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Re: So if the United States is perpetually in debt ... [Re: memes]
    #8901540 -

I know right god damn gold bugs. He will probably answer with some of that shadowstats bullshit.

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Re: So if the United States is perpetually in debt ... [Re: memes]
    #8901572 -

meams said:
zorbman said:
Basically the US is a paper tiger which will be experiencing a recession soon (if its not here already) followed by a depression which will make the Great Depression look like a picnic. We have canabilized and hollowed out our economy which will impode within the next few years.


damn doomsdayers, always talkin like the world is ending about matters with which you fail to contain a thorough understanding.

Economists are torn right now as to whether or not we are even HEADING towards a recession.  By true definition, we certainly ARE NOT in one.  Regardless, an event that makes the Great Depression look like  "picnic" will NOT happen, or even remotely approach such a state. 

Take off your tinfoil hat.


I'm still waiting for Wiccan to come in and explain everything to us factually (albeit a bit doomsday-esque)


No need to be a jackass. And I'm not a "doomsayer" or anything of the sort. I just look at the mountain of unprecedented debt both corporate, government and private coupled with an economy which will inevitably see reduced growth in the coming years due to high fuel costs and am able to put two and two together. It doesn't take a genius to realize that is a recipe for disaster.

You should ask Wican Seeker where he got the idea for the gold coin in his avatar. :grin:

Btw, I'm not a gold bug- I prefer silver. Gold just makes for a more striking avatar. :wink:


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“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch

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Re: So if the United States is perpetually in debt ... [Re: zorbman]
    #8901592 -

the debt is pretty much bullshit. we have so much money we dont know what to do with it.

national debt includes loans, mortgages, credit card debt etc. being paid on by consumers.

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Re: So if the United States is perpetually in debt ... [Re: Leanin]
    #8901597 -

Debt doesn't matter. Okay. Interesting perspective.

Have you noticed how many tv commercials there are lately advertising credit card refinancing and bankruptcy assistance?


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“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch

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Re: So if the United States is perpetually in debt ... [Re: zorbman]
    #8901603 -

sorry, i suppose my initial comments were a bit jackass-esque.  I just get fueld up when I hear so many people talk about things they don't know about.  You, particularly, seem to have a clue about what you speak of - although I disagree about the recipe for disaster.

I think our national debt is something to keep an eye on, but it is nowhere near a frightening level.  Countries have experienced national debts of 200%+ of their GDP and still done well (i.e. Britain), and our national debt is just 9.2T to our 13+T GDP (less than 70%).

Things aren't as they should be, but they're not going to self-implode.  Our country is in the shape it is now because we are experiencing situations we never have had to think about.  For example, we now have to figure out how shifts in monetary policy affect the housing market.  Never before have we had to consider those transmission mechanisms, because it's never before been a problem. 

Is it a time of uncertainty?  yes.  Is it the dawn of a new age?  Not even close.

Sorry again for my comments in the last post - they were out of line.  This post is a bit more along the lines of what i meant to say.

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Re: So if the United States is perpetually in debt ... [Re: memes]
    #8901651 -

No problem. I get newsletters in the mail all the time from so-called "gold bugs" and conspiracy theorists all the time and they go straight into the trash so I can understand your feelings.

Have you ever read anything by Jim Puplava? He runs the Financial Sense site and also feels hyperinflation is in our future. Although he comes to a different conclusion than yourself and conventional wisdom he backs everything he says with facts. Here are his predictions which he made back in '05:

TEN REASONS FOR HYPERINFLATION

1) Global oil production will peak between 2005-2008. Economic growth ceases to exist as global economies and markets are thrown into chaos and turmoil.

2) The War on Terror escalates into a resource war over oil pitting the great powers the US, China, and Russia in a replay of “The Great Game.”

3) Debt creation and monetization hyperinflates as the government’s deficit spirals out of control with a war and a depression.

4) Foreigners begin to bail out of the dollar setting off a dollar crash.

5) The US puts in place capital controls to corral US and domestic money. The War on Terror will be given as the reason.

6) The government takes over GSEs owning most American mortgages.

Did he call that or what? September 7, 2008.  US Treasury announces Mortgage GSE Takeover:
http://themortgageinsider.net/mortgage-news/us-treasury-annouces-mortgage-gse-takeover-video/

7) A national mortgage bailout bill is passed lengthening mortgage payments in an effort to forestall debt defaults. A new restructuring agency will be set up to repurchase impaired mortgages from the banking system and renegotiate terms of the debt to avoid default. The 100-year mortgage is born.

8) A national retirement security act is passed forcing private pensions to buy long-dated zero-coupon government bonds that will be inflated away. The reason given will be for plan protection against bear markets.

9) As the US economy goes into a hyperinflationary depression the rest of the world’s economies follow suit. Money printing on a grand scale occurs in western and Asian economies as governments wrestle and try to satisfy the demands of a social welfare state and an angry, aging populace.

10) As governments hyperinflate and debase their currencies, gold will take on its true role as money rising in value against all currencies. The world will move towards a global currency backed by gold.

To me the only thing keeping #4 from taking place is right now there is no single currency alternative to the U.S. dollar. One thing I disagree with him on is #10- I don't think there is enough physical gold in existance to back a global currency; it would have to be a multi-metal backed one.


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“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch

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Re: So if the United States is perpetually in debt ... [Re: zorbman]
    #8901802 -

It's not as if we haven't built in a significant amount of flexibility into our budget and government.  Number six is just another example of how we can change direction in just a manner of weeks (which everyone saw coming by the way.  I myself made a LOT of money yesterday).


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Discuss Politics

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Re: So if the United States is perpetually in debt ... [Re: memes]
    #8901899 -

Quote:
I'm still waiting for Wiccan to come in and explain everything to us factually (albeit a bit doomsday-esque)



Thank you for your faith in my explaining abilities, but do people really want to listen? Most people have their stance and seek to defend it. Its rare to see forum posters actually change their minds of their core beliefs.

Money As Debt has been posted quite a few posts up and was ignored. Let me for redundency add to this list.

If anyone is *really* interested in the true story of the years to come, they should set aside a bit of time and watch the following three videos:

THE CRASH COURSE  MONEY AS DEBT ARITHMETIC, POPULATION & ENERGY

Three videos, a very consistent message that cannot be disproven. These vids do not look in the crystal ball much on what might be, instead they focus on what IS. Right Now, and what was before. All of this can be easily verified from the very chair y'all are sitting in now. Keep your mind and a google tab open and chase the shocking alleged truth laid out before you. Chase those factoids and see if they are fact. Connect the dots between the three presentations.

The iceberg has gutted our ocean liner and it in fact is sinking. Alert people like Zorbman and me are already in the lifeboat, encouraging others to do the same. It is irreversible. The ship will sink.


I may be a goldbug, but by convenience. It could be eggs, if they wouldnt spoil over time and weren't impractical to store. Go buy a million eggs today, put them in the time capsule where they dont spoil and sell them ten years on in 2018. See how much money you'd get for it. See if that money would even be the same currency as the one in your wallet today.

The eggs are just eggs. Gold is just gold. What is changing is the collapsing currency. You pay more and more money for the same thing, because money means less and less. Too much of it around, and tomorrow theres even more.

Gold and silver are just practical, they are not "magic bullets".  Look at the prices of anything of value. It ALL goes up. How can EVERYTHING go up? No miracle, if its actually the money itself thats going down.

Watch those videos. Really.


The dollar gaining strength? Sorry to say, its just spasms of a dying currency. What did happen was massive coordinated aggressive buying of dollars and dumping of euros and yen which was planned and shelved in march. Its not te economy recovering, its quite literally beating a dying horse to perform one more feat. Oh and artificially increased need for dollars in China of course.

70 Eurocents for a dollar, a monumental feat. It may be the last spasm of its kind. Its not the dollar picking up, its a (final)  encouragement to place your bets on the roulette table of the stock exchange.

Doomsday FTL.  Because when recession and depression comes, we'll all lose.

And as to dooms"day"  it won't be a day, a sudden cataclysmic event. The US economy won't be hit by a train, it is dying of cancer. Dooms"era" would be more appropriate, and we're in it.


--------------------
Omnicyclion.org
personal empowerment for the world

:nyan: LGBT - Love God Before Tradition :nyan:

Edited by Asante (09/09/08 12:35 PM)

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Re: So if the United States is perpetually in debt ... [Re: Asante]
    #8901931 -

I have a newspaper article somewhere at home talking about whats coming in the future, and explaining in detail exactly how our monetary system works. Its makes allot of wild predictions about both inflation, and the economy in general. Its from a newspaper in the 40's or 50's, and is pretty dead on. Ill see if I can find it when I get home.

Great stuff BTW wiccan:thumbup:


--------------------
The Prophecy!

Learn To Code

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Re: So if the United States is perpetually in debt ... [Re: Asante]
    #8902147 -

Ok, so we might lose our status as a superpower over the next 50 years or some lengthy period of time (20 years minimum), but how is that really going to affect the average joe like me, who is already living with basic needs met only?

At the very minimum, we're still going to have an internal economy with basic needs met.  Food, housing, haircuts, you know.  The military might need more than a couple cuts, but with so many nukes, we should be safe from invasion in the near future.  On the downside, infrastructure may take a hit, roads in particular may fall into disrepair, but with oil running out, that may be a mute point.  I would suggest investing in infrastructure now and renewable energy to lessen that impact (also an example of variable change, that would probably nullify a lot of arguments).  Aside from all that, it would mostly be the super rich that take the hit.  So not as many vacations to Europe and yachts or whatever for them.  Aw well.

I know this is short on factual information, but I had to join in a little on this doomsday speculation by at least trying to guess what the actual effects may be.  Who cares if we have to play on a level playing field with other countries?  It's an inevitability for rich countries/people to spend their money and for balance of wealth to fluctuate.


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Discuss Politics

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Re: So if the United States is perpetually in debt ... [Re: Ferris]
    #8902255 -

A good example of variable change that makes assumptions that our economy will continue to make the same mistakes look iffy



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Discuss Politics

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Re: So if the United States is perpetually in debt ... [Re: Ferris]
    #8902820 -

Quote:
At the very minimum, we're still going to have an internal economy with basic needs met.


Right now a large number of Americans already haven't got  their basic needs met. How many Americans had to foreclose and lost their home in the mortgage crisis? Fanny Mae and Freddy Mac have just been taken over by the government at $25-50 billion to the taxpayers to (hopefully!) prevent housing and mortgages going completely on their ass in the near future.

How many American Shroomerites (better off than many of their countrymen) have no health insurance or other basic insurances?

A great number of Americans are in or at the brink of economic peril right now. How many live on the fragile balance of living paycheck to paycheck? And this fragile balance is about to get messed with. Severely.

Its not the super rich who will be hurting from a recession/depression/hyperinflation scenario, it will be the normal everyday people and those less well off that will be hardest hit.

You presented a graph of Russia's GDP showing an almost fourfold increase over ten years. Statistics like those always bring cheer.

But did net income per household increase fourfold also? What did purchasing power do? How much inflation was there? Is there erosion of services and facilities? Check it out and you'll find that most of that money went into very few pockets - just like it is anywhere in the world.

Lets say Bill 50 billion Gates packs up his bags and decides to live in the African village of Okokok. People are starving in the streets there. Ah, but what do the statistics say? "Citizens of Okokok have an average capital of 50 million dollars per household" "Okokok is the richest village in all of Africa"

On this scale it sounds idiotic. But most economics statistics REALLY are like that. They don't tell the true story, the actual facts. If Bill Gates watches a football game, everybody in that stadium on average is a millionaire. That doesn't help em any, does it? But since everyone on average is a millionaire, why not double the cost of a ticket?  Thats how it works.

Quote:
On the downside, infrastructure may take a hit, roads in particular may fall into disrepair, but with oil running out, that may be a mute point.


With oil running out, what on earth would be going on in the economy by the time road traffic has reduced as much as to offset road disrepair? What would food prices be like?

Quote:
I would suggest investing in infrastructure


You are 57 trillion dollars in debt. With whose money will you finance this extra spending?

Quote:
Who cares if we have to play on a level playing field with other countries?


The average income worldwide is $7.000 a year. Now, do you still want a level playing field with only that level of basic needs met?

And on which side of that average do you want to be? On the Bill Gates side or on the side of lets say a goatherd who never held $5 worth of money in his hands in his life? That $7.000 is an average. Bill gates is in there too so for him theres a few million people worse off in the statistic. Those billions have to come from somewhere, and if you follow the money trail upstream you will find ruthless exploitation of the worlds poor at its end.


--------------------
Omnicyclion.org
personal empowerment for the world

:nyan: LGBT - Love God Before Tradition :nyan:

Edited by Asante (09/09/08 04:11 PM)

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Re: So if the United States is perpetually in debt ... [Re: Asante]
    #8902937 -

First things first, I don't know where you get 57 trillion from.  Last I checked, our debt was in the 9-10T range.  But yes, I suggest investing in infrastructure, because it's an investment.  Much of the military, and to balance across partisan lines, many social services (excluding education, etc), are a one time, instantaneous benefit.  Infrastructure on the other hand will keep on benefiting our standard of living and economies for years to come.

Take Prop 7 in California.  Let's not discuss it's many flaws for now (I've never seen a Californian law without a dozen loopholes).  In short, it requires that 50% of our state's power come from renewable energy sources by 2025 (?).  Now if our economy tanks, the loss of most of our high end service industry isn't going to end up affecting our power consumption.  In fact, it should raise still.  So it will save future costs and ensure that we maintain a certain standard of living while imports and exports are dropping and the economy becomes more internalized and self-sufficient.

The alternative would be to bunker up and spend all our money on government services who's benefits won't last to next year and only give the appearance of prosperity.  At the point where we stop spending on investments such as education, alternative energy/fuel, research, etc, will be the point when we become really screwed.

Yes, I am willing to lower my standard of living further.  You realize that costs will not rise uniformly.  Food will still be affordable, housing will still be affordable.  Any large disparities between countries standards of living are just ignoring the true state of the world, and until they balance out, we can never realize that steps need to be taken in the establishment of population limits, environmental solvency, food production priorities, etc.

I'm prepared for the tank, but we still have a technological advantage, we still have extreme assets, we still have an educated populace.  These will make the difference.


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Discuss Politics

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Re: So if the United States is perpetually in debt ... [Re: Asante]
    #8902948 -

didnt see you in a while Wiccan, how are you? :laugh:


--------------------
Been away so long I hardly knew the place
Gee, it's good to be back home
Leave it till tomorrow to unpack my case
Honey disconnect the phone
I'm back in the USSA
You don't know how lucky you are, boy
Back in the US
Back in the US
Back in the USSA

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Re: So if the United States is perpetually in debt ... [Re: tomnl]
    #8903011 -

I'm fine thank you :smile:

I wanted to see if the Shroomery was a habit or an addiction.
It's a habit :awesome::thumbup:


--------------------
Omnicyclion.org
personal empowerment for the world

:nyan: LGBT - Love God Before Tradition :nyan:

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Re: So if the United States is perpetually in debt ... [Re: Asante]
    #8903072 -

hehe, well great to have you back i always value your opinion.


--------------------
Been away so long I hardly knew the place
Gee, it's good to be back home
Leave it till tomorrow to unpack my case
Honey disconnect the phone
I'm back in the USSA
You don't know how lucky you are, boy
Back in the US
Back in the US
Back in the USSA

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Re: So if the United States is perpetually in debt ... [Re: zorbman]
    #8997799 -

zorbman said:
just look at the mountain of unprecedented debt both corporate, government and private coupled with an economy which will inevitably see reduced growth in the coming years due to high fuel costs and am able to put two and two together. It doesn't take a genius to realize that is a recipe for disaster.


not to mention ALL of the other little things like banks failing, stocks acting strange, inflation, etc.

could ego exist without ignorance?  :confused:


--------------------
http://www.doctorfungus.org

http://www.mushroomexpert.com/

http://www.textbookofbacteriology.net

http://bugs.bio.usyd.edu.au/learning/resources/Mycology/index.html

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Re: So if the United States is perpetually in debt ... [Re: memes]
    #8997863 -

meams said:
I think our national debt is something to keep an eye on, but it is nowhere near a frightening level.


:rofl: Riiiiiight.


But hey, a few minutes have gone by....
Don`t forget to check the one that moves in real time.
http://www.babylontoday.com/national_debt_clock.htm
Please ignore the fact the page is hosted by a group devoted to Christian lunacy.
I only posted the link because it has a debt clock.


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