UK
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Milton's NOT So good ideas...
    #4262691 - 06/06/05 07:58 AM (11 years, 9 months ago)

This is a ressurection of an old post by our old buddy Alex123, (wonder where he's got to??) Link None of Milton's supporters were able to defend the criticisms levelled against him in the article first time around so I thought I'd let them have another crack!!!

Tinker Bell Pinochet and the Fairy Tale Miracle of Chile
The London Observer

SAO PAULO - Cinderella's Fairy Godmother, Tinker Bell and Senator Augusto Pinochet have much in common.

All three performed magical good deeds. In the case of Pinochet, he is universally credited with the Miracle of Chile, the wildly successful experiment in free markets, privatisation, de-regulation and union-free economic expansion whose laissez-faire seeds have spread from Santiago to Surrey, from Valparaiso to Virginia.

But Cinderella's pumpkin did not really turn into a coach. The Miracle of Chile, too, is just another fairy tale. The claim that General Pinochet begot an economic powerhouse is one of those utterances, like "Labour's ethical foreign policy," whose truth rests entirely on its repetition.

Chile can claim some economic success. But that is the work of Salvador Allende - who saved his nation, miraculously, a decade after his death.

In 1973, the year the General seized the government, Chile's unemployment rate was 4.3%. In 1983, after ten years of free-market modernisation, unemployment reached 22%. Real wages declined by 40% under military rule.

In 1970, 20% of Chile's population lived in poverty. By 1990, the year "President" Pinochet left office, the number of destitute had doubled to 40%. Quite a miracle.

Pinochet did not destroy Chile's economy all alone. It took nine years of hard work by the most brilliant minds in world academia, a gaggle of Milton Friedman's trainees, the Chicago Boys. Under the spell of their theories, the General abolished the minimum wage, outlawed trade union bargaining rights, privatised the pension system, abolished all taxes on wealth and on business profits, slashed public employment, privatised 212 state industries and 66 banks and ran a fiscal surplus.

Freed of the dead hand of bureaucracy, taxes and union rules, the country took a giant leap forward ... into bankruptcy and depression. After nine years of economics Chicago style, Chile's industry keeled over and died. In 1982 and 1983, GDP dropped 19%. The free-market experiment was kaput, the test tubes shattered. Blood and glass littered the laboratory floor. Yet, with remarkable chutzpa, the mad scientists of Chicago declared success. In the US, President Ronald Reagan's State Department issued a report concluding, "Chile is a casebook study in sound economic management." Milton Friedman himself coined the phrase, "The Miracle of Chile." Friedman's sidekick, economist Art Laffer, preened that Pinochet's Chile was, "a showcase of what supply-side economics can do."

It certainly was. More exactly, Chile was a showcase of de-regulation gone berserk.

The Chicago Boys persuaded the junta that removing restrictions on the nation's banks would free them to attract foreign capital to fund industrial expansion.

Pinochet sold off the state banks - at a 40% discount from book value - and they quickly fell into the hands of two conglomerate empires controlled by speculators Javier Vial and Manuel Cruzat. From their captive banks, Vial and Cruzat siphoned cash to buy up manufacturers - then leveraged these assets with loans from foreign investors panting to get their piece of the state giveaways.

The bank's reserves filled with hollow securities from connected enterprises. Pinochet let the good times roll for the speculators. He was persuaded, as Tony Blair said this month in another context, "Governments should not hinder the logic of the market."

By 1982, the pyramid finance game was up. The Vial and Cruzat "Grupos" defaulted. Industry shut down, private pensions were worthless, the currency swooned. Riots and strikes by a population too hungry and desperate to fear bullets forced Pinochet to reverse course. He booted his beloved Chicago experimentalists. Reluctantly, the General restored the minimum wage and unions' collective bargaining rights. Pinochet, who had previously decimated government ranks, authorized a program to create 500,000 jobs. The equivalent in Britain would be a government program for 4 million workers.

In other words, Chile was pulled from depression by dull old Keynesian remedies, all Franklin Roosevelt, zero Margaret Thatcher. (The junta even instituted what remains today as South America's only law restricting the flow of foreigncapital.)

New Deal tactics rescued Chile from the Panic of 1983, but the nation's long-term recovery and growth since then is the result of - cover the
children's ears - a large dose of socialism.

To save the nation's pension system, Pinochet nationalized banks and industry on a scale unimagined by Communist Allende. The General expropriated at will, offering little or no compensation. While most of these businesses were eventually re-privatised, the state retained ownership of one industry: copper.

For nearly a century, copper has meant Chile and Chile copper. University of Montana metals expert Dr. Janet Finn notes, "Its absurd to describe a nation as a miracle of free enterprise when the engine of the economy remains in government hands." (And not just any government hands. A Pinochet law, still in force, gives the military 10% of state copper revenues.)

Copper has provided 30% to 70% of the nation's export earnings. This is the hard currency which has built today's Chile, the proceeds from the mines seized from Anaconda and Kennecott in 1973 - Allende's posthumous gift to his nation.

Agribusiness is the second locomotive of Chile's economic growth. This also is a legacy of the Allende years. According to Professor Arturo Vasquez of Georgetown University, Washington DC, Allende's land reform, the break-up of feudal estates (which Pinochet could not fully reverse), created a new class of productive tiller-owners, along with corporate and cooperative operators, who now bring in a stream of export earnings to rival copper. "In order to have an economic miracle," says Dr. Vasquez, "maybe you need a socialist government first to commit agrarian reform."

So there we have it. Keynes and Marx, not Friedman, saved Chile.

But the myth of the free-market Miracle persists because it serves a quasi-religious function. Within the faith of the Reaganauts and Thatcherites, Chile provides the necessary genesis fable, the ersatz Eden from which laissez-faire dogma sprang successful and shining.

Half a globe away from Chile, an alternative economic experiment was succeeding quietly and bloodlessly. The southern Indian state of Kerala is the laboratory for the humane development theories of Amartya Sen, this year's winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics. Committed to income re-distribution and universal social services, Kerala built an economy on intensive public education. As the world's most literate state, it earns its hard currency from the export of technical assistance to Gulf nations. If you've heard little or nothing of Sen and Kerala, maybe it is because they pose an annoying challenge to the neoliberal consensus.

This week, the international finance Gang of Four - the World Bank, the IMF, the Inter-American Development Bank and the International Bank for Settlements - offered a $41.5 billion line of credit to Brazil. But before the agencies hand the drowning nation a life preserver, they demand Brazil commit to swallow the economic medicine that nearly killed Chile. You know the list: fire-sale privatisations, flexible labor markets (i.e. union demolition) and deficit reduction through savage cuts in government services and social security.

Here in Sao Paulo, the public is assured these cruel measures will ultimately benefit the average Brazilian. What looks like financial colonialism is sold as the cure-all tested in Chile with miraculous results.

But that miracle was in fact a hoax, a fraud, a fairy tale in which everyone did not live happily ever after.

http://www.gregpalast.com/detail.cfm?artid=16&row=2

Edit: added URL to archived thread.


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Always Smi2le


Edited by GazzBut (06/06/05 08:04 AM)


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OfflineGazzBut
Refraction

Registered: 10/15/02
Posts: 4,770
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Re: Milton's NOT So good ideas... [Re: GazzBut]
    #4262693 - 06/06/05 07:59 AM (11 years, 9 months ago)

Alex also posted this article in the original thread:

It wasn't just the economy of Chile that he helped fuck up..

He may have just hit 90, but Milton Friedman should not be allowed to rest on his far from Nobel laurels

His 90th birthday celebrations began a few weeks ago, but I wonder if any painful self-honesty has been allowed to invade the usually rosy world of Milton Friedman's recollections.

He can pat himself on the back for being the most influential post-war economist in the world. His analyses of economics (he invented 'monetarism'), have been adopted by many governments around the world and for the past 30 years or more John Maynard Keynes' previously dominant liberal theories have been widely derided because of Friedman.

But what did Friedman ever really achieve, apart from international fame and a large following? With his huge reputation and limitless confidence, this little walnut of a chap looks hard to crack - until you press the weak spot, and then he splits wide open.

First of all, he is hailed as a Nobel Laureate in Economics - an aggrandising misnomer which he confirms in his International Who's Who entry. In fact, he was never awarded the Nobel Prize. That great award is specifically given for contributions to physics, chemistry, medicine, literature or peace. Alfred B Nobel did not intend anyone to get one of his prizes for glorified bean-counting.

Friedman is actually the holder of the Bank of Sweden Prize in Economics in Memory of Alfred Nobel, a different award entirely. A central bank's prize for economics is a big thing, of course, and Friedman deserves respect for winning it - even if most recipients have been monetarists.

Anyway,the mark of a good economist, surely, is whether or not the theories work. Friedman's influence has spread so far and so wide that it would be impossible to assess the full effects of his preachings. But there are three truly glaring examples where his theories have played a pivotal part in the government of countries.

His first great coup was Chile. In 1972, a year before Pinochet's military overthrew the elected Allende government, military leaders started working on an economic programme with the help of a group of monetarist economists led by Friedman.

The initial effect, two years after the coup, was a savage depression that cut national output by 15 per cent and wages to below pre-1970 levels. Over the next seven years, per capita GDP grew at 8 per cent in Chile, 40 per cent in the rest of Latin America.

Then came another economic crisis, which cut wages to 14 per cent less than they had been before the coup 10 years earlier. Bankruptcies and foreign debt soared. Unemployment rose to more than 30 per cent. By 1986, per capita consumption was 11 per cent lower than in 1970. Health spending was halved and typhoid, diabetes and hepatitis exploded. Free of health and safety regulations, Santiago became one of the most polluted cities in the world. Chile managed to reduce inflation, from 500 per cent to an average of 25 per cent, but at what cost?

The next two examples are Britain and the US, the two most powerful countries ever to adopt monetarism, which they did simultaneously in 1979. In Britain, the economy instantly sank into a deep recession. Inflation came down but unemployment more than doubled to 12 per cent, while manufacturing output fell 10 per cent and manufacturing investment dropped 30 per cent. In1986, the Bank of England abandoned monetarism.

In America, events mirrored those in Britain until 1982, when the Federal Reserve abruptly abandoned monetarism and reverted to a Keynesian increase in the money supply. Friedman was reportedly furious, but a few months later the American economy was under full steam in a recovery that lasted seven years.

Friedman has been accused by many distinguished economists of tampering with statistics and cutting corners to prove his points. For example, he claims that the Fed exacerbated the Great Depression by causing the money supply to fall. In fact, the money supply fell because bank runs caused 10,000 bank failures, leaving depositors with worthless bank notes no longer backed by gold reserves.

So Friedman actually argues that the Fed should have stepped in and injected enough money into the economy to maintain the money supply. I'm no economist but, er, that would have been interventionist, wouldn't it?

I think, in fairness to an old man, that we should probably gloss over other errors, such as his claim, in 1993, that the US economy would make no progress under Clinton, or his assertion that the euro would never come into being. Let's forgive him, and forget him.

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,6903,796373,00.html


--------------------
Always Smi2le


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OfflineJesusChrist
Son Of God
Registered: 02/19/04
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Re: Milton's NOT So good ideas... [Re: GazzBut]
    #4262763 - 06/06/05 09:41 AM (11 years, 9 months ago)

I saw the Palast byline and I saved myself some time the first time around. You only have so much time in life, and you need to pick your battles wisely. I think Palast is still claiming evidence that George Bush stole both elections and that he has the proof of Ohio. The guy is a fucking wachjob, and if you want to give him respect as an economist that is your right.

A widely held contemporary view of the Chilean economy is that it is a model economy. Allende was a disaster. Palast claims that the work of Salvagor Allende is what saved Chile and made it what it is today. I wonder if anyone else of credibility holds that view.

I guess I have to go back and read up on the specifics of Chile and Allende if you really want to have this fight.


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Tastes just like chicken


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InvisibleLe_Canard
Slightly Nutty

Registered: 05/17/03
Posts: 93,725
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Re: Milton's NOT So good ideas... [Re: GazzBut]
    #4262808 - 06/06/05 10:14 AM (11 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

GazzBut said:

Pinochet did not destroy Chile's economy all alone. It took nine years of hard work by the most brilliant minds in world academia, a gaggle of Milton Friedman's trainees, the Chicago Boys. Under the spell of their theories, the General abolished the minimum wage, outlawed trade union bargaining rights, privatised the pension system, abolished all taxes on wealth and on business profits, slashed public employment, privatised 212 state industries and 66 banks and ran a fiscal surplus.





Sounds like the economic policies of another certain political philosophy a few here seem to advocate....  :rolleyes:


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OfflineProsgeopax
Jaded, yethopeful?

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Re: Milton's NOT So good ideas... [Re: GazzBut]
    #4262847 - 06/06/05 10:37 AM (11 years, 9 months ago)

I am not a big fan of Milton Friedman because he is a monetarist. However, you have to look at the economic developments of Chile in context. Citing a handful of actions which the dictator took which Friedman agreed with, ignoring others which Friedman disagrees with, associating still other actions with Friedman that he wouldn't agree with, while also ignoring the long term economic consequences of his predecessor's actions (how many decades did it take for the Soviet Union to fall from it's bad economic policies?) is myopic and dishonest. Pinochet cherry picked some of the Chicago school boys ideas and neglected others.

For starters, can you provide some evidence of the following?
1) Did Friedman promote the below market sale of government owned assets to well connected friends of the dictator?
2) Is outlawing unions a 'free market' policy and did Friedman promote this?


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Money doesn't grow on trees, but deficits do grow under Bushes.

You can accept, reject, or examine and test any new idea that comes to you. The wise man chooses the third way.
- Tom Willhite

Disclaimer: I reserve the right to change my opinions should I become aware of additional facts, the falsification of information or different perspectives. Articles written by others which I post may not necessarily reflect my opinions in part or in whole, my opinions may be in direct opposition, the topic may be one on which I have yet to formulate an opinion or have doubts about, an article may be posted solely with the intent to stimulate discussion or contemplation.


Edited by Prosgeopax (06/06/05 10:48 AM)


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OfflineProsgeopax
Jaded, yethopeful?

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Re: Milton's NOT So good ideas... [Re: Le_Canard]
    #4262862 - 06/06/05 10:47 AM (11 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

ToiletDuk said:
Sounds like the economic policies of another certain political philosophy a few here seem to advocate....



Selective deregulation in some areas and selling assets at below market prices to the politically connected while increasing government control in other areas including outlawing of union activity in an attempt to manipulate market forces for one's own political advantage are the economic policies of what political philosophy?

Neo-conservatism, right?


--------------------
Money doesn't grow on trees, but deficits do grow under Bushes.

You can accept, reject, or examine and test any new idea that comes to you. The wise man chooses the third way.
- Tom Willhite

Disclaimer: I reserve the right to change my opinions should I become aware of additional facts, the falsification of information or different perspectives. Articles written by others which I post may not necessarily reflect my opinions in part or in whole, my opinions may be in direct opposition, the topic may be one on which I have yet to formulate an opinion or have doubts about, an article may be posted solely with the intent to stimulate discussion or contemplation.


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OfflineTao
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Registered: 09/19/03
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Re: Milton's NOT So good ideas... [Re: GazzBut]
    #4262883 - 06/06/05 10:56 AM (11 years, 9 months ago)

The best economic policy for a industrializing country might not be the best economic policy for a industrialized country.

Furthermore, one cannot deteremine what the 'best' economic policy is based upon one piece of anectdotal evidence--much because of the reasons Prosgeopax put forth--its rarely/never a complete replica of a specific economic ideology.


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Magash's Grain Tek  + Tub-in-Tub Incubator + Magash's PMP + SBP Tek + Dunking = Practically all a newbie grower needs :thumbup:


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InvisibleSilversoul
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Re: Milton's NOT So good ideas... [Re: GazzBut]
    #4263116 - 06/06/05 12:33 PM (11 years, 9 months ago)

Milton Friedman is a very bright man whom I respect, but he's not perfect. However, as Prosgeopax pointed out, you cannot look at all the policy decisions of Pinochet and blame them all on Friedman, when only some of his suggestions were followed. What they should've done in Chile is follow the blueprint for Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, and South Korea's success: first have land reform, and then privatize industries and take down trade barriers and regulations. This maximizes the prosperity for everyone.


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OfflineGazzBut
Refraction

Registered: 10/15/02
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Re: Milton's NOT So good ideas... [Re: Prosgeopax]
    #4263414 - 06/06/05 02:19 PM (11 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

For starters, can you provide some evidence of the following?




Why should I? Where did I say I beleive what the article says?

Can you tell me which actions taken by Pinochet Friedman explicitly disagreed with?

What actions have been associated with Friedman which he wouldnt agree with?


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Always Smi2le


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OfflineProsgeopax
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Registered: 01/28/05
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Re: Milton's NOT So good ideas... [Re: GazzBut]
    #4263916 - 06/06/05 04:07 PM (11 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

GazzBut said:
Why should I? Where did I say I beleive what the article says?



It seems that you have posted an article which paints Mr. Friedman in an unfavorable light by attempting to place guilt upon him for some of the Pinochet regime's actions. Since you posted the article, my natural inclination was to direct my queries to you. You are correct in pointing out that you did not say that you believe what the article says, so please accept my apologies. Please take any questions as rhetorical in nature, presented to prompt others to question the author's view... unless you feel like answering them.

Quote:

Can you tell me which actions taken by Pinochet Friedman explicitly disagreed with?



I see an article that attempts to discredit Mr. Friedman and his ideas by associating them with a mismanaged attempt at economic reforms, by a dictator who selected only those reforms he agreed with from advisers who were associated with the Chicago school. The burden of proof lies with those making the accusations. Did Mr. Friedman direct all the changes? How can he be blamed for the actions of "a gaggle of Milton Friedman's trainees" who were listened to when it suited the dictator, but ignored when it didn't?

Quote:

What actions have been associated with Friedman which he wouldnt agree with?



I specifically asked about two items which I believe were mentioned. If any defenders of the author care to respond, I would like to read their responses.

For the record, I am not a monetarist and I think that the nature of economic 'reforms' as advocated by just about all economists give short shrift to cultural and historical experiences of people subject to said reforms. Those of us who grew up in environments having the Anglo-Saxon traditions of common law and private property (for example) have great advantages not available to those from cultures which have different major influences (such as Spanish colonial rule or former Soviet Block countries). You don't just take a grown man who never swam in his life, throw him into the deep end of the pool and expect him to swim laps and enjoy it.


--------------------
Money doesn't grow on trees, but deficits do grow under Bushes.

You can accept, reject, or examine and test any new idea that comes to you. The wise man chooses the third way.
- Tom Willhite

Disclaimer: I reserve the right to change my opinions should I become aware of additional facts, the falsification of information or different perspectives. Articles written by others which I post may not necessarily reflect my opinions in part or in whole, my opinions may be in direct opposition, the topic may be one on which I have yet to formulate an opinion or have doubts about, an article may be posted solely with the intent to stimulate discussion or contemplation.


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InvisibleLe_Canard
Slightly Nutty

Registered: 05/17/03
Posts: 93,725
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Re: Milton's NOT So good ideas... [Re: Prosgeopax]
    #4263997 - 06/06/05 04:22 PM (11 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

Prosgeopax said:
Quote:

ToiletDuk said:
Sounds like the economic policies of another certain political philosophy a few here seem to advocate....



Selective deregulation in some areas and selling assets at below market prices to the politically connected while increasing government control in other areas including outlawing of union activity in an attempt to manipulate market forces for one's own political advantage are the economic policies of what political philosophy?

Neo-conservatism, right?




Well, if you put it that way, it does stink a bit of Neo-Conservatism....


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InvisibleSoopaX
Criminal DrugAnalyst

Registered: 11/13/04
Posts: 1,690
Re: Milton's NOT So good ideas... [Re: GazzBut]
    #4264036 - 06/06/05 04:28 PM (11 years, 9 months ago)

"Since every single action taken by person X wasn't one-hundred percent accurate and correct, we should disregard his other ideas" - Brilliant logic. Of course, noone has ever been totally right, and I don't think that everyone here thinks that Milton is the second coming of Christ. Myopic award of the day... Gazzbut!


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Jackie Treehorn treats objects like women, man


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OfflineGazzBut
Refraction

Registered: 10/15/02
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Re: Milton's NOT So good ideas... [Re: SoopaX]
    #4266764 - 06/07/05 07:40 AM (11 years, 9 months ago)

Err since you failed to notice that I have offered no opinions on Friedman I think the award should go to you soopa!!

Pay more attention!


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Always Smi2le


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OfflineGazzBut
Refraction

Registered: 10/15/02
Posts: 4,770
Loc: London UK
Last seen: 1 month, 3 days
Re: Milton's NOT So good ideas... [Re: Prosgeopax]
    #4266768 - 06/07/05 07:43 AM (11 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

It seems that you have posted an article which paints Mr. Friedman in an unfavorable light by attempting to place guilt upon him for some of the Pinochet regime's actions. Since you posted the article, my natural inclination was to direct my queries to you.




Its actually a re-post. When I saw the thread on Milton's drug stance it reminded me of this one so I thought I would see if anyone had some valid criticism of the article and you certainly did. Perhaps you werent around the first time this came up?


--------------------
Always Smi2le


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