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Unfolding Nature Shop: Unfolding Nature: Being in the Implicate Order

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Re: Trump allegedly lies & doctors map of hurricane Dorian, to pretend a tweet he sent was not wrong [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #26182826 -

Here's a summary:

Trump was given hurricane forecasts that included Alabama.
Trump Tweeted his concern for the potentially impacted states, including Alabama.
The NWS issued a report saying that Alabama was NOT in the storm's path (I believe they should have added they were "90% sure").
The lamestream media had a field day making fun of Trump.
Trump defended himself.
The media made more fun of Trump for defending himself.

The media's point was to distract people from the real issues that were going on, just like Russiagate did so well.


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I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.

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Re: Trump allegedly lies & doctors map of hurricane Dorian, to pretend a tweet he sent was not wrong [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #26182829 -

Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:
Here's a summary:

Trump was given hurricane forecasts that included Alabama.
Trump Tweeted his concern for the potentially impacted states, including Alabama.
The NWS issued a report saying that Alabama was NOT in the storm's path (I believe they should have added they were "90% sure").
The lamestream media had a field day making fun of Trump.
Trump defended himself.
The media made more fun of Trump for defending himself.

The media's point was to distract people from the real issues that were going on, just like Russiagate did so well.



That’s not a forecast


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Rate me here

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Re: Trump allegedly lies & doctors map of hurricane Dorian, to pretend a tweet he sent was not wrong [Re: Citizen X]
    #26182859 -

Citizen X said:
That’s not a forecast



Call it whatever you want.  Same story.


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.

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Re: Trump allegedly lies & doctors map of hurricane Dorian, to pretend a tweet he sent was not wrong [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #26182886 -

Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:
koods said:
Seriously, what the fuck is wrong with you? The WEATHER FORCASTERS IN ALABAMA WERE WRONG? Did Alabama get hit?



Now you're arguing something completely different while accusing me of arguing in bad faith.

YOU are the one that showed the forecasts going through Alabama.



You linked to it yourself actually...Did you not look at the chart and read the warning at the bottom of the chart? Falcon just likes to argue at this point. Splitting cunthairs to grasp at an argument. Trump tried to change the officially finalized forecast lile a child and falcon is defending him about it.


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Everything is better when it is done ON TOP OF A MOUNTAIN!

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Re: Trump allegedly lies & doctors map of hurricane Dorian, to pretend a tweet he sent was not wrong [Re: koods]
    #26182888 -

Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:
Citizen X said:
That’s not a forecast



Call it whatever you want.  Same story.



No, it’s not the same story. Nowhere on that spaghetti map does it say forecast, prove me wrong.
koods said:
trump doesn’t even know what he’s looking at in this map and doesn’t even read the warning at the bottom that says the map is meant to compliment actual forecasts not replace them. This map was also 3 days old when he decided to make his warning about Alabama.







This is a forecast. You can tell because there’s a single trajectory, and it says forecast


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Rate me here

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Re: Trump allegedly lies & doctors map of hurricane Dorian, to pretend a tweet he sent was not wrong [Re: Citizen X]
    #26182918 -

Spaghetti plots have never been a part of weather service forecasts. The weather service has one official forecast track which is the centerline in a cone of uncertainty.


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NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”

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Re: Trump allegedly lies & doctors map of hurricane Dorian, to pretend a tweet he sent was not wrong [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #26182936 -

Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:
Here's a summary:

Trump was given hurricane forecasts that included Alabama.



You are either lying or are just as ignorant as trump. I know you watched the video of the briefing.

At no point was he given a forecast that included Alabama. You can even tell trump seems to be overly focused on a possibility that the hurricane will continue moving in a straight line (across Florida into the gulf) and he is explicitly told that all the models show the storm going north (turning before reaching Florida and going up the east coast.)


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NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”

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Re: Trump allegedly lies & doctors map of hurricane Dorian, to pretend a tweet he sent was not wrong [Re: koods]
    #26182995 -

koods said:
You are either lying or are just as ignorant as trump. I know you watched the video of the briefing.

At no point was he given a forecast that included Alabama. You can even tell trump seems to be overly focused on a possibility that the hurricane will continue moving in a straight line (across Florida into the gulf) and he is explicitly told that all the models show the storm going north (turning before reaching Florida and going up the east coast.)



I told you this before, but you have selective memory:  your video shows Trump asking "what do you think chances that it goes directly straight, as the original predictions were?"  The answer was "Ya, this is, that's well inside this cone."

You know... the cone of uncertainty that you just said was the forecast.


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.

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Re: Trump allegedly lies & doctors map of hurricane Dorian, to pretend a tweet he sent was not wrong [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #26183051 -

You have to be trolling. Nobody can be this stupid.



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NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”

Edited by koods (09/11/19 11:26 PM)

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Re: Trump allegedly lies & doctors map of hurricane Dorian, to pretend a tweet he sent was not wrong [Re: koods]
    #26183060 -



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NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”

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Re: Trump allegedly lies & doctors map of hurricane Dorian, to pretend a tweet he sent was not wrong [Re: koods]
    #26183068 -

NOAA leadership sent this message to all employees Monday morning.

Quote:
A Message from Craig McLean: Hurricane Dorian and Exceptional Service

This following is the original message Craig McLean, NOAA Research Assistant Administrator, sent to all NOAA Research employees on the morning of Monday, September 9th regarding Hurricane Dorian and its wide-ranging impacts.

Dear Colleagues,

The fierce storm we know as Hurricane Dorian has concluded its ferocious path through the Bahamas and along the U.S. East Coast. Many of you have contributed to the excellent science that has underpinned the forecasts and current understanding of storms such as this one, which accelerated quite rapidly in intensity. The storm also presented challenges in track which improved with enhanced observations. We know that our collective work, from the scientists in the aircraft penetrating the storm, to the scientists deploying the glider picket line, to the modelers and folks working the physics of the storms, across OAR and in our CI'S, and across all NOAA Lines, we are working the problem in order to give the NWS forecasters the best tools we possibly can to keep America and our neighbors safe. Thank you.

During the course of the storm, as I am sure you are aware, there were routine and exceptional expert forecasts, the best possible, issued by the NWS Forecasters. These are remarkable colleagues of ours, who receive our products, use them well, and provide the benefit of their own experience in announcing accurate forecasts accompanied by the distinction of all credible scientists—they sign their work. As I'm sure you also know, there was a complex issue involving the President commenting on the path of the hurricane. The NWS Forecaster(s) corrected any public misunderstanding in an expert and timely way, as they should. There followed, last Friday, an unsigned press release from "NOAA" that inappropriately and incorrectly contradicted the NWS forecaster. My understanding is that this intervention to contradict the forecaster was not based on science but on external factors including reputation and appearance, or simply put, political. Our NOAA Scientific Integrity Policy and Code of Scientific Conduct make clear that all NOAA employees shall approach all scientific activities with honesty, objectively, and completely, without allegiance to individuals, organizations, or ideology. The content of this press release is very concerning as it compromises the ability of NOAA to convey life-saving information necessary to avoid substantial and specific danger to public health and safety. If the public cannot trust our information, or we debase our forecaster's warnings and products, that specific danger arises.

You know that the value of our science is in the complexity of our understanding, our ability to convey that understanding to a wide audience of users of this information, and to establish and sustain the public trust in the truth and legitimacy of that information. Unfortunately, the press release of last Friday violated this trust and violated NOAA's policies of scientific integrity. In my role as Assistant Administrator for Research, and as I continue to administratively serve as Acting Chief Scientist, I am pursuing the potential violations of our NOAA Administrative Order on Scientific Integrity. Thankfully, we have such policies that are independently cited as among the best in the federal community, if not the best. Your NOAA and OAR management and leadership team believes in these policies and principles. I have a responsibility to pursue these truths. I will.

Thank you for your continued excellent work, and your trust. Carry on.

Craig McLean, NOAA Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Assistant AdministratorCraig N. McLean
Assistant Administrator
Oceanic and Atmospheric Research
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration




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NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”

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Re: Trump allegedly lies & doctors map of hurricane Dorian, to pretend a tweet he sent was not wrong [Re: koods]
    #26183088 -

koods said:
You have to be trolling. Nobody can be this stupid.





You post a new picture which hasn't yet been posted and say "You have to be trolling. Nobody can be this stupid"?

How about a little context?  Is this the picture to which the guy responding to Trump said Alabama's well inside this cone?

A link to the photo would be useful.


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.

Edited by Falcon91Wolvrn03 (09/12/19 12:09 AM)

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Re: Trump allegedly lies & doctors map of hurricane Dorian, to pretend a tweet he sent was not wrong [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #26183092 -

Lost cause


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NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”

Edited by koods (09/12/19 12:15 AM)

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Re: Trump allegedly lies & doctors map of hurricane Dorian, to pretend a tweet he sent was not wrong [Re: koods]
    #26183099 -

No context and no link.  If you could show that image was in the room with Trump, you would have a case.


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Re: Trump allegedly lies & doctors map of hurricane Dorian, to pretend a tweet he sent was not wrong [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #26183105 -

Maybe because that is the fucking forecast map the day he received the briefing. You have to be spoon fed everything and you’re still going to wiggle out with some asisine goal post moving.


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NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”

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Re: Trump allegedly lies & doctors map of hurricane Dorian, to pretend a tweet he sent was not wrong [Re: koods]
    #26183109 -

And nobody told trump Alabama was well inside the cone and you know it. Do you lie to frustrate people you are arguing with or do you just not give a shit about being truthful?


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NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”

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Re: Trump allegedly lies & doctors map of hurricane Dorian, to pretend a tweet he sent was not wrong [Re: koods]
    #26183122 -

koods said:
And nobody told trump Alabama was well inside the cone and you know it.



This is from your own video:



Watch from 3:00 on where Trump asks "what do you think chances that it goes directly straight, as the original predictions were?".  The answer was "Ya, this is, that's well inside this cone."

What states would get hit if the hurricane went directly straight through Florida as the original predictions were?  What cone map was being shown?


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.

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Re: Trump allegedly lies & doctors map of hurricane Dorian, to pretend a tweet he sent was not wrong [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #26183131 -

you’re not being honest. I’m done


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NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”

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Re: Trump allegedly lies & doctors map of hurricane Dorian, to pretend a tweet he sent was not wrong [Re: koods]
    #26183333 -

koods said:
you’re not being honest. I’m done



Asking for the context form your latest pic and the link to it because I thought it had potential is not being honest?  Asking what cone Trump was actually shown in the briefing room is not being honest?  Showing the video of what Trump and the weather people actually said is not being honest?  Or not believing everything you say is not being honest?  I wished I knew what you're talking about.


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.

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Re: Trump allegedly lies & doctors map of hurricane Dorian, to pretend a tweet he sent was not wrong [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03] * 2
    #26183628 -

As someone who has studied atmospheric physics & meteorology in general, who has recorded my local weather (wx) phenomenon, precip, temp, etc for the last 40 years, and has helped to refine wording of warning products in concert with NWS personnel, this conversation has been thoroughly exhausting and disheartening to read.

A core mission of the NWS is to accurately & concisely communicate risk to the laypeople of the general public in an easily understood format, thereby building trust for their products in the public sphere. People must trust the NWS products in order for forecasts and warnings to be effective.

The wx community has fought for years against the old tropes about 'aw, the weatherman doesn't know what he's talking about', 'the wxman is NEVER right', etc.  What trump did by undermining an important forecast serves only to work against the development of that very necessary trust in NWS products.

Falcon, trump was wrong to ever mention Alabama at all (unless he did so about five days before his inaccurate tweet).  Having about a ten percent chance of 35 mph wind in a tiny sliver of the state does not in any way necessitate a warning about possibly getting hit (much) harder than expected...it served no reasonable, practical, good purpose and only served to work against the forecasts being produced for the hurricane. 

Trump fucked up, the media predictably reacted (over reacted if you want, IDC and that's not the point), and the administration doubled down while further undermining the science being done by the NWS.  It is a big deal only insofar as eroding trust in NWS products that work to save life, limb, and property of Americans and our neighbors.

Fal, you've misread the spaghetti plots and those plots are not part of the official forecast.  It's ok, nobody expects laypeople to understand spaghetti plots and trump is included in that group that's not expected to understand them.  It's unfortunate that our thirst for info and seeming need to manufacture news has made those plots available for public consumption and I suspect this debacle will cause a rethinking of their availability.

In summary, trump was wrong, the media reacted for a gotcha moment causing the very predictable trump to double and triple down, and that should have been the end of it... unfortunately his ego and admin have now assaulted the scientific integrity of NWS personnel and the products they publish which only serves to make it more likely that the public's safety will be compromised in the future.

Edited by relic (09/12/19 10:43 AM)

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Unfolding Nature Shop: Unfolding Nature: Being in the Implicate Order


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