Quote:

There may be pitchers still shy of their 30th birthday who will work under greater scrutiny (Daisuke Matsuzaka), amid greater expectations (Johan Santana) and greater contract negotiations (Carlos Zambrano). But the pitchers below all have the stuff to give a major lift to the playoff hopes of their respective teams, making them some of the most intriguing pitchers of 2007.

1. Cliff Lee, Indians
The Indians have the makings of the kind of breakout rotation that Chicago had in 2005, that Detroit had last year. They have an established left-hander in C.C. Sabathia, a solid innings-eater in Jake Westbrook, a high-ceiling talent in lefty Jeremy Sowers. Lee could be the missing link to greatness. He had a disappointing first half last year, posting a 4.76 ERA, and his history is that he struggles against the elite teams. Over the last three years, he has a 6.27 ERA against the White Sox, a 6.82 ERA against the Yankees, a 4.99 ERA versus Detroit. He can be better, and if he is, the Indians could have one of the best rotations in the big leagues.

2. Rich Harden, Athletics
He always looks as if he is capable of throwing no-hitters, but Harden simply cannot stay healthy. He's been limited to 174.2 innings over the last two seasons. Last year, Oakland won without him for most of the season, because of its rotation depth. But Barry Zito is gone and has been replaced by reliever Joe Kennedy, and the Athletics must have Harden perform like the front-of-the-rotation pitcher he can be. It will be extremely difficult for Oakland to repeat as division champion without at least 25 starts from Harden.

3. Oliver Perez, Mets
It was only three seasons ago that Perez was among the best left-handers in the game, whiffing 239 in 196 innings. Since then, two pitching coaches have tried and failed to correct the erratic mechanics that have created inconsistent velocity: Sometimes Perez was clocked in the 90s the last couple of years, sometimes in the mid-80s. And he's been pummeled, allowing 231 hits, 138 walks and 43 homers in 215.2 innings. It's not unreasonable to think Perez may have been a one-hit wonder.

Now the Mets, who did not upgrade their rotation with veterans over the winter, are looking for Perez to rediscover his overwhelming stuff again, under the tutelage of pitching coach Rick Peterson. A bounce-back year from Perez might be enough to put the Mets back into the playoffs, considering the strength of New York's everyday lineup and bullpen.

4. Cole Hamels, Phillies
Brett Myers is the No. 1, and Philadelphia has some veterans in the back end of the rotation in Jamie Moyer and Freddy Garcia. But Hamels has the kind of ability, some talent evaluators believe, to quickly ascend into the ranks of the best pitchers in the NL. He has had trouble staying healthy, and he still has just 23 starts in the big leagues. But with his fastball and changeup, Hamels could turn out to be the Phillies' best pitcher.

5. Josh Beckett, Red Sox
The former World Series MVP didn't just struggle a little bit in his adjustment from the NL to the AL. There were weeks when he was flat-out terrible, stubbornly pumping fastballs and surrendering some of the fastest home runs -- the ball seems to clear fences at light speed when Beckett gives up bombs -- in baseball. The 36 homers he allowed more than doubled his career high; only the Twins' Carlos Silva allowed more. His talent is superlative, but he must make the necessary adjustments, particularly because the Red Sox are depending heavily on Beckett and the other members of the Boston rotation to help take the pressure off what could be a shaky bullpen.

6. Felix Hernandez, Mariners
He got serious and got into shape during the offseason, dropping 20 pounds, and it may be that King Felix is poised for the breakout year that has been anticipated. And let's not forget: Today, he is still just 20 years old.

7. Matt Cain, Giants
Success did not come immediately for San Francisco's hard-throwing right-hander, who posted ERAs of 5.28, 4.85 and 5.47 in the first three months of the season. But Cain got rolling by season's end, striking out 99 batters and holding opponents to a .214 average in 99.1 innings after the All-Star break. If the Giants are going to contend in 2007, they must do so on the strength of their rotation. Cain has the ability to lift this team into contender status if he becomes consistently dominant this year.

(Meanwhile, Barry Zito has changed his pitching mechanics, strangely. Bruce Bochy says he'll go along with Zito's change in mechanics "for a little bit." The Giants invested $126 million in Zito, and this has to scare the heck out of them. Apparently, a story in the New York Post may have motivated Zito. Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti jokes that it was a waste of time for him to look at Zito tapes, as Henry Schulman writes.)

8. Jason Jennings, Astros
Roger Clemens is gone for now, Andy Pettitte is gone for good, and Jennings must effectively replace the production of at least one of them. On top of that, Jennings faces the pressure of impending free agency.

The bottom line: Jennings won't get paid substantially, and the Astros won't win, if the former Rockies starter doesn't pitch effectively.

9. Daniel Cabrera, Orioles
It all seems so simple: When his mechanics are right -- when he gets his throwing hand in position early in his delivery -- he throws strikes, and he can be utterly overpowering, as the American League saw again last September. Cabrera threw a one-hitter against the Yankees on Sept. 28, and struck out five.

Nobody will take the Orioles seriously unless they can develop a couple of solid starters behind Erik Bedard. If Cabrera were to somehow realize his full potential and learn to stop his snowballing wildness as it begins, the AL East would have to take the Orioles very seriously.

Within this notebook from Roch Kubatko and Jeff Zrebiec, there is word that Cabrera had eye laser surgery.

10. Chris Young, Padres
The Cardinals got a taste in the playoffs of Young's full talent, getting shut down by the right-hander in Game 3 of the NL Division Series. As one of the few pitchers who can succeed while throwing high fastballs, Young -- with his deceptive, short-armed delivery -- posted a 3.46 ERA in his first season in the NL, striking out 164 in 179.1 innings and holding opponents to a .287 on-base percentage. Now Young is in position to build off his playoff success, at age 27.

---