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OfflineFrankieJustTrypt
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Registered: 01/27/04
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CIA: American global dominance could end in 15 years.
    #3693825 - 01/28/05 04:27 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Who will be the first politician brave enough to declare publicly that the United States is a declining power and that America's leaders must urgently discuss what to do about it? This prognosis of decline comes not (or not only) from leftist scribes rooting for imperialism's downfall, but from the National Intelligence Council?the "center of strategic thinking" inside the U.S. intelligence community.

The NIC's conclusions are starkly presented in a new 119-page document, "Mapping the Global Future: Report of the National Intelligence Council's 2020 Project." It is unclassified and available on the CIA's Web site. The report has received modest press attention the past couple weeks, mainly for its prediction that, in the year 2020, "political Islam" will still be "a potent force." Only a few stories or columns have taken note of its central conclusion:

The likely emergence of China and India ... as new major global players?similar to the advent of a united Germany in the 19th century and a powerful United States in the early 20th century?will transform the geopolitical landscape with impacts potentially as dramatic as those in the previous two centuries.

In this new world, a mere 15 years away, the United States will remain "an important shaper of the international order"?probably the single most powerful country?but its "relative power position" will have "eroded." The new "arriviste powers"?not only China and India, but also Brazil, Indonesia, and perhaps others?will accelerate this erosion by pursuing "strategies designed to exclude or isolate the United States" in order to "force or cajole" us into playing by their rules.

America's current foreign policy is encouraging this trend, the NIC concluded. "U.S. preoccupation with the war on terrorism is largely irrelevant to the security concerns of most Asians," the report states. The authors don't dismiss the importance of the terror war?far from it. But they do write that a "key question" for the future of America's power and influence is whether U.S. policy-makers "can offer Asian states an appealing vision of regional security and order that will rival and perhaps exceed that offered by China." If not, "U.S. disengagement from what matters to U.S. Asian allies would increase the likelihood that they will climb on Beijing's bandwagon and allow China to create its own regional security that excludes the United States."

To the extent that these new powers seek others to emulate, they may look to the European Union, not the United States, as "a model of global and regional governance."

This shift to a multipolar world "will not be painless," the report goes on, "and will hit the middle classes of the developed world in particular" with further outsourcing of jobs and outflow of capital investment. In short, the NIC's forecast involves not merely a recalibration in the balance of world power, but also?as these things do?a loss of wealth, income, and, in every sense of the word, security.

The trends should already be apparent to anyone who reads a newspaper. Not a day goes by without another story about how we're mortgaging our future to the central banks of China and Japan. The U.S. budget deficit, approaching a half-trillion dollars, is financed by their purchase of Treasury notes. The U.S. trade deficit?much of it amassed by the purchase of Chinese-made goods?now exceeds $3 trillion. Meanwhile, China is displacing the United States all across Asia?in trade, investment, education, culture, and tourism. It's also cutting into the trade markets of Latin America. (China is now Chile's No. 1 export market and Brazil's No. 2 trade partner.) Asian engineering students who might once have gone to MIT or Cal Tech are now going to universities in Beijing.

Meanwhile, as the European Union becomes a coherent entity, the dollar's value against the euro has fallen by one-third in the past two years (one-eighth just since September). As the dollar's rate of return declines, currency investors?including those who have been financing our deficit?begin to diversify their holdings. In China, Japan, Russia, and the Middle East, central bankers have been unloading dollars in favor of euros. The Bush policies that have deepened our debt have endangered the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency.

What is the Bush administration doing to alter course or at least cushion the blow? It's hard to say. During Condoleezza Rice's confirmation hearings last week, Sen. Paul Sarbanes, D?Md., raised some questions about the nexus between international economics and political power. Rice referred him to the secretary of the treasury.

The NIC issued the report a few weeks before Bush?s inaugural address, but it serves to dump still more cold water on the lofty fantasy of America delivering freedom to oppressed people everywhere. In Asia, the report states, "present and future leaders are agnostic on the issue of democracy and are more interested in developing what they perceive to be the most effective model of governance." If the president really wanted to spread freedom and democracy around the planet, he would (among other things) need to present America as that "model of governance"?to show the world, by its example, that free democracies are successful and worth emulating. Yet the NIC report paints a world where fewer and fewer people look to America as a model of anything. We can't sell freedom if we can't sell ourselves.


http://slate.com/Default.aspx?id=2112697&


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InvisibleDNKYD
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Registered: 09/24/04
Posts: 12,326
Re: CIA: American global dominance could end in 15 years. [Re: FrankieJustTrypt]
    #3694058 - 01/28/05 05:33 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

The Project for The New American Century already thinks they United States needs to step up and make the case for global dominance. Bush Inc. already use it as their foreign policy.

http://www.newamericancentury.org/


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InvisibleSoopaX
Criminal DrugAnalyst

Registered: 11/13/04
Posts: 1,690
Re: CIA: American global dominance could end in 15 years. [Re: FrankieJustTrypt]
    #3694063 - 01/28/05 05:34 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

So other nations will be more powerful and thus, our total power will be reduced, but we'll still be the most powerful. we won't be LOSING power, it's just that others will be gaining power. I see nothing about "dominance ending in 15 years"
Quote:


In this new world, a mere 15 years away, the United States will remain "an important shaper of the international order"?probably the single most powerful country?but its "relative power position" will have "eroded." The new "arriviste powers"?not only China and India, but also Brazil, Indonesia, and perhaps others?will accelerate this erosion by pursuing "strategies designed to exclude or isolate the United States" in order to "force or cajole" us into playing by their rules.





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OfflineBaby_Hitler
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Re: CIA: American global dominance could end in 15 years. [Re: SoopaX]
    #3694136 - 01/28/05 05:57 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

SoopaX said:
I see nothing about "dominance ending in 15 years"






I bet alot of American politicians don't see it that way. I think most of them are willing to play "dirty pool" and hold everybody else down rather than to lose relative strength.


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Offlined33p
Welcome to Violence

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Re: CIA: American global dominance could end in 15 years. [Re: SoopaX]
    #3694143 - 01/28/05 05:58 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

SoopaX said:
So other nations will be more powerful and thus, our total power will be reduced, but we'll still be the most powerful. we won't be LOSING power, it's just that others will be gaining power. I see nothing about "dominance ending in 15 years"
Quote:


In this new world, a mere 15 years away, the United States will remain "an important shaper of the international order"?probably the single most powerful country?but its "relative power position" will have "eroded." The new "arriviste powers"?not only China and India, but also Brazil, Indonesia, and perhaps others?will accelerate this erosion by pursuing "strategies designed to exclude or isolate the United States" in order to "force or cajole" us into playing by their rules.








And people say OTD is funny, PAL keeps me laughing for hours.


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Registered: 02/11/04
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Re: CIA: American global dominance could end in 15 years. [Re: SoopaX]
    #3694236 - 01/28/05 06:34 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

This thread is somewhat illuminating for the direction it is taking. The initial post is a Slate editorial which includes a quotation of exactly one edited sentence and a few out of context phrases. The initial post does not identify that sentence, which begins "The likely emergence of China and India..." as a quote from the report. With the exception of the few phrases in quotes, everything else is commentary by the Slate writer.

The report in question is 123 Acrobat pages (actual report is slightly less but Acrobat format makes it 123).

On the same page as the cropped sentence we have this:

"Most forecasts indicate that by 2020 China's Gross National Product (GNP) will exceed that of individual Western economic powers except for the United States. India's GNP will have overtaken or be on the threshold of overtaking European economies."

And this:

"Because of the sheer size of China's and India's populations-projected by the US Census Bureau to be 1.4 billion and almost 1.3 billion, respectively-their standard of living need not approach Western levels for these countries to become important economic powers."

Well, duh. As globalization continues apace and countries which abandon repressive practices enter the fray as full partners those with the sheer bulk of 2.5 billion people cannot help but be relatively more influential.

As to who is more likely to feel an erosion of influence we come to this:

"By most measures....an enlarged Europe will be able to increase it's weight on the international scene. Europe's strength could be in providing a model of global and regional governance to the rising powers. (Z interjects: This is a strength? You can export this for profit? Whatever) But aging populations and shrinking workforces in most countries will have an important impact on the continent. Either European countries adapt their workforces, reform their social welfare, education and tax systems, and accommodate growing immigrant populations (chiefly from Muslim countries), or they face a period of protracted economic stasis."

They then point out that Japan is in the same kind of boat.

There is lots more. Read it, or at least some of it, yourselves. It's at http://www.foia.cia.gov/2020/2020.pdf


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OfflinePhred
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Re: CIA: American global dominance could end in 15 years. [Re: zappaisgod]
    #3695427 - 01/28/05 10:27 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

And that's not even mentioning that despite the thread title it's not the CIA saying these things, but the NIC.



pinky


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OfflineCatalysis
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Registered: 04/23/02
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Re: CIA: American global dominance could end in 15 years. [Re: FrankieJustTrypt]
    #3695470 - 01/28/05 10:37 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Thank god, finally some other country can take the burden.  :tongue:


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Offlinericyjo
agent calypso

Registered: 07/22/02
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Re: CIA: American global dominance could end in 15 years. [Re: Catalysis]
    #3695867 - 01/29/05 12:26 AM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Todays bs report brought to you by the following keywords:

likely
potentially
perhaps
likelihood
perceive to be


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InvisibleSoopaX
Criminal DrugAnalyst

Registered: 11/13/04
Posts: 1,690
Re: CIA: American global dominance could end in 15 years. [Re: Phred]
    #3696076 - 01/29/05 01:37 AM (11 years, 10 months ago)

This must be following the Dan Rather Marching Band on the Bullshit Parade.


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Jackie Treehorn treats objects like women, man


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OfflineJesusChrist
Son Of God
Registered: 02/19/04
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Re: CIA: American global dominance could end in 15 years. [Re: SoopaX]
    #3697116 - 01/29/05 08:09 AM (11 years, 10 months ago)

The problem with the end to American dominence isn't our horrible policies of spend spend spend. We are certainly doing our part to hand the baton. The problem is the demographic and socialisitc problems of our system are inherent and even worse in other systems. Europe and Japan are facing the same problems that we have and they are the closest to our standard of living.

I think that Chile will still be an economic example for others to follow in 15 years, and hopefully Iraq will be the new economic engine of the Middle East. They have tremendous potential in the future.

China has made quite a stir in the last decade, but they still peg their currency at an artificially low level to encourage exports. They have volunarily made themselves slaves to the world by selling the products that they make cheaper than they can actually make them. They want to be a global manufacturuing power, so they have this policy that makes sure their products are competitive through currency manipulation. At some point pressure will bear on their economy to unpeg their currency, and that will produce dramatic changes. At another point their government will fall as well. Their people are gaining more and more personal power and freedom, while in contrast their government is getting weaker in relation. What happens in China will be very interesting.

In the end we are all going to hell in a handbasket. I should know, I am Jesus Christ. Sinners.


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OfflineBaby_Hitler
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Re: CIA: American global dominance could end in 15 years. [Re: JesusChrist]
    #3697461 - 01/29/05 10:18 AM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Hey, I'm an American.

People die for my sins every day.


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: CIA: American global dominance could end in 15 years. [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #3697537 - 01/29/05 10:43 AM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Stop sinning


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OfflineBaby_Hitler
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Re: CIA: American global dominance could end in 15 years. [Re: FrankieJustTrypt]
    #3697742 - 01/29/05 12:00 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

I'm up to 50mpg.

I kill fewer people each year than most Americans.


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OfflinePhluck
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Re: CIA: American global dominance could end in 15 years. [Re: ricyjo]
    #3697747 - 01/29/05 12:02 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Todays bs report brought to you by the following keywords:

likely
potentially
perhaps
likelihood
perceive to be


Well, it should be pointed out that anything speculating on what happens in the future should include those worlds, otherwise it goes beyond moronic.


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"I have no valid complaint against hustlers. No rational bitch. But the act of selling is repulsive to me. I harbor a secret urge to whack a salesman in the face, crack his teeth and put red bumps around his eyes." -Hunter S Thompson
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