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Anonymous

what the fuck?
    #1757584 - 07/28/03 11:04 PM (13 years, 4 months ago)


Pentagon's Futures Market Plan Condemned

Senators Condemn Pentagon Futures Market That Would Let Investors Bet on Assassinations, Terrorism

The Associated Press



WASHINGTON July 28 ?
The Pentagon is setting up a stock-market style system in which investors would bet on terror attacks, assassinations and other events in the Middle East. Defense officials hope to gain intelligence and useful predictions while investors who guessed right would win profits.

Two Democratic senators demanded Monday the project be stopped before investors begin registering this week. "The idea of a federal betting parlor on atrocities and terrorism is ridiculous and it's grotesque," Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., said.





The Pentagon office overseeing the program, called the Policy Analysis Market, said it was part of a research effort "to investigate the broadest possible set of new ways to prevent terrorist attacks." It said there would be a re-evaluation before more money was committed.

The market would work this way. Investors would buy and sell futures contracts essentially a series of predictions about what they believe might happen in the Mideast. Holder of a futures contract that came true would collect the proceeds of investors who put money into the market but predicted wrong.

A graphic on the market's Web page showed hypothetical futures contracts in which investors could trade on the likelihood that Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat would be assassinated or Jordanian King Abdullah II would be overthrown.

Although the Web site described the Policy Analysis Market as "a market in the future of the Middle East," the graphic also included the possibility of a North Korea missile attack.

That graphic was apparently removed from the Web site hours after the news conference in which Wyden and fellow Democratic Sen. Byron Dorgan of North Dakota criticizing the market.

Dorgan described it as useless, offensive and "unbelievably stupid."

"Can you imagine if another country set up a betting parlor so that people could go in ... and bet on the assassination of an American political figure, or the overthrow of this institution or that institution?" he said.

According to its Web site, the Policy Analysis Market would be a joint program of the Pentagon's Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, known as DARPA, and two private companies: Net Exchange, a market technologies company, and the Economist Intelligence Unit, the business information arm of the publisher of The Economist magazine.

DARPA has received strong criticism from Congress for its Terrorism Information Awareness program, a computerized surveillance program that has raised privacy concerns. Wyden said the Policy Analysis Market is under retired Adm. John Poindexter, the head of the Terrorism Information Awareness program and, in the 1980s, a key figure in the Iran-Contra scandal.

In its statement Monday, DARPA said that markets offer efficient, effective and timely methods for collecting "dispersed and even hidden information. Futures markets have proven themselves to be good at predicting such things as elections results; they are often better than expert opinions."

The description of the market on its Web site makes it appear similar to a computer-based commodities market. Contracts would be available based on economic health, civil stability, military disposition and U.S. economic and military involvement in Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Turkey.

Contracts would also be available on "global economic and conflict indicators" and specific events, for example U.S. recognition of a Palestinian state.

Traders who believe an event will occur can buy a futures contract. Those who believe the event is unlikely can try to sell a contract. The Web site does not address how much money investors would be likely to put into the market but says analysts would be motivated by the "prospect of profit and at pain of loss" to make accurate predictions.

Registration would begin Friday with trading beginning Oct. 1. The market would initially be limited to 1,000 traders, increasing to at least 10,000 by Jan. 1.

The Web site says government agencies will not be allowed to participate and will not have access to the identities or funds of traders.

The market is a project of a DARPA division called FutureMAP, or "Futures Markets Applied to Prediction." FutureMAP is trying to develop programs that would allow the Defense Department to use market forces to predict future events, according to its Web site.

"The rapid reaction of markets to knowledge held by only a few participants may provide an early warning system to avoid surprise," it said.

It said the markets must offer "compensation that is ethically and legally satisfactory to all sectors involved, while remaining attractive enough to ensure full and continuous participation of individual parties."

Dorgan and Wyden released a letter to Poindexter calling for an immediate end to the program. They noted a May 20 report to lawmakers that cited the possibility of using market forces to predict whether terrorists would attack Israel with biological weapons.

"Surely such a threat should be met with intelligence gathering of the highest quality not by putting the question to individuals betting on an Internet Web site," they said.

Wyden said $600,000 has been spent on the program so far and the Pentagon plans to spend an additional $149,000 this year. The Pentagon has requested $3 million for the program for next year and $5 million for the following year.

Wyden said the Senate version of next year's defense spending bill would cut off money for the program, but the House version would fund it. The two versions will have to be reconciled.




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OfflineGernBlanston
unintended sideeffect

Registered: 05/28/03
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Re: what the fuck? [Re: ]
    #1757712 - 07/28/03 11:40 PM (13 years, 4 months ago)

Jeesus HMS Christ.

This is the most assinine, ballsy misuse of political power I think I've ever even imagined. Unfortunately, this is similar to how the people in the inner circle of Pentagon Geopolitics-cum-big-business have been doing things for years (and if you don't believe me, read this book.

I'm really starting to worry about our future. Even if we do manage to get this administration out of our white house in 15 months, I'm starting to feel like too much damage has already been done.


--------------------
There is no flag large enough to cover the shame of killing innocent people.
  --  Howard Zinn


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OfflineBaby_Hitler
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Re: what the fuck? [Re: GernBlanston]
    #1757743 - 07/28/03 11:50 PM (13 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

Even if we do manage to get this administration out of our white house in 15 months




I betcha a dollar we dont.


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Anonymous

Re: what the fuck? [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #1757798 - 07/29/03 12:02 AM (13 years, 4 months ago)

I'm with you and I bet a hundred.

(see EchoVortex and me in the other thread)


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OfflineGernBlanston
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Re: what the fuck? [Re: ]
    #1757913 - 07/29/03 12:33 AM (13 years, 4 months ago)

Well, I'd bet you and all... but as I've been unemployed (despite 2 degrees and an adequate IQ) for 19 of the last 24 months, I can't really afford the dollar. Much less the hundred.

But remember, folks.. there IS no recession!


--------------------
There is no flag large enough to cover the shame of killing innocent people.
  --  Howard Zinn


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OfflineBaby_Hitler
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Re: what the fuck? [Re: GernBlanston]
    #1757937 - 07/29/03 12:38 AM (13 years, 4 months ago)

You have 2 degrees and can't get a job?

What are they, Philosophy and Theatre?


--------------------


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OfflineGernBlanston
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Re: what the fuck? [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #1757946 - 07/29/03 12:40 AM (13 years, 4 months ago)

lmao :smile:

No.  Get this  Web Site Administration, and Multimedia Development.  Had a great job for 9 months after I graduated.  Got "downsized" - live in an area of the country where the job market in the tech sector disappeared.

And now, the local bookstores and restaurants don't believe I'd work for $7 and hour (and I would - bills gotta get paid) after working in the tech sector, so don't bother to hire me.

So I did what any normal person would do.  I went back to school :smile:


--------------------
There is no flag large enough to cover the shame of killing innocent people.
  --  Howard Zinn


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OfflineBaby_Hitler
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Re: what the fuck? [Re: GernBlanston]
    #1757960 - 07/29/03 12:44 AM (13 years, 4 months ago)

You should consider electromechanical engineering. That way if you can't find a job, you can always just build a robot to steal shit for you.


--------------------


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Offlinemonoamine
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Registered: 09/07/02
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Re: what the fuck? [Re: GernBlanston]
    #1757971 - 07/29/03 12:47 AM (13 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

And now, the local bookstores and restaurants don't believe I'd work for $7 and hour (and I would - bills gotta get paid) after working in the tech sector, so don't bother to hire me.





That's what happened to me. I worked at a dot com (guess what happened to that job?) when I was seventeen (I'm twenty now),so when I go apply for shit jobs,they tell me I'm overqualified and they would rather give it to someone who "needs it".And good jobs-there aren't many openings.So I'm broke as a joke and living at home. I really don't want to,but I'm going to have to take out some loans and go back to school.


--------------------
People think that if you just say the word "hallucinations" it explains everything you want it to explain and eventually whatever it is you can't explain will just go away.It's just a word,it doesn't explain anything...
Douglas Adams


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Anonymous

Re: what the fuck? [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #1757983 - 07/29/03 12:51 AM (13 years, 4 months ago)

Not that it matters at all but your posts sometimes make me laugh my ass off!

And actually I don't really have a hundred I couldn't use. I just know that outcome of the next election and EchoVortex admitted that if our President won he would have bigger problems than 100 bucks could solve.

Isn't that all of us?


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OfflineBaby_Hitler
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Re: what the fuck? [Re: monoamine]
    #1758071 - 07/29/03 01:09 AM (13 years, 4 months ago)

Damn, don't you people know how to lie?

Find some restaurant that went out of business, and say that you worked there.

Mr._M: Alan Greenspan for prez!


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Anonymous

Re: what the fuck? [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #1758095 - 07/29/03 01:21 AM (13 years, 4 months ago)

I'll go there but I think he enjoys the power he has as it is.


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OfflineGernBlanston
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Re: what the fuck? [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #1758106 - 07/29/03 01:24 AM (13 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

Baby_Hitler said:
You should consider electromechanical engineering. That way if you can't find a job, you can always just build a robot to steal shit for you.




That's the best idea I've heard all night!

"Zondar! Go get me a six pack of Pete's Wicked Ale!"
"Zondar! Go nuke the Sallie Mae offices!"
"Zondar! Get me that lube... " Crap.. I always talk a bit too much.

Err... Haven't we gone a bit off-topic?


--------------------
There is no flag large enough to cover the shame of killing innocent people.
  --  Howard Zinn


Edited by GernBlanston (07/29/03 01:25 AM)


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OfflineGazzBut
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Re: what the fuck? [Re: GernBlanston]
    #1759097 - 07/29/03 10:10 AM (13 years, 4 months ago)

Back on topic....

I am absoultely stunned that anyone could come up with an idea such as this!!

So they honestly think this will help them "predict" future terrorist activity??

Only if the terrorists themselves are using the system to make money by betting heavily on things they intend to do, and then the pentagon are helping to fund the fucking terrorists.

The USA gets scarier everyday...



--------------------
Always Smi2le


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Offlinewingnutx
Registered: 09/25/00
Posts: 2,268
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Re: what the fuck? [Re: GazzBut]
    #1759226 - 07/29/03 11:39 AM (13 years, 4 months ago)

heh, they already did that by shorting airline stocks.


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OfflineTheHobbit
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Re: what the fuck? [Re: GazzBut]
    #1759229 - 07/29/03 11:45 AM (13 years, 4 months ago)

Wow, is this for real!?!?!? And doesn't it encourage terrorism for the purposes of winning huge wagers? I think everyone on Earth needs a 5 gram dose right now :smile:


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Offlinewingnutx
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Re: what the fuck? [Re: TheHobbit]
    #1759232 - 07/29/03 11:46 AM (13 years, 4 months ago)

I think at least half of the people need a 230 grain dose.



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Offlinewingnutx
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Re: what the fuck? [Re: ]
    #1759242 - 07/29/03 11:54 AM (13 years, 4 months ago)

Here's something on that:

web page

DARPA DESIGNING TERROR MARKET
John Poindexter, the Pentagon division chief behind the notorious Total Information Awareness mega-database, is at it again. Now, he's heading up an effort to build a kind of stock market for terrorist strikes.

The New York Times reports, "traders bullish on a biological attack on Israel or bearish on the chances of a North Korean missile strike would have the opportunity to bet on the likelihood of such events on a new Internet site" established by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency's (DARPA) Information Awareness Office.

According to the Associated Press, the Pentagon has requested $3 million for the Policy Analysis Market for next year and $5 million for the year after.

THERE'S MORE: "It sounds jaw-droppingly callous, not to mention absurd," notes the San Francisco Chronicle. "But experts say the DARPA-backed Policy Analysis Market is based on a legitimate theory, the Efficient Market Hypothesis, that has a proven track record in predicting outcomes."


Basically, the idea is that the collective consciousness is smarter than any single person. By forcing people to put their money where their mouth is, the wagers help weed out know-nothings and give more weight to the opinions of those in the know.

"Markets are a great way of aggregating information that a lot of different people have," said Eric Zitzewitz, an assistant professor of economics at the Stanford Graduate School of Business. "One of the big issues with intelligence that was gathered before 9/11 was that information wasn't aggregated within the intelligence community. This is directly aimed at addressing that."


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InvisibleEdame
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Registered: 01/14/03
Posts: 1,270
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Re: what the fuck? [Re: wingnutx]
    #1759467 - 07/29/03 01:53 PM (13 years, 4 months ago)

You've got to love the power of global communications, this was only announced yesterday I think, and already the backlash has forced them to reconsider:

Full text (this is a small quote) at the Guardian

Quote:



The Pentagon today said it would abandon plans to create a futures trading market to help predict terrorist attacks and assassinations in the Middle East, after fierce criticism by politicians.

The initiative, called the Policy Analysis Market (Pam), was to allow traders to place money on an online market to back their hunches on, for example, a coup in Jordan or a biological attack on Israel.

After details of the plan were disclosed yesterday, Senate Democratic Leader Thomas Daschle condemned the scheme as "an incentive actually to commit acts of terrorism".




--------------------
The above is an extract from my fictional novel, "The random postings of Edame".
:tongue:

In the beginning was the word. And man could not handle the word, and the hearing of the word, and he asked God to take away his ears so that he might live in peace without having to hear words which might upset his equinamity or corrupt the unblemished purity of his conscience.

And God, hearing this desperate plea from His creation, wrinkled His mighty brow for a moment and then leaned down toward man, beckoning that he should come close so as to hear all that was about to be revealed to him.

"Fuck you," He whispered, and frowned upon the pathetic supplicant before retreating to His heavens.


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Offlinewingnutx
Registered: 09/25/00
Posts: 2,268
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Re: what the fuck? [Re: Edame]
    #1759472 - 07/29/03 01:56 PM (13 years, 4 months ago)

Yeah, that's pretty cool.

That's why most conspiracy theories are so silly.


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